angrypenguin Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 As will EKOS. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
cybercoma Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 EKOS was really far off last election and retooled their weighting for this election. Their results have been all over the map. Inconsistency like that suggests a methodological problem. I wouldn't put too much stock in EKOS this time around. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 EKOS was really far off last election and retooled their weighting for this election. Their results have been all over the map. Inconsistency like that suggests a methodological problem. I wouldn't put too much stock in EKOS this time around. Don't tell him that - EKOS has been the only one coming up with results he likes. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
BC_chick Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Too many respected pollsters are in agreement for all of them to be way off the mark. We are headed,unfortunately, for a Liberal majority/near majority. That article was about the UK elections. I'm sure they had respectable pollsters there too. Anyway, I'm leaning toward a Liberal minority myself, I've just been wary of polls. Especially since BC's election. Quote It's kind of the worst thing that any humans could be doing at this time in human history. Other than that, it's fine." Bill Nye on Alberta Oil Sands
BC_chick Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Not impossible but completely unlikely. A Conservative minority is much more likely than a Liberal majority. You're worrying about the wrong thing. Look at electionprediction.org. It's built bottom up from local people on the ground. That's interesting. Very different outlook than 308. Quote It's kind of the worst thing that any humans could be doing at this time in human history. Other than that, it's fine." Bill Nye on Alberta Oil Sands
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 That's interesting. Very different outlook than 308. Worrying, I call it. Polls underestimated Conservative support in 2011. Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
Exegesisme Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) My Est. of new distribution of seats on poll numbers Oct. 18. Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc% EKOS Poll numbers 32.6 21.0 34.3 5.4 5.4 Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST 114+-15 47+-10 153+-20 2+-1 22+-12 My Est. of new distribution of seats on poll numbers Oct. 17. Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc% EKOS Poll numbers 33.3 21.9 33.7 4.1 4.7 Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST 124+-12 59+-6 145+-15 2+-1 8+-3 Edited October 18, 2015 by Exegesisme Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Nobody is projecting a Liberal majority. G & M projects 170 seats for Liberals. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Exegesisme Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 G & M projects 170 seats for Liberals. Seeing my projection for Liberal, 133--173. Quote
Smallc Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 G & M projects 170 seats for Liberals.i can't find that. Quote
Exegesisme Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 Go to here: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/25069-seat-prediction-time-2015/page-14 i can't find that. Quote
ReeferMadness Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 G & M projects 170 seats for Liberals.Where? Quote Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists. - Noam Chomsky It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it. - Upton Sinclair
cybercoma Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 G & M projects 170 seats for Liberals. Can you link to that for me, please? I must have missed it. Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 (edited) Can you link to that for me, please? I must have missed it. This was taken off the Exegsesme table in Seat Projections thread - post #209. I too just checked and the actual number from G & M is 161. My bad for assuming such an elaborate table from another poster must be accurate. I will self-flagellate later this evening. Edited October 18, 2015 by Vancouver King Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Exegesisme Posted October 18, 2015 Report Posted October 18, 2015 This was taken off the Exegsesme table in Seat Projections - thread #209. I too just checked and the actual number from G & M is 161. My bad for assuming such an elaborate table from another poster must be accurate. I will self-flagellate later this evening. They changed their numbers, from 170 to 145 now. However, if you see their figure of range, liberal still has chance more than 170 seats(about 110--180). My own est. of Liberal seats is 133--173. My thread here: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/25069-seat-prediction-time-2015/page-14 Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Ipsos' final poll calls a Liberal win."Heading into Election Day, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau are likely to receive 38% of the popular vote among decided eligible voters (up 1 point from last week), while Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would receive 31% of the vote (unchanged). Thomas Mulcair and the NDP – who were once the front-runners – would receive 22% of the vote (down 2 points), while Elizabeth May and the Green Party would receive 4% (up 2 points). Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc are set to receive 4% of the vote nationally, down 1 point (17% in Quebec). One in ten (12%) voters would either spoil their ballot/not vote (3%), or remain undecided (9%)." Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Pretty bold words in that press release too."The end of the Harper era is nigh as Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are poised to win the election, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted on behalf of Global News. For the first time in Canadian history a father and a son will have been Prime Minister." Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Final Ekos poll is out http://ipolitics.ca/hcn/the-ekos-poll/36 LPC32 CPC20 NDP6 GRN5 BQEkos' regional and age results still look like crap. I'm not sure how they're getting their numbers.This poll is also way different than the last Ekos poll. His methods are broken this election. Edited October 19, 2015 by cybercoma Quote
Exegesisme Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Final Ekos poll is out http://ipolitics.ca/hcn/the-ekos-poll/ 36 LPC 32 CPC 20 NDP 6 GRN 5 BQ Ekos' regional and age results still look like crap. I'm not sure how they're getting their numbers. This poll is also way different than the last Ekos poll. His methods are broken this election. good news for Liberal. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) Another thing to note is that the vast majority of the recent very large polls (2000+ respondents) have the Liberals over 37%. Smaller polls show them getting less, but those polls have a larger MoE too and 37% is within that range. I think the final popular vote is going to be around 37% LPC, 32% CPC, 20% NDP Edited October 19, 2015 by cybercoma Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Another thing to note is that the vast majority of the recent very large polls (2000+ respondents) have the Liberals over 37%. Smaller polls show them getting less, but those polls have a larger MoE too and 37% is within that range. I think the final popular vote is going to be around 37% LPC, 32% CPC, 20% NDP I'd say that's a reasonable forecast. Seat counts are harder to nail but Libs in the 140 range, Tories around 120 and NDP around 70 seem reasonable as well. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 (edited) I'd say that's a reasonable forecast. Seat counts are harder to nail but Libs in the 140 range, Tories around 120 and NDP around 70 seem reasonable as well. I think what'll happen there is that FPTP will temper the Liberal lead, narrowing the gap between them and the CPC though. We'll see. Keep an eye on the 905. If we see the 905 awash in red, the election is over and they'll be calling it for Trudeau an hour into the night. Edited October 19, 2015 by cybercoma Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Final Ekos poll is out http://ipolitics.ca/hcn/the-ekos-poll/ 36 LPC 32 CPC 20 NDP 6 GRN 5 BQ Ekos' regional and age results still look like crap. I'm not sure how they're getting their numbers. This poll is also way different than the last Ekos poll. His methods are broken this election. 6 Greens? I can see Victoria joining Elizabeth May but the entire Island is a stretch. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
cybercoma Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 6 Greens? I can see Victoria joining Elizabeth May but the entire Island is a stretch. Polling percentages, not seats. Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 19, 2015 Report Posted October 19, 2015 Polling percentages, not seats. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
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