.

SuperFreak · May 3, 2011

Quebec is extremely fickle. AQ nearly wins provincal election, then get whipped out.

Not saying NDP will, just if NDP don't represent there new base, Quebecers won't hesitate to give them the boot.

Edited May 3, 2011 by SuperFreak

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

Quebec is extremely fickle. AQ nearly wins provincal election, then get whipped out.

Quebec very much is fickle. That's why I'm saying the NDP has one chance to figure out how to solidify it. If they can maintain a good level of support in Quebec in four years, well, that's one of the keys to the kingdom.

cybercoma · May 3, 2011

Obviously not all of Toronto, looking at the map of said city.

Apparently the Conservatives won 10 ridings with less than 50% of the vote. If there was run-off voting, they would have won 1.

Smallc · May 3, 2011

Apparently the Conservatives won 10 ridings with less than 50% of the vote. If there was run-off voting, they would have won 1.

Yes, okay, but as one who's always talking about proportional representation, that should tell you that Toronto isn't all that red. The fact that Conservatives got that much support there....

August1991 · May 3, 2011

I'd say a Federalist party replacing the Bloc in Quebec is a big change.

It looks rather like the Bloc (and a bizarre group of random people) has replaced the NDP.

As Denis Coderre said tonight, some of the NDP MPs will need simultaneous translation in their riding offices.

Michael Hardner · May 3, 2011

Obviously not all of Toronto, looking at the map of said city.

More Blue than 2008 but still Toronto is mostly Lib/NDP.

Smallc · May 3, 2011

More Blue than 2008 but still Toronto is mostly Lib/NDP.

Are you looking at the same map? Toronto was all red...now it's multicoloured. And just take a look at the GTA.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/

Edited May 3, 2011 by Smallc

ninjandrew · May 3, 2011

So... when does all the fun begin? How are these parties going to cooperate with each other?

And by cooperate, I mean work.

Edited May 3, 2011 by ninjandrew

Smallc · May 3, 2011

So... when does all the fun begin? How are these parties going to cooperate with each other?

It doesn't really matter anymore. The Conservatives only need to hold to the centre and cooperate with themselves.

Michael Hardner · May 3, 2011

Yes. Also reading Tweets and FB messages. Nobody is saying they voted CPC, but obviously some righty Libs did. Lots of angry messages flying by.

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

So... when does all the fun begin? How are these parties going to cooperate with each other?

The Tories have a majority. They don't have to co-operate any more. While the NDP has transformed the politics of the country, at least for four years, we're back to business as usual.

Vancouverite · May 3, 2011

Duceppe is history, just as Ignatieff is. The only question is what will happen to their parties.

The Liberals have been around for as long as Canada, so they may not disappear that easily. The voters may just have parked their votes with the NDP, until the reds select Justin Bieber, I mean, Justin Trudeau. If this is correct, then the NDP surge will shrink. The other possibility is that the NDP will make this a historic alignment, but, if they are to do so, they will have to eat the lunch of the Liberals, which will mean that they will have to become more like the so-called Natural Governing Party.

The Bloc has only been around a couple of decades, but they have a core ideology that attracts the pure-laine Quebecers, and that is not going to go away. The Bloc may be able to come back, but, then again, they may not. If they can win back their core voters, they'll get their seats back. If not, then their constituency will be up for grabs.

Both of the above themes show that the NDP have a chance - if they can take the votes from those two, they'll form the opposition and, maybe, some day, the government. But they may have an uphill struggle, at least with the Liberals, because the Liberals have very powerful interests and people with them, and they won't go easily.

So the next year will be very interesting indeed.

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

It looks rather like the Bloc (and a bizarre group of random people) has replaced the NDP.

As Denis Coderre said tonight, some of the NDP MPs will need simultaneous translation in their riding offices.

And I'm sure the next election will see some of those seats lost, or at least the NDP is going to have to firm up the riding associations. But the Tory victory has bought the NDP the one thing they needed if they're to have a hope in hell, and that's time.

August1991 · May 3, 2011

I'm listening to Layton's speech now and all I can say is that fortunately for Layton, most NDP voters in Quebec are asleep.

I don't see how this NDP caucus is going to work and relate in Quebec. The only elected NDP candidate interviewed tonight was Mulcair. The journalists know almost nothing about these people. It is as if they have no connection to Quebec, as if they are ghost MPs.

Even when the ADQ was elected in 2007, journalists interviewed several on the election night.

Edited May 3, 2011 by August1991

Smallc · May 3, 2011

So according to CBC, voter turnout still wasn't that good - around 61%.

SuperFreak · May 3, 2011

Yes. Also reading Tweets and FB messages. Nobody is saying they voted CPC, but obviously some righty Libs did. Lots of angry messages flying by.

People who voted CPC, or are happy CPC in power and not have to worry about NDP are celebrating or sleeping contently. People who are angry much more likely to be venting. Hard to sleep if you want to break stuff.

cybercoma · May 3, 2011

Yes, okay, but as one who's always talking about proportional representation, that should tell you that Toronto isn't all that red. The fact that Conservatives got that much support there....

Don't get me wrong. I'm not necessarily saying we need pure PR. In fact, I think pure PR would be terrible. All I'm saying is the system we have now is not representative and needs to be fixed.

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

Duceppe is history, just as Ignatieff is. The only question is what will happen to their parties.

The Liberals have been around for as long as Canada, so they may not disappear that easily. The voters may just have parked their votes with the NDP, until the reds select Justin Bieber, I mean, Justin Trudeau. If this is correct, then the NDP surge will shrink. The other possibility is that the NDP will make this a historic alignment, but, if they are to do so, they will have to eat the lunch of the Liberals, which will mean that they will have to become more like the so-called Natural Governing Party.

If the Liberals pick a lightweight like Justin Trudeau, then they will have erred badly. I honestly don't know who a good replacement to Iggy is, but Trudeau would be a bad one. He is not his old man, not by a mile.

The Bloc has only been around a couple of decades, but they have a core ideology that attracts the pure-laine Quebecers, and that is not going to go away. The Bloc may be able to come back, but, then again, they may not. If they can win back their core voters, they'll get their seats back. If not, then their constituency will be up for grabs.

And yet, for all of that, for generations Quebec backed Federalist parties. Part of it may just be soft nationalists switching parties, but I wonder if there is a generational change as well. While I wouldn't say separatism is going away, it is possible that a lot of Quebecers simply are not obsessed with constitutional questions.

Of course, the PQ will almost certainly win next year, so Layton is going to find himself with multiple challenges. But I cannot see the Bloc coming back from this. This isn't a defeat, it's a massacre.

Both of the above themes show that the NDP have a chance - if they can take the votes from those two, they'll form the opposition and, maybe, some day, the government. But they may have an uphill struggle, at least with the Liberals, because the Liberals have very powerful interests and people with them, and they won't go easily.

So the next year will be very interesting indeed.

I think the result, from an NDP perspective, is the best of all possibilities. Imagine if they had won enough seats to form a minority. They would have been obsessed with the tricky, often self-defeating kind of government involved in a minority, or worse in many ways, trying to keep some sort of coalition on step. With all those fresh faces in caucus, many of which will not be ready for prime time, the NDP needs that four years to sort out their house, figure out their new reality, and yes, time to possibly figure out who the truly unelectable nutjobs are (there's bound to be a few in a caucus of 100+ seats).

This is a potential launch pad to a real government run 2016. Maybe it won't pan out, I think the Quebec support is going to need a lot of work to create a permanent structure, but they've got the MPs now and the prestige of the Official Opposition to build on, as opposed to being the third wheel.

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

So according to CBC, voter turnout still wasn't that good - around 61%.

Sad. I was hoping the advance polls would signal greater voter involvement. I wonder if a lot of Liberals just stayed home.

Edited May 3, 2011 by ToadBrother

ninjandrew · May 3, 2011

The Tories have a majority. They don't have to co-operate any more. While the NDP has transformed the politics of the country, at least for four years, we're back to business as usual.

To what extent? What role does an opposition have against a majority government? Particularly one thats so opposite the CPC.

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

I'm listening to Layton's speech now and all I can say is that fortunately for Layton, most NDP voters in Quebec are asleep.

I don't see how this NDP caucus is going to work and relate in Quebec. The only elected NDP candidate interviewed tonight was Mulcair. The journalists know almost nothing about these people. It is as if they have no connection to Quebec, as if they are ghost MPs.

Even when the ADQ was elected in 2007, journalists interviewed several on the election night.

The upside is the NDP has lots of time. The Tory majority is precisely what the NDP needs. Can you imagine some of those MPs on the government benches?

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

To what extent? What role does an opposition have against a majority government? Particularly one thats so opposite the CPC.

The Opposition opposes, the Official Opposition leads that opposition, has larger budgets to fund the shadow cabinet and the prestige that goes along with that honored and important position.. Parliament will now function as it historically has. The Government will have a large amount of power to pursue its agenda, the Official Opposition will, with a substantial, though not dominant voice, will hold the Government's feet to the fire and try to put itself forward as the next governing party.

Edited May 3, 2011 by ToadBrother

blueblood · May 3, 2011

All in all its been a good night for the tories and ndp. I think both parties won and won big.

The only thing that could spoil tonight is a gem from mr. Canada and I think that's another thing tory and ndp supporters can agree on.

ToadBrother · May 3, 2011

All in all its been a good night for the tories and ndp. I think both parties won and won big.

I'm wondering, when historians look back on this in 30 or 40 years, if they will see tonight as the final act in the drama that began with the PC meltdown in 2003 that lead to the formation of the Bloc and Reform. The Liberals are going to have a tough fight, particularly as I can see Harper, despite the ideological divide with the NDP, somehow finding a way to help maintain the Federalist representation in Quebec. If it happens that way, the Liberals are done.