Federal Election Polls

[Vancouver King]

I don't buy this as the explanation in Ontario, to be honest. It's not as though Ontario was delivering plenty of NDP seats prior to Rae's government. .

How else to explain the likelihood of the NDP electing only 20 seats, give or take, in the province. Today's Abacus poll gives the party only 25% support in the province - similar to other recent soundings.

Ontario federally has always been Tory country. Unfortunately, I see this tradition happening again.

[Evening Star]

How else to explain the likelihood of the NDP electing only 20 seats, give or take, in the province. Today's Abacus poll gives the party only 25% support in the province - similar to other recent soundings.

Ontario federally has always been Tory country. Unfortunately, I see this tradition happening again.

That's definitely false. The Liberals won almost every single seat in Ontario throughout the Chretien/Martin years. Please go look up those results. Even in 2006, the LPC won more ON seats than the Tories. In fact, the Liberals' success during this period was almost completely based on their popularity in Ontario. They also won ON, or were competitive, throughout the PET years.

It is certainly true, though, that the NDP has never had majority support in ON. This was just as true before Rae as it was after him, and this is why I don't see Rae's single term in provincial government 20-25 years ago as the main problem facing the federal NDP in ON. The problem goes deeper than that.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Evening Star

[cybercoma]

That's definitely false. The Liberals won almost every single seat in Ontario throughout the Chretien/Martin years. Please go look up those results. Even in 2006, the LPC won more ON seats than the Tories. In fact, the Liberals' success during this period was almost completely based on their popularity in Ontario. They also won ON, or were competitive, throughout the PET years.

It is certainly true, though, that the NDP has never had majority support in ON. This was just as true before Rae as it was after him, and this is why I don't see Rae's single term in provincial government 20-25 years ago as the main problem facing the federal NDP in ON. The problem goes deeper than that.

The reason for the Liberals being lost in the woods for so long is that they've lost Québec. The Liberals were the only party consistently successful at uniting Ontario and Québec and that's why they governed throughout most of the 20th century. Edited September 14, 2015 by cybercoma

[Vancouver King]

That's definitely false. The Liberals won almost every single seat in Ontario throughout the Chretien/Martin years. Please go look up those results. Even in 2006, the LPC won more ON seats than the Tories. In fact, the Liberals' success during this period was almost completely based on their popularity in Ontario. They also won ON, or were competitive, throughout the PET years.

It is certainly true, though, that the NDP has never had majority support in ON. This was just as true before Rae as it was after him, and this is why I don't see Rae's single term in provincial government 20-25 years ago as the main problem facing the federal NDP in ON. The problem goes deeper than that.

True enough, I should have added, "relative to NDP federal results".

It still begs the question if the Ontario electorate's reluctance to embrace the NDP in 2015 is not related directly to Bob Rae's years, what explains the current reluctance - especially when it's Quebec neighbor now stands as an NDP monolith?

[ToadBrother]

If the Tories only returned with a minority, and depending on its size, wouldn't need a Throne Speech until early 2016 leading up to the next budget.....in such a scenario, I would expect (barring a near majority-minority) a quick CPC leadership race resulting in a new Tory leader facing Parliament, then the electorate or governing until the Liberals and NDP can afford another election.

But the point is really moot, as I fully expect a 170-180 seat Tory majority this Fall.

Harper has committed to a quick return of Parliament after the election, so trying to pull a Joe Clark doesn't seem to be in the cards.

As to your other prediction, whose to say at this point. I think they'll be lucky if the get a strong minority, but we'll both see in five weeks.

[ToadBrother]

The Bloc has nothing to offer. Tories could offer many enticements - cabinet post, committee chair, crown corp CEO, etc. etc.

I'm sorry. You're predicting floor crossing on a level never seen in Canadian history. It looks like a fantasy to me.

[Derek 2.0]

Harper has committed to a quick return of Parliament after the election, so trying to pull a Joe Clark doesn't seem to be in the cards.

Define quick though, its rather subjective........If a ~150 seat CPC minority, under new leadership, opened the first session of the 42nd Parliament in early 2016, would voters care?

As to your other prediction, whose to say at this point. I think they'll be lucky if the get a strong minority, but we'll both see in five weeks.

And we will see, but I'd be very surprised if my prediction is wrong though.

[Canada_First]

I'm sorry. You're predicting floor crossing on a level never seen in Canadian history. It looks like a fantasy to me.

I would have to agree. It seems highly unlikely that a mass floor crossing would take place. If anything it would be the Tory crossing to the governing Liberals IMO.

[ToadBrother]

Define quick though, its rather subjective........If a ~150 seat CPC minority, under new leadership, opened the first session of the 42nd Parliament in early 2016, would voters care?

And we will see, but I'd be very surprised if my prediction is wrong though.

I define quick as within weeks of an election, which is the tradition in most Westminster parliaments. Joe Clark's five month delay is unusual, and to my mind, should never have been permitted by the Governor General. A government is supposed to seek the confidence of Parliament at the earliest opportunity.

And I think you will be surprised. I don't see a path to a majority for anyone, but we have five weeks for someone to break loose. Frankly, I think the voters just want change, and I don't think they are going to be persuaded.

[Canada_First]

I define quick as within weeks of an election, which is the tradition in most Westminster parliaments. Joe Clark's five month delay is unusual, and to my mind, should never have been permitted by the Governor General. A government is supposed to seek the confidence of Parliament at the earliest opportunity.

And I think you will be surprised. I don't see a path to a majority for anyone, but we have five weeks for someone to break loose. Frankly, I think the voters just want change, and I don't think they are going to be persuaded.

I agree. It's been almost 10 years of Tory in power. After any government in power for that long people want change. I'm sure that even after NDP in power for 10 years we'd have a long list of things to mutually complain about.

It's going to be a real toss up. For sure. It's anyone's game right now. One serious blunder in anyone's campaign could be the difference.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Canada_First

[Derek 2.0]

I define quick as within weeks of an election, which is the tradition in most Westminster parliaments. Joe Clark's five month delay is unusual, and to my mind, should never have been permitted by the Governor General. A government is supposed to seek the confidence of Parliament at the earliest opportunity.

The 39th election and the first session of the 39th Parliament span nearly 2 1/2 months.......I think holding the first session of the 42nd Parliament during the traditional winter break is unrealistic.........

And I think you will be surprised. I don't see a path to a majority for anyone, but we have five weeks for someone to break loose. Frankly, I think the voters just want change, and I don't think they are going to be persuaded.

I'm certain ardent NDP/LPC/Green supporters want change, unlike Tory supporters, the result will depend on the undecided voters in Ontario and BC.......I don't think many will be persuaded to vote for the sake of risky change.

[ToadBrother]

The 39th election and the first session of the 39th Parliament span nearly 2 1/2 months.......I think holding the first session of the 42nd Parliament during the traditional winter break is unrealistic.........

I'm certain ardent NDP/LPC/Green supporters want change, unlike Tory supporters, the result will depend on the undecided voters in Ontario and BC.......I don't think many will be persuaded to vote for the sake of risky change.

Your problem being that many may not see at as a risk. The chief disadvantage of partisanship is buying your own rhetoric.

[Derek 2.0]

Your problem being that many may not see at as a risk. The chief disadvantage of partisanship is buying your own rhetoric.

As is assuming partisan fueled rhetoric for change, for the sake of it, to be correct......The CPC have delivered a surplus, the NDP promise billions in new spending well keeping a balanced budget (some how) and the Liberals will spend us billions into the red to address a recession we're not in......

[ToadBrother]

As is assuming partisan fueled rhetoric for change, for the sake of it, to be correct......The CPC have delivered a surplus, the NDP promise billions in new spending well keeping a balanced budget (some how) and the Liberals will spend us billions into the red to address a recession we're not in......

We've survived deficits before. I don't think anyone is talking a deficit so vast as to create a crisis.

I simply don't buy into this "This is the most important election ever, don't risk it!" rhetoric. It isn't the most important election ever, the storm clouds that hang over us aren't that big. I'm not going to be scared into voting for any party, nor do I think the world will end if any of the three win.

Every election, I get a bunch of partisans from all camps trying to assert that it's their way or the Apocalypse. It's rubbish.

[Derek 2.0]

We've survived deficits before. I don't think anyone is talking a deficit so vast as to create a crisis.

I simply don't buy into this "This is the most important election ever, don't risk it!" rhetoric. It isn't the most important election ever, the storm clouds that hang over us aren't that big. I'm not going to be scared into voting for any party, nor do I think the world will end if any of the three win.

Every election, I get a bunch of partisans from all camps trying to assert that it's their way or the Apocalypse. It's rubbish.

More to my point on the assumption of change......

[Canada_First]

I'd like some change too. But I don't want to change to Trudeau or Mulcair. They're scary.

[Evening Star]

the NDP promise billions in new spending well keeping a balanced budget (some how)

I was a little puzzled until I saw an explanation: they have only promised that their FIRST budget will be balanced.

[ToadBrother]

I'd like some change too. But I don't want to change to Trudeau or Mulcair. They're scary.

Only to small children. As I said, the whole "fear" style of campaigning really doesn't bother me at all. We're not talking about Lenin or Hitler as party leaders here. This isn't a choice between the KKK and the Mafia. I find nothing at all frightening about any of the leaders, and won't buy into the fear rhetoric at all.

[ToadBrother]

More to my point on the assumption of change......

Why is change bad? For instance, I certainly could do with some change in how the PMO functions; specifically that it be heavily scaled back.

Will I get that kind of change if I vote for a Tory?

[Derek 2.0]

I was a little puzzled until I saw an explanation: they have only promised that their FIRST budget will be balanced.

Have they suggested that future budgets won't be balanced?

[Derek 2.0]

Why is change bad? For instance, I certainly could do with some change in how the PMO functions; specifically that it be heavily scaled back.

Will I get that kind of change if I vote for a Tory?

I don't think that is the correct question to ask........more so why change as promised by the Liberals or NDP? Like for instance, increases to EI premiums or CPP......why would an average middle income earner wish for change, change as in the amount they have clawed off their paychecks being increased to give to someone else....

[Evening Star]

Have they suggested that future budgets won't be balanced?

I don't think they've commented on that, as far as I know.

[Evening Star]

It still begs the question if the Ontario electorate's reluctance to embrace the NDP in 2015 is not related directly to Bob Rae's years, what explains the current reluctance - especially when it's Quebec neighbor now stands as an NDP monolith?

I dunno, exactly, but my point is that it is nothing new, not even new in the last 25 years. Ontarians are mostly looking at the Tories and Liberals outside of some blue-collar areas (mostly), like always. It is a more striking question to me why SK doesn't vote NDP anymore or why QC does or even why the Tories are more popular in ON than they were previously.

If I had to speculate about ON and the current NDP: it might have something to do with ON being a centre for business and finance, it might have to do with people's attachment to the older parties and the Trudeau name, it might have to do with seeing the NDP as soft on QC sovereigntists/nationalism (which I think scares Ontarians more than Westerners BECAUSE they're neighbours), it could just be that the NDP platform has not been exceptionally exciting so far.

[Derek 2.0]

I don't think they've commented on that, as far as I know.

Right, as such, I would assume their insistence on their first budget being balanced goes along with the theme that we don't currently have a balanced budget.....

[Vancouver King]

If I had to speculate about ON and the current NDP: it might have something to do with ON being a centre for business and finance, it might have to do with people's attachment to the older parties and the Trudeau name, it might have to do with seeing the NDP as soft on QC sovereigntists/nationalism (which I think scares Ontarians more than Westerners BECAUSE they're neighbours), it could just be that the NDP platform has not been exceptionally exciting so far.

Here's a fresh perspective on NDP woes in Ontario.

British Columbia is set to return more NDP MPs to Ottawa than Ontario. If this likelihood is taken as evidence of NDP popularity on the West Coast that would be wrong. They have a less-than-truly-comfortable 35% support level out here.