Pretenders to the Throne

[Kiraly]

From http://www.bourque.org/

Bourque has learned from a variety of sources over the past 48 hours that devisive Liberal alliances are forming throughout the country as Pretenders to the Throne await a dubious election outcome and the rapid fall of Paul Martin's stewardship of the party, should he fail to gain a majority government in this, his second and final kick at the can. To wit, the names of Bevilacqua, Cauchon, McKenna, Manley, Volpe, Brison, Dryden, even, let it be said, ex-Tory Stronach and the American-dipped Ignatieff, among other lesser mortals, all networking their contacts and cobbling standby underground leadership teams ready to activate in the coming weeks, or not, depending on how the stars align for each aspirant. All are sounding out various Liberal rainmakers, regional chieftains, leftover used-to-bes, and ambitious soon-to-bes. Many will be called, some will be chosen, others will be humoured. But the insurmountable evidence now clearly points to a devastatingly fractured Liberal Party, one held together more by a tenuous vernacular than by a robust idealism and altruism that would otherwise stimulate a lethargic political body hungering for vision and leadership.

Well this can't be good for the Martin campaign if some of the party's big names are working on future leadership bids as opposed to focusing on the current election campaign.

[fellowtraveller]

In my opinion, Paul Martin is gone, gone, gone no matter what happens in this election.

He is too old, too tired and carries far too much baggage, baggage that continues to grow.

Six months, maximum, left for Paul Martin.

Frank McKenna is the obvious and likely successor. Quebec is lost to the Liberals for the foreseeable future, so they may as well have an Anglo non-Quebecois that can appeal to the ROC.

I still like Brian Tobin as a dark horse.

Whoever gets the job is going to inherit an unholy and massive headache in a Quebec that is waving goodbye to Canada, and this time they mean it........

[Kiraly]

Quebec is lost to the Liberals for the foreseeable future, so they may as well have an Anglo non-Quebecois that can appeal to the ROC.

I'm not sure about that. I think Quebec has the potential to give the Liberals the biggest gains with the right leader from that province at the helm.

Martin Cauchon, a Chretienite, would be my guess.

[shoop]

At this point you are absolutely right.

The only way Martin could last more than six months is to win a majority. He is more like to lose altogether than to win a majority at this point.

I find Dryden's name on the list the most intriguing. Despite a pretty piss poor job as a minister he has such star power that he can probably attract a lot of people to his side.

In my opinion, Paul Martin is gone, gone, gone no matter what happens in this election.

He is too old, too tired and carries far too much baggage, baggage that continues to grow.

Six months, maximum, left for Paul Martin.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Canuck E Stan]

Martin is the last of his generation in Ottawa.

It's time for younger blood, a leader that can feel the pulse of the Canadian voter much better than what Martin has done.

A fresh face for the Liberals will do wonders for the party after they begin to rebuild on January 24th.

[shoop]

Of course he is the last of his generation, he is 67! The incredible demands of being Prime Minister necessitate that the next PM be much younger.

The question is who will the the new face of the party be.

This leadership race will be a hellacious fight between the Martinites and Chretienites, especially if a candidate emerges with majority support from each respective camp.

Martin is the last of his generation in Ottawa.

It's time for younger blood, a leader that can feel the pulse of the Canadian voter much better than what Martin has done.

A fresh face for the Liberals will do wonders for the party  after they begin to rebuild on January 24th.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[scribblet]

Check out the website below. Some industrious student at Simon Fraser U has put together a beautiful summary of the 2004 election, with historical details and analysis.

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/2004-results.html

In Ontario, the Liberals turned 44.7% of the vote in to 70% of the seats.

Tell me again we live in a democracy. It is no longer possible to have anything other than Liberal governments as the process has been hijacked.

[PocketRocket]

Tell me again we live in a democracy.

Sure, no problem. We live in a democracy.

There you go. Hopefully you're a bit happier now

It is no longer possible to have anything other than Liberal governments as the process has been hijacked.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I wouldn't say that. Mulroney got in because the Liberal leader at that time was particularly NOT noteworthy. Hell, I can't even remember his name.

But Mulroney left such a mess, at least in the public's perception, that the PC's all but disintegrated.

The current batch of Conservatives are still under extreme scrutiny, and there is some suspicion about them.

Whether this stems from the fact that they are a marriage of the old Reform party, and the last remaining dregs of the PC party, or whether it has to do with a lack of experience which often shows in interviews, it's hard to say.

But if they were to field a candidate who actually had appeal and charisma, and some on-camera smarts, I think we'd see a major turn-around.

Unfortunately, they have not fielded such a candidate.

I'd really like to see the Libs out, but at this time, I can't see anyone that I have even the slightest confidence in.

Personally, I am so far completely undecided on this upcoming election.

Where is the Rhino party when you need them???

[Leafless]

scriblett

You wrote:

" It is no longer possible to have anything but Liberal governments as the process has been hijacked."

The Liberal stranglehold on Canadian politics has been known for years.

We know we need electoral reform but nobody is doing much about anything and the stumbling block again appears to be Quebec who would loose out with their own little stanglehold preventing any type of change concerning proportional representation.

[BubberMiley]

Just because you keep losing, you think the whole system needs to change. But if you win the next election, I guess it will all be fine.

[kimmy]

Just because you keep losing, you think the whole system needs to change. But if you win the next election, I guess it will all be fine. 

Hardly.

The deficiencies in the system have been noted by liberals in Alberta, conservatives in Ontario, federalists in Quebec, and NDP voters from coast to coast. The first-past-the-poll system has the effect of exaggerating small differences and making them seem huge. Only 44% of Ontarions voted Liberal, but the get 75% of the seats in Ontario, and leave the rest of the country with the mistaken impression that "those dummies in Ontario always vote Liberal no matter what." More than half of them didn't, but that's not reflected in the electoral map. Almost half of voters in Alberta chose somebody other than a CPC candidate last election, yet 26 of 28 MPs are CPC. Does that seem right? Half of Quebecers voted for a federalist candidate, but only 21 of 75 MPs are federalists. Does that seem right? The best thing that can be said of this past election is that at least the inequities worked both ways... in prior elections that turd Chretien won solid majorities with under 40% of the vote. A minority government at least seems like a fair outcome, even though the process created that result sheerly by accident.

It's *not* fine.

-k

[fellowtraveller]

And Rome burns while Nero fiddles......

I can promise you that this is the second best Christmas the separatists will see in their lifetimes. Their little cheeks are rosy with glee for so many reasons: the upcoming slaughter of the Liberals in Quebec, a new and charismatic PQ leader, a weak minority government in Ottawa (Tory or Liberal, doesn't matter to the Bloc), continued lack of focus on the real issue facing our country - governance.

The very best one will be next year, just before the Quebec elections. That will see a federal system in even worse disarray, a PQ win on the near horizon, a referendum that the PQ wil win , and separation from Canada. Life will get much tougher after that, but ....mission accomplished.

And there is nobody, nobody at all, to speak for Canada. Let's address that, shall we?

[canuckcat]

And Rome burns while Nero fiddles......

I can  promise you that this is the second best Christmas the separatists will see in their lifetimes.  Their little cheeks are rosy with glee for so many reasons

those bastards... i would give money to the Conservative Party of Canada if I thought they could bring home some seats in Quebec... is there no way out of this Faustian bargain we have created in this country?

the upcoming slaughter of the Liberals in Quebec

don't be so sure about that... the Quebec Liberal machine should never be underestimated...

a new and charismatic PQ leader

he ain't all that... if he is good at taking direction from the backroom boys, then the separatists may get lucky... Quebec has been running under a false economy for years... Quebecers aren't stupid... nobody likes hard times...

a weak minority government in Ottawa (Tory or Liberal, doesn't matter to the Bloc), continued lack of focus on the real issue facing our country - governance.

Oh but it does matter... it's very unlikely that a Lib/NDP government would yield more power to Quebec... but the CPC/Bloc would be a horror show for Canada. The country is going to take another lurch to the left (it seems to be what the people want )...

The very best one will be next year, just before the Quebec elections.  That will see a federal system in even worse disarray, a PQ win on the near horizon, a referendum that the PQ wil win , and separation from Canada.  Life will get much tougher after that, but ....mission accomplished.

And there is nobody, nobody at all, to speak for Canada.  Let's address that, shall we?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't see it so gloomy... but well said... who will speak for Canada... my beloved country... we cannot let it slip away without a fight...

[Argus]

And Rome burns while Nero fiddles......

I can  promise you that this is the second best Christmas the separatists will see in their lifetimes.  Their little cheeks are rosy with glee for so many reasons

those bastards... i would give money to the Conservative Party of Canada if I thought they could bring home some seats in Quebec... is there no way out of this Faustian bargain we have created in this country?

The Conservatives will never win seats in Quebec without a Quebec leader. Quebecers will not vote for a non-Quebecer if one is available as the leader of another party. And they will not vote for an Anglophone if a Francophone is available

The Conservatives only won big in Quebec when Mulroney, a Quebecer, led the Tory party, and the Liberals were led by an Anglophone non-Quebecer. When the BQ was formed and the Liberals put a French Quebec leader on top the Tories lost all their seats quickly enough.

[Slim MacSquinty]

And Rome burns while Nero fiddles......

I can  promise you that this is the second best Christmas the separatists will see in their lifetimes.  Their little cheeks are rosy with glee for so many reasons: the upcoming slaughter of the Liberals in Quebec, a new and charismatic PQ leader, a weak minority government in Ottawa (Tory or Liberal, doesn't matter to the Bloc), continued lack of focus on the real issue facing our country - governance.

The very best one will be next year, just before the Quebec elections.  That will see a federal system in even worse disarray, a PQ win on the near horizon, a referendum that the PQ wil win , and separation from Canada.  Life will get much tougher after that, but ....mission accomplished.

And there is nobody, nobody at all, to speak for Canada.  Let's address that, shall we?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not necessarily, The scenario you lay out above is mostly true if the Libs return, Quebec, and perhaps Alberta, will take it as an offence that the rest of the country is not listening to them. If Martin is PM again, he has no credibility in Quebec to either try and win for federalism or negotiate their departure. That is precisely why we have to make sure Harper gets in. Quebec would be much happier under his leadership so maybe they would be less inclined to a positive referendum result, and if, and I hope it doesn't happen, they do vote to separate, Quebec will not be negotiating with a Quebecer.

Remember also, prior to the last referendum, Harper wanted the rules clear going in, as such he wrote a bill that later became the Clarity Act, Chretien and the Libs would have nothing to do with it at first. At that time, prior to the Supreme Court's involvement Harper was the only one who properly interpreted the Constitution Act and defended the "rest of Canada"'s rights.

[shoop]

This story looks like it has legs.

This is from Jane Taber's column in today's G&M

The body isn't even warm yet, and already there are at least two senior Liberals -- Frank McKenna and John Manley -- who insiders say are quietly gearing up their leadership campaigns. The fact this is happening is an indication that some Liberals think Paul Martin's campaign is in deep trouble.

Bad, bad news for Dithers et. al. I am sure the other leadership contenders are being a little quieter because they are still in office, or running for office - Ignatieff.

Hopefully Dithers - turn the campaign around speech worked for him today.