Election Forecasting For 2006

[mirror]

Link

Then click on "site map" which should take you in.

Current (August 25, 2005) forecast:

Lib - 150 seats

Con - 71 seats

NDP - 27 seats

Bloc - 60 seats

Total - 308 seats

If, and that's a big if, these projections are accurate the Conservatives may be coming close to losing their official opposition status.

And then of course it may just be part of the Liberal strategy of a full court press as they desparately want a majority government and will be pulling out all the stops to get it, otherwise PM Martin is toast.

Or finally it may be just some pollster's forecast who has no affiliation to any political party.

This is what we are really here for, so let's discuss, eh!

[mirror]

For those of you who might have despaired seeing the previous results don't, as the following results show a very high undecided factor, which means it could still be anybody's ball game.

Election Prediction Project

Lib - 80 seats

Con - 76 seats

NDP - 15 seats

Bloc - 53 seats

Undecided - 84 seats

Total - 308 seats

[mirror]

This democratic space projector is incredible work.

It shows the Conservatives taking one seat near or part of Quebec City I believe, the riding of Louis Saint Laurent squeaking by the Bloc.

[August1991]

This democratic space projector is incredible work.

No, it's political prediction by engineer. Very precise and completely meaningless.

Election Prediction Project

L - 80

C - 76

N - 15

B - 53

U - 84

T - 308

This is a much better project and the discussions of specific ridings are interesting. I note that the Liberals have 10 absolutely safe seats in Quebec.

[mirror]

Actually the democratic space projection showing the Conservatives winning only 71 seats is based on the latest Ipsos-Reid poll.

Looking at how it is done it appears to be very well thought out, a very thorough explanation is given with lots and lots of details, and it does seem to be quite scientific.

Unfortunately the election prediction forecast showing the high 84 undecided apparently is woefully out of date and has not beeb updated since May, 2005.

The latest seat projections nodice is showing are:

Lib - 137 seats

Con - 76 seats

Bloc - 66 seats

NDP - 28 seats

Other - 1 seat

Total - 308 seats

But hey these are only predictions, eh!

[Bakunin]

Lib - 125 seats

Con - 93 seats

Bloc - 59 seats

NDP - 30 seats

Other - 1 seat

Total - 308 seats

It all depend on how the gomery report will affect ontario and the maritime.

[mirror]

Do you think the Conservatives will win the Louis St laurent riding?

[ScottBrison]

Do you think the Conservatives will win the Louis St laurent riding?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Predicting Elections, interesting.....

On a completly unrelated topic I have it on good authority the 6-49 numbers for this week's draw will be:

6 9 18 22 43 47

[mirror]

The DS election predictor which is the best forecaster I have seen to date is forecasting 2 seats for the Liberals in Alberta - Edmontre Centre, and Edmonton - Mill Woods - Beaumont, and the other 26 seats going PC. What do Edmontoians and/or Albertans think about this?

[kimmy]

The DS election predictor which is the best forecaster I have seen to date is forecasting 2 seats for the Liberals in Alberta - Edmontre Centre, and Edmonton - Mill Woods - Beaumont, and the other 26 seats going PC. What do Edmontoians and/or Albertans think about this?

I haven't a clue as to what will happen in Edmonton Centre-- Anne McLellan is a high-profile and long-serving MP, but that was the case last election as well, and she won by a relatively narrow margin. Will she do better, worse, or about the same this time?

However, I think forecasting a Liberal victory in Edmonton Beaumont is ridiculous. The only reason the Liberals took that riding last time is that their candidate was David Freakin' Kilgour-- a long-serving MP who is much-loved and widely respected by his constituents. And even at that, he won by less than a hundred votes. He won't be running for the Liberals this time. Whether he retires, runs as an independant, or joins the CPC remains to be seen, but he has left the Liberals, and so has any chance they had of winning this riding next time out.

-k

[mirror]

I also thought that the projections for BC showing so many Liberal seats was a tad optomistic for them.

What I really like about the DS forecaster though is that you can actually see the projections for each seat.

[mirror]

Here is the direct link for Greg Morrow's website which is forcasting 150 seats for the Liberals at the present time. He also has an article on electoral reform.

Link

[mirror]

So Canadians have been turned of politics by the corporate me, me, me agenda emenating from the Liberals and the Conservatives. No kidding.. This next election should prove to be very different with perhaps some very surprising results.

Summer barbecues are fine and dandy, but Martin and Harper can't seem to rustle up any supporters

[mirror]

Another election forecasting site predicting another Liberal minority government;

Link

Liberal - 122 seats

Conservative - 95 seats

NDP - 31 seats

Bloc - 59 seats

Ind (Parrish) - 1 seat

Total - 308 seats

Not a bad forecast however I'm not sure the Conservatives have as much strength as what's being forecast here after their disasterous Spring and Summer. I would put the Conservatives more in the 75 seat range, at least at the moment.

[mirror]

Anyway it looks like it is boiling down to the two following choices:

What to vote for : Torture lite or T. Rex in Eden?

[mirror]

Well according to democratic space forecasting, prior to today's CROP national poll in Quebec the Liberals would win 150 seats. so I suppose this puts them over the top and into a majority government.

This means that the Liberals may be itching for an election any time now.

And because Conservatives have sunk like a stone, it also means that the only hope of stopping the Liberals from forming a majority government is to vote NDP.

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, family pets, start your engines, the race is about to begin!!

[shoop]

Only sunk like a stone in your peanut-sized mind pal.

The CPC is ready for an election.

There has been a string of minor good news for them lately. A CPC minority would be a definite possibility if an election were held in the fall.

Democratic space is a terrible site to reference. But if that is the best you can do it can only mean good things for the CPC.

[mirror]

Only sunk like a stone in your peanut-sized mind pal.

The CPC is ready for an election.

There has been a string of minor good news for them lately. A CPC minority would be a definite possibility if an election were held in the fall.

Democratic space is a terrible site to reference. But if that is the best you can do it can only mean good things for the CPC.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

More impressive comments - you have so many!

[shoop]

More impressive comments - you have so many!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Keeping in mind the effort you put into this post I will respond with the apropos - I know you are but what am I.

[kimmy]

What to vote for : Torture lite or T. Rex in Eden?

Great article. Who is this guy "Slinger"? Is that his real name, or is it a pen name? If it's a pen name, why didn't he choose something more appropriate, like "Jackass" or "Retard"?

Isn't a pen name in a newspaper column one way to pretty much guarantee that your column will be taken about as seriously as a posting on an internet message board? I mean, I doubt that Jack Layton will stand up some day in the House of Commons and say "Mr. Speaker, I hold in my hands a column by Slinger of the Toronto Star..." He probably won't ever say "Mr. Speaker, I have on my Blackberry a posting by KIMMY of Mapleleaf Web..." either. But the difference, of course, is that I don't get paid to write columns. I get paid to run around with alcoholic beverages. I don't have a major newspaper giving me space and exposure. If I did, I'm sure I would not waste it by writing under a pen-name.

Of course, perhaps Slinger isn't a pen-name. Perhaps that's really what his parents named him. Which would explain quite a lot.

I digress.

What is Mr. Slinger slinging?

2) the Conservative candidate, Stephen Harper, thinks it's okay if his most ardent supporters believe dinosaurs roamed the Garden of Eden with Adam and Eve.

Ah. He doesn't wish to vote for Conservatives because young-earth creationists vote Conservative, and those guys are idiots.

(shrug)

I wonder which party Islamic fundamentalists vote for? Because whatever party they're voting for, I'm not voting for that party, because those guys suck. I don't think I'll vote for whichever party that Toronto's Tamil community votes for, either, because some of them support violence back home. I won't vote for whichever party Montreal ad-firm guys vote for, because those guys are crooks. (you can see where I'm going with this, right?)

I don't know the background to Ignatieff's comments regarding torture, but if "Slinger's" treatment of this is as rational and fair-minded as his treatment of Harper, I've got a hunch it's probably not worth the trouble of researching it.

-k

[kimmy]

Well according to democratic space forecasting, prior to today's CROP national poll in Quebec the Liberals would win 150 seats. so I suppose this puts them over the top and into a majority government. 

mirror, if you read the document on "Democratic Space" where he explains the methodology behind his projections, it's clear that his projections are worthless.

I can't imagine that even Martin's monkeys in the PMO are dumb enough to call an election based off a goofy website and a poll in Quebec that looks SLIGHTLY LESS DISMAL than usual.

-k

[Cartman]

The only way to accurately predict election results is to survey every constituency right before the election. This is too expensive so we have to rely upon rough estimates. I think it is interesting to speculate.

The Liberals will most likely win because the NDP and the Conservatives are generally regarded as nutbars by most Canadians. The real question is what the Liberals would have to do to lose an election.

[mirror]

Any article I have read by Slinger in the past were written tongue-in-cheek.

Ignatieff though has had a major falling out with civil rights folks over his position concerning torture which apparently he now condones. If he is going to become one of our leading political leaders we really are in a lot more trouble in Canada than I thought.

[Guest eureka]

Slinger is one of the better reads in the Canadian Press. Usually, his columns are light humour, but, when he goes to social and political commentary, he is unusually perceptive and the satire is biting.

[Montgomery Burns]

Slinger sounds like he has had one too many hits off the bong.

Why are there so many loonies at the Toronto Star?

McQuaig, Slinger, Antonia Zerberasa or however you spell her last name. And ole what's-his-name, the anti-Israel and pro-death cult of displaced Arabs writer.

It does not speak well for Canada that this rag is the #1 seller in Canada.