Federal Election Rumours

[August1991]

Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe says he's put all 54 of his MPs on alert for an election unless Prime Minister Paul Martin addresses key demands in the upcoming federal budget.

CBC

Is it not strange that PM PM only talked about same sex marriage and the budget for his upcoming programme?

The polls show the Liberals doing well.

What are the chances we get a nice budget with something to irk the opposition leading to the BQ/CPC voting against? (Say, a budget provision left of centre that stands up for the federal government.)

[Stoker]

What are the chances we get a nice budget with something to irk the opposition leading to the BQ/CPC voting against? (Say, a budget provision left of centre that stands up for the federal government.)

I'm sure if that was the case, you might see a sudden wave of the Flu hit the Tories and the Bloc parties on budget day

[kimmy]

Layton and Duceppe both have aggressive agendas for this budget and threaten dire consequences if they don't get their way.

The CPC presumably doesn't want to fight another election before they have their policy convention. They could easily provide Martin with enough votes to pass the budget regardless of what Duceppe and Layton threaten. Would Martin really put something in the budget so unpalatable to CPC members that they'd have to join the BQ and NDP in attempting to defeat it?

-kimmy

[WageSlave]

Is it not strange that PM PM only talked about same sex marriage and the budget for his upcoming programme?

The polls show the Liberals doing well.

They may possibly be waiting for the Iran war to go down. If they stay out of it, this might get them some votes.

[August1991]

The CPC presumably doesn't want to fight another election before they have their policy convention. They could easily provide Martin with enough votes to pass the budget regardless of what Duceppe and Layton threaten. Would Martin really put something in the budget so unpalatable to CPC members that they'd have to join the BQ and NDP in attempting to defeat it?

In theory, if the CPC and BQ both vote against, then the government will fall. And both the BQ and CPC have principles. I suspect that PM PM wants to position the Liberals a little to the left and a little more nationalistic. He's aiming for 10 seats in Quebec and 10 seats in Ontario. Then he'll have his majority.

It would not be hard to present a "popular" policy and then watch Harper take the wrong side and the BQ go into a frazzle over its theoretical implications for Quebec's sovereignty.

The beauty of the strategy is that if the CPC or BQ back down, he still wins.

I would expect something about, for example, spending the EI surplus somehow.

The polls are not as good as I thought for the Liberals. They're bouncing around the high 30s. The Liberals want to be over 40.

They may possibly be waiting for the Iran war to go down.

Iran? War? Canadian election? This is a joke, right?

[Stoker]

August, by chance, do you have a link to any site that posts Canadian political polls?

I always hear talk of polls........I wanna see them damnit

[August1991]

Liberals at 39%:

Angus Reid October 2004

Liberals at 37%

Environics Jan 2005

In the margin of error so the true number might be, say, 38%. Needless to say, the Liberals in the PMO are doing polls all the time. BTW, the Liberals got 36.7% in June 2004.

[willy]

http://erg.environics.net/news/default.asp?aID=571

This is a month old but it has regional breakdowns. Until we see a significant difference in Quebec we will not see an election.

August, the Conservatives show what looks to be a good bump in Quebec. Any interpertation on the numbers. (not that they are close to winning any seats)

[Digby]

Would you Beleave I Voted NDP last election .(Only because of local Canidate)

What a waste of my Vote ! Even had their sign on my lawn !

I would never vote NDP again in this life time , I don't care if my wife run for them .

Going back to the right where I belong .

The only reason i ever left the right was crooked Brian Murunies Goverment , them old crooks must be mostly gone by now i hope !

[Stoker]

Majority (71%) of Canadians Believe Election Call On Same-Sex Issue Not Justified

I have to say, I'm not suprised with the results.......

What I do find intresting, is that how it appears the NDP would lose seats to the Liberals.......

[August1991]

August, the Conservatives show what looks to be a good bump in Quebec. Any interpertation on the numbers. (not that they are close to winning any seats)

Thanks for that link, Willy.

I think the small CPC boost in Quebec is just random bounce. The upcoming Tory policy convention may have an effect.

Overall, looking at the numbers, it is surprising how stable they are since the June election. To win a majority, PM PM will have to do more to win back seats in Quebec and Ontario.

-----

I speak too soon. If that Ipsos-Reid poll is right, and the Liberals maintain their 41%, then we'll have an election this year.

Trudeau lasted from Oct 72 to Jul 74. Clark from May 79 to Feb 80.

There is too much bad blood between these guys to make a functioning minority government last long. It works now simply by fear.

As to the NDP angle, the Liberals paint Harper as some kind of Damien type creature. It's a vote winner in Ontario and some urban ridings where the soft NDP and non-voting young go Liberal.

[willy]

I would be surprised to see the Liberals go to the polls this year for a different reason.

With the new election finance rules that just came in last year the grass roots are having a hard time coming up with the big cheques they use to. They need more time to line the coffers.

Corporate donations are limited to $1000.00 a year and with the new auditing process each riding association has extra expectations and resources dedicated to auditing.

This is equal in all parties and will impact the readiness or leave them open to more accusations of corruptions if they bend the rules.

[August1991]

I would be surprised to see the Liberals go to the polls this year for a different reason.

Do you really think this would stop the Liberals causing an election if the polls are consistently in the 40s? The Liberals shovelled government money to ad agencies which then shovelled it to the Liberal Party. The Liberals then got re-elected. The Liberals signed up busses and airplanes to get people to Montreal in 1995 to "save Canada". They would do the same all over again to protect Canada from that dangerous anti-Christ with the black hair and icy blue eyes.

Harper and the Tories had better think now very, very carefully about how they will respond to the demonization.

Any thoughts on Reynolds as campaign chairman?

[willy]

You are right that the Libs would go and end up in debt if they could win majority.

Fortunately for the Cons, Quebec is not bouncing back for the Libs and rural Ontario is improving for the Cons. The national numbers are staying the same but there have been shifts. Cons losing support in AB for instance but they are still way ahead. The Cons need to do a little more work in BC as they could loose even more seats here if they are not careful.

Reynolds as campaign chair? Don't know yet, he is respected and experienced.

Four members of the Conservatives have come out in support of same sex marriage and Harper still supports them. This may help some of the demonization.

What will really help is if the Liberals take on the Ontario manufacturing base with implementing Kyoto in the next year. People fear losing there jobs more than they fear the traditional definition of marriage.

Right now this is like predicting the next years economy. Way too many variables to guess which ones will resonate with the public when they get in the voters both. For that reason as well I think the Libs will want to continue on for a while.

[Newfie Canadian]

Well, the next big test comes on the Feb. 23 with the federal budget.

And while all parties say theu aren't willing to have an election over it, but you never know.

For that reason as well I think the Libs will want to continue on for a while.

I agree, unless the Liberals can engineer their own defeat in the House in such a way as to vilify the CPC and the Bloc, if that's possible, or at least one of them.

[Stoker]

Intresting:

Tories up across Canada

Ontario:

Liberal: 44% (-10%)

CPC: 32% (+6%)

NDP: 18% (+2%)

Atlantic:

Liberal: 41% (-10%)

CPC: 30% (+8%)

NDP: 25% (+1%)

West:

Liberal: 34% (+1%)

CPC: 40% (+2%)

NDP: 21%

Quebec:

Bloc: 45% (no change)

Liberal: 36% (+4%)

CPC: 10% (+1%)

NDP: 7% (-3%)

Canada:

Liberal: 38% (-3%)

CPC: 29% (+3%)

NDP: 17% (no change)

Bloc: 11% (no change)

Green: 5% (-1%)

Undecided: 12% (-2%)

Though I won't plan the Tory victory party at my house yet, I must admit, this does sound good when compared to the numbers posted by August a few weeks ago......

I wonder what the cause of this national shift is? SSM? Gomery?

[August1991]

I note Ontario where this SES poll had a sample size of 262.

June 2004 Election Ontario

Liberal 44.7%

CPC 31.5%

NDP 18.1%

I see no change from the election.

[Fortunata]

And both the BQ and CPC have principles.

LOL, you're kidding about CPC having principles right? McKay and his, I promise I won't merge with the Alliance/Reform? Harper pretending he was a more a moderate during the election campaign and now turning out to be a fundy?

C'mon, wake up and smell the coffee.

[August1991]

McKay and his, I promise I won't merge with the Alliance/Reform?

This is politics and David Orchard had to be disposed of.

Harper pretending he was a more a moderate during the election campaign and now turning out to be a fundy?

Harper is a fundy because he supports gay civil unions? Huh?

----

My point was that the BQ have principles in that they favour the sovereignty of Quebec or at least will not knowingly vote against Quebec's interests. The Tories have principles in that they favour smaller government.

I gather you don't like those principles. Fine, that is your right.

The NDP have principles and in general favour more government intervention in Canadian society.

The Liberals, on the other hand, seem to have no discernible principles except forming a government.

[knn]

Stoker Posted: Feb 13 2005, 07:16 PM

Though I won't plan the Tory victory party at my house...

No, I wouldn't throw a "tory victory party" yet...

Latest poll by EKOS Research, out today,shows an increase for the Liberals and the NDP, and sharp decline for the Conservative party.

"Liberals within range of majority

OTTAWA—The federal Liberals are within striking distance of majority government, according to a new Toronto Star poll.

The poll, conducted by EKOS Research Associates, shows the Liberals at 40.2 per cent support nationally, up from the 36.7 per cent they obtained in last June's election.

The increase seems to be coming at the expense of the Conservatives, whose national support slipped back to 26.5 per cent..."

EKOS POLL RESULTS - Click Here

[Guest eureka]

I wonder whether modern "Conservatives" do have principles. Smaller government under the last Tory administration led to a larger government service. It was reduced later under Chretien.

I think that modern Conservatives favour smaller government only in those areas that are not particularly reflective of government for the "public good" but only for the Tory good.