Conservatives not doing so badly

[apollo19]

I found this excerpt from: http://www.canada.com/national/story.html?...85-b368361f6f60

MP John Reynolds, the party's vice-chair of election preparedness, said the party's pollster, Praxicus Public Strategies Inc., found 33 per cent of voters intended to support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent for the Conservatives.

"Our numbers haven't looked this good in a year," he said.

The NDP polled 20 per cent in the survey, Reynolds said.

Party pollster Dimitri Pantazopoulos said the survey of 1,500 people between Sept. 15 and 23 is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

One would think that all the polling firms would just ask a simple, non-leading question, in hopes of getting semi-accurate results, which unfortunately hasn't been happening. I think that these poll numbers are probably right, and they do have a larger sample base. Even as a Liberal supporter, I find the media always trying to bash the Conservatives, which I find to be unfair. If the numbers keep up like this, the election will probably be after the first Gomery report, with the Bloc in the 40's and the Conservatives near 30%. It seems that with Cadman no longer with us, the Conservatives and Bloc, with Kilgour and O'Brian, will probably topple the government with or without the NDP, as they now have the numbers.

[newbie]

Polls are only good when they run in your favour.

[tml12]

I found this excerpt from: http://www.canada.com/national/story.html?...85-b368361f6f60

MP John Reynolds, the party's vice-chair of election preparedness, said the party's pollster, Praxicus Public Strategies Inc., found 33 per cent of voters intended to support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent for the Conservatives.

"Our numbers haven't looked this good in a year," he said.

The NDP polled 20 per cent in the survey, Reynolds said.

Party pollster Dimitri Pantazopoulos said the survey of 1,500 people between Sept. 15 and 23 is considered accurate within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

One would think that all the polling firms would just ask a simple, non-leading question, in hopes of getting semi-accurate results, which unfortunately hasn't been happening. I think that these poll numbers are probably right, and they do have a larger sample base. Even as a Liberal supporter, I find the media always trying to bash the Conservatives, which I find to be unfair. If the numbers keep up like this, the election will probably be after the first Gomery report, with the Bloc in the 40's and the Conservatives near 30%. It seems that with Cadman no longer with us, the Conservatives and Bloc, with Kilgour and O'Brian, will probably topple the government with or without the NDP, as they now have the numbers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I read that too. However, if you're a Liberal supporter I wouldn't be concerned. The November 1 report isn't going to tell us anything we didn't already hear last spring. And, as you probably know in Toronto, Canadians may hate what they're hearing from Gomery...but I do believe enough will be intimidated enough by Harper's right-wing past and Liberal TV commericials to keep the Liberals in power.

[shoop]

I read that too.  However, if you're a Liberal supporter I wouldn't be concerned.  The November 1 report isn't going to tell us anything we didn't already hear last spring.  And, as you probably know in Toronto, Canadians may hate what they're hearing from Gomery...but I do believe enough will be intimidated enough by Harper's right-wing past and Liberal TV commericials to keep the Liberals in power.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thankfully Toronto isn't the whole country. There are what, 25 seats in the city limits?

The Conservatives see Toronto as a very tough nut to crack, but there are a few possibilites. St. Paul's comes to mind.

They'll probably focus on the 905, maritimes, solidifying their base in the west and shoot for a minor breakthrough (up to five seats?) in Quebec.

Those ads the conservatives released not that long ago seem to be moving them in the right direction. Hopefully they keep the same tone.

[August1991]

Apollo, thanks for the linked article.

From the article:

"I believed from the outset it was not going to be capable, given its narrow base, of being successful in the country," Clark said Tuesday... "I think the party is narrowly based. And a narrowly based party can't win a broadly based country."

My first reaction is that, given Clark's political judgment, if he says it won't happen, then it will. But on second thought, I realize that more is at stake. I know many English thought Margaret Thatcher was "narrowly based" in 1978, and many Americans thought the same of Ronald Reagan when he ran in 1976. The people who think like this - people like Clark - simply cannot think outside the box.

...shoot for a minor breakthrough (up to five seats?) in Quebec.

It won't happen Shoop.

And, as you probably know in Toronto, Canadians may hate what they're hearing from Gomery...but I do believe enough will be intimidated enough by Harper's right-wing past and Liberal TV commericials to keep the Liberals in power.

I tend to agree, tml. But Gomery's report will as a minimum bring all those names and "Librano" stories back into the news for a few days. If the Tories wanted to go for the jugular, they would have Gomery release a report during the campaign.

Intimidated by Harper's past? That will work less and less; it amounts to crying wolf.

If the numbers keep up like this, the election will probably be after the first Gomery report, with the Bloc in the 40's and the Conservatives near 30%. It seems that with Cadman no longer with us, the Conservatives and Bloc, with Kilgour and O'Brian, will probably topple the government with or without the NDP, as they now have the numbers.

As to election timing, I agree Apollo - except we might get an election call before the report. The Bloc in the 40s? In seats, the BQ will get in the high 50s, if not over 60.

More critical, in this House, it appears that the BQ and the Tories now have the means to topple the government - unless Martin manages to lay out more comfy seductive fur. Harper has positioned himself well in the event he is accused of working with the BQ. Ridding Canada of a corrupt federal government matters more than the false friends required to do it.

As to the NDP, if they vote against the government too, that lends legitimacy to Harper. If the NDP votes with the Liberals, but the government falls, then the NDP plays into the Liberal strategy of seeking the soft-NDP/Liberal vote.

I still think though that the outcome of an election will be a minority government, in all likelihood Liberal.

----

From link above:

"It's the best caucus meeting I've been at in, I'd say, a year," Solberg said.

Critics outside of caucus remain unimpressed with the party's attempts to remake itself as an alternative to the Liberals.

Harper's true situation is best measured by how the caucus behaves. It is very hard to lead a party with even one or two dissidents in the caucus - dissidents outside the caucus matter less. And imagine how hard it is to lead an opposition caucus.

In the case of the Liberals, caucus or not, dissidents are just bought.

Rene Levesque changed that kind of politics in Quebec; someone should do the same in federal Canada.

[shoop]

My first reaction is that, given Clark's political judgment, if he says it won't happen, then it will.  The people who think like this - people like Clark - simply cannot think outside the box.

I agree and kinda wonder what Clark gets out of continually taking potshots from the sidelines. Seriously, what is he hoping to achieve?

It won't happen Shoop.

Don't be too hasty to come to that conclusion. There are some enclaves on the island that could turn for the party....

But Gomery's report will as a minimum bring all those names and "Librano" stories back into the news for a few days.  If the Tories wanted to go for the jugular, they would have Gomery release a report during the campaign.

Which will hopefully happen.

Intimidated by Harper's past?  That will work less and less; it amounts to crying wolf.

There is a prime example how the Liberals can't think outside the box. It only has to stop working for maybe five to ten percent of the electorate, then Dithers is in huge, huge trouble.

I still think though that the outcome of an election will be a minority government, in all likelihood Liberal.

Definitely going to be a minority government. "In all likelihood" is far too strong, if you put any faith in these poll results....

Harper's true situation is best measured by how the caucus behaves.  It is very hard to lead a party with even one or two dissidents in the caucus - dissidents outside the caucus matter less.  And imagine how hard it is to lead an opposition caucus.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper has been doing a good job on this count lately.

Seriously there has been nothing since Grewal, and that was a pretty strange case which never really hurt the party.

ETA, just took a look at the numbers and this is a totally plausible situation. Basically it is the results from the 2004 election with the Liberals losing about four points to the NDs. The CPC basically holds its vote from 2004. Why would somebody who voted CPC in 2004 change their mind?

Say the Liberals lose (from 2004 results) eight seats to the bloc, sixteen to the CPC and four to the NDs. New standing =

Lib - 107

CPC - 115

BQ - 62

ND - 23

Which is good for the country for a number of reasons. Buh bye Dithers and it gives Harper the chance to show what he can do without giving him free range.

btw August I made these projections ASSuming the CPC gets shut out in QC.

[tml12]

My first reaction is that, given Clark's political judgment, if he says it won't happen, then it will.  The people who think like this - people like Clark - simply cannot think outside the box.

I agree and kinda wonder what Clark gets out of continually taking potshots from the sidelines. Seriously, what is he hoping to achieve?

It won't happen Shoop.

Don't be too hasty to come to that conclusion. There are some enclaves on the island that could turn for the party....

But Gomery's report will as a minimum bring all those names and "Librano" stories back into the news for a few days.  If the Tories wanted to go for the jugular, they would have Gomery release a report during the campaign.

Which will hopefully happen.

Intimidated by Harper's past?  That will work less and less; it amounts to crying wolf.

There is a prime example how the Liberals can't think outside the box. It only has to stop working for maybe five to ten percent of the electorate, then Dithers is in huge, huge trouble.

I still think though that the outcome of an election will be a minority government, in all likelihood Liberal.

Definitely going to be a minority government. "In all likelihood" is far too strong, if you put any faith in these poll results....

Harper's true situation is best measured by how the caucus behaves.  It is very hard to lead a party with even one or two dissidents in the caucus - dissidents outside the caucus matter less.  And imagine how hard it is to lead an opposition caucus.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Harper has been doing a good job on this count lately.

Seriously there has been nothing since Grewal, and that was a pretty strange case which never really hurt the party.

ETA, just took a look at the numbers and this is a totally plausible situation. Basically it is the results from the 2004 election with the Liberals losing about four points to the NDs. The CPC basically holds its vote from 2004. Why would somebody who voted CPC in 2004 change their mind?

Say the Liberals lose (from 2004 results) eight seats to the bloc, sixteen to the CPC and four to the NDs. New standing =

Lib - 107

CPC - 115

BQ - 62

ND - 23

Which is good for the country for a number of reasons. Buh bye Dithers and it gives Harper the chance to show what he can do without giving him free range.

btw August I made these projections ASSuming the CPC gets shut out in QC.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree with your analysis. Perhaps it wouldn't be a bad idea to give Harper a minority government. However, we must also consider that a minority Conservative government wouldn't be THAT much different. Harper would still be restrained, as the Bloc would hold him back on many social and economic issues. And he certainly wouldn't get the support of the NDP or the Liberals. I think it would not give Canadians the chance to see a real Harper government, but it would be a change.

[Guest eureka]

A minority Conservative government would be an unmitigated disaster. It would be quite impossible for it to carry out any program related to its beliefs. We would be back to the polls in very short order and Canadians are not so stupid as to want that.

[shoop]

It would be quite impossible for it to carry out any program related to its beliefs. We would be back to the polls in very short order and Canadians are not so stupid as to want that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't think I agree with this. There are a lot of moderate policies that the CPC could possibly find a middle ground with the BQ or even the Liberals on. Besides a CPC minority government would also have the benefit of a Liberal leadership race, which would buy them some time.

So if the only argument against a CPC minority government is that it would mean another election shortly, then it looks good for them. That isn't a reasonable concern...

[apollo19]

As to election timing, I agree Apollo - except we might get an election call before the report.  The Bloc in the 40s?  In seats, the BQ will get in the high 50s, if not over 60.

More critical, in this House, it appears that the BQ and the Tories now have the means to topple the government - unless Martin manages to lay out more comfy seductive fur.  Harper has positioned himself well in the event he is accused of working with the BQ.  Ridding Canada of a corrupt federal government matters more than the false friends required to do it.

I meant that the BQ is in 40s in polling, they will definately hold atleast their 54 seats. The BQ/CPC will probably coordinate so as to land the Gomery report in the middle of the election, just to bring back the issue without focusing on it in the first weeks of the campaign. One thing which many people have overlooked is the age of Paul Martin -- he is 67 already. If anyone remembers back to the recent British election, Michael Howard said he was too old to lead a party at the age of 67, which he would be in the next election (he is 63 now). One would think that if Martin doesn't get a majority with this election, he will be gone. Harper will probably be around for a while, especially if Martin leaves.

[shoop]

One thing which many people have overlooked is the age of Paul Martin -- he is 67 already. If anyone remembers back to the recent British election, Michael Howard said he was too old to lead a party at the age of 67, which he would be in the next election (he is 63 now). One would think that if Martin doesn't get a majority with this election, he will be gone. Harper will probably be around for a while, especially if Martin leaves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't know if anyone has really overlooked it, just seems pretty irrelevant at this point.

They only way Dither's age comes into play is IF the Liberals win a majority. If the Liberals win a minority he gets booted. Any sort of CPC win and Martin gets booted.

If the Liberals do win a majority Martin definitely resigns before the next election, it's just really unlikely to happen.

Harper is only around for a while if the CPC wins. They lose and two strikes he is outta there.

[tml12]

One thing which many people have overlooked is the age of Paul Martin -- he is 67 already. If anyone remembers back to the recent British election, Michael Howard said he was too old to lead a party at the age of 67, which he would be in the next election (he is 63 now). One would think that if Martin doesn't get a majority with this election, he will be gone. Harper will probably be around for a while, especially if Martin leaves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't know if anyone has really overlooked it, just seems pretty irrelevant at this point.

They only way Dither's age comes into play is IF the Liberals win a majority. If the Liberals win a minority he gets booted. Any sort of CPC win and Martin gets booted.

If the Liberals do win a majority Martin definitely resigns before the next election, it's just really unlikely to happen.

Harper is only around for a while if the CPC wins. They lose and two strikes he is outta there.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Completely agreed.

[August1991]

However, it appears unlikely the opposition will have a way to force an election between Nov. 1 and the Christmas holidays.

A motion of no-confidence in the government could be put forward on an opposition day, when one of the opposition parties is allowed to choose the topic of debate. The government must schedule seven such days before Dec. 10, but can decide when they will be.

Opposition days are usually scheduled once a week on a Tuesday or a Thursday. The earliest possible opposition day following Nov. 1, a Tuesday, would be Nov. 3, a Thursday.

However votes on motions put forward on Thursdays are "deferred" to the following week and Parliament does not sit the week of Nov. 7. That would push any vote to the week of Nov. 14 and a minimum 35-day campaign would put the election on Boxing Day, which is unlikely to be acceptable politically.

"There's a very small window of opportunity and I think the government is going to take that opportunity away by ensuring that we don't have anything that would possibly trigger a vote of confidence or could be construed as such," said Peter MacKay, deputy leader of the Conservative Party.

G & M

This article assumes that the election is called after November 1. But what if the election is called before November 1, but the election held after?

[ssiguy]

The Conservatives will NEVER, I repeat NEVER get a seat in Quebec.

The Liberals may lose some to the Bloc but the Liberals have a stronghold on the WestIland and a few other places. They know how to vote strategically.

They would be far too worried about splitting the non-separtist vote. They will bit their tongue and vote Liberal as always.

Also, lets be serious Harper is seen as a redneck Albertan and Canada hasn't voted in a majority government without a Quebec leader since the 60s. Also if Ontario sees a possible Conservative government they will vote the "anything but the Conservatives" vote to keep the right wing out of power.

[shoop]

Any support for these assertions or are you just out for a troll?