One Last Kick at the Liberals

[Evening Star]

With around 50% of voters choosing CPC, they are unlikely to swing to the NDP. That was my point.

I'm not sure that swing is as unlikely as you claim it to be. MB, SK, BC, and NS have all elected NDP provincial governments. (In three of them, voters do tend to swing between the NDP and a right-wing party provincially.) It is entirely possible that the NDP could pick up seats there. The NDP lost many Western seats to Reform in the 90s. They picked up a number of Conservative seats in the last election. Seats can swing from one end of the left-right spectrum to the other.

I'm not saying any of this guarantees an NDP win. Everything could turn against them. But, as punked said, their chance is as good as anyone's.

How many of you predicted an NDP Official Opposition with >100 seats even a month before the election btw?

Edited May 30, 2011 by Evening Star

[CPCFTW]

I'm not sure that swing is as unlikely as you claim it to be. MB, SK, BC, and NS have all elected NDP provincial governments. (In three of them, voters do tend to swing between the NDP and a right-wing party provincially.) It is entirely possible that the NDP could pick up seats there. The NDP lost many Western seats to Reform in the 90s. They picked up a number of Conservative seats in the last election. Seats can swing from one end of the left-right spectrum to the other.

I'm not saying any of this guarantees an NDP win. Everything could turn against them. But, as punked said, their chance is as good as anyone's.

How many of you predicted an NDP Official Opposition with >100 seats even a month before the election btw?

Well at least you understood my point. That is a good argument. Like I said, anything can happen in 4 years, we'll have to wait to find out.

[eyeball]

The majority of Canada believes in fiscal conservatism with some socialism sprinkled in.

But not a police state. So if the Liberals mention long gun registration ever again they have snowball's chance in a hell.

They have little if any problem at all with a police state. If the Conservatives mention mandatory marijuana sentences few if any will so much as bat an eye.

Not that I'd ever let a Liberal anywhere near my civil liberties either but...I'm just sayin'.

[Wild Bill]

I'm not sure that swing is as unlikely as you claim it to be. MB, SK, BC, and NS have all elected NDP provincial governments. (In three of them, voters do tend to swing between the NDP and a right-wing party provincially.) It is entirely possible that the NDP could pick up seats there. The NDP lost many Western seats to Reform in the 90s. They picked up a number of Conservative seats in the last election. Seats can swing from one end of the left-right spectrum to the other.

I'm not saying any of this guarantees an NDP win. Everything could turn against them. But, as punked said, their chance is as good as anyone's.

How many of you predicted an NDP Official Opposition with >100 seats even a month before the election btw?

You can keep rolling the bones forever Star but the most important factor is that virtually ALL of the NDP's gains came from Quebec! Extra seats were few in the rest of Canada.

This makes predictions much harder. It's obvious that most of the Quebec voters knew little or nothing about the NDP. You don't elect MP's that can't speak french and who campaign while on vacation, or who have never even visited the riding (!) because of an intellectual epiphany. It was pretty much an emotional reaction. The Quebecois were sick of the PQ, disgusted with the Liberals, unsure about the Tories but desperate for an alternative. So desperate that they took a leap in the dark for a party they knew almost nothing about.

THESE are the true factors! It is how well the other parties react to them in forming their campaign strategy during the NEXT election that will tell the tale!

I think a huge number of Canadians everywhere are sick of the incumbents and as desperate as Quebec was to have a better alternative. Bad enough for the Tories but especially bad for the Liberals when an electorate would rather vote for a total unknown than for a party that has been a strong leader since Confederation!

The parties involved had better spend the next 4-5 years doing some serious thinking, especially the Liberals!

[Wild Bill]

I'm not sure that swing is as unlikely as you claim it to be. MB, SK, BC, and NS have all elected NDP provincial governments. (In three of them, voters do tend to swing between the NDP and a right-wing party provincially.) It is entirely possible that the NDP could pick up seats there. The NDP lost many Western seats to Reform in the 90s. They picked up a number of Conservative seats in the last election. Seats can swing from one end of the left-right spectrum to the other.

I'm not saying any of this guarantees an NDP win. Everything could turn against them. But, as punked said, their chance is as good as anyone's.

How many of you predicted an NDP Official Opposition with >100 seats even a month before the election btw?

Not many of us. Still, I predicted a Tory majority and also a terrible showing for the Liberals. This implied gains for the NDP but I admit I never saw 100+ seats and Official Opposition status coming!

So I was right on the first and right on the second, only a bit too timid on just how much better the NDP would fare.

[Molly]

With around 50% of voters choosing CPC, they are unlikely to swing to the NDP. That was my point.

And there, exactly is the problem, CPCFTW.

When dealing with a binary question -a dichotomy, yes/no,black/white, yin/yang- then if it ain't yin, it must be yang, and there's no 'swing' about it. A hairsbreadth nuance of a lean is all it takes.

Mr. Harper has worked very hard indeed to create a two-party, clash of extremes system, and it may prove in the end to be as bad for the CPC as for the LPC. The NDP, though will almost certainly be the beneficiaries of that absence of a moderate option. Hold onto your hat. Unless the NDP stinks beyond stink in opposition and the LPC pulls off a miracle, we're on a one-way road to an NDP government. The CPC will not govern in perpetuity/lots of folks who would describe themselves as Tories are already sick to death of them, disgusted and fearful of what they plan to do/ so if NDP is the only alternative, then it's on.

[bloodyminded]

Seriously, the idea that a 15% corporate tax is a sensible centre-right policy but a 19% corporate tax is borderline communism seems almost comedic.

[Sandy MacNab]

And there, exactly is the problem, CPCFTW.

When dealing with a binary question -a dichotomy, yes/no,black/white, yin/yang- then if it ain't yin, it must be yang, and there's no 'swing' about it. A hairsbreadth nuance of a lean is all it takes.

Mr. Harper has worked very hard indeed to create a two-party, clash of extremes system, and it may prove in the end to be as bad for the CPC as for the LPC. The NDP, though will almost certainly be the beneficiaries of that absence of a moderate option. Hold onto your hat. Unless the NDP stinks beyond stink in opposition and the LPC pulls off a miracle, we're on a one-way road to an NDP government. The CPC will not govern in perpetuity/lots of folks who would describe themselves as Tories are already sick to death of them, disgusted and fearful of what they plan to do/ so if NDP is the only alternative, then it's on.

Yep, since May 2nd millions who voted CPC have become totally "disgusted and fearful". I, for one, am shaking in my boots and having a hard time keeping from peeing my pants.

Molly, you have paranoid delusions or need to get away to a safer neighbourhood.

[Evening Star]

You were implying that the only difference between the two parties was 4% more corporate tax.

That's not the only difference but it's a central one and I think it's typical of the differences between the parties. Maybe you can point me to the parts of the NDP platform (as opposed to a decades-old preamble to the party constitution) that advocate nationalizing the banks or abolishing landlordism...

Edited June 1, 2011 by Evening Star

[fellowtraveller]

Mr. Harper has worked very hard indeed to create a two-party, clash of extremes system, and it may prove in the end to be as bad for the CPC as for the LPC. The NDP, though will almost certainly be the beneficiaries of that absence of a moderate option. Hold onto your hat. Unless the NDP stinks beyond stink in opposition and the LPC pulls off a miracle, we're on a one-way road to an NDP government. The CPC will not govern in perpetuity/lots of folks who would describe themselves as Tories are already sick to death of them, disgusted and fearful of what they plan to do/ so if NDP is the only alternative, then it's on.

Wow, what a complete and utter misread of reality.

In fact, the Tories have moved themselves the other way- to the center-and brought a buttload of former Liberals with them. It is the Liberals worst nightmare, losing the center.

The NDP have no hope whatsoever of claiming significant ground in the ROC unless they do the same.

Here is the problem for the NDP over the next 4 years, and it is very real one.

They are on probation in Quebec with Quebecois. They have to do what is expected of the party that represents Quebec: gain maximum advanatge, maximum clout, maximum and disproportionate money for Quebec. That of course comes at the expense of the rest of Canada, as the pie grows no larger. If they fail, they will lose seats there, lots of them. If they succeed, they will alienate voters outside Quebec. Tough job for poor Jacques, he is going to be dancing on coals for 4 years. We've already seen that , with a different message inside and ouside the province on what it takes for Quebec to separate. It won't get any easier.

[thepatrickblack]

Do you really see the Liberals winning a significant number of seats in the West (ie. West of Sudbury) in the next election? It is a stretch for me to believe that the Liberals can win many seats in Quebec.

In short, one has to conclude that the Liberals will die simply because they can't win seats anywhere.

It used to be said that the Conservatives cannot win a majority without Quebec. I would venture to argue that the Liberals cannot win a majority now without the West. And if the Liberals cannot win, they are no longer a viable party.

Anything is possible, as you note: the CPC won without Quebec. But to your point about the party, I'm not sure the 'party' is all that important; it's all about philosophies. The Progressive Conservative party was ended and a new party with a broader brand was created. Years later, it is successful because PC supporters voted for it. They don't care that it is a different legal entity. The same will be true for the Liberals if they decide to change brands.

[Molly]

Yep, since May 2nd millions who voted CPC have become totally "disgusted and fearful".

Don't be an ass.

I'm not the only self-described Tory posting on this very forum board who wouldn't vote for these goofs on a bet or a dare, and certainly darned well didn't vote for a CPC candidate on May 2. The RL list is much,much longer, and the list of folks who have been looking in vain for an alternative- almost any alternative- is growing.

That nasty habit of personal aggression toward those who say things you don't want to hear is one of the least lovely traits of new Conservatives, and just one of the reasons so many who have a clue are 'disgusted and fearful'. Yours is a gang of thoughtless bullies, Sandy. Thoughtless bullies that don't seem to have much for self-imposed limits on their conduct.

(You fit well among 'em.)

[Sir Bandelot]

I'm not the only self-described Tory posting on this very forum board who wouldn't vote for these goofs on a bet or a dare, and certainly darned well didn't vote for a CPC candidate on May 2. The RL list is much,much longer, and the list of folks who have been looking in vain for an alternative- almost any alternative- is growing.

Canadian politics is destroyed. The Conservatives were hijacked by shameless 'quislings'. The Liberal party is on its knees before them.

Blame Dick Cheney

[Molly]

Canadian politics is destroyed.....

Blame Dick Cheney

I'm happy enough to blame the Liberal party for its own apparent demise, just as the death of the Progressive Conservative party was a suicide, not a murder.

There's plenty of reason not to vote Liberal past, present, and possibly future as well. There just happens to be a lot more reason for me to not vote CPC.

Nice prose, though. A charming shade of purple.

[Sir Bandelot]

I'm happy enough to blame the Liberal party for its own apparent demise, just as the death of the Progressive Conservative party was a suicide, not a murder.

There's plenty of reason not to vote Liberal past, present, and possibly future as well. There just happens to be a lot more reason for me to not vote CPC.

Nice prose, though. A charming shade of purple.

Why, thank you!

http://cwh.cetsi.com/drupal-6.19/node/13700

I almost never say something totally unsubstantiated...

[RNG]

Why, thank you!

http://cwh.cetsi.com/drupal-6.19/node/13700

I almost never say something totally unsubstantiated...

Some of us are less impressed by an op-ed from a questionable source.

[CPCFTW]

Why, thank you!

http://cwh.cetsi.com/drupal-6.19/node/13700

I almost never say something totally unsubstantiated...

That's your substantiation?

[Sir Bandelot]

Some of us are less impressed by an op-ed from a questionable source.

Hard to find more specific informtaion, but this criticism was written by US Rep. Ron Paul.

I didn't say that I absolutely stand by it. I won't defend it to my very last, as though I somehow KNOW it's true. I'm sitting behind a keyboard, for god sakes!

But some evidence is there, that the US has influenced Canadian politics. Why the hell wouldn't they? It is certainly in their best interests, politically, economically, ideologically to have their 'man' here on Parliament Hill. It's already being done elsewhere, indeed probably everywhere.

The National Endowment for Democracy is real, and is important to the US. Not just to promote democracy, but US friendly democracy, which we can argue that Canada is not. Or was not, entirely, at least until recent years.

Between this, and a certain visit to Ottawa in 2003 made by a certain US president, to hold a private meeting with a certain Canadian leader of the opposition, who eventually became the PM, I would not fall off my chair to find out it's real. Some of you might, though. And those of you who simply deny it categorically, have no idea how a superpower works.

[RNG]

Hard to find more specific informtaion, but this criticism was written by US Rep. Ron Paul.

I didn't say that I absolutely stand by it. I won't defend it to my very last, as though I somehow KNOW it's true. I'm sitting behind a keyboard, for god sakes!

But some evidence is there, that the US has influenced Canadian politics. Why the hell wouldn't they? It is certainly in their best interests, politically, economically, ideologically to have their 'man' here on Parliament Hill. It's already being done elsewhere, indeed probably everywhere.

The National Endowment for Democracy is real, and is important to the US. Not just to promote democracy, but US friendly democracy, which we can argue that Canada is not. Or was not, entirely, at least until recent years.

Between this, and a certain visit to Ottawa in 2003 made by a certain US president, to hold a private meeting with a certain Canadian leader of the opposition, who eventually became the PM, I would not fall off my chair to find out it's real. Some of you might, though. And those of you who simply deny it categorically, have no idea how a superpower works.

I strongly agree with a few of Ron Paul's views. But even more strongly suggest many of his positions are grossly over-simplistic. And come on, a few hundreds of thousands of dollars for the CPC is chump change.

[thepatrickblack]

I strongly agree with a few of Ron Paul's views. But even more strongly suggest many of his positions are grossly over-simplistic. And come on, a few hundreds of thousands of dollars for the CPC is chump change.

Agreed. He starts with a good idea: that people should be free to do what they want. There are some places where it works but the widespread implementation of it is ridiculous. Let corporations set their own safety standards? Get out of gun control? I don't want to live in the old West and I don't mind paying a bit extra to have breathable air.

[Wild Bill]

I'm happy enough to blame the Liberal party for its own apparent demise, just as the death of the Progressive Conservative party was a suicide, not a murder.

Molly, have you forgotten those times? The PCs may have 'suicided' by merging with the Alliance but they were a starved, emaciated, nearly dead Party by that time!

The only people left supporting them were a few diehard old Maritimers! How much longer could they have kept the PCs alive?

It was obvious that the chances for a PC comeback against the Alliance were less than zero! Hell, I was a scrutineer one election in Stoney Creek and at my poll not only did the Alliance totally whump the PCs but even the Yogic Flyers got more votes than the PC candidate did!

[Sir Bandelot]

Molly, have you forgotten those times? The PCs may have 'suicided' by merging with the Alliance but they were a starved, emaciated, nearly dead Party by that time!

The only people left supporting them were a few diehard old Maritimers! How much longer could they have kept the PCs alive?

It was obvious that the chances for a PC comeback against the Alliance were less than zero! Hell, I was a scrutineer one election in Stoney Creek and at my poll not only did the Alliance totally whump the PCs but even the Yogic Flyers got more votes than the PC candidate did!

But this outcome is not what they intended to do. Joe Clarke claims he was betrayed by Peter Mackay, et al. Let's stop revising history.

[Mr.Canada]

The Liberal party will never disappear and Canada needs three party system, especially with Harper and all his power. Harper , himself will be the reason the Liberals will be back. The NDP, got lucky this time but I don't think they can hold the power they have now and they are no match for someone so ?????? as Harper. Time will only tell.

The Tories are replacing the Liberal Party. Where is the hidden agenda that u lefties have been telling Canada about for the last 9 years? I'd like to know what Harpers hidden agenda is and when can we expect him to start instituting it?

[Molly]

But this outcome is not what they intended to do. Joe Clarke claims he was betrayed by Peter Mackay, et al. Let's stop revising history.

And the party only ever fell into the hands of Peter MacKay because it was already in death throes, a direct result of having abandoned all judgement to select Mr. Mulroney of the obviously doubtable ethics and the strange attitude to Quebec nationalism.

I have not forgotten, Bill. I'm still pretty darned bitter about it all.

[Keepitsimple]

And the party only ever fell into the hands of Peter MacKay because it was already in death throes, a direct result of having abandoned all judgement to select Mr. Mulroney of the obviously doubtable ethics and the strange attitude to Quebec nationalism.

I have not forgotten, Bill. I'm still pretty darned bitter about it all.

Wouldn't you think it's time you got over all of that? We have a similar chapter now - the Liberals are in their death throes and the party has fallen into the hands of Bob Rae. Who knows what will come out the other side - but it will not look the same as the "old" Liberal Party. Times change - people move on - the world changes - and Parties have to change with them. The Liberals never did and look what happened to them. Let it go Molly....if you're an old PC advocate, you should be starting to be pleased with Harper's slow and steady, incrementalist approach to bringing the Party back to the Center.

Edited June 4, 2011 by Keepitsimple