Ontario - Polls put PC's into potential Majority, NDP in second if

[MiddleClassCentrist]

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/pcs-lead-ndp-second-in-ontario.html

Hmmm. Doubt the opposition will call it.

Edited April 20, 2012 by MiddleClassCentrist

[Topaz]

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/pcs-lead-ndp-second-in-ontario.html

Hmmm. Doubt the opposition will call it.

Well the only thing I would say is the voters around Toronto were responsible for Harper getting back in, so if Hudak gets in, its the same people doing the dirty deed and will probably regret it. I rather see a minority government and since there are more voters not doing well in Ontario, I think the NDP could fill that void. If the PC has chose another leader they would have a better chance, Hudak is not worthy of being Premier but its all in the hands of voters around Toronto.

[madmax]

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/04/pcs-lead-ndp-second-in-ontario.html

Hmmm. Doubt the opposition will call it.

Misleading thread title

These polls show the PCs in a Minority Situation, and not any closer to A majority then in any time in the Previous polls.

Perhaps the most startling part of these polls in in the outcomes...

The New Democrats, meanwhile, lead in northwestern Ontario with 57% (+14), northern Ontario with 40% (+9), northeastern Ontario with 37% (+8), and the 905 Area Code with 35% (+3).

It is a very close three-way race. The PCs lead in eastern Ontario with 43% (unchanged) and southwestern Ontario with 37% (+2), and are tied for the lead in the GTA with 32% (+1).

The Liberals are ahead in the 416 Area Code with 37% (-7) and are tied for first with 32% (-4) in the GTA.

What we really see is a 3 way race.

The NDP have surged up 8 points in total. The PCs are status Quo. The Libs have fallen.

And when one looks at the Leadership Ratings...

Hudaks approval is only 24% compared to Horwaths 46%.

If the NDP only looked at polling numbers and trends...they should go for it...

60% don't want an election 6 months after the last one.

[madmax]

And here is a new poll

Nanos poll:

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/Ontario%20Ballot%202012-04.pdf

LIB: 35.4

PC: 32.1

NDP: 26.5

Edited April 20, 2012 by madmax

[Boges]

I think Nanos is funded by the Liberal party because it's the only polling company that's had them in the lead since the election. They only polled like 500 people. That's half of what most reputable polling companies do.

Especially coming after yesterday's news that hydro rates are going up by around 6% starting in May.

We don't have supply issues but the idiotic ideologues at the Liberal party are ruining Ontario with this Green Energy Policy.

Oh and throwing money down the drain by cancelling power plants in Liberal ridings.

I don't think Dalton likes Ontarians very much.

[Newfoundlander]

In October Nanos had support for the Liberals two points higher and the PCs underestimated by two, and were spot on with the NDP and Greens.

[nittanylionstorm07]

From what I remember about Nanos in the Federal Election, they were always the slowest to update their numbers with the NDP surge. It's no surprise they still have the libs in the lead.

That said, newest polls suggest a Tory minority, NDP opposition, Liberal third party situation.

[madmax]

I think Nanos is funded by the Liberal party because it's the only polling company that's had them in the lead since the election. They only polled like 500 people. That's half of what most reputable polling companies do.

Well I guess you just blew your own thread all to crap... read the polling information below on the one your started this thread with....

The PC's are up two points from 35 percent, while the NDP has surged by seven from 23 percent last fall. The Greens increased their support by three percentage points.

The telephone poll of 500 Ontario adults was conducted April 10-13.... the margin of error for a sample this size is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at 95 times out of 100.

While I agree in the last 3 rounds of polling Nanos is odd man out..they did poll 501 people

I certainly wouldn't risk an election with numbers in any of these polls..

It tells me the electorate is taking a holiday from elections.

IF one comes.. it just can't be the "protest" vote that Hudak is looking for, nor can it be driven by insider PC partisans who want an election now... so that they can turf Hudak and go for Elliot.

[Boges]

Well I guess you just blew your own thread all to crap... read the polling information below on the one your started this thread with....

The PC's are up two points from 35 percent, while the NDP has surged by seven from 23 percent last fall. The Greens increased their support by three percentage points.

The telephone poll of 500 Ontario adults was conducted April 10-13.... the margin of error for a sample this size is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points at 95 times out of 100.

While I agree in the last 3 rounds of polling Nanos is odd man out..they did poll 501 people

I certainly wouldn't risk an election with numbers in any of these polls..

It tells me the electorate is taking a holiday from elections.

IF one comes.. it just can't be the "protest" vote that Hudak is looking for, nor can it be driven by insider PC partisans who want an election now... so that they can turf Hudak and go for Elliot.

Not my thread dood. Forum Research has been polling since the OLG plans were released that the Tories were ahead.

Edited April 20, 2012 by Boges

[Topaz]

Well, I doubt the Liberals will get back in, if we go to an election because of ther budget, because now that hydro rates are going up again plus the 10% is coming off and then there's the refunds that low senior get back, will now be paid in a monthly payments instead of lump sum, which most seniors want the lump sum payment.

[Boges]

So far the Libs haven't given the NDP anything they asked for to support their budget.

Will the Dippers roll over if all they do is raise taxes for people making $500,000+?

These polls show that the NDP might become the second party in an impending election, that might be a tempting fruit.

You could also say that a year from now might be a better time to take these guys down. As the news of ORNGE is made more public. More hydro increases, more job losses in rural Ontario, The Liberals might be in the teens in a year.

[Michael Hardner]

These polls show that the NDP might become the second party in an impending election, that might be a tempting fruit.

Maybe, maybe... but there would also be a huge backlash for causing an early election.

[madmax]

Not my thread dood. Forum Research has been polling since the OLG plans were released that the Tories were ahead.

DOH!

[madmax]

Maybe, maybe... but there would also be a huge backlash for causing an early election.

This sounds interesting?

Ontario NDP leader says Liberal 'arrogance' could topple government

Horwath blames Liberal "arrogance"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/04/20/toronto-horwath-ndp.html

[MiddleClassCentrist]

Maybe, maybe... but there would also be a huge backlash for causing an early election.

The key is, can they successfully pin it on the Liberals for "not negotiating" in good faith?

I'd wager that the PC's come out best, though they still need to change their figure head.

Edited April 20, 2012 by MiddleClassCentrist

[Boges]

I'd wager that the PC's come out best, though they still need to change their figure head.

You know Dalton McGuinty got his ass handed to him the first election he ran as leader. Why won't people give Hudak a second chance? Unless anyone can come up with another potential leader who'd do a better job just let him lead.

[Boges]

This sounds interesting?

Ontario NDP leader says Liberal 'arrogance' could topple government

Horwath blames Liberal "arrogance"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/story/2012/04/20/toronto-horwath-ndp.html

They have been nothing but arrogant. Dalton responded to Horvath's demands by asked what she'd cut from the budget as if he's some excellent steward of the taxpayer's money.

Fact is these A-holes got Ontario into a huge hole and now they're putting it on everyone else to get them out of this hole.

[Michael Hardner]

The key is, can they successfully pin it on the Liberals for "not negotiating" in good faith?

I'd wager that the PC's come out best, though they still need to change their figure head.

I don't think they'd be able to pin it on the Liberals. PC minority government seems possible in this scenario.

[nittanylionstorm07]

You know Dalton McGuinty got his ass handed to him the first election he ran as leader. Why won't people give Hudak a second chance? Unless anyone can come up with another potential leader who'd do a better job just let him lead.

Did you not see how incompetently Hudak ran the last election for the PCs?

[punked]

You know Dalton McGuinty got his ass handed to him the first election he ran as leader. Why won't people give Hudak a second chance? Unless anyone can come up with another potential leader who'd do a better job just let him lead.

Because he is unlikable.

[Boges]

Did you not see how incompetently Hudak ran the last election for the PCs?

Yeah but you can't keep turfing each leader after they lose one election or you'll end up looking like the Liberal Party of Canada.

The Libs only beat the PCs by 2 points even though Hudak ran a horrible race. He admitted his errors and one would hope he won't make them again.

[nittanylionstorm07]

The key is, can they successfully pin it on the Liberals for "not negotiating" in good faith?

I'd wager that the PC's come out best, though they still need to change their figure head.

If the Liberals do not give anything to the NDP, then the public would be pretty aware of that and would be okay with the NDP not supporting the budget. Horwath has been communicating very effectively to the public, and she would be able to paint the Liberals at fault easily for the election... especially considering how the Liberals are currently viewed.

If the Liberals only give the raise on taxes for $500,000+ incomes but nothing else, it becomes a bit harder for the NDP since that is the most visible plank in the budget for them. Horwath may be able to get the public on her side because she is so effective at communicating, but it is not as much of a guarantee as it would be in the first situation.

[Newfoundlander]

The election is off. If there had been one I think McGuinty was in a strong position, even if he's behind a bit in polling. Hudak was set for a majority government heading into the last election and McGuinty just missed a third majority, despite his unpopularity. There was talk last summer that the Ontario Liberals would be in third place after the election.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Yeah but you can't keep turfing each leader after they lose one election or you'll end up looking like the Liberal Party of Canada.

The Libs only beat the PCs by 2 points even though Hudak ran a horrible race. He admitted his errors and one would hope he won't make them again.

Yeah but the PCs pretty much had the election in the bag at the start of the campaign. For the much-reviled Liberals to win that election... not necessarily on McGuinty's performance, but on Hudak's incompetence... it says a lot. They should have replaced Hudak with someone a bit smarter.

The Liberals on the other hand never had a chance in any of the past three federal elections (minor exception with the beginning of 2011... Iggy was pretty incompetent though).

[nittanylionstorm07]

The election is off. If there had been one I think McGuinty was in a strong position, even if he's behind a bit in polling. Hudak was set for a majority government heading into the last election and McGuinty just missed a third majority, despite his unpopularity. There was talk last summer that the Ontario Liberals would be in third place after the election.

You're kidding right? McGuinty would not have been in a strong position at all. Even if Hudak ran an equally incompetent campaign (quite possible), people would be so fed up with both the Liberals and Hudak that they would have voted the NDP in. We're already seeing the NDP skyrocket in opinion polls in the province.. no reason to believe otherwise.