Conservative byelection win in Quebec

[turningrite]

A news report indicates the Conservative candidate easily won today's Chicoutimi-Le Fjord byelection with more than 50 percent of the votes cast. The Conservatives ran 4th in the riding in the 2015 general election, suggesting that opposition to the Trudeau government is coalescing around the Conservative Party. The NDP and Bloc support sunk to single-digit levels in both cases. The result seems surprising given that this riding has a large aluminum production industry and Trudeau had appeared to gain support with his response to Trump's attack on Canada's steel and aluminum industries. The illegal migrant crisis may have undermined Liberal support, which could pose a big problem for Trudeau's crew in 2019 if the issue isn't resolved very soon. Is it time for Trudeau to look roll out "Plan B" if he wants to hold onto power next year as "sunny ways" has apparently lost its allure?

Edited June 19, 2018 by turningrite

[cannuck]

The Canadian public has an extremely short memory and has often vote with absolutely no idea of what the consequences could be.  Witness the repeated damage to the country by re-electing PET over, and over, and over.   We had a really good, responsible, mature and effective PM coming into the last election.  Instead of voting for his party, Canadians chose a drama queen...oh damn I am sorry, a drama TEACHER and a slate of politically correct candidates - and are surprised by the outcome!

[Michael Hardner]

It's odd to me when we complain about the Trudeau era, because economic nationalism and deficit spending seem to be 'in' again with some right-of-centre types.  And the weird thing is that opposition to that frame of thought is giving PM Trudeau a boost in the polls.

If it's ok to mock a politician for being a drama teacher, then I suppose it's laudable to mock one for being a hashish dealer.  

[Centerpiece]

29 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

It's odd to me when we complain about the Trudeau era, because economic nationalism and deficit spending seem to be 'in' again with some right-of-centre types.  And the weird thing is that opposition to that frame of thought is giving PM Trudeau a boost in the polls.

If it's ok to mock a politician for being a drama teacher, then I suppose it's laudable to mock one for being a hashish dealer.  

It might not be "economic" but if you want to see nationalism in action for the common person - just watch the World Cup. Globalism may be trendy with the elites but when you strip away all the noise, people still love their countries, their flags and the uniqueness of their people and culture. Except the Trudeau Canadian vision of course - that bland, post national version that he touts.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Centerpiece

[Michael Hardner]

48 minutes ago, Centerpiece said:

  Except the Trudeau Canadian vision of course - that bland, post national version that he touts.

World Cup seems to be promoted by CBC et al as a great example of multiculturalism working.  Certainly Radio 1 talks about the WC, and brings attention to the street celebrations as part of Toronto culture.

[Centerpiece]

2 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

World Cup seems to be promoted by CBC et al as a great example of multiculturalism working.  Certainly Radio 1 talks about the WC, and brings attention to the street celebrations as part of Toronto culture.

Yes, the CBC would, wouldn't they?

[scribblet]

Quite a feat to have won that riding considering Trudeau pork barrelled 60 million into it.

[turningrite]

40 minutes ago, scribblet said:

Quite a feat to have won that riding considering Trudeau pork barrelled 60 million into it.

I think the extent of the win is the most surprising aspect. The Conservatives apparently had a very popular local candidate this time around and the Libs only won the riding in 2015 by a whisker. Interpreting byelection results, of course, is like reading tea leaves, but I think there are some important issues that Trudeau's government will have to consider, including the impact of the migration crisis, which Trudeau carelessly worsened, as well as whether the trade battle with the U.S. will actually benefit Trudeau, as I think many Libs believe it will if Trudeau keeps playing the 'Captain Canada' role. On this latter point, Trudeau's stance didn't help much in a riding where it should have mattered.

[Argus]

3 hours ago, scribblet said:

Quite a feat to have won that riding considering Trudeau pork barrelled 60 million into it.

The NDP vote collapsed, which is perhaps a taste of what will happen in the next federal election. I don't think Quebecers are going to go for a party led by a guy in a turban.

[AngusThermopyle]

8 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

I

If it's ok to mock a politician for being a drama teacher, then I suppose it's laudable to mock one for being a hashish dealer.  

This always amuses me. Apparently Ford selling some Hash when he was a teenager is a big deal, but Trudeau wanting to be the biggest single drug dealer in the world is just hunky dory.

[AngusThermopyle]

5 hours ago, turningrite said:

 as well as whether the trade battle with the U.S. will actually benefit Trudeau, as I think many Libs believe it will if Trudeau keeps playing the 'Captain Canada' role. On this latter point, Trudeau's stance didn't help much in a riding where it should have mattered.

This too is turning into a bag of sh*t for Trudeau. Now that the truth is coming out about the whole affair, that Trump made concessions to Trudeau regarding NAFTA. Well...people aren't too impressed with Trudeau trying to play the big man. In fact all I'm hearing now is people saying that they don't blame Trump for being supremely pissed at Trudeau. He didn't help his case at all in QP when the Conservatives specifically asked him about Trump conceding regarding the sunset clause, he then pulled his usual shtick, refusing to answer the very simple question he was asked. The word now is that this whole mess was caused simply by Trudeau's desire to boost his image with Canadians.

[Michael Hardner]

55 minutes ago, AngusThermopyle said:

This always amuses me. Apparently Ford selling some Hash when he was a teenager is a big deal, but Trudeau wanting to be the biggest single drug dealer in the world is just hunky dory.

Well, there's the whole thing about it being legal and all.   But you can equate them if you like.

[capricorn]

8 hours ago, scribblet said:

Quite a feat to have won that riding considering Trudeau pork barrelled 60 million into it.

Yeah, Trudeau must have thought a win was in the bag. He miscalculated the level of his popularity in the riding by falling prey to polls that showed an uptick in his favorable numbers following the G7 and exchanges with Trump. In fact, the reason for his positive numbers in the polls was not a reflection of his personal popularity but a vote of approval for the Government of Canada.

Edited June 19, 2018 by capricorn

[AngusThermopyle]

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Well, there's the whole thing about it being legal and all.   But you can equate them if you like.

Marijuana is legal? When did that happen? Of course it's ever so convenient when you get to make the laws you want, that provides a nice out.

[Centerpiece]

Is this just "the end of the beginning" for Conservatives in Quebec - or the "beginning of the end" for the Liberals? If the collapse of the NDP vote is prescient of what's to come, it may very well help the Conservatives if the issues fall against the Liberals. The by-election seemed to indicate that the NDP and Bloc votes went mostly to the Conservatives. Looking forward to 2019, it will likely be a two-horse race in Quebec and if the Conservatives can recruit well-known candidates to campaign against marginal incumbents, the Conservatives could pick up a surprising number of seats - at a time that the Liberals will need to retain them. It's reasonable to assume that they will not win all 32 maritime seats again - and will lose some in BC through pipeline politics. It could end up being Battleground Ontario.

Other contributing Quebec factors are that the Trudeau name doesn't carry a lot of weight outside of Montreal - and the Liberals won a lot of ridings because of the 4 way vote splitting with several being very close. It's also not that well known that the Conservatives have been working hard in multiple Quebec regions.

The 2019 Federal election is shaping up to be far more interesting than I would have thought.

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, AngusThermopyle said:

Marijuana is legal? When did that happen? Of course it's ever so convenient when you get to make the laws you want, that provides a nice out.

You are playing games.  If that's the best you can do, then I'm ok with that.

[turningrite]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

You are playing games.  If that's the best you can do, then I'm ok with that.

It appears that Angus is correct. He's merely asked you to substantiate your apparent contention that marijuana is legal, as per your dismissive interjection that "...there's the whole thing about it being legal and all."  Don't the Rules and Guidelines require you to actually prove your contention now that you've challenged the validity of his position? The Senate just passed the necessary legislation today and it likely won't be proclaimed into law for several weeks, or perhaps for a few months. Hint: Until it's proclaimed into law it's not technically legal. Who's playing games here? Not Angus, I think.

[Michael Hardner]

7 hours ago, turningrite said:

It appears that Angus is correct. He's merely asked you to substantiate your apparent contention that marijuana is legal, as per your dismissive interjection that "...there's the whole thing about it being legal and all."  Don't the Rules and Guidelines require you to actually prove your contention now that you've challenged the validity of his position? 

Now you are playing games also.  Sure, I will spell out this baby-simple point:

We are comparing two situations:

1) Doug Ford, when cannabis was illegal, was involved in selling it

2) Justin Trudeau, our PM, is fulfilling a campaign promise to change the laws around cannabis.

Also - teaching drama is an honourable profession and not illegal, I might add.

[capricorn]

19 hours ago, Argus said:

I don't think Quebecers are going to go for a party led by a guy in a turban.

Quebecers were under the thumb of the Roman Catholic church for far too long before they rejected living by strict religious rules in every aspect of their life. Singh, with his overt advertising of his faith, is a reminder of being governed (oppressed) by the church.

There will be a byelection in Outremont, Mulcair's riding and Singh is said to be seriously considering running there. Big mistake, according to Chantal Hebert.

Quote

Outremont is a diverse riding but that does not automatically translate into an edge for a visible minority leader such as Singh.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2018/04/13/running-in-quebecs-outremont-would-be-a-risky-move-for-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh.html

[turningrite]

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Now you are playing games also.  Sure, I will spell out this baby-simple point:

We are comparing two situations:

1) Doug Ford, when cannabis was illegal, was involved in selling it

2) Justin Trudeau, our PM, is fulfilling a campaign promise to change the laws around cannabis.

Also - teaching drama is an honourable profession and not illegal, I might add.

Maybe you could have been explicit in making your point when responding to Angus' post? My point is that you attacked it without proving your assertion that "...there's the whole thing about it being legal and all." Hey, we've got to interpret your statements literally. Now, it seems you're moving the goalposts. It won't work. You don't get to make up your own rules. As for Trudeau background as a drama teacher, I said nothing about it. I, too, think Trudeau's a lightweight but I have nothing against drama teachers per se.

[Michael Hardner]

1 minute ago, turningrite said:

1) My point is that you attacked it without proving your assertion that "...there's the whole thing about it being legal and all." 

2) Now, it seems you're moving the goalposts. A

3) As for Trudeau background as a drama teacher, I said nothing about it. I, too, think Trudeau's a lightweight but I have nothing against drama teachers per se.

1) I guess my mistake was in assuming people would not need clarification to differentiate between a two-bit 80s street hash dealer, and a Prime Minister who is fulfilling a promise to change the legal system.

2) No it's ok.  I will take it in good faith that people somehow misunderstood the differences in 1) and admit to being unclear.  I concur.

3) Ok, good.  The arts are a great way to teach children teamwork, project work, and empathy also and we should fund more arts teaching.

[Centerpiece]

10 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

1) I guess my mistake was in assuming people would not need clarification to differentiate between a two-bit 80s street hash dealer, and a Prime Minister who is fulfilling a promise to change the legal system.

 

Ford was never charged, let alone convicted. All just rumours. If you think the rumours have credibility, then you might want to consider giving credibility to the Trudeau Groping Affair - which at least was reported in a newspaper. That's the trouble with rumours and innuendo - it can cut both ways.

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, Centerpiece said:

...you might want to consider giving credibility to the Trudeau Groping Affair - which at least was reported in a newspaper. That's the trouble with rumours and innuendo - it can cut both ways.

Both ways how ??  Of course I give credibility to the Trudeau Groping Affair.  Do you think I wouldn't because I refuse to call Trudeau a two-bit dope dealer ?  It's ok to have good and bad thoughts about a politician.  It's actually perfectly ok.

[H10]

On 6/19/2018 at 12:47 PM, Argus said:

The NDP vote collapsed, which is perhaps a taste of what will happen in the next federal election. I don't think Quebecers are going to go for a party led by a guy in a turban.

That will strongly benefit the liberals, Harper may have left a poison pill for his successor.  By destroying the NDP, you make all the left wing majority vote go for liberals, dumb, dumb move.  NDP vote will collapse in Quebec because Quebeckers see Jagmeet Singh with his big towel head as a religious zealot which most Quebeckers heavily reject.So expect all of Mulclair's work to go down the drain, liberals might hang on in 2019.

[Centerpiece]

8 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Both ways how ??  Of course I give credibility to the Trudeau Groping Affair.  Do you think I wouldn't because I refuse to call Trudeau a two-bit dope dealer ?  It's ok to have good and bad thoughts about a politician.  It's actually perfectly ok.

They really were just unproven allegations but yes -  your opinion of Ford is now coarsely clear. You detest the man. Got it.