Poll gives Liberals commanding lead

[normanchateau]

Here are the results of the llatest Leger poll:

Liberals 39%

CPC 27%

NDP 16%

BQ 12%

Source:

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Election/2...08/1344640.html

Interesting numbers in light of the fact that Jean Chretien formed a majority government with 155 Liberal seats in 1997 when the numbers were as follows:

Liberals 38.5%

REFORM 19.4%

Progressive Conservative 18.8%

ndp 11%

[Vancouver King]

Here are the results of the llatest Leger poll:

Liberals 39%

CPC 27%

NDP 16%

BQ 12%

Source:

http://www.edmontonsun.com/News/Election/2...08/1344640.html

Interesting numbers in light of the fact that Jean Chretien formed a majority government with 155 Liberal seats in 1997 when the numbers were as follows:

Liberals 38.5%

REFORM 19.4%

Progressive Conservative 18.8%

ndp 11%

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Hello, Norman. I was astonished to read those numbers today after Harper put up a respectable first week. Urban Ontario seems to have made it's mind up early in the campaign and frankly, I can't imagine any event that is going to turn such a lead around.

Painful as it must be, the majority in this forum had better prepare for the worst.

[Riverwind]

Hello, Norman. I was astonished to read those numbers today after Harper put up a respectable first week. Urban Ontario seems to have made it's mind up early in the campaign and frankly,

If these numbers hold up then I would put the blame on Harper's pronoucements on SSM. Most people do not care about the issue per se but the fact that Harper went out of his way so early in the campaign to make an issue of it cemented his image as a Bush style social conservative which many urban voters intensely dislike.

It is possible this effect will wear off by christmas and Harper will end up looking like a brilliant strategist for dealing with it early in the campaign.

[August1991]

Urban Ontario seems to have made it's mind up early in the campaign and frankly, I can't imagine any event that is going to turn such a lead around.

I see very few signs posted for candidates in Montreal. I suspect that many people are not paying much attention to the campaign.

Interesting numbers in light of the fact that Jean Chretien formed a majority government with 155 Liberal seats in 1997 when the numbers were as follows:

Liberals 38.5%

REFORM 19.4%

Progressive Conservative 18.8%

ndp 11%

In that election, the "right" was split between the PCs and the Reform and this benefitted the Liberals. The Liberals will be hard pressed to get a majority with 38% this time.

----

Nevertheless, I agree that Harper's good first week has not shown up in the polls. The Tories are stuck at 30%. The only time they ever really cross that number is when Gomery arises.

BTW, the Liberal cross-Canada numbers fluctuate by a few percentage because of different polling results in Quebec. I'd say the Libs are around 36%.

[Vancouver King]

Hello, Norman. I was astonished to read those numbers today after Harper put up a respectable first week. Urban Ontario seems to have made it's mind up early in the campaign and frankly,

If these numbers hold up then I would put the blame on Harper's pronoucements on SSM. Most people do not care about the issue per se but the fact that Harper went out of his way to make an issue of it cemented his image as a Bush style social conservative which many urban voters intensely dislike.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Maybe he's a victim of his own honesty - he could have declared that SSM was effectively the law of the land and once elected, pulled a Liberal ploy by revisiting the issue early in his mandate. It would not be the first time a politician has said one thing and done another.

[Riverwind]

Maybe he's a victim of his own honesty.

He had another choice: put the issue aside and recognize that there are more important problems facing the country than SSM and that he should forget about it. The fact that he would not/could not set aside his personal beliefs on this matter for the good of the country simply proves to many people that he is a religious ideologue.

One of the reasons I have a lot of respect for Preston Manning is that I believe that he would have voted against an abortion law or for SSM if that is what his constituants wanted even though it would violate his own personal convictions.

[Guest eureka]

Not many signs in my area, either, August.

I don't agree that Harper had a good first week, though. I think he has blown it already. Thosw who think he did seem to be limited to the party support. Take a look at what people think about daycare, for example, It is not the winner that he hoped for. And the GST: people are not so easily fooled and many know that his proposal will do nothing for them.

[normanchateau]

In that election, the "right" was split between the PCs and the Reform and this benefitted the Liberals.  The Liberals will be hard pressed to get a majority with 38% this time.

I agree with you that the Reform/PC split contributed to Chretien obtaining a majority with less than 39% of the popular vote, and therefore it's not sufficient for a Liberal majority if CPC remains at 30%. Note, however, that the numbers suggest a dramatic transition in the nature of the discussion. Previously it was a question of CPC vs Liberal minority. Now the question is Liberal minority vs Liberal majority.

I believe that a Liberal majority is possible if the SES numbers for 12/07/05 hold up. Here they are:

Liberals 40%

CPC 26%

NDP 18%

BQ 11%

And here's how Chretien won an impressive 172 seats in 2000:

Liberals 40.8%

Alliance 25.5%

PC 12.2%

BQ 10.7%

NDP 8.5%

Note that Alliance and CPC numbers are now remarkably similar. This suggests to me that if the Liberals achieve a majority, it's not because Canadians like the Liberals but rather that they see in today's CPC leader, the last leader of the Alliance.

[Argus]

Maybe he's a victim of his own honesty.

He had another choice: put the issue aside and recognize that there are more important problems facing the country than SSM and that he should forget about it. The fact that he would not/could not set aside his personal beliefs on this matter for the good of the country simply proves to many people that he is a religious ideologue.

Get real. There is no way at all that they could put the issue aside. He was asked on the very first day about it. The media would NEVER allow him to put it aside, nor would the Liberals. Had there been no mention at all of SSM you could be sure it was because the Liberals are saving it for later in the campaign. This is almost a phony war now, a prelude to election. This is a very long campaign and the real campaign starts after New Years.

As for the numbers, let's not forget that Kim Campbell was comfortably in the lead in the first week of her campaign, and won 2 seats.

[normanchateau]

Get real. There is no way at all that they could put the issue aside. He was asked on the very first day about it. The media would NEVER allow him to put it aside, nor would the Liberals. Had there been no mention at all of SSM you could be sure it was because the Liberals are saving it for later in the campaign. This is almost a phony war now, a prelude to election. This is a very long campaign and the real campaign starts after New Years.

Get real. The media did not create his position. Harper did. When asked about the issue by the media, Harper could have said that C-38 is a past issue and he will not revisit it. But he chose not to.

And do you blame the media for Harper blurting out in BC last week that he opposes decriminalization? In other words, he favours jail time and permanent criminal records for simple possession of a relatively harmless substance. He could have taken a more rational position. But he chose not to.

[Riverwind]

Get real. There is no way at all that they could put the issue aside. He was asked on the very first day about it. The media would NEVER allow him to put it aside, nor would the Liberals.

Harper was not trapped by the media on this one: he deliberately made a statement when he did not have to. Harper could have made a clear statement that he would not let his gov't get side tracked by a divisive issue like SSM because there are too many other more important issues that need to be addressed. Such a statement would not have to be a lie, would not require him to say that he agrees that SSM is ok, and (most importantly) would have put to issue to rest for the campaign.

As for the numbers, let's not forget that Kim Campbell was comfortably in the lead in the first week of her campaign, and won 2 seats.

Agreed, however, in this campaign I see the vote shifting to which ever side is most likely to get a majority and a early lead for the Liberals is a not good for the CPC.

[scribblet]

Get real. There is no way at all that they could put the issue aside. He was asked on the very first day about it. The media would NEVER allow him to put it aside, nor would the Liberals.

Harper was not trapped by the media on this one: he deliberately made a statement when he did not have to. Harper could have made a clear statement that he would not let his gov't get side tracked by a divisive issue like SSM because there are too many other more important issues that need to be addressed. Such a statement would not have to be a lie, would not require him to say that he agrees that SSM is ok, and (most importantly) would have put to issue to rest for the campaign.

As for the numbers, let's not forget that Kim Campbell was comfortably in the lead in the first week of her campaign, and won 2 seats.

Agreed, however, in this campaign I see the vote shifting to which ever side is most likely to get a majority and a early lead for the Liberals is a not good for the CPC.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Your right, Harper was not trapped by the media, it was a planned announcement, better to get it up front in order to avoid accusations of hidden agendas, but when that doesn't work, then I guess they spin it out anyway they can.

Its the polls during the last week that count, and that depends on the wording, the Liberals are known for the push polling.

[normanchateau]

Your right, Harper was not trapped by the media, it was a planned announcement, better to get it up front in order to avoid accusations of hidden agendas, but when that doesn't work, then I guess they spin it out anyway they can.

Just like his planned announcement for jail time for simple possession.

[normanchateau]

In that election, the "right" was split between the PCs and the Reform and this benefitted the Liberals.  The Liberals will be hard pressed to get a majority with 38% this time.

----

Although I believe that the numbers reported by Leger are not sufficient for a Liberal majority, Hill and Knowlton think otherwise. See:

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/

Here are their seat projections based on this poll released yesterday:

Liberals 159

CPC 72

NDP 24

BQ 52

[sharkman]

Harper was not trapped by the media on this one: he deliberately made a statement when he did not have to. Harper could have made a clear statement that he would not let his gov't get side tracked by a divisive issue like SSM because there are too many other more important issues that need to be addressed. Such a statement would not have to be a lie, would not require him to say that he agrees that SSM is ok, and (most importantly) would have put to issue to rest for the campaign.

I believe if he would have tried this strategy the media would have immediately started referring to Harper's hidden agenda, and he knew it.

On the multitude of poll numbers, its hard to know which to believe, there's much variety in results. Some seem to be Liberal friendly, and some CPC. But it's early, we've barely been at it a week. The Conservatives have some work to do, however.

[Riverwind]

I believe if he would have tried this strategy the media would have immediately started referring to Harper's hidden agenda, and he knew it.

And Harper could have responded with a clear commitment that his gov't would not introduce any legislation nor support any private members bills on the subject. Harper has to learn that the vast majority of Canadians do not want a social conservative as PM - no matter what the polls may say as about the SSM issue itself. In other words, if Harper wants to be PM he will need to make some personal compromises. If he wants to wax poetic about 'principals' then he will likely have to do it from the opposition benches.

[sharkman]

I suppose you have a point, Sparhawk, one has to make tough decisions on these matters. I respect him for being honest enough to admit fully what he'd do, but many in the party probably just want to drop the issue and let it be.

I remain sceptical of some members of the media, however. I don't think they would believe Harper if he did as you suggest. They'd refer to a hidden agenda or some such nonsense.

[Leader Circle]

I suppose you have a point, Sparhawk, one has to make tough decisions on these matters.  I respect him for being honest enough to admit fully what he'd do, but many in the party probably just want to drop the issue and let it be.

I remain sceptical of some members of the media, however.  I don't think they would believe Harper if he did as you suggest.  They'd refer to a hidden agenda or some such nonsense.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think if Harper runs on one topic, he can win this election. If he takes the healthcare thing and makes a public/private mixed healthcare and pushes it, it will win the election for him like it did for Mulroney in 1988 with free trade.

[shoop]

Harper's strategy is good for now. *If* the Liberals start attacking the Conservatives with the same old scary, scary, scary. Then he should switch to corruption with the Income Trust Leak leading the pack...

I think if Harper runs on one topic, he can win this election. If he takes the healthcare thing and makes a public/private mixed healthcare and pushes it, it will win the election for him like it did for Mulroney in 1988 with free trade.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Riverwind]

I think if Harper runs on one topic, he can win this election. If he takes the healthcare thing and makes a public/private mixed healthcare and pushes it, it will win the election for him like it did for Mulroney in 1988 with free trade.

I would agree. Canadians are very slow to accept new ideas but once they accept it is the best way forward they are willing to embrace it completely.

[normanchateau]

Harper has to learn that the vast majority of Canadians do not want a social conservative as PM - no matter what the polls may say as about the SSM issue itself. In other words, if Harper wants to be PM he will need to make some personal compromises. If he wants to wax poetic about 'principals' then he will likely have to do it from the opposition benches.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper is a social conservative. It's far too late for him to portray himself as anything but a social conservative. I feel sorry for the man. He blurts out positions on ssm and decriminalization which are his honest positions and I respect that he's telling us his positions now rather than after he's elected.

But his positions differ from those of most Canadians who are not social conservatives. Most Liberal, NDP, BQ, and Green supporters are not social conservatives. CPC made a huge mistake in picking him as leader. I suspect CPC won't make a similar mistake in next year's leadership campaign.

[tweedledee]

Harper's strategy is good for now. *If* the Liberals start attacking the Conservatives with the same old scary, scary, scary. Then he should switch to corruption with the Income Trust Leak leading the pack...

I think if Harper runs on one topic, he can win this election. If he takes the healthcare thing and makes a public/private mixed healthcare and pushes it, it will win the election for him like it did for Mulroney in 1988 with free trade.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The scary so-con attacks don't work anymore people are seeing through that one. Now its this Canadian thing, ya know, only liberals can love Canada. Bite me on that one.

[normanchateau]

The scary so-con attacks don't work anymore people are seeing through that one. 

Which people? The clever and superior people who are voting CPC or the dumb and ignorant people who are so blind to the truth that they've decided to vote NDP, BQ, Liberal or Green?

[shoop]

Normie, Normie, Normie.

The hypocrisy in in your post is appalling.

If you switch CPC with Liberal and get rid of the other parties that is *exactly* how you feel. Your history of posts supports this proposition.

Putting words in the mouths of CPC supporters is sad. Many people are at least listening to Harper now instead of automatically tuning him out. That is all we can ask.

Which people?  The clever and superior people who are voting CPC or the dumb and ignorant people who are so blind to the truth that they've decided to vote NDP, BQ, Liberal or Green?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[normanchateau]

If you switch CPC with Liberal and get rid of the other parties that is *exactly* how you feel.

Amazing if not hilarious that you know how I feel.