On Guard for Thee Posted February 12, 2015 Report Share Posted February 12, 2015 Okay, so I went through with the non-linear regression of the change in CO2 on a constant, CO2, Human emissions, Volcanic emissions, the integral of Human emissions, the integral of Volcanic emissions, time, and the integral of atmospheric CO2. I used the data from 1876 to 2009. Basically I did the regression dCO2/dt = (A - D*CO2(0)) + (B + D)*CO2(t) + E*CO2_emissions + F*Volcanic_Aerosols + E*D*Integral(0 to t; CO2_emissions*dt) + F*D*Integral(0 to t; Volcanic_Aerosols*dt) - (AD)*t - (BD)*Integral(0 to t;CO2(t)*dt)) The 95% confidence intervals for the coefficients A, B, D, E, and F are: (262233 +/- 10191481), (-874 +/- 361), (2.98 +/- 0.0000018)x10^-4, (0.141 +/- 0.000025) and (1.95 +/- 0.000011)x10^-3. Though I will point out that I got the error message 'Matrix is close to singular or badly scaled' when doing the Gauss-Newton method. Only the constant is not statistically significant, which isn't that relevant. E and F are highly significant, which suggests that both volcanism and human emissions are significant at explaining changes in CO2 concentrations over time. Most relevant is the estimate of D, which if you invert it suggests that the characteristic temperature of Earth's heat sink has a decay time of 3355 years. Here we go again. Have you figured out that human breath does not add to the CO2 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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