Federal Election Polls

[Mr.Canada]

Because all of the polls clearly show people being excited to vote for the Tories?

The Tories are the best at getting their vote out. Most ballots marked at advance polls in the past were done so Tory supporters. We can always learn from history but perhaps this time will prove to be d ifferent. We'll see I suppose.

Have a great night guys and I wish you all the best in your future endeavors.

[wyly]

One thing I'm loving about Tories with respect to the NDP:

"If the NDP wins it'll just be like Bob Rae in Ontario!!!!11"

But if you bring up the successful Saskatchewan/BC/Nova Scotia governments..

"The NDP party federally is nothing like the provincial NDP parties."

yup, I lived under those successful CCF and NDP governments of saskatchewan, stable, fiscally responsible and medicare...i have no fear of social democrats...

[Harry]

It's absolutely incredible to see the NDP at 30% - this really is a Canadian political tsunami

How many seats will Jack Layton get with 30% support?

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27/9% / 24% / 6%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[cybercoma]

NDP stealing support from the left and right according to Graves.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-winning-support-on-the-right-and-left-poll-suggests/article1999681/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=News&utm_content=1999681

“Unlike other parties, most of the current support for the NDP doesn’t come from an NDP voter in 2008. ... The majority of it is new vote,” EKOS pollster Frank Graves said.

[nittanylionstorm07]

It's absolutely incredible to see the NDP at 30% - this really is a Canadian political tsunami

How many seats will Jack Layton get with 30% support?

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5%

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27/9% / 24% / 6%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2% Less than 6% gap with a surging NDP

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

Just a rough estimate, but with numbers like that, we would probably be looking at this:

CPC: 129

NDP: 111

LPC: 52

BQ: 15

GRN: 1

[Harry]

Not too shaby!

Should all the political pundits in Canada quit due to their incompetence?

[Harry]

Jack Layton will be sleeping well tonite.

Angus Reid Regionals

BC

Cons 44%

NDP 30%

Libs 16%

Grn 10%

AB

Cons 60%

NDP 21%

Libs 12%

Grn 6%

MB SK

Cons 50%

NDP 33%

Libs 16%

Grn 1%

ON

Cons 37%

Libs 30%

NDP 27%

Grn 6%

QC

NDP 38%

Bloc 29%

Libs 16%

Cons 14%

Gr 2%

Atl

Cons 35%

NDP 32%

Libs 29%

Grn 4%

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[cybercoma]

Dear Ontario,

Get with it.

Your friends,

The ROC

[nittanylionstorm07]

Angus Reid Regionals

BC

Cons 44

NDP 30

Lib 16

GR 10

AB

Con 60

NDP 21

Lib 12

Gr 6

MB SK

Cons 50

NDP 33

Lib 16

GR 1

ONCon 37

Libs 30

NDP 27

Gr 6

QC

NDP 38

Bloc 29

Libs 16

Cons 14

Gr 2

Atl

Con 35

NDP 32

Lib 29

Gr 4

Wow... Ontario might finally be moving in the last week!

Final results: CPC 34 NDP 34 LPC 18 BQ 5 GR 7

Could you imagine a final result where the CPC and NDP are tied for a plurality? Talk about a crazy situation for Canada, the Libs, BQ, and EMay.

[Evening Star]

I dunno, if the CPC maintains a plurality in most regions, I have to wonder whether the NDP is actually going to get seats in the triple digits.

[Harry]

The Liberals are really collapsing.

5 days left and the NDP are the ones with the momentum.

The NDP polling at 27% in Ontario is awesome!

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

NDP Second in all provinces except Ontario where it is on the Move. In Quebec we are first, if we can change a few of those seconds to firsts we are looking at an NDP government.

[nittanylionstorm07]

NDP Second in all provinces except Ontario where it is on the Move. In Quebec we are first, if we can change a few of those seconds to firsts we are looking at an NDP government.

Sometimes I wish they wouldn't combine provinces, but understand why they do so. I'm willing to bet that the NDP is first in Manitoba and Nova Scotia, and running well in NL.

I still believe that a lot of the Tory support comes in areas where they are already strong.

[Harry]

NDP Second in all provinces except Ontario where it is on the Move. In Quebec we are first, if we can change a few of those seconds to firsts we are looking at an NDP government.

More good news coming from Quebec for the NPD with another Leger poll out later on this week.

Harper's losing it - he's running attack ads against the NDP which are basically just noise now, and pretty soon the Royal Wedding will take over.

God save the Queen!

Edited April 27, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

Just thought I would point out that IF the NDP are truly winning Hull—Aylmer by 20 points they could be winning ANYWHERE in the Province. That riding has been Liberal for the last 100 years except for maybe 4 years.

http://pdf.cyberpresse.ca/ledroit/une.jpg

[wyly]

interesting points I heard on polls tonight...at this point the orange wave is unstoppable only election day can stop it's growth, voters who have chosen the NDP will no longer switch so negative attack adds will do no good...polls are generally 2-3 days behind the trend so take the numbers you see and add a couple of points...if final ndp numbers are mid twenties quite likely a conservative majority NDP opposition...NDP in high twenties-thirty range reduced conservative minority...the polls are accurate in the change they predict the reaction of the parties(lib/con/bloc) contradict their denials...

[Harry]

Still behind the times a bit but nevertheless killing the Harper majority.......

Le NPD bon deuxième

Le NPD est en voie de réduire considérablement les chances du Parti conservateur de former un gouvernement majoritaire et de ravir plusieurs sièges au Bloc québécois au Québec.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/26/01-4393662-le-npd-bon-deuxieme.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_manchettes_231_accueil_POS1

[ToadBrother]

interesting points I heard on polls tonight...at this point the orange wave is unstoppable only election day can stop it's growth, voters who have chosen the NDP will no longer switch so negative attack adds will do no good...polls are generally 2-3 days behind the trend so take the numbers you see and add a couple of points...if final ndp numbers are mid twenties quite likely a conservative majority NDP opposition...NDP in high twenties-thirty range reduced conservative minority...the polls are accurate in the change they predict the reaction of the parties(lib/con/bloc) contradict their denials...

We're close enough now that we can start making some firm predictions. If the trend continues over the next few days, it's almost certain the Liberals are going to be slaughtered, the Tories are going to have a reduced minority, and a very hungry NDP under a dynamic and skilled leader are going to be chomping at the bit to throw their weight around. The Tories may very soon be missing Iggy.

[Battletoads]

We're close enough now that we can start making some firm predictions. If the trend continues over the next few days, it's almost certain the Liberals are going to be slaughtered, the Tories are going to have a reduced minority, and a very hungry NDP under a dynamic and skilled leader are going to be chomping at the bit to throw their weight around. The Tories may very soon be missing Iggy.

With the upcoming Royal wedding set to dominate the air waves I doubt there's going to be much shift over the next few days.

In other words I concur.

[Bonam]

With the upcoming Royal wedding set to dominate the air waves I doubt there's going to be much shift over the next few days.

In other words I concur.

Hmm, are people really planning to pay that much attention to the wedding? I mean, the bride is pretty hot and all but it's just a wedding. The only coverage of the wedding I've seen or plan on seeing is on the Colbert report...

[Battletoads]

Hmm, are people really planning to pay that much attention to the wedding? I mean, the bride is pretty hot and all but it's just a wedding. The only coverage of the wedding I've seen or plan on seeing is on the Colbert report...

I don't give a shit, but its going to be the big ticket item for the net little while.

[Smallc]

The only coverage of the wedding I've seen or plan on seeing is on the Colbert report...

That's all the news and entertainment programs have been talking about for...weeks. It's a big deal.

[Bonam]

That's all the news and entertainment programs have been talking about for...weeks. It's a big deal.

Meh, doesn't seem like much of a big deal to me. I'm no republican or anything, the monarchy is nice and all, but really, why the wedding hysteria? In the end, these are just two normal humans getting married. We are long past the middle ages when we thought of royalty as having a divine right to rule or be somehow above commoners. Royals are celebrities I guess, and celebrity gossip always gets some news, but I just don't see it as that interesting or newsworthy. It's never come up in conversation talking with any of my friends while many other news items over the last weeks have, whether the election, the wars, Japan, Syria, etc.

[Smallc]

Meh, doesn't seem like much of a big deal to me. I'm no republican or anything, the monarchy is nice and all, but really, why the wedding hysteria? In the end, these are just two normal humans getting married.

But they aren't. As you said, they are A ) celebrities, and B ) destined to be the head of state and wife of for up to 16 countries. It's not really a small deal. I have the PVR set, but I don't know how much I'll actually watch.

[Bryan]

And, now we come back to reality...

Nanos Research

April 26, 2011

CPC: 37.8

LPC: 22.9

NDP: 27.8

BQ: 5.8

GRN: 4.7

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110426-BallotE.pdf

NDP leads in Quebec, Conservatives comfortably way ahead in the rest of the country. Jack does have a very real chance of being leader of the opposition, but he's nowhere near the 100 seat level. Conservatives are still on the edge of a majority (MOE: 3.1), and exactly where Nanos had them five days ago. Dippers still have reason to be happy, Tories can stop worrying. Liberals? Yikes! I would not want to be in that war room right now.