Latest Federal Opinion Poll

[maplesyrup]

SES Research

1,000 Canadians, +/- 3.1%, 19/20

Party

Liberals: 41%

Conservatives: 26%

New Democrats: 17%

Bloc: 11%

Green: 6%

Best choice for PM

PM Martin: 35%

Harper: 17%

Layton: 14%

Duceppe: 9%

This is a standard size poll, and it is interesting to note that all the leaders are less popular than their parties, Harper particularly so, and if one takes into consideration the poll's margin of error, Layton is tied with Harper amongst Canadians for their choice of leader.

[maplesyrup]

Conservatives will probably give Harper one more kick at the can, before they ask him to move on.

[realwannabe]

funny , the support for Liberals didnt dropped due to SSM, neither did the NDP.

The liberal and NDP combined together constitute a 58 percent majority of Canadians. And the BQ is left leanning too, good job.

The Conservatives is dying.

NDP plus BQ plus Green - all relatively left leanning parties, constitute 34 percent of the voters. WOW. That suppressed the Conservative.

[Stoker]

So how does that translate into seats?

[Hawk]

You know MS, maybe you should just stop spewing liberal crap all over the forums and start discussing actual issues? Who cares about polls and popularity reports and whatever other crap the Fiberals rely on to sleep at night?

Seriously all I ever see you doing is ignoring any rational argument against you and instead of spending time to defend your argument you call them names or post another opinion poll. Dont you have any opinions of your own? Seriously, you need to get out more and learn to debate.

[maplesyrup]

Let's put it this way:

Liberals in 2000 got 41% of the vote and 173 seats out of 301 seats.

Liberals in 1997 got 38% of the vote and 155 seats out of 301 seats.

Liberals in 1993 got 41% of the vote and 177 seats out of 295 seats.

All majority governments.

[Stoker]

Yes MS, but that was then, this is now........couldn't this poll indicate that Liberal support is stronger in urban areas? Or could this mean the current Liberal ridings have increased their populartity? Could the Tories have lost support in ridings in areas that they don't currently hold seats?

[realwannabe]

It means that the First past the post system is corrupted.

[kimmy]

It means that the First past the post system is corrupted.

It's not corrupted. It works exactly the way it's supposed to.

It just doesn't fit in very well with a multi-party system.

-kimmy

[maplesyrup]

But we have a multi-party system, and have had one for a long time. We have four and maybe we will have five parties soon. FPTP is not working for Canadians.

[kimmy]

uh huh

[Pateris]

maplesyrup - if we have proportional representation, that would likely lead to separatism in western canada. Because the conservatives would NEVER gain power, and the parts of Canada that are conservative would get VERY frustrated.

[realwannabe]

Liberal would not have a majority government either if we have PR. The whole dynamic would change, you cant say whats going to happen. Actually it would be good for Alberta, because right now, FPTP is favoring the Liberals.

[Pateris]

realwannabe,

actually, it would be BAD for alberta, because while it would reduce Liberal seats, it would increase NDP and Green seats - the total number of Conservative MPs would be lower.

[mirror]

Party/Today/June 28/Election 2004/Change

Lib / 36% / 35% / 37% / Down 1%

Con / 28% / 27% / 30% / Down 2%

NDP / 17% / 18% / 16% / Up 1%

Grits NOT gaining: poll

The federal Liberals have not been able to capitalize on image problems that have plagued Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to boost their standing in the polls, a new survey suggests.

The proportion of Canadians who would vote for the Liberals is 36%, up a notch from a previous survey in June, and still only eight points ahead of the Conservatives, whose support also edged up a point to 28%, according to a new Ipsos Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global.

The Liberals will need to do something -- such as give voters a pre-election budget of tax cuts and other goodies -- if they are to escape minority status in the next election, said Ipsos Reid President Darrell Bricker.

"If a budget is it, then probably a budget sometime in November or December, or maybe even early January, and that's where you are going to see things such as tax relief and other things," Mr. Bricker said.

"As bad as Harper is, and as bad a summer as he has had, the Liberals haven't been able to extend their lead on the Conservatives."

After star Conservative MP Belinda Stronach defected to the Liberals and the Tories failed to bring down the government, Mr. Harper was further embarrassed by Conservative MP Gurmant Grewal's secret taping fiasco and an unflattering photo of Mr. Harper in a comical cowboy outfit.

"The Liberals have not moved as one would have expected them to move," Mr. Bricker said. "They are still at the level they were going into the last federal election campaign, and we know they have a tendency to lose support during the course of a campaign." 

[mirror]

"Nearly one in five Canadians -- 19%, up from 13% in June -- say they are undecided, refuse to say for whom they would vote, or would not vote if a federal election were held tomorrow. That includes 22% in Quebec, up from 13% in June."

National

L - 36%, up 1%

C - 28%, up 1%

N - 17%, down 1%

Atlantic Region

L - 46, down 6%

C - 31%, up 6%

N - 17%, down 1%

Quebec

B - 47%, down 4%

L - 26%, down 1%

C - 12%, up 5%

N - 9%, down 1%

Ontario

L - 45%, up 3%

C - 29%, up 1%

N - 19%, down 2%

Sask & Man

C - 34%, down 1%

N - 32%, up 6%

L - 29%, down 4%

Alberta

C - 56%, down 7%

L - 24%, up 8%

N - 13%, up 1%

British Columbia

L - 38%, up 3%

N - 25%, down 1%

C - 25%, down 2%

[Guest Warwick Green]

funny , the support for Liberals didnt dropped due to SSM, neither did the NDP.

Why would it? Half the population support SSM. Very few people bought the argument of the religious right that SSM would "destroy" religion and heterosexuality. The biggest problem is for Harper. If he is forced by the so-cons to make SSM a big issue in the next election we can all watch Steve march his ever-dwindling band of merry tories right down the toilet.

[mirror]

SES Research NationState Poll - Martin and Harper: Potential Successors

Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows that Frank McKenna is the top choice to succeed Prime Minister Martin while Peter MacKay edges out former Ontario Premier Mike Harrier as the choice to succeed Conservative Leader Stephen Harper.

"On the Liberal side, Frank McKenna has a noticeable lead among Canadians and among committed Liberal voters. He leads in every region except in Ontario, where polling shows former NDP Ontario Premier Bob Rae leads McKenna by a margin of three points."

"On the Conservative side, Peter MacKay is the top choice among committed Tory voters (30%). The field tightens with MacKay (17%) and Mike Harris (15%) in a statistical tie with Bernard Lord trailing closely (13%).

Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Potential Martin Successors (N=1,000, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).

Question: Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Paul Martin as Liberal leader? (READ AND ROTATE) Former federal Justice Minister Martin Cauchon, Harvard Professor Michael Ignatieff, Former Deputy Prime Minister John Manley, Former New Brunswick Premier Frank McKenna, Former Ontario Premier Bob Rae or is there someone else?

Frank McKenna 23% (Liberal voters 28%)

Bob Rae 11% (Liberal voters 11%)

John Manley 11% (Liberal voters 13%)

Martin Cauchon 4% (Liberal voters 4%)

Michael Ignatieff 4% (Liberal voters 4%)                   

Other* 4% (Liberal voters 4%)

Undecided 43% (Liberal voters 37%)

* Note: fewer than five responses

Potential Harper Successors (N=1,000, MoE ±3.1%, 19 times out of 20).

Regardless of how you vote, who would be your choice to succeed Stephen Harper as Conservative Leader? (READ AND ROTATE) Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris, New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord, Deputy Conservative Leader Peter MacKay, Conservative MP Jim Prentice, or is there someone else?

Peter MacKay 17% (Conservative voters 30%)                   

Mike Harris 15% (Conservative voters 21%)                   

Bernard Lord 13% (Conservative voters 12%)                   

Jean Charest 9% (Conservative voters 6%)                 

Jim Prentice 3% (Conservative voters 5%)                   

Other* 2% (Conservative voters 2%)                   

Undecided 41% (Conservative voters 25%)

* Note: fewer than five responses

McKenna:

The Liberals must have a death wish! Anyway it is gonna be a francophone as they always alternate. Cauchon perhaps.

MacKay: Same goes for the Conservatives. He'll never cut it as PM. It is probably gonna be Lord.

Interesting though. I guess most Canadians are quite content with New Democrat Party leader Jack Layton.

[mirror]

If either of these two parties were wise, which they often don't seem to be, they would change their leaders as both PM Martin & Harper are albatrosses around their respective party's neck. I don't remember a time when party leaders were so unpopular with Canadian voters. Jeez!!!

SES- Sun Media Poll - Martin and Harper: What would Canadians change

Our national survey completed Monday August 8, 2005 shows that a plurality of Canadians with an opinion want Prime Minister Paul Martin to be more transparent/accountable/honest (15.5%). When Canadians were asked what they would change about Stephen Harper, the number one formed opinion was that everything should be changed (8.7%).

"Polling indicates that there is still some residual image drag resulting from the advertising scandal for Prime Minister Paul Martin."

"Compared to Paul Martin, not as many Canadians have formed opinions of what they would change about Stephen Harper. One of two (51%) Canadians could not form an opinion of changes to Harper compared to 38% for Paul Martin."

Polling August 4th to August 8th, 2005 random telephone survey of 1,000 Canadians, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Paul Martin (N=1,000, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).

If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Prime Minister Paul Martin, what would it be? [unprompted]

Be more transparent/accountable/honest - 15.5%                      

Be more aggressive/decisive/get a backbone - 7.8%                   

Change policy positions - 7.3%                                 

Change everything/new leader - 5.1%                                 

Be more down to earth/listen to Canadians - 4.7%                    

Change his attitude/be less arrogant - 3.0%      

Too close to Bush/stand up to Americans - 2.4%

Too close to big business/CSL loopholes - 2.3%                

Change nothing - 2.1%

Other (Answers with less than 2%) - 11.4%      

Unsure - 11.5%

No Answer - 26.9%      

Stephen Harper (N=1,000, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20).

If there were one thing that you could change, if anything, about Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, what would it be? [unprompted]

Change everything/new leader - 8.7%                                 

Be more open-minded - 5.8%                  

Have more personality/better image - 5.3%                           

Change policy positions - 4.7%                                      

Be less conservative/religious - 4.0%                               

Be more honest/have more integrity - 2.3%                           

Change his attitude/be less arrogant - 2.0%                         

Be more charismatic/inspire Canadians - 2.0%                

Other (Answers with less than 2%) - 14.4%       

Unsure - 18.4%

No Answer - 32.4%

[shoop]

It's interesting that Prentice is even on the radar.

Prentice has the potential of being a very good choice.

In the last PC leadership he was able to draw support from the social cons despite being a true Red Tory.

He is one of the only Conservative MPs who voted in favour of SSM.

He is moderate enough to overcome fears of the scary Albertans, but can he win the leadership?

[mirror]

I think Prentice has potential as well but the Conservatives should chose a francophone next time around, as they really need to establish themselves in Quebec.

[shoop]

They can't get too stuck on picking a leader just for demographic reasons.

Lord is a possibility but he pissed off a lot of people in the party by pulling out at the last minute in 2004.

Kim Campbell is the warning about picking a leader for optics, and not making them earn the nomination.

Maybe they could get Mario Dumont to run in the next election and groom him as a potential leader. It isn't all that far-fetched. He did encourage Quebeckers to vote Conservative in 2004.

[Argus]

The Liberals must have a death wish! Anyway it is gonna be a francophone as they always alternate. Cauchon perhaps.

Why is Paul Martin an Anglophone?

[shoop]

Why is Paul Martin an Anglophone?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Because the Liberals always alternate. Jean Chretien was a francophone ergo Paul Martin must be an anglophone.

[mirror]

Of course PM Martin is an anglo. Just like Chretien used to ham it up that his English wasn't good, Martin likes to ham it up that he is a franco. Both for political reasons of course.