Increasing weather/climate extremes

[waldo]

when does a weather extreme become a climate extreme?

recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report titled, 'The Global Climate 2001-2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes'. The report provides a decadal perspective on the recent decades weather extremes in the broader context of past period comparisons; sufficient period duration to afford the distinction between climate and its weather makeup. This follows up on the relatively recent 2012 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) update report titled, 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)'... itself, a report, providing more timely updates to the last formal series of 2007 IPCC AR4 reports.

if you follow the most reputable 'Weather Underground' website, you know the legitimacy it's founder, meteorologist Jeff Masters, holds. 2010 and 2011 were most prolific in terms of world-wide weather extremes - of which Masters wrote a most detailed accounting --- 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?.

off course, we're just coming off the recent Southwest Alberta and Toronto flooding... with focused attention by provincial and municipal governments for the need to re-evaluate infrastructure, adaptation requirements, general preparedness, etc. - a reevaluation in the context of global warming/climate change.

in recent days, no less than the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released a report as a part of its role to assist the U.S.'s strategic planning to support national climate change adaptation - more directly advancing the DOE's goal of promoting energy security... of examining current and potential future impacts of extreme weather/climate trends on the U.S. energy sector. The report, and quoting references to it: U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Report

Annual temperatures across the United States have increased by about 1.5°F over the last century. In fact, 2012 was both the warmest year on record in the contiguous United States and saw the hottest month since the country started keeping records in 1895. The implications for America’s energy infrastructure include:

- Increased risk of temporary partial or full shutdowns at thermoelectric (coal, natural gas, and nuclear) power plants because of decreased water availability for cooling and higher ambient and air water temperatures. Thermoelectric power plants require water cooling in order to operate. A study of coal plants, for example, found that roughly 60 percent of the current fleet is located in areas of water stress.

- Reduced power generation from hydroelectric power plants in some regions and seasons due to drought and declining snowpack. For example, earlier spring snowmelts could decrease summer water availability leading to potential hydropower shortages when energy demand for cooling is greatest.

- Risks to energy infrastructure located along the coast from sea level rise, increasing intensity of storms, and higher storm surge and flooding -- potentially disrupting oil and gas production, refining, and distribution, as well as electricity generation and distribution.

- Increasing risks of physical damage to power lines, transformers and electricity distribution systems from hurricanes, storms and wildfires that are growing more intense and more frequent.

- Increased risks of disruption and delay to fuel transport by rail and barge during more frequent periods of drought and flooding that affect water levels in rivers and ports.

- Higher air conditioning costs and risks of blackouts and brownouts in some regions if the capacity of existing power plants does not keep pace with the growth in peak electricity demand due to increasing temperatures and heat waves. An Argonne National Laboratory study found that higher peak electricity demand as a result of climate change related temperature increases will require an additional 34 GW of new power generation capacity in the western United States alone by 2050, costing consumers $45 billion. This is roughly equivalent to more than 100 new power plants, and doesn't include new power plants that will be needed to accommodate growth in population or other factors.

(on edit: per the following, included reference to the latest 2013 USGCRP 'climate assessment' report)

another example reference, a U.S. specific 'climate assessment' from the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Past USGCRP reports have been discussed in previous MLW threads... this latest report - the Third National Climate Assessment (2013), currently released in draft format only.

example references to extreme weather event observations and, as appropriate, climate impacts and projections, can be read within, for example, both the Executive Summary and Chapter 2 - Our Changing Climate
.

Edited July 17, 2013 by waldo

[Shady]

Does the report take into account the warming plateau?

[Wild Bill]

when does a weather extreme become a climate extreme?

off course, we're just coming off the recent Southwest Alberta and Toronto flooding... with focused attention by provincial and municipal governments for the need to re-evaluate infrastructure, adaptation requirements, general preparedness, etc. - a reevaluation in the context of global warming/climate change.

Waldo, I'm not saying you are wrong but consider this: Municipalities like Toronto have been allowing new development for several decades now without spending a nickel on new water collection and treatment centres. They have simply been extending the hookups from the legacy systems.

In effect, they have taken all the development fees and new property taxes and just pocketed them, instead of using them for their official justification, which is the necessary cost of new infrastructure to support that development.

Could adding so much storm sewer piping with no supporting networks not have a teensy, weensy effect on the amount of flooding being greater today than in the past?

Just a teensy bit?

Edited July 17, 2013 by Wild Bill

[waldo]

Does the report take into account the warming plateau?

pick up your game Shady - try to contribute, hey?

[waldo]

Could adding so much storm sewer piping with no supporting networks not have a teensy, weensy effect on the amount of flooding being greater today than in the past?

Just a teensy bit?

WB, of course... along with concrete paving over miles and miles. Accusations abound, claiming with the broadest sweeping generalization, every weather extreme is being unnecessarily folded into the global warming/climate change (GW/CC) attribution umbrella. Much of that reflects on the underlying politicization... much of that is simply fueled by media hucksters..... but, yes, some of that is a legitimate criticism. Separating out the legitimacy is a part of this threads intent.

[Accountability Now]

when does a weather extreme become a climate extreme?

recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released a report titled, 'The Global Climate 2001-2010, A Decade of Climate Extremes'. The report provides a decadal perspective on the recent decades weather extremes in the broader context of past period comparisons; sufficient period duration to afford the distinction between climate and its weather makeup. This follows up on the relatively recent 2012 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) update report titled, 'Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)'... itself, a report, providing more timely updates to the last formal series of 2007 IPCC AR4 reports.

if you follow the most reputable 'Weather Underground' website, you know the legitimacy it's founder, meteorologist Jeff Masters, holds. 2010 and 2011 were most prolific in terms of world-wide weather extremes - of which Masters wrote a most detailed accounting --- 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?.

off course, we're just coming off the recent Southwest Alberta and Toronto flooding... with focused attention by provincial and municipal governments for the need to re-evaluate infrastructure, adaptation requirements, general preparedness, etc. - a reevaluation in the context of global warming/climate change.

in recent days, no less than the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) released a report as a part of its role to assist the U.S.'s strategic planning to support national climate change adaptation - more directly advancing the DOE's goal of promoting energy security... of examining current and potential future impacts of extreme weather/climate trends on the U.S. energy sector. The report, and quoting references to it: U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Report

We've already been through this on the Alberta Flood thread but apparently waldo feels like wasting more bandwidth. The coles notes version is:

1. The Calgary flood of the Bow River was slightly higher than the worst flood of all time in 1932. The Elbow River did not come close to its worst flood level ever.

2. The WMO statement that waldo purpots above states that hurricanes have the most activity in the Atlantic basin since 1855. The only problem is that the world's authorities on hurricanes have stated the the only reliable data we have exists since 1966. As such its just another attempt at skewing the perception of what is extreme.

As for goverments changing infrastructure, it has nothing to do with global warming rather it is entirely to correct decisions made to build on NATURAL flood plains in years past. If you want to build there, then you need to build levees or someother form of water control because they won't bail you out when this DOES happen again.

[waldo]

We've already been through this on the Alberta Flood thread but apparently waldo feels like wasting more bandwidth.

if you have a positive contribution to make to this thread, please do. The other thread is still there for you to shyte upon.

[Accountability Now]

if you have a positive contribution to make to this thread, please do. The other thread is still there for you to shyte upon.

I just did. I welcome people to look at both sides waldo...not just yours.

[socialist]

Take a look at all the extreme weather happening in Canada. That is the catastrophic consequence of human driven climate change. Deniers are fools.

[waldo]

of course, a standard tactic used by many who resist any consideration of the impact of global warming/climate change on weather..... contributing to relatively recent increases in weather extremes, is to play the local/regional card against the collective global assessments which are based on a buildup review of events/studies/science.

global assessments, of course, derive from local/regional event assessments, some of which may interact with each other. The resisting tactic typically manifests itself with a hyper assault on one particular target... the belief being that if "a hole can be poked" in the relative extremism, then the supposed/claimed "house of cards" folds. To some it's an extension of their underlying denial of global warming/climate change and attribution to anthropogenic sources. Of course, the global assessments rely upon underlying positions/trends, some holding more confidence/uncertainty than others.

the resisting tactic will look for some distant like happening and offer-up... "it's happened before... this is nothing unusual". Of course, those plying the tactic have a purposely narrow view that avoids the underlying possible and more direct causal ties being considered in a 'today's time frame'. If they're challenged to suggest an attribution for that long past "it happened before" event, they'll typically throw back a trivialized response, suggesting it's nothing more than weather!

Edited July 17, 2013 by waldo

[Shady]

Sorry waldo, but the warming plateau is real and a consensus.

[GostHacked]

WB, of course... along with concrete paving over miles and miles. Accusations abound, claiming with the broadest sweeping generalization, every weather extreme is being unnecessarily folded into the global warming/climate change (GW/CC) attribution umbrella. Much of that reflects on the underlying politicization... much of that is simply fueled by media hucksters..... but, yes, some of that is a legitimate criticism. Separating out the legitimacy is a part of this threads intent.

Quite the admission that there is politicization when it comes to the arena of AGW/climate change.

[waldo]

Sorry waldo, but the warming plateau is real and a consensus.

go argue it in the thread you started... you didn't fare so well there. Do you have... more?

[waldo]

Quite the admission that there is politicization when it comes to the arena of AGW/climate change.

certainly not an admission from me. I've acknowledged the overt politicization many times over... from both sides - of course, from my perspective, from one side more than the other.

[Shady]

Quite the admission that there is politicization when it comes to the arena of AGW/climate change.

Waldo has even admitted that the science isn't settled.

[Accountability Now]

of course, a standard tactic used by many who resist any consideration of the impact of global warming/climate change on weather..... contributing to relatively recent increases in weather extremes, is to play the local/regional card against the collective global assessments which are based on a buildup review of events/studies/science.

waldo...please provide some of this studies of your global assessments. I have asked you for this data numerous times in the Alberta Floods section and you continue to deflect or respond with local/regional responses.

Not sure why you use the word tactic either. I would replace that with logic.

[Accountability Now]

Take a look at all the extreme weather happening in Canada. That is the catastrophic consequence of human driven climate change. Deniers are fools.

Can you give me an example of an extreme weather occurance and how global warming caused it?

[waldo]

Waldo has even admitted that the science isn't settled.

Shady, this is a meme free zone - please consider this next time you have nothing to contribute to the discussion of weather extremes and related attribution considerations.

[waldo]

waldo...please provide some of this studies of your global assessments. I have asked you for this data numerous times in the Alberta Floods section and you continue to deflect or respond with local/regional responses.

Can you give me an example of an extreme weather occurance and how global warming caused it?

the OP provided multiple example reference links for your perusal... surely you don't need your hand held to take a modicum of initiative and actually review them. Surely.

[Bryan]

AGW hysterian logic:

If it's cool, dry, and calm, that's just weather. No correlation to climate.

If it's warm, wet, or windy, that's a climate catastrophe.

[waldo]

another example reference, a U.S. specific 'climate assessment' from the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). Past USGCRP reports have been discussed in previous MLW threads... this latest report - the Third National Climate Assessment (2013), currently released in draft format only.

example references to extreme weather event observations and, as appropriate, climate impacts and projections, can be read within, for example, both the Executive Summary and Chapter 2 - Our Changing Climate

[Accountability Now]

the OP provided multiple example reference links for your perusal... surely you don't need your hand held to take a modicum of initiative and actually review them. Surely.

No....the two studies and one blog you provided only cite local/regional examples. Cite some peer reviewed data showing some of this global assessment that you're talking about. You know...something that shows the global intensities or frequencies of such events are increasing and of course how global warming is causing it. Surely you have that?

[waldo]

No....the two studies and one blog you provided only cite local/regional examples. Cite some peer reviewed data showing some of this global assessment that you're talking about. You know...something that shows the global intensities or frequencies of such events are increasing and of course how global warming is causing it. Surely you have that?

within the OP, multiple links are available for your consideration.

[Accountability Now]

within the OP, multiple links are available for your consideration.

I went through them all and none of them showed this ''global' assessment. Please provide at your earliest opportunity.

[waldo]

I went through them all and none of them showed this ''global' assessment. Please provide at your earliest opportunity.

I will not bow to your reading and comprehension difficulties.