Battlegrounds 2011

[Harry Hayfield]

Conservative Battleground

If these ridings go blue, then Stephen Harper has an overall majority

1 Vancouver South

2 Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca

3 Brampton West

4 Welland

5 Edmonton--Strathcona

6 Burnaby--Douglas

7 Brampton--Springdale

8 Sault Ste. Marie

9 New Westminster--Coquitlam

10 Guelph

11 Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe

12 Western Arctic

Liberal Battleground

If all these seats go red, then Michael Ignatieff will become Prime Minister with an overall majority

1 Kitchener--Waterloo

2 Egmont

3 Mississauga--Erindale

4 Oak Ridges--Markham

5 Kitchener Centre

6 Ahuntsic

7 Saint John

8 Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia

9 Brome--Missisquoi

10 Jeanne-Le Ber

11 London West

12 West Nova

13 Gatineau

14 Saanich--Gulf Islands

15 North Vancouver

16 Sudbury

17 Welland

18 Miramichi

19 Nunavut

20 Trinity--Spadina

21 Ottawa--Orléans

22 Vancouver Kingsway

23 Outremont

24 Thunder Bay--Rainy River

25 Pontiac

26 Haldimand--Norfolk

27 Thunder Bay--Superior North

28 Kenora

29 Brant

30 Ottawa West--Nepean

31 Saint-Lambert

32 Alfred-Pellan

33 Thornhill

34 Laval

35 Oakville

36 Glengarry--Prescott--Russell

37 Essex

38 Fredericton

39 Saint Boniface

40 Halton

41 Huron--Bruce

42 South Shore--St. Margaret's

43 Newmarket--Aurora

44 Louis-Hébert

45 Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing

46 Gaspésie--Îles-de-la-Madeleine

47 Hamilton East--Stoney Creek

48 Ottawa Centre

49 Winnipeg South

50 Halifax

51 Burlington

52 Toronto--Danforth

53 Peterborough

54 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River

55 St. Catharines

56 West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country

57 Burnaby--Douglas

58 Fleetwood--Port Kells

59 Churchill

60 Chatham-Kent--Essex

61 Richmond

62 Compton--Stanstead

63 Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale

64 Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier

65 Niagara Falls

66 Vaudreuil-Soulanges

67 Northumberland--Quinte West

68 Nickel Belt

69 Laurentides--Labelle

70 Marc-Aurèle-Fortin

71 Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou

72 Shefford

73 Edmonton Centre

74 Drummond

75 Simcoe North

76 Beauport--Limoilou

77 Saint-Bruno--Saint-Hubert

78 Saint-Maurice--Champlain

If the Liberals make 43 gains or more, they become the largest party in a hung parliament

[Bryan]

Forget St-Boniface, Shelly's going to win that one with a bigger margin than last time.

[Harry Hayfield]

Forget St-Boniface, Shelly's going to win that one with a bigger margin than last time.

These battlegrounds show which seats need to fall for a party to get an overall majority and are ranked by % swing. These are not offical targets, but targets that might be used by the media on Election Night.

[Bryan]

These battlegrounds show which seats need to fall for a party to get an overall majority and are ranked by % swing. These are not offical targets, but targets that might be used by the media on Election Night.

% swing? She got as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined. What's the criteria that makes it within range for a swing?

Or is it just a list of ridings that have previously changed hands, regardless of the circumstances?

[Harry Hayfield]

% swing? She got as many votes as the LPC and NDP candidates combined. What's the criteria that makes it within range for a swing? Or is it just a list of ridings that have previously changed hands, regardless of the circumstances?

I have a list showing the result in every single riding at the 2008 general election. In 2008, the result for Saint Boniface was:

Conservatives 19,440 (46.32%)

Liberal 14,728 (35.09%)

NDP 5,502 (13.11%)

Green 2,104 (5.01%)

Others 195 (0.46%)

Conservative WIN with a majority of 4,712 (11.23%)

If the Liberals secure a national swing of 5.62%, then Saint Boniface would go Liberal and would be the 39th seat to do so on a national uniform swing.

[Tilter]

Not that I'm wishing Iggy any kind of good luck but I have to say --- Good luck with that wish catalogue of fantasy dreams. He has far too stupid a past to be considered as prime minister by anyone but a desperate liberal party whose last offering was another scholar---remember the old adage --- those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

[William Ashley]

Not that I'm wishing Iggy any kind of good luck but I have to say --- Good luck with that wish catalogue of fantasy dreams. He has far too stupid a past to be considered as prime minister by anyone but a desperate liberal party whose last offering was another scholar---remember the old adage --- those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

What the hell are you on about? Your post appears as senile gibberish. His past working for the BBC, Harvard the UN, and as a commons MP? "Makes him unqualified to be PM"

He outclasses Stephen Harper, his left hand would outclass Stephen Harper, his posterior would outclass Stephen Harper, even whilst defacating for the role.

Stephen Harper born also born and raised in Toronto (the same city as Ignatieff) (both were liberal party members in the 70's), sadly is really a second tier sort of person at best. You are also forgetting Mr. Harper was an economist (conman who misses the mark) (but his government has shown he doesn't know diddly about public enconomy - putting Canada in debt more than any other government in Canadian History. There is your economics professor showing how to do it, *gag* *vomit*

Edited April 2, 2011 by William Ashley

[Harry Hayfield]

Not that I'm wishing Iggy any kind of good luck but I have to say --- Good luck with that wish catalogue of fantasy dreams. He has far too stupid a past to be considered as prime minister by anyone but a desperate liberal party whose last offering was another scholar---remember the old adage --- those who can, do. Those who can't, teach.

Do I understand from that, that you believe the Liberals will be very hard pressed to gain any of the seats on their battleground?

[Bryan]

I have a list showing the result in every single riding at the 2008 general election. In 2008, the result for Saint Boniface was:

Conservatives 19,440 (46.32%)

Liberal 14,728 (35.09%)

NDP 5,502 (13.11%)

Green 2,104 (5.01%)

Others 195 (0.46%)

Conservative WIN with a majority of 4,712 (11.23%)

If the Liberals secure a national swing of 5.62%, then Saint Boniface would go Liberal and would be the 39th seat to do so on a national uniform swing.

46.3% is significantly higher than the CPC's national average. That is a lot of breathing space.

Swing meaning a fantasy direct corresponding increase for LPC and decrease for CPC. Not the more likely scenario is possible 2-3 % increase in LPC support at the expense of the NDP and Green.

The polls are clearly showing just that: CPC and LPC are both holding if not increasing, while NDP and GRN support is falling.

[betsy]

What the hell are you on about? Your post appears as senile gibberish. His past working for the BBC, Harvard the UN, and as a commons MP? "Makes him unqualified to be PM"

He outclasses Stephen Harper, his left hand would outclass Stephen Harper, his posterior would outclass Stephen Harper, even whilst defacating for the role.

Stephen Harper born also born and raised in Toronto (the same city as Ignatieff) (both were liberal party members in the 70's), sadly is really a second tier sort of person at best. You are also forgetting Mr. Harper was an economist (conman who misses the mark) (but his government has shown he doesn't know diddly about public enconomy - putting Canada in debt more than any other government in Canadian History. There is your economics professor showing how to do it, *gag* *vomit*

Iggy is a politician. He actually proudly admits to that. And he is.

He lies. A lot. He flip-flops. A lot.

He cannot connect to the regular Joe on the street.

Harper is a politician. But he's delivered most of what he promised, although they may not be to everybody's liking. And best of all, he's been tried and tested by the recent economic disaster.

To boot, you want leadership....what more kind of leadership you want when we all saw what happened (and what is currently happening) to other countries' economy? Yet we remain strong. An inspiration to all nations.

All Opposition parties may poke and try to burst our bubble of pride....but then we all expect that from parties who never thought they'd see Harper score big points on the economy. Anyway, they must be green....and I'm not talking about Elizabeth May.

Who needs the Security Council for posturing recognition! This is much, much better! We've got a global voice.

And true, Harper is an economist....a whole lot better qualified than Ignatieff...most especially in this time of uncertainty. With him and Flaherty, we can sail this through with much hope for complete recovery, and hopefully more.

Edited April 3, 2011 by betsy

[Posc Student]

Harper is a politician. But he's delivered most of what he promised, although they may not be to everybody's liking. And best of all, he's been tried and tested by the recent economic disaster.

Ahahahahahaha Harper is nothing but a big liar!

[RNG]

I am not a Harper fan but am a small c conservative. But I just watched an Iggy TV commercial. Talk about coming across like a used car salesman! I really figured that Harper was sunk, but that commercial makes me thing Conservative majority.

[Wild Bill]

The list correctly shows my riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek as having an NDP MP. I'm going to go on record as saying that this one may be impossible to predict but for the first time the Tories have a chance.

This riding was created a while back by taking a piece of the old Hamilton East riding of Sheila Copps and the riding of Stoney Creek which ran almost to St. Catherines, represented by Tony Valeri. Some might remember that the new boundaries led to a vicious nomination battle between Copps and Valeri, which Valeri won.

The new boundaries really led to a screwy demographic. Hamilton East gave a strong NDP element but Stoney Creek was always intensely Liberal. The Tories were usually always 3rd place, except for anomalies like Mulroney sweeps.

So it has appeared that this riding would be perpetually NDP or Liberal, with candidates always winning by very small margins and so far that has proven to be the case. Wins have been by only a few hundreds of votes.

This time the Tories are running Brad Clark. This is a big change! Brad was a minister in the Harris government, known for being enough of a maverick to buck his own party opposing amalgamation. Since then he has been serving as a powerful local municipal councilor.

Brad has been a VERY popular local politician, drawing support from across the political spectrum. Imagine a Tory that has been a strong and effective environmentalist with issues like local dump sites! He tends to win by strong margins.

You might think that such a guy would be a shoe-in, considering the other candidates have nowhere near the public charisma. The incumbent MP, Wayne Marston, has been like most NDP members. He has built a candidates office where his people are first rate at helping his constituents deal with bureaucratic problems with the federal government. However, he does belong to the NDP which means that he will always be limited in what he can bring home to the table.

The liberal candidate is a first-time woman who is next to totally unknown.

Still, the Tories are starting from a LONG ways back! Last time they lost by about 8,000 votes, in a riding where approximately 48,000 cast their ballots.

So the Tories have the strongest candidate in a riding where historically they have fared the poorest! Perhaps the riding will ride the polls, perhaps not.

This might be an interesting riding to serve as an example for the old debate of whether most people vote for the man or the party.

I'm going to enjoy watching this one!

[Wild Bill]

Ahahahahahaha Harper is nothing but a big liar!

Oh yeah! And he gives oral sex to bears in the woods, when they're not looking! And Ignatieff is a big pooh-pooh head!

Can't you give an argument that has some depth to it? Ad hominem insults are really rather useless for a real debate, you know!

[Bryan]

If the Liberals make 43 gains or more, they become the largest party in a hung parliament

I didn't notice that you were posting from the UK before. Sorry that I was snappy with you, you couldn't be expected to know the people invoved in the campaign.

We don't have hung parliaments here. If the winner has less than a majority, he's still the winner. Our current PM has been governing with a minority of seats for over five years.

[BC_chick]

I am not a Harper fan but am a small c conservative. But I just watched an Iggy TV commercial. Talk about coming across like a used car salesman! I really figured that Harper was sunk, but that commercial makes me thing Conservative majority.

As a Liberal-voter, I'll be the first to admit that the thought of PM Ignatieff is very unappealing. Having said that, the chances of that happening are very slim - the realistic outcome will be between Harper majority and Harper minority/change in Liberal leader.

I would go for the latter over the former any day, so ultimately my vote will be Liberal even though I know Iggy will not win. Of course, if I thought he had a chance, I would spoil my ballot.

I bet many people are in the same boat as me. Given the Liberal's (lack of) appeal in the polls, a vote for Ignatieff is nothing but a vote against Harper. That's something I think that resonates with voters like me who can't believe they have to choose between these two clowns.

[Bonam]

Conservative Battleground

If these ridings go blue, then Stephen Harper has an overall majority

1 Vancouver South

2 Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca

3 Brampton West

4 Welland

5 Edmonton--Strathcona

6 Burnaby--Douglas

7 Brampton--Springdale

8 Sault Ste. Marie

9 New Westminster--Coquitlam

10 Guelph

11 Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe

12 Western Arctic

Sweet, just noticed this. Apparently I get to vote in the most contested riding: Vancouver South.

[Bryan]

As a Liberal-voter, I'll be the first to admit that the thought of PM Ignatieff is very unappealing.

I bet many people are in the same boat as me.

According to the recent Nanos polling, you are in good company even among fellow Liberals.

[BC_chick]

According to the recent Nanos polling, you are in good company even among fellow Liberals.

Are you including the parts in my post which you conveniently cut out where I said I'll be voting against Harper Liberal in the election anyway?

[Tilter]

What the hell are you on about? Your post appears as senile gibberish. His past working for the BBC, Harvard the UN, and as a commons MP? "Makes him unqualified to be PM"

He outclasses Stephen Harper, his left hand would outclass Stephen Harper, his posterior would outclass Stephen Harper, even whilst defacating for the role.

Stephen Harper born also born and raised in Toronto (the same city as Ignatieff) (both were liberal party members in the 70's), sadly is really a second tier sort of person at best. You are also forgetting Mr. Harper was an economist (conman who misses the mark) (but his government has shown he doesn't know diddly about public enconomy - putting Canada in debt more than any other government in Canadian History. There is your economics professor showing how to do it, *gag* *vomit*

well, I have to admit that you are right about one thing "even whilst defacating for the role"

would be Iggy's strong point

[GWiz]

46.3% is significantly higher than the CPC's national average. That is a lot of breathing space.

Swing meaning a fantasy direct corresponding increase for LPC and decrease for CPC. Not the more likely scenario is possible 2-3 % increase in LPC support at the expense of the NDP and Green.

The polls are clearly showing just that: CPC and LPC are both holding if not increasing, while NDP and GRN support is falling.

St. Boniface is a historically strong Liberal riding that's been augmented by a large influx of ethnic visible minorities, not the least of which is Winnipeg's largest Muslim community, so don't be too sure of yourself...

Shelley Glover's disparaging remark about a fellow MP, Liberal incumbant Anita Neville, having "passed her expiry date" isn't going to go over very well in Glover's riding either... Especially not among the high numbers of seniors that vote and are a primary force in old St. Boniface...

Ignatieff's biggest, most supportive, and most boisterous crowd of the campaign was held in St. Boniface last week...

As well her Liberal opponent is a very well liked and campaign seasoned veteran named Raymond Simard that will hit the ground running hard to unseat her...

[Tilter]

Do I understand from that, that you believe the Liberals will be very hard pressed to gain any of the seats on their battleground?

It would appear that the polls say in a general way that "the Liberals will be very hard pressed to gain any of the seats". They may gain seats somewhere but the poll shows that they will lose more elsewhere.

Maybe the Liberals have a new way to print money that will make it more valuable than it now is which is the only way you can spend 8 billion without raising taxes.

[GWiz]

Are you including the parts in my post which you conveniently cut out where I said I'll be voting against Harper Liberal in the election anyway?

In all honesty I felt much like you do about Ignatieff initially...

Since then, here in Winnipeg, I've personally seen Ignatieff in action 3 TIMES (2 x in the by-election that Kevin Lamoureau won from the NDP & the big one last week) and on each occasion I've grown to LIKE Ignatieff more, both as a person AND as a politician, each TIME he spoke...

He's a very, very, passionate speaker that speaks straight from the heart, admits when he's wrong, welcomes criticism, and believes in a strong Canada with great "hope" for Canada's future...

So what's not to like about that?