Federal Election Polls

[waldo]

I doubt most Liberals have a problem with anything Harper is doing aside from a few social issues.

that's right... everything else is just peachy!

[jbg]

I doubt most Liberals have a problem with anything Harper is doing aside from a few social issues.

Not that Harper has been particularly active on social issues. He hasn't been.

[Smallc]

I'm thinking marijuanna, assisted suicide, and prostitution.

[waldo]

I'm thinking marijuanna, assisted suicide, and prostitution.

that? That's it? That's enough to keep (no, make that extend upon) the polling gap?

[cybercoma]

Harper's got this in the bag.

I'm kidding, but in all seriousness, I was surprised to see Justin say he wouldn't cut taxes at all as PM. Even more surprising was that commenters on the news article were supportive of this, saying the deficit needs to be tackled and there shouldn't be more tax cuts. I think ultimately it will sour some people's view and afford the Conservatives the opportunity to make it look like Trudeau is going to hurt people by not cutting taxes. People don't like to hear that usually.

[Derek 2.0]

Interesting context on polling from David Akin's twitter: Federal vote intention

A question for those that might know; on a site like the often linked to threehundredeight, what is the methodology for accounting for the "undecided vote"?

[Derek 2.0]

I'm kidding, but in all seriousness, I was surprised to see Justin say he wouldn't cut taxes at all as PM. Even more surprising was that commenters on the news article were supportive of this, saying the deficit needs to be tackled and there shouldn't be more tax cuts. I think ultimately it will sour some people's view and afford the Conservatives the opportunity to make it look like Trudeau is going to hurt people by not cutting taxes. People don't like to hear that usually.

I have not heard that......was that recently and do you have a link?

[waldo]

I was surprised to see Justin say he wouldn't cut taxes at all as PM.

People don't like to hear that usually.

I've missed that 'exact' quote... the one's I've read/heard are along the lines of "a Liberal government would be focused on building the economy, addressing infrastructure gaps/requirements, etc.; not tax cuts"

of course, Mulcair is easily directly quoted for his promise to repeal certain corporate tax cuts. Corporations don't like to hear that usually.

[Derek 2.0]

From this mornings National Post/CP:

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is signalling the tax cuts promised by the Conservative government could lead to a political showdown ahead of the 2015 federal election.

Trudeau suggested in an interview today with CBC’s French-language service Radio-Canada that a Liberal government would prioritize investment in infrastructure, education, and research over any tax relief.

He says he’s made a promise as leader of the party to build an economy with a strong and growing middle class.

Trudeau made the comments in response to a question on Radio-Canada’s Les coulisses du pouvoir about the cost of those planned investments, and whether it would be politically difficult for him to reverse any cuts given to taxpayers.

I guess we'll await clarification from the LPC as to what their tax policy is.........will it include the reversal of current and proposed tax cuts and/or will it include new taxes? I'm shocked, if so, that the Liberals would make such plans known, this far from an election........sans further comment, we all know how this is going to be framed.........

[jbg]

From this mornings National Post/CP:

I guess we'll await clarification from the LPC as to what their tax policy is.........will it include the reversal of current and proposed tax cuts and/or will it include new taxes? I'm shocked, if so, that the Liberals would make such plans known, this far from an election........sans further comment, we all know how this is going to be framed.........

Justin will have to learn his economics elsewhere. He didn't pick it up in social work school.

[waldo]

I guess we'll await clarification from the LPC as to what their tax policy is.........will it include the reversal of current and proposed tax cuts and/or will it include new taxes?

I'm shocked, if so, that the Liberals would make such plans known, this far from an election........sans further comment, we all know how this is going to be framed.........

you'll await clarification... but you're shocked! Read your own quote... is "prioritize" a weasel word, or a wiggle word?

[Derek 2.0]

you'll await clarification... but you're shocked! Read your own quote... is "prioritize" a weasel word, or a wiggle word?

As I said, I'm shocked if true...........Not sure of your issue with prioritize.........Of course, the public doesn't know what the Liberals priorities actually are, nor how they plan to pay for:

infrastructure, education, and research

So, do you know if the Trudeau Liberals plan to rollback current tax cuts and/or increase taxes to pay for their priorities?

[waldo]

As I said, I'm shocked if true...........Not sure of your issue with prioritize.........Of course, the public doesn't know what the Liberals priorities actually are, nor how they plan to pay for:

So, do you know if the Trudeau Liberals plan to rollback current tax cuts and/or increase taxes to pay for their priorities?

are you saying we can't put any faith in the Harper Conservative projected surplus? Oh my!

[Derek 2.0]

are you saying we can't put any faith in the Harper Conservative projected surplus? Oh my!

What?!?!?!

[cybercoma]

I've missed that 'exact' quote... the one's I've read/heard are along the lines of "a Liberal government would be focused on building the economy, addressing infrastructure gaps/requirements, etc.; not tax cuts"

of course, Mulcair is easily directly quoted for his promise to repeal certain corporate tax cuts. Corporations don't like to hear that usually.

No they don't, which is why Mulcair is so difficult to elect.

[cybercoma]

Justin will have to learn his economics elsewhere. He didn't pick it up in social work school.

By learn economics, you mean cut all the taxes and let people fend for themselves, right?

[Keepitsimple]

Huffington Post's Abacus Survey:

Liberals 32%
Conservatives 30%
NDP 25%

Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/10/20/liberal-poll-ndp-conservatives-2015_n_6017356.html

[waldo]

Huffington Post's Abacus Survey:

Liberals 32%

Conservatives 30%

NDP 25%

that's HuffPo reporting on Abacus... which might suggest the reason for aggregate polling. Abacus reports once a month; this was it's last month's poll:

Liberals 29%

Conservatives 30%

NDP 27%

[Keepitsimple]

that's HuffPo reporting on Abacus... which might suggest the reason for aggregate polling. Abacus reports once a month; this was it's last month's poll:

Liberals 29%

Conservatives 30%

NDP 27%

Nice try Waldo - but not according to the Huffington Post article that accompanied the latest results:

The survey, released by Abacus Data on Monday, shows the Liberals at 32 per cent support among committed voters — a drop of six percentage points from the last Abacus poll in September. Conservatives are at 30 per cent support, unmoved from the last survey, while the NDP boasts 25 per cent support, an increase of two percentage points. The Green Party is also up one three points to eight per cent support.

[waldo]

Nice try Waldo - but not according to the Huffington Post article that accompanied the latest results:

twas a dated poll; not sure why you're chirping... your fav Harper team number stayed fixed from the prior poll... the 6 point shift split as NDP-2, Green-3 & BQ-1

in any case, the point on aggregate polling offering a better overall result over any single poll remains.

[cybercoma]

Abacus has a problem with their methodology. They only poll online and from a pool of self-selected panel members. This poll was conducted Oct. 15-17. If you look at the Abacus results and methodology, you will notice that they say "The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of error for most online surveys." Who are they and what does that even mean?

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association is the professional body for polling firms. Their policy does not allow these firms to give margins of error for polls conducted strictly online because online polls are not a random sample. This means that the results from online polling are not generlizable to the entire population. Why? Because the sample is not a truly random draw from that entire population. In general, the people involved in Abacus's poll need to have access to a computer and the internet, which already limits from their sample those who don't have a computer or access to the internet or those who rarely use it, e.g., the elderly, the poor, people in remote areas with poor access to internet. More importantly, however, is that the sample comes from people who have self-selected into the Abacus panels. That means the people who take the poll are not representative of the people who will vote for elections.

Now this doesn't mean that the poll is wrong. They could accidentally hit on something that's right. However, the results are almost certainly biased towards those who meet the criteria for being polled and that means they are not representative of the entire voting population. Abacus isn't the only polling firm with this issue. Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid also run online polls. The others either do a combination of online/telephone, telephone only, or interactive voice response. All of which are far more reliable and generalizable than online polling.

All of that to say online polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. They use weighting in their sample to give the appearance of representativeness without actually having a representative sample. However, an atypical response that is then given a heavier weight because it's from an underrepresented group within the sample can be misleading. This is why there are no margins of error provided for these online polls. They make up some fake margin of error for a similar size poll that would be random. Weighting the polls can provide more accurate results, but they can also exaggerate outliers, which can make the results way out of whack.

If there is a downward trend, it's doubtful that it's such a sudden spike. EKOS conducted a hybrid telephone/online poll near the same period between Oct. 10-15 (Abacuse was Oct. 15-17). Their results (difference from Abacus poll in brackets) were as follows LPC 38.5 (+6.5), CPC 26.4 (-3.6), NDP 25 (=), BQ 3.1 (-0.9), GRN 5.7 (-2.3). Given that they not only used online respondents, but also called people at random, and had a larger sample and a lower margin of error, I would take EKOS results over Abacus's for this period.

But this doesn't mean that there isn't a downward trend for the Liberals. If there is, it would have to be corroborated by more polls going forward. As it stands now, Abacus is not very reliable and hasn't been for awhile. I would wait and see what subsequent polls have to say. Abacus is an outlier for now.

[waldo]

Abacus has a problem with their methodology.

Abacus is an outlier for now.

my crack research team got 'suckered' by Abacus (Insider) not updating their 'National Poll' section of their website for the last year... it shows a Sept 10 entry... which was presumed to be the most recent to the current Simple just referenced. Along that same line, a search of 308 polling brought up this very same year old Abacus reference (what was the only Abacus reference)... in any case, 308 has just updated the aggregate to include this latest Abacus poll:

[Keepitsimple]

But this doesn't mean that there isn't a downward trend for the Liberals. If there is, it would have to be corroborated by more polls going forward. As it stands now, Abacus is not very reliable and hasn't been for awhile. I would wait and see what subsequent polls have to say. Abacus is an outlier for now.

Agreed.....

[cybercoma]

Forum's latest poll has the Conservatives in a statistical tie with the Liberals (33% CPC, 36% LPC). Just trying to find the details and I will post them.

Edit:
Here's the link to the Forum Research Poll.

LPC: 36%

CPC: 33%
NDP: 18%

GRN: 08%

Other interesting findings from the poll are the number of past voters who will continue to vote for their party:

LPC 83%

CPC 77%

NDP 54%

Not only is that good news for the Liberals, but 31% of those who voted NDP in the last election said they intend on voting Liberal in the upcoming election. From the past Conservative voters, 15% said they would vote Liberal in this election.

Net approve minus disapprove scores for the party leaders are +5 for Trudeau and Mulcair and -19 for Harper.

Edited November 22, 2014 by cybercoma

[Smallc]

It's good news for the Liberals that they're falling in the polls?