Liberal Leadership Race

[August1991]

With a wide field, the race is expected to unfold in three parts: A first period before July 1 will focus on signing up new party members to back a bid; a second phase, from July 1 to Oct. 1, will see campaigns trying to win members' backing in delegate-selection meetings; and a third, from Oct. 1 to the Dec. 2 convention vote, will lobby delegates about switching on second and later ballots.

One other technical change -- creating on-line membership signups -- was seen as opening up the race, after Mr. Martin's leadership campaign organizers were accused the last time of restricting access to membership forms to keep a lock on their heavy lead.

G & M

Joining is easy! If you’re a Canadian resident, 14 years or older, and do not belong to another federal political party, simply fill out this form to get started.

The information you provide will be forwarded to your provincial or territorial association. They will contact you directly to welcome you to the party.

Liberal Party Web Site

It cost $10 to join the Conservative Party but the Liberal Party web site says nothing about a fee. Let's see how the provincial associations deal with all the junk they receive. And then it will become an issue about who is a member or not.

[Shakeyhands]

It cost $10 to join the Liberal party as well... Says it right on the site.

[August1991]

It cost $10 to join the Liberal party as well... Says it right on the site.

Where? This is all I could find:

Memberships for the Liberal Party of Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Associations will soon be available for purchase online at www.liberal.ca. Proof of payment requirements will be rigidly enforced.

I'll take your word for it. So, it seems now the race is on to sign up new members.

Any word about how members will vote on delegates? And how delegates to the convention will be apportioned by riding?

[Biblio Bibuli]

It cost $10 to join the Liberal party as well... Says it right on the site.

Where? This is all I could find:

Memberships for the Liberal Party of Canada’s Provincial and Territorial Associations will soon be available for purchase online at www.liberal.ca. Proof of payment requirements will be rigidly enforced.

I'll take your word for it. So, it seems now the race is on to sign up new members.

Any word about how members will vote on delegates? And how delegates to the convention will be apportioned by riding?

I'm very interested in this topic & would appreciate any info that any of you can give.

For the first time in my life I'm planning to join a political party ... the Liberals ... just because I am very impressed with Michael Ignatieff. I would even really like to be a delegate for him ... how does one throw one's hat into the ring for this designation?

[August1991]

I'm very interested in this topic & would appreciate any info that any of you can give.

Next to each delegate candidate’s name will be three pieces of information: the name of the leadership candidate they are supporting, whether or not they qualify as a youth delegate, and their gender. This information is needed to make sure that there is proper representation among the delegates.

Each voting member at a riding association DEM votes for one leadership candidate and up to fourteen delegates. The fourteen delegates who are elected at each riding association DEM must included two male youths, two female youths, four adult males, four adult females, and two members of the Senior Liberals Commission (one of whom shall be a man and one of whom shall be a woman).

There will be approximately 850 ex-officio delegates, that is, delegates who do not need to be elected to attend the Convention. All accredited youth, women’s, and seniors clubs can send delegates.

That means there could be up to 4312 elected delegates plus 850 party delegates. As well, there will be Aboriginal delegates.

The 4312 delegates will be selected across Canada on one weekend at the end of September.

I'd say this is going to be an organizing nightmare, and the winner will likely be the one who can organize best. Potential candidates would be wise to lock up ridings where the federal Liberal Party is thin on the ground, Alberta and French Quebec. A new party member in those places will have more heft than a new party member in, say, downtown Toronto.

Liberal Party

[Biblio Bibuli]

The 4312 delegates will be selected across Canada on one weekend at the end of September.

I'd say this is going to be an organizing nightmare, and the winner will likely be the one who can organize best. Potential candidates would be wise to lock up ridings where the federal Liberal Party is thin on the ground, Alberta and French Quebec. A new party member in those places will have more heft than a new party member in, say, downtown Toronto.

Liberal Party

Thanks for the info ... it was very informative.

And you're very correct in your assessment. My riding is Liberal one ... Vancouver Center .... & I'm sure the old guard in the party have the delegates all sewn up. Oh well it could be interesting just to go to one of those delegate elections & who knows ... they could be all Ignatieff supporters by then. At least I'd get a vote for my $10 if that were the case.

[August1991]

My riding is Liberal one ... Vancouver Center .... & I'm sure the old guard in the party have the delegates all sewn up.

A member's vote is still a vote. The difference is that there won't be too many Liberal Party members at the delegate selection meetings in, say, Chicoutimi or Peace River. So members there will be valuable to the leadership campaigns.

Inside the party, rumours have abounded that Ms. Stronach, the wealthy daughter of Frank Stronach and a former executive at his Magna International Inc. auto-parts empire, has several organizers on her payroll. Her office has denied this.

"My understanding is that nobody is being paid" for the leadership campaign, said spokeswoman Maria McClintock.

G & M

The problem here is that Belinda can promise good jobs to senior organizers if she wins and she can promise them good jobs at Magna if she loses.

[cybercoma]

You need $50,000 and can spend up to $3.4 Million on your campaign.

It's a rich person's game, with us peons waiting just to be told what we can and cannot do. Government is not the people anymore, it's by the rich and we're nothing more than vassals.

[Montgomery Burns]

Ashley MacIsaac to run for Liberal Party leadership of Canada

Oh great. More of those "Canadian values" that Paul Martin was talking about.

The drug-addled MacIsaac who enjoys kinky sex acts involving urination with his 16 y/o boyfriend--15 y/o boyfriend according to this article. Additionally, MacIsaac declared bankruptcy. So we know he is not fiscally conservative. Sounds like the perfect liberal candidate.

[Riverwind]

It's a rich person's game, with us peons waiting just to be told what we can and cannot do. Government is not the people anymore, it's by the rich and we're nothing more than vassals.

What would you do to fix the system?

[geoffrey]

I'd say this is going to be an organizing nightmare, and the winner will likely be the one who can organize best. Potential candidates would be wise to lock up ridings where the federal Liberal Party is thin on the ground, Alberta and French Quebec. A new party member in those places will have more heft than a new party member in, say, downtown Toronto.

While a French Quebec candidate would be reasonable, an Alberta candidate will never happen in the liberal party. Most Albertans think the Conservatives are too far left these days.

You'd see a new reform party win a seat here before the liberals ever do, ever again.

[August1991]

While a French Quebec candidate would be reasonable, an Alberta candidate will never happen in the liberal party. Most Albertans think the Conservatives are too far left these days.

I don't mean that there will be a successful Albertan leadership candidate (although I've seen Kinsella's name mentioned).

Rather, there will be some 400 delegates available from Alberta (for example) and since there are few Liberal Party members in Alberta now, it is easier to sell new memberships there and take control of the Albertan delegates selected.

Stronach did that in Quebec in the Conservative leadership race and won a respectable 30% or so overall.

Clearly, this is what the leadership candidates must do between now and 1 July - sign up new members, preferably in ridings where there are not many Liberal members now. To do this, requires local organizers. There are about 100 days between now and 1 July so I would say that the candidates will have to declare within the next few days or weeks at most.

[geoffrey]

Ok I see what your saying August, makes alot of sense to me.

Signing up a person doesn't gaurntee their vote though does it?

[Montgomery Burns]

The Liberal Party of Toronto:

[...] Except that, this Liberal party, the one whose national executive meets this weekend to plan its next leadership convention, is unlike any of its immediate predecessors. Virtually hounded out of Quebec in the last election — and perennially weak in western Canada — the Liberals have all but retreated to become the Liberal Party of Toronto.

Such is the state of Canada’s natural governing party that more than a third of its seats in Parliament now come courtesy of Greater Toronto.

So perhaps it shouldn’t surprise that no fewer than 10 of those considering a leadership bid are from the GTA — among them MPs Ken Dryden, Carolyn Bennett and Maurizio Bevilacqua. Little-known Martha Hall Findlay, a Markham lawyer, has already officially entered the race.

And the acknowledged front-runners? All from the GTA, but with additional twists: former Tory Belinda Stronach, former NDP premier Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, barely back in the country after an academic career in the United States.

Runs to take a shower after linking to the Toronto Star...

[August1991]

Signing up a person doesn't gaurntee their vote though does it?

Good point that poses another problem. The up-to-14 convention delegates from each riding will be identified with a specific candidate (or be identified as independent). This locks the in the delegate's vote for the first voting round at the convention in December.

But new Party members are free to vote for whomever they want when choosing the delegates at the end of September.

This favours a distinct candidate whose personality attracts new members to the party solely because of their candidacy. This might favour Stronach (women's vote) or Rae (unite the Left vote) or Brison (gay vote). Obviously, leadership candidates want to sign up new members who will stay loyal to the candidate.

----

In some ways, we are moving to a US primary system (which, when you think about it, is inevitable). Whoever chooses the delegates, chooses the leader. Delegate selection cannot remain a backroom affair.

Incidentally, I have always admired the British system of letting the party's parliamentary caucus decide the party leadership. A leader requires more than anything the support of caucus. As well, the MP is a democratic representative. Our MPs should be independent, like David Emerson for example.

[geoffrey]

Actually the idea of a parlimentary caucus selection makes alot of sense to me... I'd rather have some people that know these candidates personally vote rather than someone running off media reports and half-facts about them.

That being said, you'd increase the dominance of an 'old boys club' by moving towards that concept.

[Biblio Bibuli]

This might favour Stronach (women's vote) ...

You think women will vote for Stronach because she is a woman? What planet have you been living on for the past zillion years?

[August1991]

This might favour Stronach (women's vote) ...

You think women will vote for Stronach because she is a woman? What planet have you been living on for the past zillion years?

Among the 0.1% of the Canadian population that might potentially join the federal Liberal Party, yes.

If you need more evidence than my opinion, I suggest you do some searches on this forum, on the Internet or take a look at some polls.

[Biblio Bibuli]

This might favour Stronach (women's vote) ...

You think women will vote for Stronach because she is a woman? What planet have you been living on for the past zillion years?

Among the 0.1% of the Canadian population that might potentially join the federal Liberal Party, yes.

If you need more evidence than my opinion, I suggest you do some searches on this forum, on the Internet or take a look at some polls.

I know I know ... it's always said about women (never about men) that women will get the women's vote.

What's puzzling is that, if this is true, how come men are always the leaders in Canada and the U.S.?

Women outnumber men in both these countries, yet we have never had an elected lady Prime Minister, nor have the Americans ever had a lady President.

GO CONDI & Hillary GO! (Which reminds me, do American men yell that should one of these gorgeous ladies win it will be the women's vote that did it?)

[August1991]

I know I know ... it's always said about women (never about men) that women will get the women's vote.

What's puzzling is that, if this is true, how come men are always the leaders in Canada and the U.S.?

We are discussing a party leadership race, not an election. The winning candidate must appeal to a small group in the population, no more than a fraction of one percent. The way the Liberal leadership is designed, it's about signing up new members and getting new people to join the Party.

There are now 97 days remaining for any candidate to get new people to join the federal Liberal Party, and in effect influence the outcome. In about one month, it will be too late (if it isn't now) for a candidate to declare, or at least have an organization in place.

----

We've got several Liberal leadership threads going so I'll post this here.

Potential candidates with even a slim chance of success seem to be Rae, Stronach, Dryden, Dion, Ignatieff, Brison, Kennedy, Coderre.

My opinion? I think Dryden is too dry to be leader, and Brison too slippery. Ignatieff, whom I have heard a few times, is too supercilious. I find his pose as a wiseman irritating.

When I narrow it down, I would say that Rae, Stronach, Ignatieff and Dion have realistic chances. The method of selection favours Stronach.

Dion should win but I think no one wants another Montreal MP for PM. (At least Dion is not a lawyer, and he was born in Quebec City. BTW, Dion's father was the eminent Laval political science professor, Léon Dion. Stéphane Dion got his BA and MA from the same university department where his father was simultaneously a professor. Dion fils then became a professor in the department.)

The quotes below are interesting.

Hargrove seems to want the Liberals to move Left, leaving the NDP to be a radical Leftist faction or rump.

Here's Hargrove on Rae:

“It’s getting more muddled between the Liberals and the NDP today,” he said. “But I think that’s going to change under the new Liberal party. They are going to move further to the left with their new leader, no matter who it is.”

Hargrove said his first choice for a new Liberal Party leader would be former NDP Ontario Premier Bob Rae, who he thinks would be likely to move the party further left. He added that former Conservative and current Liberal MP Belinda Stronach, who is known for being fiscally conservative, would be another strong candidate.

“I think there’s potential for [stronach] to change and recognize, on some of the issues, the importance of the left arguments,” he said.

Queen's Journal

But then, we have this:

As chance would have it, Rae and Hargrove loathe each other. Indeed they loathe each other to such a degree that they would probably be offended their names appear in the same paragraph. That's one progressive coalition that won't happen.

John Gray on the CBC

I like the way Hargrove suggests that Stronach could move on issues and learn the Left arguments. (IOW, Stronach is an empty vessel.)

As I have posted before, I think that Bob Rae would be a horrible choice. I have nothing against the man, but you cannot join a political party just to run for leader.

Jason Cherniak 18 March

Who is Jason Cherniak, and why do I fear he (or people like him) will be future politicians? Such people seem devoid of any quality other than ambition. I suspect rather that future voters will see through this kind of pretense.

[Big Blue Machine]

Since anyone is running whats next? Animal? Sam the Eagle? Beeker? Foozy Bear? Sam Eagle would be great, after winning the liberal leadership race, he would say "you are all weirdos" (just like he did in Great Muppet Caper).

[August1991]

Joan Bryden weighs in with a new take on the Liberal leadership race:

With no one expected to muster more than 50 per cent on the first ballot at the December convention, it will matter less who emerges at the head of the pack than who has the greatest potential for growth on subsequent votes. The last place finisher in each vote is dropped off the ballot and his or her supporters are freed to go elsewhere.

Link

Her conclusion?

Indeed, with no runaway frontrunner, victory is more likely to go to the least disliked candidate than to the most loved.

...

With his ponderous speaking style and imperfect French, the earnest Dryden is not every Liberal's first choice. But he's not seen as having been part of the Martin-Chretien civil war that fractured the party and he's given credit for finally delivering, in only 18 months, on a 12-year Liberal promise to create a national child care program.

And why does Bryden believe this?

The leadership selection process for the federal Liberals is identical to that used twice by provincial cousins in Ontario, where the frontrunner wound up losing to a come-from-behind compromise candidate after multiple ballots.

-----

I think Bryden has a point, but to be credible, the winner will have to do well on the first ballot - which means having an organization in place and signing up party members in the next 90 days or so. Maybe someone who finishes fourth on the first ballot will win, but I suspect not. Trudeau was first through all ballots in 1968. In 1976, Clark was third on the first ballot but won because delegates didn't want Wagner or Mulroney.

In the case of the Liberals now, I don't see a similar scenario arising because all of the likely leaders are equally "outsiders" in their own way.

This is a federal leadership campaign, not a provincial campaign. The Liberal Party has a relatively strong riding presence in about half of the 308 ridings. That means a candidate with a good organization has a good chance of, in effect, locking up many delegates by 1 July.

But Bryden makes a good point. It doesn't look like this will be a single ballot convention. So, who drops off first and where do the delegates of that candidate go?

[Biblio Bibuli]

So, who drops off first and where do the delegates of that candidate go?

Michael Ignatieff's "vision speech" to the U of O students on Thursday should convert many a nonbeliever.

GO MICHAEL GO !!!

[apollo19]

So, who drops off first and where do the delegates of that candidate go?

Michael Ignatieff's "vision speech" to the U of O students on Thursday should convert many a nonbeliever.

GO MICHAEL GO !!!

I am also hoping for Ignatieff, although I hope he does become more flexible and open to the public, as opposed to being a hard-ass professor type. I also find it amusing, as August posted above, that Hargrove sees hope in Stronach. I was a fan of hers until I read this, and now I realize there truly is no hidden mind working in her, and that she merely is a pretty face to be used. On a side note, has anybody here joined the Liberal party to vote in the convention?

[August1991]

Is this true? If so, this means the Liberal leadership race is going to be a mess.

For those unfamiliar with the current Liberal Party membership policy, the membership rules are currently a mish-mash of seemingly contradictory, arbitrary, and random procedures, including:

-Forms cost 25$

-Forms cost 1$

-You become a member for life

-You don't need to have membership in the riding you live in

-You become a member of the provincial party

I won't even begin to get into the variations on the policy for distributing membership forms. The worst thing about the individual provinces setting their own membership policies is that it opens the door for the kind of flagrant abuses and restriction of forms we saw during the last leadership campaign.

Calgary Grit

Calgary Grit claims that federal Liberal Party membership forms will be available online by 3 April. Maybe then we'll have an idea of how the rules will be applied for membership. Grit also notes that this is a good money earner for the Party.

There were apparently 500,000 (?) Liberal Party members just before Martin became leader in 2003. I have no idea how many members there are now. Anyone know?