Will Ukraine Be Partitioned?

[ASIP]

I have no idea where you are getting your information but I suggest that it is based on wishful thinking rather than factual reality.

Is it difficult to understand that I am getting my information directly from press-releases of the Russian and Ukrainian governments and interviews of immediate participants of the negotiation? Do you realize that in Ukrainian media the situation is discussed little bit more thoroughly than Al-Jazeera does?

Russia has agreements on gas supply with European countries. Limiting the supply does not serve well for the perception of Russia as a reliable supplier or that Russia doesn't use energy supply as a political weapon. Don't forget, supplying less (to Europe, not Ukraine) means less money coming to the budget. It's a stupid business model.

[Signals.Cpl]

The numbers of the Ukrainian debt for the supplied Russian gas you provided is a figment of Putin's imagination. That's why they are changed every week or so. Ukraine is ready to pay its debt, but calculated in accordance with negotiated contracts and not based on arbitrary ideas. The case is in the international court now.

And what would an international court accomplish? The way it is set up at the moment if the issue in front of Russia and Ukraine is to be decided by say the International Court of Justice any ruling they make will not be binding for Russia unless they willingly accept that Ruling.

[Big Guy]

Is it difficult to understand that I am getting my information directly from press-releases of the Russian and Ukrainian governments and interviews of immediate participants of the negotiation? Do you realize that in Ukrainian media the situation is discussed little bit more thoroughly than Al-Jazeera does?

...

I read both the Kiev media and the Russian media as well. I must have missed the information from those press releases and interviews. Please share the sources with me so that I may be enlightened and then be guaranteed that it is not something that you made up but is truly researched.

[ASIP]

And what would an international court accomplish? The way it is set up at the moment if the issue in front of Russia and Ukraine is to be decided by say the International Court of Justice any ruling they make will not be binding for Russia unless they willingly accept that Ruling.

I am not sure you follow the topic of our discussion with Big Guy. This is the price of the natural gas Russia had supplied to Ukraine before the cutoff.

Under the international court I meant Stockholm arbitration.

E.g., http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/14/naftogaz-ukraine-appeals-to-stockholm-court/

It is a trade issue. Formally, Russia and Ukraine are not in a state of war.

[ASIP]

I read both the Kiev media and the Russian media as well. I must have missed the information from those press releases and interviews. Please share the sources with me so that I may be enlightened and then be guaranteed that it is not something that you made up but is truly researched.

E.g.,

https://www.google.ca/search?newwindow=1&safe=off&q=%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5+%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8B+%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B0+%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D1%8F&oq=%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B5+%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8B&gs_l=serp.1.1.0i19l4j0i30i19l3j0i5i30i19l2.495948.507772.0.510052.18.18.0.0.0.0.462.2526.5j11j1j0j1.18.0....0...1c.1.56.serp..10.8.1417.fg1eghPj36g

Please note that I am not trying to prove something. I am just explaining to you what is going on.

[Big Guy]

E.g.,

...

Please note that I am not trying to prove something. I am just explaining to you what is going on.

Thank you for the references but after translating and looking through two of them I find nothing that substantiates your claims.

Instead of pages of google hits of newspapers, please direct me to two impartial sources which back your claims like I have done in my previous posts..

[Signals.Cpl]

I am not sure you follow the topic of our discussion with Big Guy. This is the price of the natural gas Russia had supplied to Ukraine before the cutoff.

Under the international court I meant Stockholm arbitration.

E.g., http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/10/14/naftogaz-ukraine-appeals-to-stockholm-court/

It is a trade issue. Formally, Russia and Ukraine are not in a state of war.

I thought by international court you meant ICJ.

[Big Guy]

There is a reason for trying to find impartial news coming from a war zone. There is an ongoing battle for Donetsk. It appears a stalemate with rebels claiming that they are getting an upper hand and with the Kiev side accusing Ukrainians of incompetence in killing their own troops.

For anybody wishing to follow this folly;

The Kiev story;

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/clashes-intensify-in-donetsk-airport-defenders-are-holding-their-ground-video-368709.html

The Rebel story;

http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/17-10-2014/128830-uktrainian_troops-0/#.VEVSY8hzb5o

“In war, truth is the first casualty.” - Aeschylus

[ASIP]

There is a reason for trying to find impartial news coming from a war zone. There is an ongoing battle for Donetsk.

Where do you get your "news"???

There is no any "battle for Donetsk" right now. The Ukrainian army obeys the Minsk accord and does not move forward. The rebels are using this and trying to grab more territory during this so called ceasefire. The Ukrainian army fires back.

As for Donetsk itself? It is not clear what is going on inside the city. It is a strong indication that there are some anti-rebel guerrilla-type fighters sabotaging rebel ammunition warehouses.

About the destiny of truth in war - I concur.

[ASIP]

Thank you for the references but after translating and looking through two of them I find nothing that substantiates your claims.

Sure!

Instead of pages of google hits of newspapers, please direct me to two impartial sources which back your claims like I have done in my previous posts..

I made no claims requiring any proof. I just convey information. I do not need your agreement with my information.

You may express your personal opinion. Sometimes your opinion matches the reality sometimes not, that's fine. I interfere only when you step beyond just an opinion and try to present a situation as a fact when reality is different.

[Big Guy]

I would suggest that our postings do reflect our opinions - probably based on different sources. The "proof in the pudding" will be the conclusions that either or both of us make. I have no dog in this fight and state what I believe and what I think will happen.

In fact I will commit myself to some projections:

Crimea will stay as part of Russia.

There will be a "buffer" corridor created down the Eastern part of Ukraine to serve as a "no mans land" between Kiev and Moscow creating a land bridge from Russia to the Crimea.

Economic sanctions against Russia by the West will be quietly removed in an attempt by the EU to placate Russia.

The economy of the present Ukraine will continue to deteriorate, there will be another election very soon and a government far more pro-Russian than this one will be elected.

Ukraine will apply for membership to NATO and be rejected.

You may agree or disagree but I suggest that time will tell. Let us wait and see what happens?

Edited October 21, 2014 by Big Guy

[jbg]

From recent news (link to source):

Putin offered to divide Ukraine with Poland - Polish ex-minister

WARSAW, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to Poland's then leader that they divide Ukraine between themselves as far back as 2008, Poland's parliamentary speaker Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview published by the U.S. Politico website.

According to Sikorski, who until September served as Poland's Foreign Minister, Putin made the proposal during Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's visit to Moscow in 2008.

"He wanted us to become participants in this partition of Ukraine ... This was one of the first things that Putin said to my prime minister, Donald Tusk, when he visited Moscow."

"He (Putin) went on to say Ukraine is an artificial country and that Lwow is a Polish city and why don't we just sort it out together," Sikorski was quoted as saying in the interview dated Oct. 19.

Before World War Two, Poland's territory included parts of today's western Ukraine, including some major cities such as Lwow, known as Lviv in Ukraine.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2800667/Putin-offered-divide-Ukraine-Poland--Polish-ex-minister.html#ixzz3Go51kBvT

I wonder if Poland has collective memory of the last "carve-up" deal, between Ribbentrop (for Germany) and Molotov (for Russia"). That one didn't end well for Poland. Initially Russia suffered when ultimately back-stabbed by Germany. However Germany's efforts helped speed its defeat in WW II.

This kind of garbage is why much of Europe's intelligent blood migrated to the U.S. and Canada before WW I. An example is my own family. Some of my own ancestors were from Ukraine and were deserters from the Czar's army.

Europe is always a place where rulers waste a lot of time, blood and treasure on carving up each others land rather than getting to work.

[Big Guy]

It is getting more difficult to figure out who are the good guys and the bad guys in this war. Each side has tried to hold the moral and political high ground but the Kiev side has taken a hit. Apparently the Kiev side is using "outlawed" armaments:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukrainian-government-denies-allegations-of-war-crimes-368871.html

Point to Separatists.

[ASIP]

Apparently the Kiev side is using "outlawed" armaments:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukrainian-government-denies-allegations-of-war-crimes-368871.html

Half of the truth is a lie.

Ukrainian government denies using cluster bombs. Rockets with cluster warheads was certainly used by the Russian army against Ukrainian convoys.

Though, it is possible Ukrainian army used these rockets too. The rockets do not have a sender's address.

Amnesty International and OSCE don't do proper investigations. They collect fairy tales.

[Big Guy]

Half of the truth is a lie.

Ukrainian government denies using cluster bombs. Rockets with cluster warheads was certainly used by the Russian army against Ukrainian convoys.

Though, it is possible Ukrainian army used these rockets too. The rockets do not have a sender's address.

Amnesty International and OSCE don't do proper investigations. They collect fairy tales.

Well, if you will not accept Kievpost, the principle paper of the Ukrainian regime as a reliable resource than I suggest you begin your own newspaper.

[jbg]

It is getting more difficult to figure out who are the good guys and the bad guys in this war. Each side has tried to hold the moral and political high ground but the Kiev side has taken a hit. Apparently the Kiev side is using "outlawed" armaments:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukrainian-government-denies-allegations-of-war-crimes-368871.html

Point to Separatists.

I don't think Kiev's side is great either. I happen to think that Putin is worse but both are pretty bad.

[ASIP]

Well, if you will not accept Kievpost, the principle paper of the Ukrainian regime as a reliable resource than I suggest you begin your own newspaper.

I have no problems with the messenger. I state that your interpretation of the information in the message is not correct.

By the way, today the Ukrainian Defence Council presented photographs of the cluster warhead rocket with the sender's address. And the address is "Russia".

http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/news/ukraine_has_evidence_that_cluster_bombs_were_used_by_russian_troops_326764

http://gordonua.com/news/war/SNBO-raspolagaet-dokazatelstvami-obstrela-sil-ATO-s-ustanovok-Smerch-47585.html

I don't think Kiev's side is great either. I happen to think that Putin is worse but both are pretty bad.

This means the Putin's propaganda is successful.

(The Ukrainian side are not angels, especially paramilitary units. A war is a war. Bad things happen. But you must understand the distinction: for the Ukrainian side (not army) violation of Geneva convention is exception, for Russian army and rebels in Ukraine - it's a way of doing business).

[jbg]

This means the Putin's propaganda is successful.

(The Ukrainian side are not angels, especially paramilitary units. A war is a war. Bad things happen. But you must understand the distinction: for the Ukrainian side (not army) violation of Geneva convention is exception, for Russian army and rebels in Ukraine - it's a way of doing business).

My ancestors did not flee Ukraine based on their angelic characteristics. Ukraine was hell on earth for Jews, much like all of Russia, whether under the Czars or the communist dictators.

[ASIP]

Ukraine was hell on earth for Jews.

For very short periods of time, in certain places (pogroms) - yes. In 1960 - 1980s Jews did very well in Ukraine. 1990s were hard times for everyone. This is what I saw. Before WW II, it seems, they were OK too, at least compared to other ethnic groups.

[Scared.In.Canada]

If I had a magic wand I would completely redraw the map of Africa, and eliminate most of the existing borders -- which were drawn by the colonialist powers with no regard to ethnicity. I would redraw those borders to put ethnic groups together into separate nations wherever feasible.

What aboout Canada? Would you divide her up to make sure the races stay seperate as well? It's interesting thaat you support Aparthied.

[Big Guy]

Kiev has voted and the pro-Western government has been re-elected. The Oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk have voted to create their own government. No one outside of Russia recognizes the new Eastern Ukraine government but it does not appear to matter since Kiev is not in control of those oblasts. The Crimea is not even contested any more.

It looks like Crimea is a part of Russia and Eastern Ukraine will be a buffer zone between Kiev and Russia. Kiev cannot afford to support it financially but Russia can.

Looks like things are working out as predicted here a couple of months ago.

Edited November 4, 2014 by Big Guy

[Big Guy]

The war keeps going on, Kiev is going bankrupt and refusing most of the reforms that the "liberation" was promised. About 4,000 have been killed in the Eastern oblasts, no one questions that Crimea is part of Russia. The EU is becoming more reluctant to bail Kiev out and winter is coming and the gas from Russia (which is now asking for pre-payment) is becoming more desperately needed.

Looks to me like Kiev and the West have lost this one.

[Big Guy]

According to Kiev, the Ukrainian economy is bankrupt. The USA Vice President has visited for a third time with lots of insignificant goodies, no armaments and (according to locals) the suggestion that Kiev have serious negotiations (read - time to accept defeat) because there is no more help coming.

Looks like Eastern Ukraine will no longer be Eastern Ukraine.

[On Guard for Thee]

Hey Steven Harper told him to get the hell out of Ukraine at the latest G20 garden party. Relax, Putin is shuddering in his boots after that. He'll be gone in a week.

[sharkman]

Ukraine wil be partitioned because Obama is spineless and everyone knows it.