j44 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 did anyone guess around 332 for Obama? I wasn't even prepared to say 300 and I'm a big supporter. Quote
cybercoma Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 obama 305-310 electoral votes... My prediction. Obama: Strong - 281 Leaning - 22 Total - 303 Strong states: Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Minnesota, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New York, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, New Jersey, D.C, Vermont. Leaning states: Virginia, Colorado. ~~~~~ Romney: Strong - 206 Leaning - none Total - 206 Strong states: Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, North/South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North/South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana. Leaning: none Toss up: Florida. wyly and Slippy called it. Quote
wyly Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 did anyone guess around 332 for Obama? I wasn't even prepared to say 300 and I'm a big supporter. I was closest at 305-310...I wanted to predict higher but chickened out... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
Smallc Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 Nate Silver certainly called it....good for him . Quote
cybercoma Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 Nate Silver certainly called it....good for him . I don't see a better model for election predictions out there. He aggregates all of the polls, then considers their historical accuracy among other things. He's predicting these things within 1%. Quote
wyly Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 wyly and Slippy called it. early on I thought Obama would win Florida but then he appeared to be losing it...so I lowered my guesstimate... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
cybercoma Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 early on I thought Obama would win Florida but then he appeared to be losing it...so I lowered my guesstimate... I was overly generous to Romney. Quote
wyly Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 I don't see a better model for election predictions out there. He aggregates all of the polls, then considers their historical accuracy among other things. He's predicting these things within 1%. certainly better than Rasmussen doing phone polling on landlines only... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
wyly Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 I was overly generous to Romney. I think that's due to partisan polling...creating an illusion/atmosphere of winning, encouraging people to join the winning team,... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
Michael Hardner Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 I was closest at 305-310...I wanted to predict higher but chickened out... Congratulations. I wasn't going to jump in on that game but it seems like it wasn't as crazy a game as thought. Quote Click to learn why Climate Change is caused by HUMANS Michael Hardner
bush_cheney2004 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 No. Not like that at all, but thanks for your insightful and topical Canadian politics reference yet again in the US politics forum. You're welcome, as I always strive to increase understanding of foreign events by drawing parallels to the Canadian experience. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
j44 Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 I was closest at 305-310...I wanted to predict higher but chickened out... early on I thought Obama would win Florida but then he appeared to be losing it...so I lowered my guesstimate... I didnt want to be too optimistic (I\m too superstitious) I didn't give him Florida but even if I did I would only have put him at 315 or so. I thought Va was way more in play. Quote
wyly Posted November 7, 2012 Report Posted November 7, 2012 I didnt want to be too optimistic (I\m too superstitious) I didn't give him Florida but even if I did I would only have put him at 315 or so. I thought Va was way more in play. we amateurs can be forgiven for doubting ourselves when the "experts" are saying Obama won't reach 300 or may even lose...I just did a simple count of states Obama was expected to win and was likely to win and kept coming up with 300+...one "expert" ( I can't recall who)claimed somewhere around 330 but he was obviously insane or an idiot ... Quote “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservatives.”- John Stuart Mill
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