cybercoma Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 I may be revising those seat predictions I made in the other thread a bit sooner than anticipated. Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) I may be revising those seat predictions I made in the other thread a bit sooner than anticipated. I'm telling, if these trends continue, and the Liberals pick up NDP support, that's going to give the Liberals better vote efficiency, and that very much means the Liberals could get into the 130 to 140 seat range by election day. Edited October 5, 2015 by ToadBrother Quote
cybercoma Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 The Liberals need to take Quebec and the thing is the NDP deficit is going to the CPC and BQ, who are both so far behind that it's not looking like it will make much of a difference yet. However, if Quebec decides at the last minute (again) to completely abandon the NDP and throw their backing behind the Liberals then Trudeau will approach a majority. Quote
The_Squid Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 Interesting poll... Still looks good for a non-Conservative government, whether by Liberal minority or coalition.... Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 I expect Liberal support to decrease in the next few days. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 I expect Liberal support to decrease in the next few days. By "expect", don't you mean "hope"? Look at the relative numbers. In general, the number of people not voting Conservative is pretty much the same. The difference is the "Anybody But Harper" vote is coalescing around the Liberals. Do you think these people are going to suddenly switch their vote to the NDP? Whether the Liberals sustain the trajectory is anybody's guess, but one thing is for sure, if the Tories remain static, even if they eek out a nominal plurality, it will not give them the seats they need to survive the Throne Speech, and if the Liberals have a pretty high number of seats in their own turn, and the NDP agree to support them, they'll form a government fairly quickly. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 By "expect", don't you mean "hope"? Look at the relative numbers. In general, the number of people not voting Conservative is pretty much the same. The difference is the "Anybody But Harper" vote is coalescing around the Liberals. Do you think these people are going to suddenly switch their vote to the NDP? Whether the Liberals sustain the trajectory is anybody's guess, but one thing is for sure, if the Tories remain static, even if they eek out a nominal plurality, it will not give them the seats they need to survive the Throne Speech, and if the Liberals have a pretty high number of seats in their own turn, and the NDP agree to support them, they'll form a government fairly quickly. Expect/hope - Potatoes/ potatoes...wait, that didn't translate well into writing I am expecting a Conservative minority followed by an almost immediate defeat. "Almost immediate" Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
The_Squid Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 I expect Liberal support to decrease in the next few days. Great... NDP-led... Liberal-led... either coalition is fine with me. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 Great... NDP-led... Liberal-led... either coalition is fine with me. And that's where you and I disagree. I don't believe they'll be able to form a formal coalition. Their plans are different from each other, in many ways. Can you imagine if they even tried talking about the TPP? How can you govern? Mulcair wants out. Trudeau wants in. Harper wants in. Oh crap. Back to square one. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 Great... NDP-led... Liberal-led... either coalition is fine with me. I think what penguin is hoping for is the vote split that the Tories counted on at the beginning of this election returning. The Tories are still hoping for the fabled 36%=Majority than the Tories in the UK achieved. Quote
PIK Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 And the tories are very close. If harper was so evil , he would not have held on to his 30% base. Quote Toronto, like a roach motel in the middle of a pretty living room.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 And that's where you and I disagree. I don't believe they'll be able to form a formal coalition. Their plans are different from each other, in many ways. And once again, why do you need a formal coalition? You keep ignoring the existence of the notion of confidence and supply, despite that being exactly how the Tories maintained power between January 2009 and May 2011. Can you imagine if they even tried talking about the TPP? How can you govern? Mulcair wants out. Trudeau wants in. Harper wants in. Oh crap. Back to square one. Oh come on. Mulcair's TPP objections are purely for show. Dairy farmers will get their compensation, he'll make a big show of being upset, but they won't make it a confidence issue, and the Liberals and Tories will pass the bill. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 When are we going to see another non Nanos poll? Anyone know? Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 And the tories are very close. If harper was so evil , he would not have held on to his 30% base. Close to what? If he only gets a five or ten seat plurality, he's doomed. The opposition have made it clear they will defeat a Tory minority. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 And once again, why do you need a formal coalition? You keep ignoring the existence of the notion of confidence and supply, despite that being exactly how the Tories maintained power between January 2009 and May 2011. Oh come on. Mulcair's TPP objections are purely for show. Dairy farmers will get their compensation, he'll make a big show of being upset, but they won't make it a confidence issue, and the Liberals and Tories will pass the bill. Trudeau and Mulcair have both vowed to not work with the Tories. You mean they'll renege on their word? <as always?> Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 Trudeau and Mulcair have both vowed to not work with the Tories. You mean they'll renege on their word? <as always?> They've vowed not to work with a Tory government. That's not the same as the three parties arranging for any enabling legislation (how much of the TPP will even require that?) to be passed, with the NDP getting their token protest vote? Come on. You seem like a smart guy, you must understand how politics actually works, as opposed to how the parties like to make us think it works. Quote
The_Squid Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 And that's where you and I disagree. I don't believe they'll be able to form a formal coalition. Their plans are different from each other, in many ways. Can you imagine if they even tried talking about the TPP? How can you govern? Mulcair wants out. Trudeau wants in. Harper wants in. Oh crap. Back to square one. Let's assume a Liberal-led coalition gov't... the TPP is negotiated and a vote is held in Parliament... NDP vote against it... Liberals and Conservatives vote for it.. democracy reigns and big pharma gets their stranglehold on the drug market extended! Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 They've vowed not to work with a Tory government. That's not the same as the three parties arranging for any enabling legislation (how much of the TPP will even require that?) to be passed, with the NDP getting their token protest vote? Come on. You seem like a smart guy, you must understand how politics actually works, as opposed to how the parties like to make us think it works. The difference in my opinion and yours is that I truly think that Justin is arrogant/foolish enough to never work with the Tory government in any scenario. I can see the NDP reneging on their word, but I don't see how Justin would ever support Harper, in any way. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 The difference in my opinion and yours is that I truly think that Justin is arrogant/foolish enough to never work with the Tory government in any scenario. I can see the NDP reneging on their word, but I don't see how Justin would ever support Harper, in any way. Surely by this point you can't still buy into the "Justin is an idiot" line. He's done extremely well, in many ways far better than either Harper or Mulcair. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 Surely by this point you can't still buy into the "Justin is an idiot" line. He's done extremely well, in many ways far better than either Harper or Mulcair. At what point did I say he was an idiot? I used the word "arrogant". Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
The_Squid Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 At what point did I say he was an idiot? I used the word "arrogant". Funny thing is, you don't really know that at all. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 (edited) Funny thing is, you don't really know that at all. No one does, but that's my suspicion. I have also been a student under Trudeau. I remember his arrogance as a teacher very well. E.g. He used to flaunt to the other hot female teacher how he was Trudeau Sr's son. I remember that like it was yesterday. Edited October 5, 2015 by angrypenguin Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
The_Squid Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 No one does, but that's my suspicion. I have also been a student under Trudeau. I remember his arrogance as a teacher very well. And he probably remembers you as a crappy student... Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 And he probably remembers you as a crappy student... So now we're resorting to personal attacks? Wow. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
ToadBrother Posted October 5, 2015 Report Posted October 5, 2015 At what point did I say he was an idiot? I used the word "arrogant". So your real worry is that he's going to be another Stephen Harper. Well, that's justified I suppose. After all, the only thing worse than our friends thinking they're geniuses who need no help is our enemy's believing that. I hope it isn't so, but it seems odd that you would expect more from the potential leader of the next government than you expect from your own. At any rate, the politics of maintaining minorities isn't exactly rocket science. The NDP isn't going to make the TPP a make-or-break issue. They'll find other ways to cost their support for a Liberal minority. But you can be sure they'll make lots of rude noises where it matters the least. And I'm sure the Tories will gain some new insights being back in Opposition. They were an opposition party for such a short period of time, they'll have lots to learn. Quote
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