Liberal leadership

Newfoundlander · July 24, 2012

Wow I never even thought of him making the Bob Rae like jump back into the federal arena!

He did have success with the tories in the later part of the 90's to.

But if he leaves Quebec provincial politics where will the Quebec provincial liberals be?How will his departure affect Quebec?

Perhaps I am not fluent enough in Quebec politics to extrapolate any involved ideas about this scenario?

I will give Charest this,he does seem to be popular,and perhaps after seeing Jack Layton's success he may have regretted leaving the tories.

WWWTT

Not the greatest track record as premier though.

bleeding heart · July 24, 2012

Clueless.

No provincial PM has ever become a federal PM - least of all an Ontario PM. (Unlike the US, where only southern governors become President.)

Yeah. Except that's not entirely true, is it?

August1991 · July 24, 2012

Yeah. Except that's not entirely true, is it?

Name one federal PM who was a provincial PM. John Thompson, maybe.

More pertinently, name any successful provincial politician who has gone on to any success at the federal level. (Many have tried; few have succeeded.)

The reverse is possible: federal to provincial, but rare.

If McGunity becomes federal leader I'll cut up my membership into small pieces and eat them on youtube - or perhaps just mail them back to the party with a letter for them to eff off and that I don't want to be associated with that arse.

McGuinty is unelectable in federal Canada, and ultimately this explains why the federal Liberals never chose Rae as leader - and why he is not running now.

However, if Charest runs, I'll volunteer for him full time.

First, what federal party would Charest lead? Liberals, Tories? NDP?

Second, too many voters in too many other regions of Canada would never vote for Charest, ex-PM of Quebec.

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B_C's list above is impressive. I have always been vaguely surprised when English Canadians grince at any comparison to America. B_C's list is a stark reminder of the difference between English Canada and America.

Edited July 24, 2012 by August1991

WWWTT · July 24, 2012

B_C's list above is impressive. I have always been vaguely surprised when English Canadians grince at any comparison to America. B_C's list is a stark reminder of the difference between English Canada and America.

US can not be effectively compared to Canada politically in this manner.

First off,the US states have greater power in relation to their federal counterpart in comparison to Canadian provinces in relation to our federal counterparts.

Secondly,there are many more US states compared to provinces.Ontario equates to roughly one third of all Canadians(33%).The largest populous US state California I believe equates to roughly 10% of all Americans.

I believe the election rules are different to.In the Canadian parliamentary system,a sitting provincial MPP must first resign,then jump federally.This is very risky and discourages many!

However in the US,the last governor/president George Bush,did not resign Texas until after he won the presidency.

If McGuinty jumps ship it will be after he resigns provincial politics,which is very possible!

Keep in mind that after the PC and alliance merger,Mike Harris was seriously considering making the run and may have circumvented Harper for the title had it not been for the findings from an Iperwash inquiry!(Ironic)

WWWTT

Newfoundlander · July 25, 2012

I think Charest would probably be more popular outside Quebec than inside. He's supposedly a Liberal suporter now as well.

punked · July 25, 2012

Name one federal PM who was a provincial PM. John Thompson, maybe.

More pertinently, name any successful provincial politician who has gone on to any success at the federal level. (Many have tried; few have succeeded.)

Tommy Douglas? Robert Stanfield?

Wild Bill · July 25, 2012

Tommy Douglas? Robert Stanfield?

Jim Flaherty? Tony Clement?

punked · July 25, 2012

Jim Flaherty? Tony Clement?

I was just talking about party leaders but yah there are plenty of examples.

bleeding heart · July 29, 2012

Name one federal PM who was a provincial PM. John Thompson, maybe.

Sorry, I should have truncated your remarks when I quoted them, for clarity.

I meant this:

(Unlike the US, where only southern governors become President.)

August1991 · July 29, 2012

Tommy Douglas? Robert Stanfield?

They were federal party leaders, but were never elected federal PM.

Duff Roblin is a good example of a provincial PM who tried to become a federal leader but there are many others.

Jim Flaherty? Tony Clement?

They were provincial cabinet ministers who went on to become federal cabinet ministers.

All four examples are relatively rare in Canada. Note that all four were/are not Liberals. (I think that Flaherty gets a free pass because he is identifiably Catholic.)

Jean Lesage and Jean Charest were federal cabinet ministers who went on to become Quebec PMs. Bob Rae was a federal MP before becoming Ontario's PM.

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Compared to other countries (the US, France, even Germany - dunno), it is rare/impossible for a Canadian politician to succeed locally and then federally. I think that the reason is that Canadian federal politics are fundamentally regional, not ideological.

In Canadian federal elections, we don't vote along ideological lines; we vote according to region.

August1991 · July 29, 2012

I think Charest would probably be more popular outside Quebec than inside. He's supposedly a Liberal suporter now as well.

Charest is the proverbial cat with 9 lives. The question now is how many times the car just missed him, or the jump from the balcony was not fatal - 7 or 8 times? Clearly, he lost a tail in one of those mishaps.

Will the next truck flatten Patapouffe? (Or rather Pookie - since his birth name was John James Charest and that's the name he used in 1984 when he became a federal cabinet minister.)

Edited July 29, 2012 by August1991

cybercoma · July 29, 2012

They were federal party leaders, but were never elected federal PM.

The Prime Minister isn't elected. The PM is appointed by the monarch or its representative. In fact, the PM doesn't even need a seat in Parliament. Edited July 29, 2012 by cybercoma

WWWTT · July 29, 2012

Compared to other countries (the US, France, even Germany - dunno), it is rare/impossible for a Canadian politician to succeed locally and then federally. I think that the reason is that Canadian federal politics are fundamentally regional, not ideological.

In Canadian federal elections, we don't vote along ideological lines; we vote according to region.

This is false.

In order to make the jump it is traditional for a sitting MPP to first resign their seat.(or just be voted out like Tony Clement)

Not like in the US.

George Bush Jr did not retire Texas well after winning in 2000.

WWWTT

August1991 · July 29, 2012

The Prime Minister isn't elected. The PM is appointed by the monarch or its representative. In fact, the PM doesn't even need a seat in Parliament.

Whatever.

Newfoundlander · July 29, 2012

They were federal party leaders, but were never elected federal PM.

Duff Roblin is a good example of a provincial PM who tried to become a federal leader but there are many others.

They were provincial cabinet ministers who went on to become federal cabinet ministers.

All four examples are relatively rare in Canada. Note that all four were/are not Liberals. (I think that Flaherty gets a free pass because he is identifiably Catholic.)

Jean Lesage and Jean Charest were federal cabinet ministers who went on to become Quebec PMs. Bob Rae was a federal MP before becoming Ontario's PM.

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Compared to other countries (the US, France, even Germany - dunno), it is rare/impossible for a Canadian politician to succeed locally and then federally. I think that the reason is that Canadian federal politics are fundamentally regional, not ideological.

In Canadian federal elections, we don't vote along ideological lines; we vote according to region.

Sheila Copps was a provincial politican before entering federal politics and Brian Tobin was a federal politican, before becoming premier, before he became a federal politican again.

WWWTT · July 29, 2012

The Prime Minister isn't elected. The PM is appointed by the monarch or its representative. In fact, the PM doesn't even need a seat in Parliament.

I think August1991 is trying to say PM elect.Not to be confused with Turner or Campbell.

I think the PM still needs a seat,either the senate or lower house.

WWWTT

cybercoma · July 29, 2012

Whatever.

It's an important distinction.

cybercoma · July 29, 2012

You see, not all Prime Ministers are equal, as is the case with US Presidents for example. Kim Campbell, Joe Clark, and John Turner are not on the same level as PMs as say Trudeau, Mulroney, or Chretien.

August1991 · July 29, 2012

George Bush Jr did not retire Texas well after winning in 2000.

So what. Sarah Palin resigned. Bush Jnr didn't. Nixon lost two elections, and then was a bond lawyer in NY.

Mackenzie King was elected in Saskatchewan (because he lost in Ontario). I think Macdonald did the same switch in the same election.

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WWWTT, it seems that to you, it matters whether Joe Lieberman could remain a Senator while running for VP.

In Canada, it used to be that if a MP was named to cabinet in a reshuffle after a general election, the MP had to resign and face a byelection.

Democracy? The rules matter, and they don't. IMHO, the most important rule of any civilized State: It is possible to throw the buggers out peacefully.

If this rule is applied according to the lottery of popular vote, democracy, then it matters how ordinary people cast their ballot.

Edited July 29, 2012 by August1991

Newfoundlander · July 29, 2012

I should also add that John Crosbie was a high profile provincial politician before becoming a high profile federal politician, and there are other examples in Newfoundland and Labrador.

I think one reason we've seen few premiers be successful in federal politics, and thus become prime minister, is due to very few premiers being Danny Williams and Gary Doer. Williams retired at the top of his game, 92% approval rating, while Doer's appointment came while he was still very popular. Many premiers are either defeated in elections or are forced out due to their unpopularity. As well unless you have a strong track record from provincial politics, like Williams and Doer, then you're not going to succeed federally, an example of this is Bob Rae. If you couldn't manage a province properly then you're going to have a tough time convincing people you can manage a country any better.

Here's a perfect example of what I mean.

August1991 · July 29, 2012

I should also add that John Crosbie was a high profile provincial politician before becoming a high profile federal politician, and there are other examples in Newfoundland and Labrador.

John Crosbie is an interesting example. He was not accepted as a potential federal leader because he could not speak French. He aspired to be a federal leader, and I think that he ran to be leader of the Newfoundland Liberal party, against Smallwood. (True?) With Clyde Wells, he certainly stood up to Smallwood.

I was impressed when Harper named him as Lieutenant-Governor.

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Crosbie could neither be a federal leader, nor a provincial leader. Such is Canada.

Edited July 29, 2012 by August1991

WWWTT · July 29, 2012

So what. Sarah Palin resigned. Bush Jnr didn't. Nixon lost two elections, and then was a bond lawyer in NY.

Mackenzie King was elected in Saskatchewan (because he lost in Ontario). I think Macdonald did the same switch in the same election.

Actually I forgot to add something.

When you must first resign one post to seek another,you are then faced with the risk of ending up with neither post.

I know people who have decided to stay put because of this risk.

In the US this risk is not there so therefore it does not prevent governors,senators,etc,etc from making the run.

Things look a lot different depending on your perspective.

WWWTT

Newfoundlander · July 30, 2012

John Crosbie is an interesting example. He was not accepted as a potential federal leader because he could not speak French. He aspired to be a federal leader, and I think that he ran to be leader of the Newfoundland Liberal party, against Smallwood. (True?) With Clyde Wells, he certainly stood up to Smallwood.

I was impressed when Harper named him as Lieutenant-Governor.

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Crosbie could neither be a federal leader, nor a provincial leader. Such is Canada.

Crosbie lost to Smallwood after Smallwood decided he didn't want him to be premier. Many say that Crosbie was the de factor premier when Frank Moores was premier, also a former federal politician. As for the leadership of the federal PC Party it is believed he would have beat both Mulroney adm Clark one on one.

Newfoundlander · August 16, 2012

Marc Garneau seems ready to launch his bid.

TheNewTeddy · August 16, 2012

LOL!!!

The only thing funnier than "Garneau 4 Leader" is Garneau as leader!! :lol:

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Trudeau will run and win, but who else will do well, that is a good question. I honestly think Brison can run and do very very well. Brison, depending on who else runs, could finish second. If so, Trudeau could make him the Deputy and give him charge over money issues, signalling a move to the centre. I don't think any others from the Atlantic could do well.

Heading in from the west, I'm also drawing blanks. Nenshi could actually win if he runs but he will not run. Ontario has a lot of people who could be interesting. If David McGunity gets his brother's backing it could make things fun, but I don't see that. I'm wondering of Sorbara really wants to go home or wants to run federally. Bennett might be an interesting candidate. McCallum too.

Frankly, all the really interesting names are from Montreal. Coderre, Cauchon, Cotler, Garneau, Trudeau, maybe even a "so I wasn't so bad after all" Dion2 run.