Pollara Federal Poll June 5/05

[bigdude]

Canada

Party/Today/May 3/05

Libs: 38%, 31%

Cons: 27%, 36%

New Democrats: 19%, 17%

Bloc: 13%, 15%

Bye bye Steevie!!!

[The Terrible Sweal]

Canada

Party/Today/May 3/05

Libs: 38%, 31%

Cons: 27%, 36%

New Democrats: 19%, 17%

Bloc: 13%, 15%

Bye bye Steevie!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bye bye NDP balance of power, hello Liberal majority.

[kimmy]

Bye bye NDP balance of power, hello Liberal majority. 

So you're predicting that the Liberals will not just sweep Ontario, and gain seats elsewhere? That seems a tad optimistic... they're still going to get pummelled in Quebec and in the West, the two areas where they need to gain some seats to put them over the top. These latest numbers put them *almost* at the level that got them a minority last time out...

-k

[Guest eureka]

You don't listen, Kimmy. I have told you the Liberals will pick up a few in Quebec.

[kimmy]

You don't listen, Kimmy. I have told you the Liberals will pick up a few in Quebec.

I listen. I just don't regard your views as god-given fact. This prediction, in particular, strikes me as fantasy.

-kimmy

[The Terrible Sweal]

Bye bye NDP balance of power, hello Liberal majority.  

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

So you're predicting that the Liberals will not just sweep Ontario, and gain seats elsewhere? That seems a tad optimistic... they're still going to get pummelled in Quebec and in the West, the two areas where they need to gain some seats to put them over the top. These latest numbers put them *almost* at the level that got them a minority last time out...

I predict the Liberals will hold or gain slightly in Quebec and BC. They may gain one or two in Ontario, and they will improve in the Atlantic. I don't know about Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Alberta would be hard to do worse than now.

In short, Harper has blown it.

[Rovik]

I agree with Kimmy. I would be astounded even if the Liberals keep the same amount of seats they have now in Quebec. Unless something drastically changes, Liberals will lose seats in Quebec to the Bloc.

I can't see Ontario and BC changing much. If there is any change it might be the NDP winning some more seats.

Atlantic Canada won't change much.

Alberta won't either. And for those predicting a complete CPC sweep there, I wouldn't be too sure. Anne McCellan (spelling?) would give a good fight. Kilgour is gone unless he runs for the CPC (if the CPCs allow him to join.)

Maintoba and Sask. won't change either, though I can see the NDP winning a seat in Sask.

In short, no Liberal majority.

[kimmy]

I predict the Liberals will hold or gain slightly in Quebec and BC.  They may gain one or two in Ontario, and they will improve in the Atlantic.  I don't know about Manitoba and Saskatchewan.  Alberta would be hard to do worse than now.

In short, Harper has blown it.

I don't disagree that Harper has blown it, but I'm still having a hard time picturing this majority you predict.

I think us anglos have a hard time realizing how much the sponsorship inquiry has captivated the imaginations of Quebecers. Most *realistic* (sorry, eureka...) analysis of Quebec has the Liberals hanging on to only core federalist ridings in Montreal... about 16 seats, as opposed to their current .. what is it, 24?

In BC they will not make much impact in the rural ridings, and in the urban areas they'll be battling the NDP, not the CPC.

I don't see them really having much growth potential in the Atlantic... they already have most of the seats there; there's not really many left for them to gain.

In Alberta, of course, they've already lost Edmonton-Beaumont (and won't retake it.) And will be lucky if Anne McLellan returns to office. I doubt there'll be any particular breakthrough on the rest of the prairies either. Saskatchewan and Manitoba voters don't have the same trepidation with the CPC that voters Ontario and eastward do.

I think that if we get a look at the regional breakdown of these results, you'll probably see that the Liberals revived popularity has been in southern Ontario, and Montreal and Vancouver, voters that went Liberal last election anyway. And of course, prior to the last election we were seeing numbers like this, and people were expecting a Liberal majority. Things didn't work out that way, and I doubt they'll work out that way this time either. If the Liberals are going to make such a big breakthrough... where are the seats coming from?

-k

[Guest eureka]

From Quebec! Has it escaped you that in spite of all the fury, the Bloc has hardly shifted in the polls since the last election. Much of that was "soft" support.

There are many other factors in play there: One is that federalist Quebeckers are probably a little remorseful over the consequences for their vote last time.

[August1991]

I'm with Kimmy on this.

In Quebec, the Liberals have 20 and the BQ have 55. This number can only go down for the Lib and up for the BQ. I'd guess Lib 15, BQ 60. I can even imagine the ridings. Pettigrew, for example, will not get re-elected.

Elsewhere in the country, I don't see the Tory seat numbers going down - maybe up a little. There could be switches between the NDP/Libs though. (I think that the NDP can only go up from the 19 they have now, but they would take seats from the Libs.)

At present, the Libs and NDP have a bare majority. If we had an election, I think that would change. But who knows.

Something to consider is that in terms of popular vote (not seats), the Libs and NDP together have about 55%.

[kimmy]

From Quebec! Has it escaped you that in spite of all the fury, the Bloc has hardly shifted in the polls since the last election. Much of that was "soft" support.

There are many other factors in play there: One is that federalist Quebeckers are probably a little remorseful over the consequences for their vote last time.

Your comic sense is impeccable, as always, Eureka. Even Leslie Nielsen would be jealous of your ability to draw a laugh with straight-faced delivery of hysterically funny material like this. Somebody who didn't know you like I do would swear you seriously believe that. Tremendously entertaining! What's next? A little soft-shoe? The seltzer-bottle gag? A musical number, maybe?

-kimmy

[cybercoma]

I can promise you there are two seats in Southern Ontario that will remain NDP and they're both in Windsor.

Thanks to the CAW.

And Essex belongs to Jeff Watson from the CPC...that could possibly change, but not likely.

[ScottBrison]

Canada

Party/Today/May 3/05

Libs: 38%, 31%

Cons: 27%, 36%

New Democrats: 19%, 17%

Bloc: 13%, 15%

Bye bye Steevie!!!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Bye bye NDP balance of power, hello Liberal majority.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Music to my ears.

[Guest eureka]

We will have to wait and see, Kimmy. I was once before wrong in a political judgement. That was many years ago when I took part in a debating society where I argued that women should fully participate in politics and that they were capably of rational analysis and decision making.

[kimmy]

We shall see, eureka.

However, given all available evidence, I think its clear which of our positions is "rational analysis and decision making" and which is pure partisan pom-pom-waving boosterism.

-k