Final Seat Predictions Contest

[CANADIEN]

I'm going to go with:

158 seats for the CPC

75 seats for the NDP

50 seats for the LPC

25 seats for the bloc

Nittany your 130 seat projection for the NDP looks like pure fantasy. Even EKOS, the polling company with the most generous NDP numbers and least generous CPC numbers, is predicting at worst 133 seats for the Cons and 115 for the dips.

All of the other polling companies are predicting between 143-160 seats for the CPC, with a nasty vote split for the NDP and Liberals. If the results end up around the 150 mark for them, there's a good chance you might have Liberals and Bloc members who narrowly won vs CPC candidates cross the floor to keep Jacko irrelevant and make sure we don't have another election soon.

People from the Bloc crossing the floor to support the Conservatives and block the NDP? Not a chance

[Moonlight Graham]

My projections are doing fairly well so far. I predicted the NDP would get higher than most people here, but i overestimated the Bloc, they're getting killed! I should have gone with my first instincts, originally thought they'd maybe 18-20.

[Hydraboss]

So

First:

Keepitsimple at 162

Second:

Capricorn / Moonbox at 158

Me:

157

Damn, I lost.

(weird how only four of us predicted majority, eh?)

Edited May 3, 2011 by Hydraboss

[PIK]

I'm sure that makes you feel better. I do not think he can pull it off, not even a slim majority. I'm more interested in seeing how badly the Liberals do.

Yes I feel better. But I guess you don't LMFAO.

[PIK]

So

First:

Keepitsimple at 162

Second:

Capricorn / Moonbox at 158

Me:

157

Damn, I lost.

(weird how only four of us predicted majority, eh?)

5 I picked 158 Edited May 3, 2011 by PIK

[blueblood]

So

First:

Keepitsimple at 162

Second:

Capricorn / Moonbox at 158

Me:

157

Damn, I lost.

(weird how only four of us predicted majority, eh?)

Ahem

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index.php?showtopic=18422&st=0

That's 163 for the cowboy. Zero editing and pegged at day 1.

Ill take showcase number 1 drew...

[Molly]

(weird how only four of us predicted majority, eh?)

That's 'cause for many of us it was just plain unthinkable. (Still is.)

Oh well. I called Ralph Goodale and Elizabeth May. That's about all, though.

I'd have put $10 on Nettie Wiebe if I could have found anyone willing to bet against her, but there were no takers.

[Moonlight Graham]

You don't win by just predicting the CPC seats, you have to predict all their seats.

Didn't look at every prediction, but August1991 did very well for all parties:

CPC 150

BQ 8

LPC 41

NDP 108

Ind 1

Edited May 3, 2011 by Moonlight Graham

[nittanylionstorm07]

You don't win by just predicting the CPC seats, you have to predict all their seats.

Didn't look at every prediction, but August1991 did very well for all parties:

Agree, he seems like the winner

[capricorn]

Yes August had a respectable final tally. Predicting a majority on this forum took some amount of courage I think and very few dared document the way they read the tea leaves. The wide consensus was that Harper would win a minority, some even thought he would lose government. Sometimes those making their points used an angry tone, sometimes in a disrespectful tone and in some cases ridiculing the opinions of others. The result of this election has perhaps chastened some of them. In the end it's not so much whether your guy or gal won but that you cared enough about our democracy to cast your vote.

[SuperFreak]

The wide consensus was that Harper would win a minority, some even thought he would lose government.

That could have been the difference. The race in many peoples minds no longer being Harper majority or minority, but Harper or Layton as PM. Some Liberals that jumped to NDP to stop Harper Majority may have re-evaluated when it appeared NDP or CPC.

Or simple that conservative voters went out to polls more then NDP ones.

[Uncle 3 dogs]

0 Liberals in Saskatchewan isn't going to happen either. No matter how fine he has cut it from time-to-time, predicting Goodale to lose is a bad bet.

[ToadBrother]

That could have been the difference. The race in many peoples minds no longer being Harper majority or minority, but Harper or Layton as PM. Some Liberals that jumped to NDP to stop Harper Majority may have re-evaluated when it appeared NDP or CPC.

Or simple that conservative voters went out to polls more then NDP ones.

Oh, I think the NDP got out the vote. If there was any particular collapse it was from the Liberal supporters.

But I do think the advance polls were in the Tories' favor.

[Molly]

I'm shocked by the low turnout overall. Low turnout obviously favours the Tories, but I truly expected it to rise, and rise substantially.

[nittanylionstorm07]

I'm shocked by the low turnout overall. Low turnout obviously favours the Tories, but I truly expected it to rise, and rise substantially.

I have a feeling weather might have something to do with it.

[ToadBrother]

I have a feeling weather might have something to do with it.

I think it's more along the lines of a lot of Liberal voters just not showing up. Couldn't bear to vote for the alternatives so they sat it out.

[RNG]

Serious question - as I have said before, I think most on this forum have their political position fairly firmly set. In my riding the Conservatives called me four times encouraging me to vote, and twice offering to drive me to the poll. Do you think that type of attention impresses Joe(sephen) Undecided?