Appeasing the aggressor, take 75

[myata]

Remember Munich 1938, Czechoslovakia and all the heroic things that followed? Scroll forward eighty years or so, back to our days.

Today Russia lists its demands to NATO (BBC). Russia invaded Georgia in 2008; keeps its puppets in Moldova since early 1990-s; invaded Ukraine in 2014. And now it came up with demands to NATO. What is not clear in this sequence of events? What is new and surprising here?

Trump, hectic and volatile, showed a strong response to Russia and I can't comment on his motives. But Russia sat in its corner and did not put out demands.

Then in the new age of reconciliation partners persuaded Biden to remove sanctions on Nord stream pipeline. Removed sanctions when Russia didn't move an inch in Ukraine and Georgia. What would you make of it? How would you interpret it? Should you roll back aggression or go ahead with it, now that the opponent showing weakness and things are going your way? Try to guess for North Korea, Russia and such, can you?

A serious, and what if critical? even existential? problem in the West is its apparent inability to learn from experience. Some lines should be never allowed to be crossed; and some principles, compromised on. But there are so many factors, priorities, interests and so on. And it was so long ago. What if we try again, just this very little? What if it would work differently today?

Of course now we can hear strong talk about united response. But Russia already has seen and heard all talks and words in two decades, and Nord stream is back on the table. And Biden already talking about further negotiations, about what though? - Russia's special role in deciding future of the NATO? And there are leaked conversations that perhaps serious financial sanctions in the case of further aggression would be too severe and one needs to tread carefully.

Maybe Russia wont' invade. Maybe it's all for internal consumption. But it already allows it to switch and turn the agenda, from responsibility for numerous acts of aggression and occupation to new demands to NATO. Who is at fault here? Who is demanding and who trying to respond? And on continuing aggression it hasn't moved an inch, have you seen it moving an inch back in all these years?

So what would you make of it? Is it what Russia hears or what it sees? Today, or back then in 1938?

 

[DogOnPorch]

Russia was willing to swallow whatever pride it had in the 1930s and work alongside the Nazis in flattening Poland. One can let 'em babysit one's kids if one is stupid.

[eyeball]

6 hours ago, myata said:

Remember Munich 1938, Czechoslovakia and all the heroic things that followed? Scroll forward eighty years or so, back to our days.

Today Russia lists its demands to NATO (BBC). Russia invaded Georgia in 2008; keeps its puppets in Moldova since early 1990-s; invaded Ukraine in 2014. And now it came up with demands to NATO. What is not clear in this sequence of events? What is new and surprising here?

Not scrolling back 30 years to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and realizing Putin's in-his-dreams posturing is more for domestic consumption and convincing Russians they still have a country with a capacity to make the world tremble.

If you've seen one strongman you've seen them all and they all need some level of local buy-in to justify their existence. The last thing it seems Russia needs to communicate to the world is an unhealthy willingness to put up with tyranny but it is what it is.

[eyeball]

7 hours ago, myata said:

So what would you make of it? Is it what Russia hears or what it sees? Today, or back then in 1938?

I answered above what I make of it but as for Russians, I bet lots pine away for the past and cry over the evil cabal of globalists they're being told have taken over their world.

Get in line...everybody has to put up with that nowadays.

[DogOnPorch]

Russia has a rocket force that makes the world tremble. I just does. The Yars and Topol are real life monsters that lurk in the wilds of Siberia...waiting. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by DogOnPorch

[eyeball]

22 minutes ago, DogOnPorch said:

...waiting. 

Life's too short man.

[DogOnPorch]

5 hours ago, eyeball said:

Life's too short man.

 

Those can make it much shorter. Or extremely desperate...searching for fresh water.

But to flippantly judge the Russians as ineffective is to ignore ALL history. They're like the Klingons...born to uncloak off of your starboard-bow, Captain.

[myata]

Russia came to see Biden as a weakling, difficult to interpret it otherwise. Afghan fiasco, Nord stream concession bumbled talk and careful weighing of the options. How would you read it, is there another way? Good luck to him with negotiating in this position.

[myata]

The second Putin - Biden call confirms that Russia sees Biden as a weak opponent that can be pressed into giving in to its demands. After a decade of invading and occupying sovereign countries Russia now talking about "eliminating threats". Anything less than an immediate response of a maximum strength would be a repetition of the painful mistakes of the past.

"Biden agreed that Russia needed some security guarantees". Again, after Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukrain in 2014, while continuing to occupy parts of Moldova since 1990-s let's agree there need to be new security guarantees. There's no idiot like a blissful idiot they say. OK, let's watch it play out again.

Edited December 31, 2021 by myata