CPC Leadership Predictions

[SpankyMcFarland]

What? Et tu Smirky? Rempel is going for the junior job now? 10% of the caucus wants this thankless post. Who ISN'T running for it? Will any of the losers run in the main event?

Calandra has supplied some truth about what went wrong. The rest are still making it up. A frank debate about errors made would be beneficial for the party.

Edited November 3, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

OK, of the declared interim candidates SO FAR TONIGHT, I would go for either O'Toole or Rempel, with O'Toole being the less divisive candidate within and beyond the party.

Edited November 3, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[Argus]

OK, of the declared interim candidates SO FAR TONIGHT, I would go for either O'Toole or Rempel, with O'Toole being the less divisive candidate within and beyond the party.

I think Rempel, simply because she's a woman and young, would be most likely to produce a different image for the Tories in that she's so very different than Harper. As others have said, the Conservatives need to appeal to women more, though that's difficult given the nature of their desire for small government.

Edited November 3, 2015 by Argus

[SpankyMcFarland]

I think Rempel, simply because she's a woman and young, would be most likely to produce a different image for the Tories in that she's so very different than Harper. As others have said, the Conservatives need to appeal to women more, though that's difficult given the nature of their desire for small government.

She is also photogenic and an excellent debater. Bit of charisma going on there.

Edited November 3, 2015 by SpankyMcFarland

[ToadBrother]

She is also photogenic and an excellent debater. Bit of charisma going on there.

As charismatic as she may be, and whatever her gifts, I simply cannot see a major political party handing someone who isn't even 40 yet the reigns of power.

[Derek 2.0]

As charismatic as she may be, and whatever her gifts, I simply cannot see a major political party handing someone who isn't even 40 yet the reigns of power.

Rempel will be 36 in several months, the same age Joe Clark was when he won the PC leadership (beating Brian Mulroney,who was only a few months his senior), likewise, if the next election is Fall of 2019, Rempel will be a few months shy of 40.....Joe Clark was sworn in as PM the day before his 40th birthday.......

Though Rempel does have a few issues to resolve among certain areas of the base, she shouldn't be discounted.

[Derek 2.0]

I think Rempel, simply because she's a woman and young, would be most likely to produce a different image for the Tories in that she's so very different than Harper. As others have said, the Conservatives need to appeal to women more, though that's difficult given the nature of their desire for small government.

I agree, one of Rempel/Raitt/Leitch/Ambrose/ should be the next leader, of them, I'd personally favor Raitt or Rempel. I think Kenney would make a good leader, as would a return of Mackay, but both would be painted with the Harper brush. I like (on a personal/professional level) Erin O'Toole, but feel he is too good/nice of a man for herding the cats in the party, likewise, for leading the political knife fight in what the next election will be.

I favor Rob Nicholson minding the tiller for the next couple of years, and don't want to see a rushed leadership contest, instead favor not starting it until the halfway point of the Trudeau mandate.

[ToadBrother]

I favor Rob Nicholson minding the tiller for the next couple of years, and don't want to see a rushed leadership contest, instead favor not starting it until the halfway point of the Trudeau mandate.

One of the smartest things the Liberals did after their 2011 smack-down was to purposely hold off on a leadership race until half way through the last Parliament. It allowed for a slower, more thoughtful approach. But to replicate that, the Tories need to find their own Bob Rae, someone with a lot of experience and management skill, but with no long term leadership aspirations.

[Derek 2.0]

One of the smartest things the Liberals did after their 2011 smack-down was to purposely hold off on a leadership race until half way through the last Parliament. It allowed for a slower, more thoughtful approach. But to replicate that, the Tories need to find their own Bob Rae, someone with a lot of experience and management skill, but with no long term leadership aspirations.

I agree, hence Rob Nicholson (or Diane Finely?).

[On Guard for Thee]

I think if they are to have a snowballs chance in hell, they will need to pressgang Joe Clark back into service, Not much respect anywhere for any of the current cabinet.

[The_Squid]

It turns out Rempel is going for interim leader afterall. If she wins, then she can no longer go for the big job.... which she likely wouldn't get anyway.

[SpankyMcFarland]

It turns out Rempel is going for interim leader afterall. If she wins, then she can no longer go for the big job.... which she likely wouldn't get anyway.

I'm surprised she did that. Lord knows how old she will be when she gets a chance again.

[Derek 2.0]

It turns out Rempel is going for interim leader afterall. If she wins, then she can no longer go for the big job.... which she likely wouldn't get anyway.

That's not true. First, there is no law precluding an interim leader for running for the party leadership, as such "rule" is only apart of the CPC's constitution. The Party constitution could be changed by the membership or she could resign as interim leader to run for the big chair.

As to gaming potential leaders, its far too early to speculate on who would or wouldn't have support of the party.

[Argus]

As charismatic as she may be, and whatever her gifts, I simply cannot see a major political party handing someone who isn't even 40 yet the reigns of power.

What power? She'd be interim leader, not someone who will lead the party into an election as an alternative prime minister.

[Argus]

I think if they are to have a snowballs chance in hell, they will need to pressgang Joe Clark back into service, Not much respect anywhere for any of the current cabinet.

No respect anywhere among conservatives, for the old liberal fossil, Joe Who.

[Argus]

I'm surprised she did that. Lord knows how old she will be when she gets a chance again.

She doesn't have the experience to be PM. If she wins interim leader she will definitely be a major player in the party thereafter (unless she screws it up) and hold a major shadow cabinet position under a new leader and then a major cabinet post in any Tory government which follows. At 35 she has plenty of time to build her creds.

Edited November 3, 2015 by Argus

[ToadBrother]

Rempel will be 36 in several months, the same age Joe Clark was when he won the PC leadership (beating Brian Mulroney,who was only a few months his senior), likewise, if the next election is Fall of 2019, Rempel will be a few months shy of 40.....Joe Clark was sworn in as PM the day before his 40th birthday.......

Though Rempel does have a few issues to resolve among certain areas of the base, she shouldn't be discounted.

Joe Clark's short tenure as PM ought to be a counterargument to Rempel being chosen.

[Derek 2.0]

Joe Clark's short tenure as PM ought to be a counterargument to Rempel being chosen.

Why? Joe Clark didn't get defeated because of his age, but by a divided right.

[Argus]

Why? Joe Clark didn't get defeated because of his age, but by a divided right.

Joe Clark was defeated by his own incompetence and naivety.

[Derek 2.0]

She doesn't have the experience to be PM. If she wins interim leader she will definitely be a major player in the party thereafter (unless she screws it up) and hold a major shadow cabinet position under a new leader and then a major cabinet post in any Tory government which follows. At 35 she has plenty of time to build her creds.

Unlike Harper and Trudeau, Rempel would be going into a leadership contest as a former member of Government and a cabinet minister.

[Derek 2.0]

Joe Clark was defeated by his own incompetence and naivety.

And a divided right.....

[ToadBrother]

Joe Clark was defeated by his own incompetence and naivety.

He was defeated by the fact that he had only been able to achieve a minority.

[Argus]

Unlike Harper and Trudeau, Rempel would be going into a leadership contest as a former member of Government and a cabinet minister.

Harper spent 13 years building up his creds. Rempel has been an MP for 4 years. Trudeau only got elected, despite his youth and inexperience, because people were tired of Harper, and because he promised a big bag of goodies to everyone. Rempel will not be able to be that generous and we can't count on the country coming to hate Trudeau that quickly. It's harder to hate Liberals if you're an idiot, and most of the country is made up of idiots. Liberals smile as they steal from you, rather than being grumpy old penny pinchers like the Tories. And their gross incompetence isn't enough to boot them out as long as they can buy people off. Witness Ontario's Liberal government.

Edited November 3, 2015 by Argus

[Derek 2.0]

He was defeated by the fact that he had only been able to achieve a minority.

And the Socreds in the House would have given him a majority......

[Argus]

He was defeated by the fact that he had only been able to achieve a minority.

He was defeated by being unable to count, and refusing to cut a deal with the Union National. He thought he could bluff his way through and he was wrong.