Cruz On The Way, 2016 Election USA

[Exegesisme]

Cruz won big in Kansas and won Maine by a smaller margin. Trump won Louisiana by a narrow margin and Tennessee by a healthy margin, so it looks like the delegate race doesn't change by much.

Terrible day for Marco Rubio.

Cruz won delegates on Saturday: Louisiana 14+ Kentucky 14 + Kansas 24 + Maine 12 = 64 in total

Trump won delegates on Saturday: Louisiana 15+ Kentucky 16 + Kansas 9 + Maine 9 = 49 in total

Information of Louisiana may not accurate, there may be 17 more delegates waiting for distribution among runners.

Tennessee is not seen on Saturday.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Exegesisme

[kimmy]

My mistake. For some reason I thought Tennessee instead of Kentucky.

The trend that's becoming apparent is that Cruz wins "caucus" states (where committed party-people decide the outcome) while Trump wins "open" states (where newcomers and casual voters can affect the outcome).

-k

[Exegesisme]

So Cruz may be more likely to get support from GOP, and Trump may be more injuried from his own more controversy campaign. The results on super Saturday, as well as on super Tuesday, prefer Cruz much more than the poll numbers, which prefer Trump much more than Cruz.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Exegesisme]

upcoming key states and poll numbers and prediction for Cruz

idaho

mar 8

32 delegates

January 21–31, 2016 Donald Trump31% Ted Cruz19%

https://www.isidewith.com/2016-republican-primary-poll/801555698/9333312

michigan

mar 8

59 delegates

mar 5 Trump 31, Cruz 15, Kasich 33, Rubio 11

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-republican/

mississippi

mar 8

40 delegates

mar 2 Trump 41, Cruz 17, Rubio 16, Kasich 8, Carson 5

http://www.270towin.com/2016-republican-nomination/mississippi-primary

Prediction for Cruz：

Results may be over the poll numbers, the most likely win may be Idaho, the second likely win may be Mississippi.

Carson may very likely become important supporter of Cruz.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Argus]

You will see at the end of his mandate. I mean that Cruz has the same level of intelligence and morality of Obama, which is important for dealing the legacy of Obama.

Cruz is often called the sleaziest, most self serving weasel of a politician in the entire US congress - and by his own party.

[Exegesisme]

Cruz is often called the sleaziest, most self serving weasel of a politician in the entire US congress - and by his own party.

You may improve your life if you try to look for something to learn from whom you dislike.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-heidicruz-idUSKBN0TY1MD20151215

Edited March 6, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Topaz]

Could Cruz win against Clinton? The news said that her IT guy was given immunity and I keep hearing she may be arrested and so would it be Bernie against Trump or Cruz?

[Exegesisme]

Could Cruz win against Clinton? The news said that her IT guy was given immunity and I keep hearing she may be arrested and so would it be Bernie against Trump or Cruz?

Now the meaningful attention for 2016 election is on Cruz vs Trump in the coming mar 8, and mar 15.

[Exegesisme]

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-heidicruz-idUSKBN0TY1MD20151215

Heidi Cruz tries to rebuild bridges her husband burned on path to White House

Edited March 6, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Exegesisme]

upcoming election regions of GOP

mar 6, puerto rico 23, no much information.

mar 8, Hawaii 19, Idaho 32, Michigan 59, Mississippi 40

prediction

trump will get votes Hawaii 38%-, Idaho 31%-, Michigan 38%-, Mississippi 40%-,

Cruz will get votes Hawaii 33%+, Idaho 44%+, Michigan 32%+, Mississippi 40%+,

Trump may win at Hawaii and Michigan, Cruz may win at Idaho and Mississippi.

The prediction may be adjusted at mar. 8 according to more polls before the voting results.

Edited March 6, 2016 by Exegesisme

[SpankyMcFarland]

Ex, your expertise in these matters is well known but, to me, Ted's crossover appeal to the Sanders crowd is deeply sub-Trumpian. I suspect Hillary would much prefer a predictable, and not very likeable, chap like Cruz to the mercurial Donald who could box her in on both left and right flanks.

Edited March 7, 2016 by SpankyMcFarland

[Exegesisme]

Cruz to Hillary would be more like Obama to her, who might be least willing to confront.

[Topaz]

I had to laugh when Trump said that Cruz would likely take Maine...its close to Canada!

[Exegesisme]

Trump's attack is false leading.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Cruz has no answers for the big challenges of today. He is not exactly loved by anybody and is despised by Hispanics. Of the four Republicans left, he would be Hillary's choice.

[Exegesisme]

Cruz has no answer, but is the most likely, in the six candidates of both parties, to get the answer for future. Hillary has too much experience to answer the challenges after the information era, which asks for new politics to meet the need of well informative people. She prepares well to rule traditionally, and to win Sanders, Trump and even Rubio, all have traditional wisdom in ranges of Clintons', but the wisdom of Cruz is beyond and new to Clintons'. Cruz and Carson would be possibly a winning pair, and provide real solutions for US and the world of the after-information era.

The function of Trump in this campaign is to hear and react to the sounds of silence, which politics should hear and pay attention to, but can not follow them. I believe Cruz can not only fill the gap between Trump and traditional politics, which represent by other four candidates, but also fill with solution in eye of future. So, I believe Cruz is over the other five on the preparation to react to a real big challenge creatively positively.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Exegesisme]

Sanders should be pay attetntion to. He may replace Hillary in some situation. He takes more advantage than Hillary as confronting republican candidates.

[Exegesisme]

My Prediction for Mar 8, Hawaii 19, Idaho 32, Michigan 59, Mississippi 40

(revised on prediction of Mar 6)

Trump will get votes Hawaii 37%-, Idaho 31%-, Michigan 38%-, Mississippi 37%-,

and win 0 or 1 or 2 states in Michigan and Hawaii

Cruz will get votes Hawaii 33%+, Idaho 45%+, Michigan 32%+, Mississippi 40%+,

and win 2 or 3 states in Idaho, Mississippi and Hawaii.

Kasich may be working well in Michigan.

Edited March 8, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Exegesisme]

Is this legal or illegal?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/presidential-election-headquarters?intcmp=subnav

Rubio camp accuses Cruz of 'dirty tricks' over Hawaii 'dropout' email

[Exegesisme]

The hard work to win Trump in GOP:

2016 Republican Primary

Congressional District results from 44,292 voters since Feb 2016 for the question "If the Presidential election were held today, which Republican party candidate would you vote for?"

Donald Trump: 351/436 (81%) congressional districts won

Marco Rubio: 34/436 (8%) congressional districts won

Ted Cruz: 41/436 (9%) congressional districts won

Ben Carson: 5/436 (1.15%) congressional districts won

​John Kasich: 5/436 (1.15%) congressional districts won

[Exegesisme]

New event:

Romney cuts get-out-the-vote robocalls for Rubio and Kasich

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/08/politics/mitt-romney-marco-rubio-robocalls/index.html

[Exegesisme]

My Prediction for Mar 8, Hawaii 19, Idaho 32, Michigan 59, Mississippi 40

(revised on prediction of Mar 6)

Trump will get votes Hawaii 37%-, Idaho 31%-, Michigan 38%-, Mississippi 37%-,

and win 0 or 1 or 2 states in Michigan and Hawaii

Cruz will get votes Hawaii 33%+, Idaho 45%+, Michigan 32%+, Mississippi 40%+,

and win 2 or 3 states in Idaho, Mississippi and Hawaii.

Kasich may be working well in Michigan.

On Mar. 8, the results in Idaho and Michigan fell into my model of prediction, three quarters in factors of the results in Hawaii and Mississippi fell into my model of prediction, and one quarter in factors of the results dropped out my model of prediction. There were two third of Rubio's supporters in Mississippi, and 5 over 18 Rubio's supporters in Idaho turned to support Trump other than Cruz, which made Trump won three states and Cruz won only one. In Mar. 1, some of Rubio's supporters turned to support Cruz other than Trump.

The dropping in of Romney for Rubio and Kasich after Mar.1 might be one of two important variables for polls on Mar. 8, another variable is http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/07/politics/marco-rubio-campaign-weighs-getting-out/index.html, which worked mainly for Trump and then for Kasich. I highly suspect that Romney made without direct help to both Rubio and Kasich, and made indirect help to Trump by showing Trump's strength indirectly, and made more supporters turn away from Rubio in polls of Mar. 8 than polls of Mar. 1.And even worse to hope of Romney, these supporters of Rubio went after Trump in polls of Mar. 8. More than half of Rubio's supporter in Michigan went after Kasich.

The weakness of Cruz is lacking outstanding strategy to compare with Trump's deep resonance to the traditionally silent sounds. I believe Trump would continually take advantage for the nomination of GOP if Cruz does not make such an outstanding strategy as soon as he can. Cruz should unify GOP by his outstanding strategy first.

Actually, Trump would have real possibility to unify GOP after Mar. 15.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Exegesisme]

Practical choices in GOP:

Trump runs to win finally;

An ally around Cruz runs to win finally;

Trump makes Cruz his ally to win ahead;

Trump wins by GOP national convention;

Cruz wins by GOP national convention.

Romney or any other one won by GOP national convention is not a practical successful choice.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Exegesisme]

Fiorina said at a Cruz rally in Florida. "The truth is Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are two sides of the same coin. They're not going to reform the system, they are the system."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/09/politics/ted-cruz-donald-trump-uniting-republicans/index.html

Thinking along the idea of Fiorina, I get my concept of 2016 election of US:

Trump represents tradition beyond politics, Hillary represents tradition in politics, and Cruz has the qualification to represent the desire to reform politics from both in politics and beyond politics, but has not solution yet.

Edited March 9, 2016 by Exegesisme

[Topaz]

I was told that Neil Bush...the guy involved with the savings and loans scam...is backing Cruz.....now what does that tell u? If I were Cruz I back away from Bush.