Federal Election Polls

Wild Bill · April 21, 2011

Looks like some NDP supporter posters are having a wet dream in this thread over the surge of the NDP in the polls! Somehow, I doubt if Canadians en masse have woken up all with the same thought - that the NDP is the path to Heaven and they are instantly switching their vote to Jack!

That would REALLY be a stretch! It's possible that the NDP might one day be the most popular party but somehow I think it will take more than a few days during this one election to change the minds of that many people.

That being said, the surge in Quebec cannot be denied. Also, there are scattered areas across the rest of the country where the NDP are doing better.

We should not forget that the election is not tomorrow! There's a fair bit of time for people to see and hear what's happening and react to it. Remember how Bob Rae sneaked into power in Ontario. Everyone wanted to force David Petersen into a minority government, for being too arrogant. The problem turned out to be that too many folks all had the same idea and they ended up with Rae! Nobody was more surprised than Bob and he proved woefully unprepared to govern.

In this situation, Canadians now have time to see how strongly the NDP have surged and have to consider, did they want the NDP in order to knock down the Liberals or do they actually want to make them at least the Loyal Opposition?

So we may see a bit of softening in the numbers but still, at least in Quebec the surge has been so strong that it's hard to imagine that the NDP are not going to make some respectable gains. What's more, if they do it by taking Bloc seats that will truly be a paradigm shift in Quebec politics!

Myself, I would welcome an NDP Opposition! I truly think it would be good for Canada. First off, killing off the Liberals would be a blessing. Their brand may be too scarred to recover anyway. We would then have more clear alternatives for governance.

Second, I think a term or two as Official Opposition would do great things for the NDP. They would have the opportunity to finally mature and get out of the 1960's model of ranting against and bleeding from Big Business. They would have to face the possibility of being the government, where they would have to work with Big Business. It would be impossible for them to do that if they continued their policy of demonizing them and spitting in their face!

They would have the opportunity of becoming like the Labour Party of Britain, much more down to earth and practical.

The fact that Quebecers seem to be seeing them as a federalist alternative to the Bloc and the 'old' parties that they can respect is a big bonus!

This election has finally gotten interesting! I'm fully awake now!

punked · April 21, 2011

If you mean provincial NDP parties, I hesitate comparing the federal NDP to provincial NDP.

I don't think Canadians are ready to nationalize the banks and resource-based industries.

They say the samething about provincial parties until they are elected. That shit doesn't play with voters once they start switching I was on the ground in NS in 2009 I heard it all and it made people more firm in their vote for the NDP. If that is the strategy then the other parties are in trouble. Seriously Layton is running the NS campaign of 2009 right now and the vote is breaking. The other parties need to come up with something if they plan on stopping the rise.

Evening Star · April 21, 2011

If you mean provincial NDP parties, I hesitate comparing the federal NDP to provincial NDP.

I don't think Canadians are ready to nationalize the banks and resource-based industries.

When has the federal NDP advocated those things? 40 years ago maybe...?

Harry · April 21, 2011

that's too funnny and dosanjh too

Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry

Harry · April 21, 2011

Did anyone watch power play today nobody was talking majority any more

capricorn · April 21, 2011

When has the federal NDP advocated those things? 40 years ago maybe...?

Look. If the Conservatives can have a hidden agenda, why wouldn't the NDP?

Harry · April 21, 2011

Seat Projection

NDP - 60 seats

They had elected 37 MPs in 2008, so that's an increase of 23 MPs or a 62% increase in the number of MPs for the NDP.

NDP on track to win 60 seats, poll projects
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/ndp-on-track-to-win-60-seats-poll-projects/article1994856/

Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry

capricorn · April 21, 2011

The other parties need to come up with something if they plan on stopping the rise.

You mean the Liberals and the Bloc. The rise of the NDP will not come at the expense of the Conservatives.

punked · April 21, 2011

that's too funnny and dosanjh too

I'm talking to a Liberal now in Dosanjh ridding who is going to vote NDP because she wants to be apart of something and she says she wants to vote for something instead of against it for the first time in her life!

punked · April 21, 2011

You mean the Liberals and the Bloc. The rise of the NDP will not come at the expense of the Conservatives.

It will west of Ontario. My whole Family are Con/NDP swing voters they hate the Liberals.

cybercoma · April 21, 2011

I don't think Canadians are ready to nationalize the banks and resource-based industries.

Was that part of the platform? I must have missed it. :huh:

In fact, if you take the time to look up the New Brunswick Waffle Movement (not the delicious kind), you'll see that this kind of thinking is too far left for the NDP.

Edited April 21, 2011 by cybercoma

capricorn · April 21, 2011

Myself, I would welcome an NDP Opposition! I truly think it would be good for Canada. First off, killing off the Liberals would be a blessing. Their brand may be too scarred to recover anyway. We would then have more clear alternatives for governance.

Second, I think a term or two as Official Opposition would do great things for the NDP. They would have the opportunity to finally mature and get out of the 1960's model of ranting against and bleeding from Big Business. They would have to face the possibility of being the government, where they would have to work with Big Business. It would be impossible for them to do that if they continued their policy of demonizing them and spitting in their face!

They would have the opportunity of becoming like the Labour Party of Britain, much more down to earth and practical.

I do so like this!

cybercoma · April 21, 2011

Some would say that minority governments are for people who like debating, arguing, nit-picking and just bitching far more than actually DOING something!

God forbid we debate about an issue before creating legislation.

capricorn · April 21, 2011

Was that part of the platform? I must have missed it.

Funny how the Conservatives are accused of a hidden agenda even though the agenda feared isn't in the platform but it's heresy to suggest another party may have a hidden agenda.

In fact, if you take the time to look up the New Brunswick Waffle Movement (not the delicious kind), you'll see that this kind of thinking is too far left for the NDP.

Thank you. I feel less fearful now.

capricorn · April 21, 2011

Did anyone watch power play today nobody was talking majority any more

Of course not. Then they'd have to talk about the poll that places the Conservative at 43#, majority territory.

Evening Star · April 22, 2011

Funny how the Conservatives are accused of a hidden agenda even though the agenda feared isn't in the platform but it's heresy to suggest another party may have a hidden agenda.

No one accused you of heresy. We just pointed out that your claims don't seem to be based on anything the NDP has actually said or done in decades, which is how CPC supporters react, or should react, if someone accuses their party of having a hidden agenda.

That said, people's fears about Harper's agenda are often based on actual things that Harper said or wrote within the last decade and a half or so. Layton's had a long career as an academic, businessman, and politician at local and federal levels. His record does not suggest any radical socialist tendencies. (Duceppe's background is probably more socialist, if anything.)

wyly · April 22, 2011

They say that in every province once the NDP start doing good, but instead the opposite happens more people jump on board when they think the NDP might win. That is the truth.

there is that but there is also another factor, the ndp supporter who rarely votes because they believe the NDP can't win so they stay at home, now they have a reason to get out and vote...and that describes my three kids who normally say there's no point in voting, now they can't wait to cast their vote for the ndp as likely will many more young adults...

capricorn · April 22, 2011

No one accused you of heresy. We just pointed out that your claims don't seem to be based on anything the NDP has actually said or done in decades, which is how CPC supporters react, or should react, if someone accuses their party of having a hidden agenda.

I admit that what I said is basically a stereotype of what the NDP stands for. Yet I think it's accurate to state that the NDP is too leftist for the majority of Canadians and they don't want the NDP forming government.

Layton's had a long career as an academic, businessman, and politician at local and federal levels. His record does not suggest any radical socialist tendencies.

I really don't care which rung of socialism the NDP occupies, there's no getting around the fact they are socialist.

punked · April 22, 2011

I really don't care which rung of socialism the NDP occupies, there's no getting around the fact they are socialist.

They aren't anywhere on the socialism ladder. The NDP are a social democratic which firmly believes in capitalism and competition they stated so in the Winnipeg declaration in 1956. Go read it because you are stuck 60 years behind the times.

Mr.Canada · April 22, 2011

NDP numbers often go up before an election but then people switch their vote to the Liberals to prevent vote splitting and a Tory majority. Happens virtually every recent election. Like Cinderella before the ball.

For the record I think that it would better for Parliament in Canada to have Harper as PM and Layton as leader of opposition while the Liberals fall to third place to reorganize and retool their party. Still too much sense of entitlement from the Liberal camp for many Canadians.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Mr.Canada

ToadBrother · April 22, 2011

NDP numbers often go up before an election but then people switch their vote to the Liberals to prevent vote splitting and a Tory majority. Happens virtually every recent election. Like Cinderella before the ball.

True enough. The problem is that the NDP's major area of growth right now is a province that, ten years ago, barely acknowledged its existence. For the Liberals, there may be a tipping point where the NDP start looking like winners, and people, strangely enough, like winners. The other odd thing is that there are a lot of ridings, particularly in my province, BC, who are Tory-NDP swing voters. They'll bizarrely vote one way Provincially and another way Federally, and it's here where we may see an interesting battleground between the Tories and the NDP. For instance, in my riding, Nanaimo-Alberni, the Liberals actually placed fourth behind the Greens, so basically they're not even in the race, but the NDP got a credible near-32% to the Tories' 46%. Still a helluva vote margin, but the NDP are definitely in the race, and you might find these kinds of ridings where the Liberals aren't much of a factor may spell trouble for the Tories.

Mr.Canada · April 22, 2011

I hear ya TB. I want the NDP to do well, I want them as official opposition. The Liberals are a tired party that need reinventing while the NDP appear as a fresh face and much more youthful. They have some good ideas that should be part of any parties budget. I really support their initiative to remove tax from home heating oil, that's a winner.

ToadBrother · April 22, 2011

I hear ya TB. I want the NDP to do well, I want them as official opposition. The Liberals are a tired party that need reinventing while the NDP appear as a fresh face and much more youthful. They have some good ideas that should be part of any parties budget. I really support their initiative to remove tax from home heating oil, that's a winner.

I think the NDP deserve their kick at the can, to be sure. For me, if the NDP can nail a bunch of Bloc ridings, I think this will be an incredible outcome, and one all Federalists, regardless of affiliation, should cheer. The Liberals and Tories haven't been able to do it, and I'm glad someone is at least making the Bloc worry seriously.

capricorn · April 22, 2011

They aren't anywhere on the socialism ladder. The NDP are a social democratic which firmly believes in capitalism and competition they stated so in the Winnipeg declaration in 1956. Go read it because you are stuck 60 years behind the times.

I'm open to being convinced punked. As I said in other threads, I'm not in the least averse to the NDP as the official opposition because it would present a clear alternative for voters. And when I get pissed at the Conservatives, I will need somewhere to turn. And politics being what it is, I know eventually that day will come.