The 15% elephant in the room

[cybercoma]

Nova Scotia?!

Tell me that's a joke? Let's blame the loss of business in New Brunswick on the Tories here. These problems have been simmering for a long time. Actually, they're at a full rolling-boil, but everyone's ignore that powder-keg.

[Smallc]

Conservatives: We want less spending and balanced budgets!!! ...unless someone else does it!

It's funny isn't it...grrr...liberals and socialists. The Liberals balanced the budget on the backs of the provinces. The Liberals gutted defence.

Okay, so what were they supposed to do then? The Liberals cut everything. Conservatives though, discount that. It's rather perplexing.

[Smallc]

Nova Scotia?!

Tell me that's a joke? Let's blame the loss of business in New Brunswick on the Tories here. These problems have been simmering for a long time. Actually, they're at a full rolling-boil, but everyone's ignore that powder-keg.

Exactly. Population and economic growth near zero isn't really a recipe for success. The lack of solid resource revenue and a vibrant economy outside of Halifax doesn't leave much. The whole of the maritimes is in the exact same situation.

[punked]

Nova Scotia under Dexter.

Taxes go up, businesses go down. There is lots closures in one year.

Biggest lie told today? There were not a lot of closures in one in fact business revenue went up over the first 4 quarters after the HST increase. It should also be known that NS was one of only two provinces to grow their GDP that year.

I AM CALLING YOU A LIAR!!!!!!!

I would also point out over the last year in NS unemployment went down .5% as well.

Please people don't buy into this lie. He just knows that NS HST went up so he made up that business left because his Conservatives masters tell him that is what happens.

There have been some bankruptcies but most of those were from the CUTTING OF GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES not from the HST. What a Conservative wants MORE GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES for failing business.

Edited April 29, 2011 by punked

[wyly]

this from an angus reid survey....Also, more than a third of Canadians (37%) are considering voting strategically in order to reduce the chances of a specific party forming the government, even if it means casting a ballot for a candidate they dislike. More than half of Liberals (53%) and more than two-in-five NDP supporters (43%) are thinking of this option on election day....I'm quite sure those strategic ndp voters will not be casting their vote for conservatives and IMO most of the liberal vote will go to the NDP...I can't see the conservatives getting much of that 15% they've lost ground since the election began I just can't see it suddenly come rushing back...

[Battletoads]

this from an angus reid survey....Also, more than a third of Canadians (37%) are considering voting strategically in order to reduce the chances of a specific party forming the government, even if it means casting a ballot for a candidate they dislike. More than half of Liberals (53%) and more than two-in-five NDP supporters (43%) are thinking of this option on election day....I'm quite sure those strategic ndp voters will not be casting their vote for conservatives and IMO most of the liberal vote will go to the NDP...I can't see the conservatives getting much of that 15% they've lost ground since the election began I just can't see it suddenly come rushing back...

I also seriously doubt that the Hardcore liberal (the 23% that are left) will be voting conservative. The shear fact that they've supported the dolt that is iggy shows how much they dislike Harper.

[Guest Derek L]

this from an angus reid survey....Also, more than a third of Canadians (37%) are considering voting strategically in order to reduce the chances of a specific party forming the government, even if it means casting a ballot for a candidate they dislike. More than half of Liberals (53%) and more than two-in-five NDP supporters (43%) are thinking of this option on election day....I'm quite sure those strategic ndp voters will not be casting their vote for conservatives and IMO most of the liberal vote will go to the NDP...I can't see the conservatives getting much of that 15% they've lost ground since the election began I just can't see it suddenly come rushing back...

Does the poll show what percentage of the 37% are undecided?

I still stand by my assertion that the 15% undecided are A-political and will likely make up their minds after the royal wedding and hockey games are over on Sunday night. I doubt these undecided Canadians strategically vote with the aim of helping a particular party, since they would likely show up in polls as said party supporter as opposed to undecided.

[punked]

Does the poll show what percentage of the 37% are undecided?

I still stand by my assertion that the 15% undecided are A-political and will likely make up their minds after the royal wedding and hockey games are over on Sunday night. I doubt these undecided Canadians strategically vote with the aim of helping a particular party, since they would likely show up in polls as said party supporter as opposed to undecided.

Again pollsters say in the last week of an election most undecideds break evenly with the decideds.

[Vancouver King]

What I find interesting is the large growth in the undecided vote, from roughly 8.5% three days ago to pushing 16% today.

How will this play out Monday? Is this sharp rise being caused by the gains of the NDP? Is there a silent shift happening amongst the well published NDP wave?

And my final question, will the coming endorsements from the media and fears from Baystreet feed this trend all the way into the voter box come Monday?

It never matters what proportion of voters remain undecided since they always eventually vote exactly as the decided do.

Howls of despair from business and the establishment will be forthcoming on the morning of May 3rd if the nation wakes to the reality that the man in the pocket of big oil no longer has the keys to the treasury.

[Guest Derek L]

Again pollsters say in the last week of an election most undecideds break evenly with the decideds.

I didn't see you earlier post Punked, thanks, so I'd be correct in figuring that roughly two thirds of that 15% will likely split between the Tories and NDP? Effectively, bringing both parties levels up around ~40% (CPC) and ~35%(NDP). Now if so, do you have a way to translate that into seat distribution?

[punked]

I didn't see you earlier post Punked, thanks, so I'd be correct in figuring that roughly two thirds of that 15% will likely split between the Tories and NDP? Effectively, bringing both parties levels up around ~40% (CPC) and ~35%(NDP). Now if so, do you have a way to translate that into seat distribution?

If they split evenly the polls wont change at all. So if the polls are CPC 35, NDP 30, Libs 20 that is the way the voters will split.

Seat distribution is impossible this election. There are too many unknowns which is what makes this election like no other. The question really is how much can the NDP get out of their vote. What I mean is if they get a bump in NS but it all comes from Halifax and Sackville say Halifax the NDP vote goes up to 80% and in Sackville the same thing but no where else that vote doesn't matter.

That isn't what is going to happen but it is an example. I'll tell you one thing this the NDP doesn't have the ground game the Liberals stuff is bullshit. I am on the ground I know what the Liberals have it isn't any better then the NDP. Now the Cons have a ground game. I expect the Liberal vote to be lower then predicted.

[cybercoma]

FPTP is a bitch.

[jbg]

I'm just curious. Other than Bob Rae's abortion as premier, have any other NDP provinical government chased jobs away?

Glen Clark in BC?

[wyly]

FPTP is a bitch.

yup, it gives unfair weight to rural voters at the expense of urban dwellers...

[Guest Derek L]

It never matters what proportion of voters remain undecided since they always eventually vote exactly as the decided do.

Howls of despair from business and the establishment will be forthcoming on the morning of May 3rd if the nation wakes to the reality that the man in the pocket of big oil no longer has the keys to the treasury.

The howls of despair from "Business and the establishment" have already begun; it's evident by our dollar dropping. Partisan politics aside, it would not be prudent, not to take into effect what would happen if we "wake-up with Layton as PM" on the 3rd. Personally, I've been selling off oil futures and buying Gold (Wish I had of bought silver a year or so ago!!!)

[punked]

Glen Clark in BC?

I wonder if right wingers know Stats Can exists and they track these things. In 1996 Clarks first year the number of jobs in the province grew 4% in 1997 it held steady at a .1% growth rate. Just so you know.

[Guest Derek L]

If they split evenly the polls wont change at all. So if the polls are CPC 35, NDP 30, Libs 20 that is the way the voters will split.

Seat distribution is impossible this election. There are too many unknowns which is what makes this election like no other. The question really is how much can the NDP get out of their vote. What I mean is if they get a bump in NS but it all comes from Halifax and Sackville say Halifax the NDP vote goes up to 80% and in Sackville the same thing but no where else that vote doesn't matter.

That isn't what is going to happen but it is an example. I'll tell you one thing this the NDP doesn't have the ground game the Liberals stuff is bullshit. I am on the ground I know what the Liberals have it isn't any better then the NDP. Now the Cons have a ground game. I expect the Liberal vote to be lower then predicted.

It really is a muggs game.....Around greater Vancouver, I've seen CPC & NDP signs everywhere, hardly any Liberals and no Greens. Due to the NDP's appeal to student voters, perhaps their ground game might improve with some young, motivated feet. It should be a intresting next couple of days.

[RNG]

It really is a muggs game.....Around greater Vancouver, I've seen CPC & NDP signs everywhere, hardly any Liberals and no Greens. Due to the NDP's appeal to student voters, perhaps their ground game might improve with some young, motivated feet. It should be a intresting next couple of days.

As a theorist and political observer, it is very interesting. As a tax-paying citizen on a fixed income, the concept of the NDP having power scares the shit out of me. Tax and spend gone wild.

[punked]

It really is a muggs game.....Around greater Vancouver, I've seen CPC & NDP signs everywhere, hardly any Liberals and no Greens. Due to the NDP's appeal to student voters, perhaps their ground game might improve with some young, motivated feet. It should be a intresting next couple of days.

The NDP have been organizing their ground game for two years. They will be fine. The Liberals are the ones bleeding support. Believe me I have worked those elections, at the start people are committed by the end they are beaten down. I don't think they have the money or the people at this point, they keep saying ground game in hopes their voters don't bleed anymore. They are giving their people faint hope and something to say when their NDPer friends say "For years you told me you were my only choice well now I am telling you to vote NDP". It is all spin and it is poor. They wont have the ground game they should period.

[cybercoma]

As a theorist and political observer, it is very interesting. As a tax-paying citizen on a fixed income, the concept of the NDP having power scares the shit out of me. Tax and spend gone wild.

Do you prefer spend and cut tax gone wild? I think that's vastly more dangerous.

[Guest Derek L]

As a theorist and political observer, it is very interesting. As a tax-paying citizen on a fixed income, the concept of the NDP having power scares the shit out of me. Tax and spend gone wild.

I can sympathize, a friend bought a little three storey, wood frame apartment complex in Vancouver’s west end during the recession and is now trying desperately to sell for fears of the Vancouver real estate bubble bursting, and now the threat of the NDP winning. He’s scared shitless that he’ll take a bath on it.

It’s ironic really, most of his renters are students at UBC and likely NDP/Green supporters….due to the age of the building, most interest he’s been getting is from potential buyers, pending they can have the lot rezoned commercial.

[Moonlight Graham]

Nobody can predict what the undecided will do. But the rise in undecided seems to have jumped with the rise in the NDP popularity, so yes it could the former Liberal supporters sitting on the fence.

While i think Layton has some charisma and is energetic and has leadership ability, though personally i also think he's a bit of an insincere snake-oil salesman, one thing about the NDP is that it's kind of fun to root for them (especially with the "orange fever" going around and some likely just jumping on the bandwagon), but the question is do you really want them running the country? That's a question people might be reluctant to say "yes" to when they get behind their cardboard voting booth.

On the other hand, there isn't much of a choice for left-wingers who don't want to vote CPC. The NDP seem to now be the choice for many who want to vote strategically to prevent the CPC majority.

It will be so interesting to see if the NDP-mania translates to votes and/or seats election night.

[Battletoads]

I can sympathize, a friend bought a little three storey, wood frame apartment complex in Vancouver’s west end during the recession and is now trying desperately to sell for fears of the Vancouver real estate bubble bursting, and now the threat of the NDP winning. He’s scared shitless that he’ll take a bath on it.

It’s ironic really, most of his renters are students at UBC and likely NDP/Green supporters….due to the age of the building, most interest he’s been getting is from potential buyers, pending they can have the lot rezoned commercial.

Your friend bought into a market that everyone knows is a bubble and will likely be burned for it.

If you risk your money you risk losing your money.

[Battletoads]

Nobody can predict what the undecided will do. But the rise in undecided seems to have jumped with the rise in the NDP popularity, so yes it could the former Liberal supporters sitting on the fence.

While i think Layton has some charisma and is energetic and has leadership ability, though personally i also think he's a bit of an insincere snake-oil salesman, one thing about the NDP is that it's kind of fun to root for them (especially with the "orange fever" going around and some likely just jumping on the bandwagon), but the question is do you really want them running the country? That's a question people might be reluctant to say "yes" to when they get behind their cardboard voting booth.

On the other hand, there isn't much of a choice for left-wingers who don't want to vote CPC. The NDP seem to now be the choice for many who want to vote strategically to prevent the CPC majority.

It will be so interesting to see if the NDP-mania translates to votes and/or seats election night.

Outside of the orange crush drinking NDPers I don't think anyone is seriously thinking the NDP is going to form government.

[mikedavid00]

Is this Liberal supporters, after the last few days of eulogies by some in the media, coming to terms that this might be the end? Are they holding their noses, and deciding which party to call home?

Yes.