Poll gives Liberals commanding lead

[Leafless]

normanchateau

You wrote- " The clever people who are voting CPC or the dumb and ignorant people who are so blind to the truth that they've decided to vote NDP, BQ, liberal, or Green."

Now, now, you don't have to drag the NDP, BQ, or Green into this.

You know that one party that is especially attractive to the dumb and ignorant--Robbing Hood and his Liberal band of corrupt merry clapping seals.

[normanchateau]

normanchateau

You wrote- " The clever people who are voting CPC or the dumb and ignorant people who are so blind to the truth that they've decided to vote NDP, BQ, liberal, or Green."

Now, now, you don't have to drag the NDP, BQ, or Green into this.

You know that one party that is especially attractive to the dumb and ignorant--Robbing Hood and his Liberal  band of corrupt merry clapping seals.

Thanks for clarifying the CPC view that it's the dumb and ignorant who vote Liberal. It's good to know that CPC supporters are far more clever, not to mention morally superior , than the average Canadian who stupidly thinks that Stephen Harper is a social conservative. There's certainly no evidence to support that idea.

[sharkman]

Normie, Normie, Normie.

The hypocrisy in in your post is appalling. 

If you switch CPC with Liberal and get rid of the other parties that is *exactly* how you feel. Your history of posts supports this proposition.

Putting words in the mouths of CPC supporters is sad. Many people are at least listening to Harper now instead of automatically tuning him out. That is all we can ask.

Liberals tend to do this when they no longer have anything uselful to say.

[normanchateau]

SES has now released their 12/08/2005 poll results. Here they are:

Liberals 41%

CPC 26%

NDP 18%

BQ 11%

As I mentioned earlier, Chretien captured 172 seats when he reached 41% in the polls.

And here are the SES 12/08/2005 numbers for Ontario:

Liberals 48%

CPC 28%

NDP 20%

Green 5%

And here are the SES 12/08/2005 numbers for Western Canada, Alberta included:

Liberals 37%

CPC 34%

NDP 25%

Green 5%

There is now NO region of Canada in which Harper is in the lead. I can see only one way in which CPC can get Harper to turn this campaign around. Muzzle him. The less of his personal views he blurts out, the better he'll do.

[scribblet]

Normie, Normie, Normie.

The hypocrisy in in your post is appalling.

If you switch CPC with Liberal and get rid of the other parties that is *exactly* how you feel. Your history of posts supports this proposition.

Putting words in the mouths of CPC supporters is sad. Many people are at least listening to Harper now instead of automatically tuning him out. That is all we can ask.

Liberals tend to do this when they no longer have anything uselful to say.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[/quote

You noticed !!!

[normanchateau]

You noticed !!!

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Those 12/08/2005 polls were sweet. How could I not notice?

[daniel]

Those 12/08/2005 polls were sweet. How could I not notice?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Try not to be too complacent and confident. There's still lots of time to go, especially after New Years day when people will start focussing on the election and when Harper appears to distance himself from his roots even further.

[Argus]

I believe if he would have tried this strategy the media would have immediately started referring to Harper's hidden agenda, and he knew it.

And Harper could have responded with a clear commitment that his gov't would not introduce any legislation nor support any private members bills on the subject.

Why should he? He clearly believes SSM is wrong. Enormous numbers of Canadians believe it is wrong also. Those who are most zealous in their support of SSM are the type, like err, like normanchateau, who would never vote Conservative no matter who was the leader, no matter what their position on SSM. So he doesn't need to care what they want or think or say. Of the remainder of the country, a majority is opposed to SSM. And of those who are sort of in support in a "Sure, why shouldn't they get married" kind of way, a big portion are young people - who never vote anyway.

Granted, the national media is 100 in support of gay marriage, but if they weren't bitching at him about that it would be something else, because they will never support a conservative Prime Minister of any stripe. They despised Mulroney from day one, even though he was no kind of social conservative. And they will despise any other leader of a conservative party, whether they are pro gay, or choice, or whatever.

Harper has to learn that the vast majority of Canadians do not want a social conservative as PM

Do the vast majority of Canadians want a lying, self-righteous, hypocrtical rich boy who has no vision, wastes billions of their tax dolalrs and can't make up his mind on anything? Cause that's what you seem to want.

[Argus]

And do you blame the media for Harper blurting out in BC last week that he opposes decriminalization? In other words, he favours jail time and permanent criminal records for simple possession of a relatively harmless substance.

Can't you go one thread without sniveling about drug criminalization? I'm presuming you are heavily into drugs based on this, and based on the idiocy of many of your posts, but you can at least stick to one thread about it.

[Leader Circle]

SES has now released their 12/08/2005 poll results.  Here they are:

Liberals 41%

CPC 26%

NDP 18%

BQ 11%

As I mentioned earlier, Chretien captured 172 seats when he reached 41% in the polls.

And here are the SES 12/08/2005 numbers for Ontario:

Liberals 48%

CPC 28%

NDP 20%

Green 5%

And here are the SES 12/08/2005 numbers for Western Canada, Alberta included:

Liberals 37%

CPC 34%

NDP 25%

Green 5%

There is now NO region of Canada in which Harper is in the lead. I can see only one way in which CPC can get Harper to turn this campaign around.  Muzzle him.  The less of his personal views he blurts out, the better he'll do.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Polls make me laugh and if you truly buy into them, then you are no better that the idiots doing the polling. I think most pollsters are biased one way or another and when you control the media, who controls many of these same polls, you have a pretty good control of the vote. There is only one problem with this theory, people are opening their eyes. These same pathetic, wishy washy voters that sway to the Liberals when they fear an evil So-con gov't, are now going to vote with their brain this year and support THEIR party. Which is the way it should be. Not, I am going to vote for a corrupt Liberal gov't because I don't want Stephen "Hitler" Harper in power.

The media also likes to put their spin on any poll, whether it be a Lib friendly firm doing the polling or a so-called "national Pollster" who is completely(laugh) unbiased and they make ordinary Canadians think....hmmm.... why would I vote for them, they're going to lose according to the CBC.

I have a friend in Quebec, who flat-out told me he likes the Conservatives, but he feels he'd be throwing away his vote to vote for them, because they have no chance of winning in his riding. This is the kind of attitude that I dislike, because regardless of who is going to win, vote for the party you believe in.

You've got to stand for something or you'll fall for anything!

[Guest eureka]

It will take more than 40% for a majority this time, Norman.

The most interesting thing about this election, so far, is that it is the first in a very long time that has been about issues instead of personalities. Perhaps that is one consequence of a minority government. I hope, but doubt, that it will stay that way.

That gives no better portent for the Conservatives, though, since they have been on the wrong side of the issues that Canadians want dealt with for just as long.

[normanchateau]

Granted, the national media is 100 in support of gay marriage, but if they weren't bitching at him about that it would be something else, because they will never support a conservative Prime Minister of any stripe. They despised Mulroney from day one, even though he was no kind of social conservative. And they will despise any other leader of a conservative party, whether they are pro gay, or choice, or whatever.

Whether the media like them or not, Conservatives have been elected in the past...John Diefenbaker, Joe Clark, Brian Mulroney. Canadians will vote for a Conservative despite the media but they won't vote for a social conservative. Here's my prediction. Following the next election, Harper will resign or CPC will dump him and replace him with a fiscal conservative who is not also a social conservative. That person will go on to become Prime Minister of Canada. People are tired of the Liberals, myself included, but not so tired of them that they want Stephen Harper.

[kimmy]

CTV: Liberal support slipping in Ontario: poll

In the downtown Toronto area encompassed by the 416 area code, the vote would break down as follows (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

    * Liberal: 51 per cent (-5)

    * Conservative: 17 per cent (-3)

    * NDP: 24 per cent (+4)

    * Green: 8 (+4)

When voters in the suburban 905 area code that bounds Toronto were asked the same question, they said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

    * Liberal: 47 per cent (-5)

    * Conservative: 35 per cent (+2)

    * NDP: 10 per cent (-1)

    * Green: 8 per cent (+4)

The Liberals' downward trend continues outside the provincial capital, as seen in the Ontario results that exclude Toronto.

When asked how they'd vote if an election were held right away, voters across the province said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

    * Liberals: 38 per cent (-2)

    * Conservatives: 38 per cent (+3)

    * NDP: 18 per cent (-2)

    * Green: 6 per cent (+1)

In Southwestern Ontario, the Liberals aren't losing support, but the effect is nevertheless approximated by the Conservatives there gained support. On the question of who they'd vote in an election held today, voters in the region said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

    * Liberal: 41 per cent (+1)

    * Conservative: 43 per cent (+9)

    * NDP: 11 per cent (-10)

    * Green: 5 (+/-0)

Globe'n'Mail: Liberal lead hides regional weakness

The Liberal Party's steady lead in the national election polls is masking a series of regional swings that would significantly reduce Paul Martin's minority and leave Canadians with an even more deadlocked Parliament than the last one.

Interesting analysis that suggests the Tories may gain in Ontario, the NDP might gain seats in the GTA and in BC, the Liberals may gain in BC but lose seats in Ontario, and in Quebec...

In Montreal, the Bloc has jumped to 54 per cent from 41 per cent in the June, 2004, election. The Liberals are down 15 percentage points, to 29 per cent.

In both cases, changing voter support could mean the loss of several Liberal seats, Mr. Gregg said. In Montreal, for example, up to eight seats could be in play, including those of Foreign Affairs Minister Pierre Pettigrew, Heritage Minister Liza Frulla and Transport Minister Jean Lapierre.

-k

[shoop]

The polling numbers, especially SES, are quite odd. Why is SES consistently out of step with every other pollster?

For once the national numbers aren't make or break. The regional figures are the key.

Ontario looks like the Liberals will lose about 10 seats, evenly split between the CPC and the NDs. The CPC is doing really well in Southwestern Ontario.

Quebec is looking like a five to ten seat pickup for the Bloc.

The maritimes looks like a walk, although there might be a one-seat pickup.

The CPC looks to net a seat in the Prairies. Sweeping Alberta but losing Palliser in SK.

The ND could pick up two CPC seats on Vancouver Island. Other than that maybe Svend knocks off Hedy Fry, but not much will change in BC.

All this may be enough to give the CPC a plurality of seats...

Interesting analysis that suggests the Tories may gain in Ontario, the NDP might gain seats in the GTA and in BC, the Liberals may gain in BC but lose seats in Ontario, and in Quebec... In Montreal, the Bloc has jumped to 54 per cent from 41 per cent in the June, 2004, election. The Liberals are down 15 percentage points, to 29 per cent.

In both cases, changing voter support could mean the loss of several Liberal seats, Mr. Gregg said. In Montreal, for example, up to eight seats could be in play, including those of Foreign Affairs Minister Pierre Pettigrew, Heritage Minister Liza Frulla and Transport Minister Jean Lapierre.

-k

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[normanchateau]

Latest trendlines.ca seat projections:

Liberals 123

CPC 95

NDP 29

BQ 61

Seems about right given that Liberal support this month has varied, depending on who performed the poll, from 33% to 41% and CPC support in December has varied from 26% to 31%. At least for now, the highest December CPC number, 31, is still below the lowest Liberal number, 33.

[Kiraly]

SES Research Poll

Martinistas: 39%

Conservatives: 30%

15% margin fell to 9% in one day....

...looks like they called a few conservatives yesterday.

[kimmy]

Latest trendlines.ca seat projections:

Liberals 123

CPC  95

NDP  29

BQ    61

Seems about right given that Liberal support this month has varied, depending on who performed the poll,  from 33% to 41% and CPC support in December has varied from 26% to 31%.  At least for now, the highest December CPC number, 31,  is still below the lowest Liberal number, 33.

That seems to agree with what the G'n'M and CTV articles said yesterday... more BQ, more NDP, and an even more fragile minority this time around. If the trendline numbers were put in Parliament, a Liberal/NDP coalition would still be a minority.

-k

[Riverwind]

That seems to agree with what the G'n'M and CTV articles said yesterday... more BQ, more NDP, and an even more fragile minority this time around.  If the trendline numbers were put in Parliament, a Liberal/NDP coalition would still be a minority.

What a nighmare scenario. I wonder how long Harper could last as conservative leader if he gets fewer seats than the last election (Martin would be in trouble too but he would at least would still be the PM). I would bet on an election by June with that configuration.

[Kiraly]

Sparhawk:

Harper would step down and a leadership convention would be held if that scenario were to occur.

[normanchateau]

SES Research Poll

Martinistas: 39%

Conservatives: 30%

15% margin fell to 9% in one day....

...looks like they called a few conservatives yesterday.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thanks for the link. The margin did indeed drop from 15 to 9. This is because the Liberals dropped by an insignificant 2 points, from 41 to 39, and CPC gained an impressive 4 points, at the expense of both the NDP and Liberals.

If you look at the past 4 days on the SES link, you'll see that BQ has been at 11% on each of those days. In the 2004 election, BQ was at 12.4% suggesting that the BQ will either lose a seat or two in Quebec or remain at the same level. SES polls in Quebec suggest that whenever CPC goes above single digits in Quebec, BQ drops below 50%. So any CPC supporter wanting to see the BQ snatch seats from the Liberals better pray for Harper to do even more poorly in his campaign than he has so far.

[Canuck E Stan]

With all the polsters telling us about decided voters, here,s a poll to let us know about undecided voters.

Undecided voters

Almost half are either only leaning towards a party or are undecided. "It's actually about 48 per cent who say they either only have a leaning or they're going to vote but they don't have any idea who they're going to vote for," said Bruce Anderson, CEO of Decima Research.

Decima is running an on-line tracking survey of more than 10,000 people to monitor voting trends. The survey results so far suggest that only 43 per cent of those surveyed say they know how they'll vote.

That doesn't say much for all the polls being presented lately.

[normanchateau]

With all the polsters telling us about decided voters, here,s a poll to let us know about undecided voters.

Undecided voters

Thanks for the link. It points out, in the last sentence, that 25% of the current NDP support could go to the Liberals by election time.

[shoop]

Today, December 11th. The numbers are looking better.

Liberals: 39%

CPC: 32%

That means the Conservatives have gone from 26% to 32% in two days. So the 15% margin fell to 7% in two days!

Were that many Canadians impressed by the Cancer announcement? Or maybe there are methodological issues with SES...

SES Research Poll

Martinistas: 39%

Conservatives: 30%

15% margin fell to 9% in one day....

...looks like they called a few conservatives yesterday.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Riverwind]

That means the Conservatives have gone from 26% to 32% in two days. So the 15% margin fell to 7% in two days!

Heard a great discussion of polls on CBC today. Apparently, it is possible to swing the Liberal vote by as much as 5% if you ask questions about Gomery before you ask people what party they support.

In other words, polls numbers don't mean much unless you understand all of the biases that went into developing a specific poll.

[Kiraly]

I think the increase in Conservative support and decrease in Liberal support on the 9th is most contributable to the December 6, 2005 polling results being discarded from the overall numbers.

On this day, the Liberal numbers went up by 3 points, which is quite a shift from one day to the next. So I don't think anything occurred to increase Conservative support on the 9th - only that the lower numbers three days prior were discarded.

What I am curious to see is if the margin will now continue to decrease post-handgun ban annoucement.

I know two people who will now be voting Conservative as a result of Martin's annoucement. I wonder how many others there are.