Ekos Poll May 18 L38.7/C28.3/N18.4

[Littlefinger]

Here's a new EKOS poll from May 19, one that has a much larger sample size than the Compas one.

http://www.ekos.ca/admin/articles/19May2005Background.pdf

A summary can be found here:

http://www.ekos.ca/admin/articles/19May2005PressRelease.pdf

[August1991]

That Ekos poll was done before Belinda crossed the floor. (Well, 1000 of the sample was before and 500 after.)

[Black Dog]

EKOS poll in depth

The federal Liberals have consolidated and widened their lead over the Conservatives in the run-up to a possible federal election. The Conservatives have conspicuously failed to further capitalize on the political ammunition emanating from the Gomery Inquiry. Moreover, the recent defection of Belinda Stronach appears to have reinforced this trend and deepened the Conservatives difficulties in the crucial Ontario arena.

“Despite an auspicious political climate, the Conservatives have not only failed to advance but have retreated to their core constituency in recent weeks,” said Frank Graves, President of EKOS Research Associates. “All this paints a considerably darker picture of Conservative prospects than appeared a month

ago.”

...

Slightly more Canadians said they supported Ms. Stronach's move than opposed it. However, the split was clearly along party lines. Those intending to vote Liberal overwhelmingly supported her decision and NDPleaning voters also tended to back her by a significant margin. Conservative supporters overwhelmingly disapproved of her decision and Bloc Quebecois supporters also said they disapproved.

Most Canadians say that Ms. Stronach's move will not affect their likelihood to support the Liberals in the next election. However, her change of parties seems to have shifted the public's expectations in one important respect: respondents were much more likely to say they expect a Liberal victory in the next election after Ms. Stronach's move than they had been in the days leading up to it. Moreover, many other key indicators, including vote intention and trust improved for the Liberals and weakened for the Conservatives, particularly in Ontario where the Liberals now enjoy a 15-point lead.

[bigdude]

This EKOS poll is obviously a lot more accurate than the Compas poll, due to its sample size.

The Conservatives, now trailing the Liberals by more than 10%, if they force an election, might be jeopardizing their official opposition status.

Hari Kari anyone?

[I miss Reagan]

This EKOS poll is obviously a lot more accurate than the Compas poll, due to its sample size.

The Conservatives, now trailing the Liberals by more than 10%, if they force an election, might be jeopardizing their official opposition status.

Hari Kari anyone?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Awsome. Just bring on the election now. There's nothing I'd like to see more right now than a Liberal win with a solid Bloc landslide in Quebec.

[bigdude]

The last person in the world who wants an election now is Harper. Just call this poll the Belinda bounce!

BTW I have just checked and the accurate EKOS poll results are as follows:

Libs: 34.7%

Cons: 28.3%

NDP: 18.4%

After all the shouting and yelling, basically no change from the 2004 election results.

Ontario is especially devastating for the Cons trailing the Libs by 15%.

Go Belinda Go!

[takeanumber]

Agreed. But it's getting more visceral now.

Many Cons, already angry about everything else, are especially angry at Liberal supporters for, what they perceive, is the support of corruption.

Nothing could be furthur from the truth.

Liberals are supporting Liberals because of principles.

Here is an equation that Conservatives will never understand:

Charter > Corruption; National Unity > Corruption; Certainty > Corruption; Cleaing up corruption > Ongoing Corruption.

Until Cons 'get it', they'll never get government.

[I miss Reagan]

Charter > Corruption; National Unity > Corruption; Certainty > Corruption; Cleaing up corruption > Ongoing Corruption.

You are such a sophist. Shawinigate= Corruption, HRDC= Boondoggle, Gun Registry=Boondoggle, Sponsorship=Corruption, conspiracy to buy 5 politicians= Corruption.

I gotta hand it to you guys, you are very tolerant (except of course of anyone else's views).

[takeanumber]

I gotta hand it to you guys, you are very tolerant (except of course of anyone else's views).

I'm tolerant of your views, and that's the great thing about Canada...you can be as wrong as you want to be, and won't get purged.

Moreover, in the past you've told me to 'fuck off', and have launched personal attacks against me.

I've never done any such thing towards you.

So I'm confused where this charge of 'intolerance' comes from.

-----

You are such a sophist

Oh look, another personal attack, thx Reagan.

Shawinigate= Corruption, HRDC= Boondoggle, Gun Registry=Boondoggle, Sponsorship=Corruption, conspiracy to buy 5 politicians= Corruption.

It's not all about corruption. There are other values at play, principled values.

Do I want to vote for a party that calls women 'whores' and 'prostitutes', and then defends such language? Do I want to vote for a party who is so totally out of touch with my values, and the values of mainstream Canadians?

That said, I'm either voting Liberal, Green, or NDP.

The Cons, guilty of hipocracy at best and soiling homosexuals, youth, veterans, women, and the charter at worst, will never, ever get my vote.

I'm proud to say as a Canadian, I'm pro-equality, pro-youth, pro-veteran, pro-woman and pro-charter!

Too bad Conservatives cannot say the same with ANY credibility!

[Littlefinger]

The last person in the world who wants an election now is Harper. Just call this poll the Belinda bounce!

BTW I have just checked and the accurate EKOS poll results are as follows:

Libs: 34.7%

Cons: 28.3%

NDP: 18.4%

After all the shouting and yelling, basically no change from the 2004 election results.

Ontario is especially devastating for the Cons trailing the Libs by 15%.

Go Belinda Go! 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ooops, sorry, that was a typo. I really did mean to type in 34.7...

[Black Dog]

Again, we have a lot of ranting and raving by Conservative supporters about Liberal corruption (which no one in their right mind disputes). But what's still missing is any compelling reason to turn the keys over to Harper and the gang. Outrage will only take you so far. At a certain point you have to tell people why you're a credible alternative. "We won't be as corrupt as the other guys" isn't a complelling message. The Cons haven't done that. They've overplayed the outrage hand.

[takeanumber]

There is no compelling reason to hand the keys over to Harper.

In fact, what should be most insulting to Conservatives is that GIVEN the corruption in Quebec, people would still RATHER vote for the Liberals than to even RISK a Conservative government.

I'll break it down like this:

The same people who have run Alberta since the eighties and the same people who ran Ontario in the Nineties want to run Canada.

If you want Canada to resemble Harris' Ontario, or modern day Klein's Alberta...then go ahead and vote Conservative. You'll love it.

If you want a better society than that vision, you'll vote for centre or centre-left party.

It's just that simple.

There are some here who will defend the callousness of Harris or the corruption, neglect and arrogance of Klein. I suspect that they're going to contribute posts in support of that vision.

Just remember AISH. Just remember AISH. That's the portrait of what Conservative governments do.

[I miss Reagan]

In fact, what should be most insulting to Conservatives is that GIVEN the corruption in Quebec, people would still RATHER vote for the Liberals than to even RISK a Conservative government.

Oh we're insulted. Albertans take it personally, as an affront to the West.

[Black Dog]

Oh we're insulted. Albertans take it personally, as an affront to the West.

Alberta!=the West

EKOS poll

B.C.

36% Lib

28% NDP

27% Con

09% Grn

Alberta

52% Con

28% Lib

15% NDP

06% Grn

SK & MB

37% Con

30% NDP

28% Lib

03% Grn

[I miss Reagan]

Alberta

52% Con

28% Lib

15% NDP

06% Grn

Stop, you're making me blush. Gosh, I love this place. A proud pinnacle of integrity and honor!

[Guest eureka]

The Poll confirms something I have been saying for weeks since the Sponsorship ranting first appeared on the forums. That is that the Bloc share has hardly moved since the last election. I still expect it to decline once the TV entertainment series is over.

A notable factor in the Poll that is not getting much commentary is that the NDP is now the second choice of 28% of the electorate. That is a huge shift and brings in the possibility of large gains at the expense of both the Liberals and the Conservatives depending on the concentrations of support and the size of majorities.

Can you say a Layton/Harper coalition with Jack as No.1.?

[Black Dog]

Stop, you're making me blush. Gosh, I love this place. A proud pinnacle of integrity and honor!

Uh...

Oh we're insulted. Albertans take it personally, as an affront to the West.

The rest of the west doesn't seem affronted. So your original statement should have read:

"Albertans take it personally as an affront to Albertans who oppose Eastern corruption (as oppossed to Alberta corruption, which we think is just dandy)"