Is an 'antihegemonic' coalition united by grievances the west's biggest current risk?

[Yzermandius19]

5 minutes ago, Luz P. said:

You're level of dellusion is simply astounding...

your overestimating of China and/or Russia is astoundingly delusional

Edited August 4, 2022 by Yzermandius19

[Luz P.]

21 hours ago, Yzermandius19 said:

your overestimating of China and/or Russia is astoundingly delusional

Time will tell... however, the USA is overextended, picking fights overseas and forgetting to take care of its own.

[Yzermandius19]

3 minutes ago, Luz P. said:

Time will tell... however, the USA is overextended, picking fights overseas and forgetting to take care of its own.

it's not overextended and it's taking care of it's own better than competition

even with someone as incompetent as Biden as POTUS

Russia is overextended

China is a house of cards teetering on collapse

Edited August 5, 2022 by Yzermandius19

[Luz P.]

2 hours ago, Yzermandius19 said:

it's not overextended and it's taking care of it's own better than competition - yes it is, and oblivious to it.  Biden et al need massive civil unrest to "get it"

Russia is overextended - yes it is

China is a house of cards teetering on collapse - not sure about this

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by Luz P.
formatting

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 8/3/2022 at 12:05 AM, Yzermandius19 said:

in 30 years time

China will be way behind America

the assumption that China will grow at anywhere near the rate it did for the last 30 years during the next 30 years is asinine 

China is a bubble, it's going to pop

Nobody knows what is going to happen but it is surely prudent to plan for what one can reasonably foresee as a possibility, especially when that possibility could affect our way of life? China is already a serious threat to stability in the Far East. Imagine a country with a similarly xenophobic and totalitarian government with 50% more global GDP share in 2052, a very conservative estimate. We’re talking about a civilization that was one of the wealthiest in the world for thousands of years, back when many of our ancestors were running around with paint on their faces in Europe, that has 1.4 billion people. A country that has declared its contempt for liberal democracy, with the talent of Japan and a population the size of India, should not be dismissed so lightly. 

Yes, China has many bubbles that will pop and a hideous governmental system that keeps its people down. But it also has more of the world’s best businessmen than any other country, who succeed despite that system. The story is the same in technology and science. Take a look at, say, any pathology journal and look at the names of the authors and, increasingly, where they live. Over the long-term, it is unreasonable to imagine (for unstated reasons) that its rise won’t continue. And that rise is an existential problem for freedom in the world - more North Korea than South Korea, unfortunately. Xi and Co. are well aware their citizens are becoming better informed and will be more difficult to control despite extraordinary surveillance. The surest way for the Marxists to maintain power in Beijing is continue their aggression abroad and disrupt freedom globally.

Two obvious problems right now - the real estate bubble and Covid. I hope Xi comes in for a lot more flak on his zero Covid policy which he has used as a screen to ramp up oppression even more. China is facing a difficult year. 

Edited August 5, 2022 by SpankyMcFarland

[Yzermandius19]

8 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Nobody knows what is going to happen but it is surely prudent to plan for what one can reasonably foresee as a possibility, especially when that possibility could affect our way of life? China is already a serious threat to stability in the Far East. Imagine a country with a similarly xenophobic and totalitarian government with 50% more global GDP share in 2052, a very conservative estimate. We’re talking about a civilization that was one of the wealthiest in the world for thousands of years, back when many of our ancestors were running around with paint on their faces in Europe, that has 1.4 billion people. A country that has declared its contempt for liberal democracy, with the talent of Japan and a population the size of India, should not be dismissed so lightly. 

Yes, China has many bubbles that will pop and a hideous governmental system that keeps its people down. But it also has more of the world’s best businessmen than any other country, who succeed despite that system. The story is the same in technology and science. Take a look at, say, any pathology journal and look at the names of the authors and, increasingly, where they live. Over the long-term, it is unreasonable to imagine (for unstated reasons) that its rise won’t continue. And that rise is an existential problem for freedom in the world - more North Korea than South Korea, unfortunately. Xi and Co. are well aware their citizens are becoming better informed and will be more difficult to control despite extraordinary surveillance. The surest way for the Marxists to maintain power in Beijing is continue their aggression abroad and disrupt freedom globally.

Two obvious problems right now - the real estate bubble and Covid. I hope Xi comes in for a lot more flak on his zero Covid policy which he has used as a screen to ramp up oppression even more. China is facing a difficult year. 

China will lose 500 million people by 2050

it had a dead cat bounce, it's out of steam

it will not continue to rise

it doesn't invent anything it just steals from those who do

you cannot become top superpower by stealing you need to innovate

and the Chinese don't do that

[SpankyMcFarland]

15 hours ago, Yzermandius19 said:

China will lose 500 million people by 2050

it had a dead cat bounce, it's out of steam

it will not continue to rise

That is one possible outcome, a highly unlikely one at that. It would be prudent for the West not to rely on such wishful thinking. 

 

 

15 hours ago, Yzermandius19 said:

it doesn't invent anything it just steals from those who do

you cannot become top superpower by stealing you need to innovate

and the Chinese don't do that

I’ve already suggested you read the pathology literature to correct your impressions on Chinese lack of innovation. Actually, look at any scientific or technological field, or try the history of China and the numerous products invented there. Yes, China steals technology. So does Israel BTW. But they are both prodigious innovators as well. Have you worked with science grads from the PRC? They are as good as Chinese from the diaspora these days, ie very good indeed. And driven. 

 

Edited August 6, 2022 by SpankyMcFarland

[Yzermandius19]

14 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

That is one possible outcome, a highly unlikely one at that. It would be prudent for the West not to rely on such wishful thinking. 

 

 

I’ve already suggested you read the pathology literature to correct your impressions on Chinese lack of innovation. Actually, look at any scientific or technological field, or try the history of China and the numerous products invented there. Yes, China steals technology. So does Israel BTW. But they are both prodigious innovators as well. Have you worked with science grads from the PRC? They are as good as Chinese from the diaspora these days, ie very good indeed. And driven. 

it's simple demographics

China's one child policy killed the birth rate

and the older generations dying off will lead to a huge population contraction

which will be quite bad for the economy

China doesn't innovate, countries with far smaller populations do far more innovation than them

and until that changes, China isn't overtaking America

Edited August 6, 2022 by Yzermandius19

[SpankyMcFarland]

5 hours ago, Yzermandius19 said:

China doesn't innovate, countries with far smaller populations do far more innovation than them

and until that changes, China isn't overtaking America

OK, when you say, ‘China doesn’t innovate’, are you really trying to claim that nobody in the PRC innovates at anything? I can post recent articles all day that would beg to differ there. Here’s a wee taste of one:

Quote

For the United States, strategic competition with China will be a defining feature of the 21st century. Technology is a huge component of this rivalry, particularly as both China and the United States push to set the standards in key emerging technology fields like 5G, quantum computing, and more. U.S. experts and policymakers cannot operate under the flawed and debunked assumption that China cannot innovate in these emerging technologies. Successful and efficacious policy will come about only if we avoid mirror imaging and assess China within the confines of its own capabilities and limitations.

Quote

https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/beijings-re-innovation-strategy-is-key-element-of-u-s-china-competition/