shortlived Posted March 18, 2013 Report Share Posted March 18, 2013 (edited) I dunno where you are getting that from PIK considering Trudeau's popularity the polls seem to be saying that it it could be minority NDP government http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html NDP would get much of Quebec, BC and some Atlantic Canada. Liberals would get Some Atlantic Canada, and probably hold onto a bunch of their current seats.. I would be suprised if Ontario doesn't swing to the Liberals, I also think that a bunch of Conservatives who are Seniors now would potentially go into retirement rather than run for relection it makes for a very old government which really won't be representative of the masses at all, only the most priveleged of the boomers. I really don't think Toronto will go with the Conservatives a second time, it was really close last time I think it was a fluke. Almost by default Alberta remains a fortress, and likely they will pick up of a chunk of the prairies, but there will probably be a couple NDP and a few liberal seats too. However still a long way off like what a year and a half? Doesn't seem he is in the shuffle.... http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2013/03/18/pmo-confirms-harper-plans-%E2%80%98major-changes%E2%80%99-to-cabinet-this-summer/34047 No doubt Ontario will determine the next election.... I would say atleast the CPC losing 40 seats should be the minimum expected. Probably most of them in BC and Ontario, I would think its possible to see New Brunswick loose a few CPC seats too. Now its still a year and a half away, but there could maybe be 'an election' or as much as federal politics allows for an election.. this one in 2015 should be hotly contested.. oh right that is what 2 1/2 years? October 19, 2015 is a LONG way off. Edited March 19, 2013 by shortlived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted March 18, 2013 Report Share Posted March 18, 2013 Well trying to derail the pipeline, during his trip down south, especially when pelosi started using the same talking points as tommy was, so that proves he was up to something no good. And she does have alot of power in the dem goverment and wanting to bring back that cop shooter back here because he illegally lived here. And what else is he going to do before the next election.lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortlived Posted March 19, 2013 Report Share Posted March 19, 2013 (edited) Well trying to derail the pipeline, during his trip down south, especially when pelosi started using the same talking points as tommy was, so that proves he was up to something no good. And she does have alot of power in the dem goverment and wanting to bring back that cop shooter back here because he illegally lived here. And what else is he going to do before the next election.lol The toronto issue is a big one for the next election. If the conservatives are to be supplanted it will require NDP and Liberal gains in Ontario. Here is one interesting article on that... http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/02/22/justin_trudeau_could_help_liberals_regain_ontario_poll.html What seems to be brewing is a pretty evenly divided House if the NDP hold onto Quebec Still to early to see how the dynamic effects Quebec though... Its just a question of whether alberta and the praries want to be in opposition or help form government. I think the praries won't be quite as blue as they were last election. Alberta of course...? It would take only one party running against them in alberta. example the NDP and liberals agreeing to only run one candidate in ridings of their favours. That spirit is pretty gone but considering the tories have upwards of 50% in Alberta, providing an alternative is the only real posibility for a united front against them in Alberta by only running one opposition candidate in each riding in Alberta. Edited March 19, 2013 by shortlived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PIK Posted March 19, 2013 Report Share Posted March 19, 2013 Tommy's people will be going back to the bloc for the next election. They just used the NDP as a host body untill they can get the bloc going again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortlived Posted March 19, 2013 Report Share Posted March 19, 2013 (edited) Tommy's people will be going back to the bloc for the next election. They just used the NDP as a host body untill they can get the bloc going again. What makes you so certain of this........? They are polling way higher than the block in Quebec. http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201302/21/01-4623940-sondage-le-npd-semble-bien-ancre-au-quebec.php I wouldn't be suprised if they take a chunk of the Atlantic in addition to Quebec in 2015, paired up with the liberals, although there are some strong seats in NB I would question if they will hold both the Liberals and NDP regionally could assert. a forte présence du NPD au Québec n'est pas un accident de parcours, le parti de Thomas Mulcair continue de dominer dans les intentions de vote au Québec Its not an short term issue come 2015 either, as a very large chunk of the senior players in the current party will be left, leaving pretty much just a rump, including Harper (which if he does run again he could be relegated to opposition leader again - he still has an election or two left in him, and I don't think he would loose his seat), I wouldn't be surprised if McKay (as the last remaining leader) of the merger takes over the reigns, otherwise it risks reverting to a "west only party". I'm not so sure Clement is PM quality, I don't know him but his personality doesn't ring with me as PM personality, I could be wrong though. I think people like Flaherty and Toews are increasingly looking like retirement prospects, and the people already over 65, seem an odd crew to be continuing to run in their 70's and 80's, its just weird, although true there are a lot of boomers and people can die or get ill at any age, its just weird to have such an old government. If they don't get beaten back in the next one I will be suprised. On the topic of McKay though I find it weird if facing an ever increasing chance of war with Iran, that he being married to an Iranian-Canadian might present an odd backdrop. Overall though this is just what the press paints as potentials, I don't have a ear to the doors of people to hear what they are really saying, but I'm not convinced. Of course the Liberals havn't publically put out a platform yet, and I think thats not likely until late 2014. But there is no reason to be polarized. I think the appetite for Canadians for a 20 year party that only adds debt is problematic. I'm just not seeing any delivery. Although there have been gains in the west, the rest of Canada has melted away, and thats not good anywhere but Alberta. They may keep buying the vote by tax cuts and hand outs on the backs of the future with mounting public debt as personal debt also continues to increase. Its just government with a credit card. Too little too late, changes are being dragged out even with a majority, and they arn't delivering on key reforms. Sure no contraversy but I don't see them as peforming, correct me if I am wrong but what have been their accomplishments while in Majority? The NDP could even take Newfoundland. Edited March 19, 2013 by shortlived Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UofGPolitico Posted March 23, 2013 Report Share Posted March 23, 2013 (edited) I don't think he will step down this summer, but its not out of the realm of possibility that Harper does not fight the election as leader in 2015. I think it all depends on how real this Trudeaumania 2.0 really is. I think there will definitely be a honeymoon effect once Trudeau is appointed leader, but does that last? You have to think the Conservative war room is just chomping at the bit to define him very early... and Trudeau has enough public gaffes over the years to definitely help them with that. However, if Trudeau can consolidate his celebrity into actual firm support heading into 2015, I think the chances increase substantially that Harper gracefully exits in late 2014 making way for Kim Campbell 2.0. Notwithstanding the Trudeau issue, slight cracks are definitely emerging within the Conservative caucus and that is a sign it may be time for the leader to consider stepping down, considering how airtight that caucus has been since Harper became PM. Harper is still young enough to have a career outside public life, he may take that chance. Harper is if anything, a very intelligent man. I am sure he is weighing this decision as tactically as he has weight any political decision in his career. Edited March 23, 2013 by UofGPolitico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RNG Posted March 23, 2013 Report Share Posted March 23, 2013 Haven't seen many poll results that backs what you are claiming. If anything,there is more of a split on the right between the conservatives and liberals. WWWTT Admittedly I am looking at it from a western perspective, but I can't see that. It appears that it has always been a Liberal/NDP splitting. And that sure was the battle cry of the Liberals to explain their pounding in Quebec and Ontario in the last fed election. How do you come to your conclusion that there is now a Conervative/Liberal splitting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RNG Posted March 23, 2013 Report Share Posted March 23, 2013 (edited) I don't think he will step down this summer, but its not out of the realm of possibility that Harper does not fight the election as leader in 2015. I think it all depends on how real this Trudeaumania 2.0 really is. I think there will definitely be a honeymoon effect once Trudeau is appointed leader, but does that last? You have to think the Conservative war room is just chomping at the bit to define him very early... and Trudeau has enough public gaffes over the years to definitely help them with that. However, if Trudeau can consolidate his celebrity into actual firm support heading into 2015, I think the chances increase substantially that Harper gracefully exits in late 2014 making way for Kim Campbell 2.0. Notwithstanding the Trudeau issue, slight cracks are definitely emerging within the Conservative caucus and that is a sign it may be time for the leader to consider stepping down, considering how airtight that caucus has been since Harper became PM. Harper is still young enough to have a career outside public life, he may take that chance. Harper is if anything, a very intelligent man. I am sure he is weighing this decision as tactically as he has weight any political decision in his career. One of the problems the Conservatives have is I don't see any rising stars in the wings. One problem with Harper's complete control. Edited March 23, 2013 by RNG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UofGPolitico Posted March 23, 2013 Report Share Posted March 23, 2013 One of the problems the Conservatives have is I don't see any rising stars in the wings. One problem with Harper's complete control. Definitely... it would make for a pretty open leadership race. Brad Wall is someone who comes to mind as a potential star, but who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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