Federal Election Polls

[Derek 2.0]

I think you're wrong on both scores. I think a number of Red Tory-types (Progressive Conservatives if you will) will, perhaps with reservations, likely vote Liberal. I also think that there are a number of Reform types, of the old school, who deeply dislike Harper who will either sit on their hands this election, or vote NDP simply because they hate the Liberals so very much.

And I think you're partially wrong, though I agree their is a concern inside the party of Red Tories shifting to the Liberals/NDP, those angry Reformers from the far right are more likely to vote Libertarian than stay home or vote NDP.

[cybercoma]

And I think you're partially wrong, though I agree their is a concern inside the party of Red Tories shifting to the Liberals/NDP, those angry Reformers from the far right are more likely to vote Libertarian than stay home or vote NDP.

I still think a storm's coming on the political right. It looks to me like there's plans to form a new party again. We'll see what happens when Harper steps down. He did well to keep it together for as long as he did. That's probably going to be looked back upon as his greatest achievement.

[ToadBrother]

And I think you're partially wrong, though I agree their is a concern inside the party of Red Tories shifting to the Liberals/NDP, those angry Reformers from the far right are more likely to vote Libertarian than stay home or vote NDP.

The actual Libertarian Party has, so far as I count it, 85 candidates. Those old Reform dinosaurs may not have that as an option.

[Derek 2.0]

I still think a storm's coming on the political right. It looks to me like there's plans to form a new party again. We'll see what happens when Harper steps down. He did well to keep it together for as long as he did. That's probably going to be looked back upon as his greatest achievement.

No need for a new party, social conservatives have CHP and far right economic types, as mentioned, the Libertarians........as to the validity of said storm, I doubt it....at the end of the day, aside from some ardent kooks in both camps, most understand there is no path to power in supporting fringe movements.

I honestly don't know where the the concern (or hope) of a major fracturing of the Party is coming from, and think, for the most part, PM Harper only needed to herd cats in his first mandate, with his task being in the years that followed, made easier by the natural decline of social conservatives, as societies views on morality have changed.

[ToadBrother]

I still think a storm's coming on the political right. It looks to me like there's plans to form a new party again. We'll see what happens when Harper steps down. He did well to keep it together for as long as he did. That's probably going to be looked back upon as his greatest achievement.

If we do get a new electoral system, then I can see it. The current CPC would remain largely centrist, and would remain competitive with the other parties over who the Red Tory voters would support in any given election. Then you would have a new Reform-style party that would advance more socially conservative issues. The two parties would form some sort of coalition should the CPC gain the plurality in a ranked voting or MMR election, much as you see the Christian Democrats in Germany create semi-stable coalitions with other right-of-center parties.

If we stick with a FPTP system, then I think the party will stay largely united. The old Reform dinosaurs are a dying breed, so they won't remain a significant force within the CPC for too much longer. In fact, I'd argue they're probably a fading force even now.

[Derek 2.0]

The actual Libertarian Party has, so far as I count it, 85 candidates. Those old Reform dinosaurs may not have that as an option.

I think that is a testament to the fact that those "Reform dinosaurs" have no real desire to change parties......political supply side economics and such..

[Canada_First]

I think that is a testament to the fact that those "Reform dinosaurs" have no real desire to change parties......political supply side economics and such..

The reform party is too left wing for me. I'd like a real right wing party in Canada. One that will put the citizens first. Canada for real Canadians ONLY. Strong military. Withdraw from NATO and the UN. Independent and strong. Not weak like we are now. Letting foreigners take over the country. It's disgusting. Makes me sick whenever I drive through a downtown area and see the scum. Barely human. Homeless scum. Drug addiction scum. Whore scum. Dirty clothes. Scrounging for thier next fix. Looking to rape and victimize through their glowing eyes. I can barely look at them without becoming violently ill.

[Derek 2.0]

The reform party is too left wing for me. I'd like a real right wing party in Canada. One that will put the citizens first. Canada for real Canadians ONLY. Strong military. Withdraw from NATO and the UN. Independent and strong. Not weak like we are now. Letting foreigners take over the country. It's disgusting. Makes me sick whenever I drive through a downtown area and see the scum. Barely human. Homeless scum. Drug addiction scum. Whore scum. Dirty clothes. Scrounging for thier next fix. Looking to rape and victimize through their glowing eyes. I can barely look at them without becoming violently ill.

Interesting ideas, perhaps you could outline your manifesto in a new thread, helping to keep this thread on subjects encompassing real life.

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Do you know past member Mr Canada? Maybe you two, with the aide of past member Merlin and current member Socialist, could seed a new political movement.

[Canada_First]

Do you know past member Mr Canada? Maybe you two, with the aide of past member Merlin and current member Socialist, could seed a new political movement.

No I don't know him. I saw socialist in chat last night. Other than that I don't know that poster.

[Vancouver King]

New Abacus Data for 9/14.

The desire for change in Ottawa continues to grow, according to Abacus. Down 18 points since December, only 32% of Canadians say we're headed in the right direction. The desire for change in Ottawa is the highest it has been with 76% either say it's "definitely time for change" (61%) or that they're "inclined to want change" (15%).

There is nothing new or remarkable in this poll. Since early August we have known about 75% of respondents prefer a change of gov't, so as a stat it more represents Abacus catching up to it's competitors.

Underlying these early last half numbers are clear problems for Harper's opponents. Today's budget report spells bad news for Liberals as it questions the need for the massive deficits strategy proposed by Trudeau. Past economic issues from former NDP provincial administrations continue to hold back Mulcair in the all important Ontario/BC battlegrounds.

Ekos and Nanos both point to upticks for Harper on the refugee issue. As difficult as it is to accept, a sizeable minority - beyond the Tory core - appears opposed to substantial increases in refugee numbers. Now that the economy is again a strong suit for Tories, watch Harper for a strong debate performance this week.

Add in a still-vast attack ad war chest, rabid core supporters and the entry of the Wizard of Oz and I am going to update my prediction - it looks, at a minimum, like a healthy Conservative minority.

[ToadBrother]

Add in a still-vast attack ad war chest, rabid core supporters and the entry of the Wizard of Oz and I am going to update my prediction - it looks, at a minimum, like a healthy Conservative minority.

And how long will a "healthy Conservative minority" last?

[Vancouver King]

And how long will a "healthy Conservative minority" last?

My guess would be 2 years.

[ToadBrother]

My guess would be 2 years.

So you don't see the opposition defeating the Tories on the Throne Speech?

[Vancouver King]

I see Harper with 155 - 165 seats. He can entice (bribe?) sufficient opposition MPs to join Tories formally, or on an issue by issue basis to hold out for about 2 years. It will be David Emerson on an industrial scale.

It won't be pretty.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Canada_First]

I see Harper with 155 - 165 seats. He can entice (bribe?) sufficient opposition MPs to join Tories formally, or on an issue by issue basis to hold out for about 2 years. It won't be pretty.

This has to be his last election. He has to step down as Tory leader so they can choose a new leader who will have time to let the public get to know him or her.

[ToadBrother]

I see Harper with 155 - 165 seats. He can entice (bribe?) sufficient opposition MPs to join Tories formally, or on an issue by issue basis to hold out for about 2 years. It will be David Emerson on an industrial scale.

It won't be pretty.

You're talking about large scale mutinies in the NDP and Liberal caucuses.

I'm going to be blunt. I find both your predictions, but particularly the mutiny or floor crossing predictions, complete fantasy.

[Vancouver King]

This has to be his last election. He has to step down as Tory leader so they can choose a new leader who will have time to let the public get to know him or her.

Don't bet the farm on it. Harper's ego knows no boundaries - why is he running this time around if not an attempt to set a record for longest PM stewardship?

[Canada_First]

Don't bet the farm on it. Harper's ego knows no boundaries - why is he running this time around if not an attempt to set a record for longest PM stewardship?

I think he should've stepped down about a year and a half ago.

[ToadBrother]

I think he should've stepped down about a year and a half ago.

Yes he should have, but that's what happens when leaders are around too long, particularly autocratic leaders. They confuse their own ambitions with those of the party, and the party as a whole commits the error of assuming the leader has their best interests at heart.

[Vancouver King]

You're talking about large scale mutinies in the NDP and Liberal caucuses.

I'm going to be blunt. I find both your predictions, but particularly the mutiny or floor crossing predictions, complete fantasy.

If I have missed on the prediction it's likely due to underestimating what is coming - a possible slim Tory majority.

It doesn't stretch the imagination to predict 3-4 NDP Quebec MPs would cross the floor to become gov't side members. With a near majority on Oct. 19th Harper won't need a "massive scale mutiny".

[ToadBrother]

If I have missed on the prediction it's likely due to underestimating what is coming - a possible slim Tory majority.

It doesn't stretch the imagination to predict 3-4 NDP Quebec MPs would cross the floor to become gov't side members. With a near majority on Oct. 19th Harper won't need a "massive scale mutiny".

It does stretch the imagination. If anything, the soft nationalists would cross the floor to the Bloc.

But there is going to be no major floor crossing, and I really doubt that the Tories will even achieve a large minority. But if they do, it will be all the more reason for the Liberals and NDP to coordinate to, if not outright topple the government, then to basically impose policy on them. Why would any sane MP in an opposition party who could potentially be a government backbencher at any time go "Well, to hell with my party, I'm joining the Tories"? It doesn't make any sense, and sounds to me like the kind of scenario people that have had too much coffee too late at night dream up.

[Vancouver King]

It does stretch the imagination. If anything, the soft nationalists would cross the floor to the Bloc.

The Bloc has nothing to offer. Tories could offer many enticements - cabinet post, committee chair, crown corp CEO, etc. etc.

[Evening Star]

Past economic issues from former NDP provincial administrations continue to hold back Mulcair in the all important Ontario/BC battlegrounds.

I don't buy this as the explanation in Ontario, to be honest. It's not as though Ontario was delivering plenty of NDP seats prior to Rae's government. (They won 13/95 ON seats in 1984 and 10/99 ON seats in 1988. Their 2011 number of 22/106 was much better, if anything.) They really suffered for a while in the 90s and early 00s but I don't believe that Rae is still hurting them, especially years after he publicly renounced the NDP. The simple fact is that the NDP has never had majority support in ON, federally. They are working to build this but I think they will shoot themselves in the foot if they keep assuming that they need to shake the ghost of Bob Rae.

Voters under 25 were not even born when Rae was in power. And, as much as people who are not me dislike him, it's not even like he had one signature detested policy comparable to the NEP (unless you count the Social Contract/Rae Days, which was essentially an austerity measure, a cut to public service wages that saved $2B: it pissed off unions but should be celebrated by fiscal conservatives; either way, it's not something that had a disastrous long-term effect). Moreover, he was good to Northern Ontario, which has remained largely NDP territory.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Evening Star

[Derek 2.0]

Add in a still-vast attack ad war chest, rabid core supporters and the entry of the Wizard of Oz and I am going to update my prediction - it looks, at a minimum, like a healthy Conservative minority.

A war chest, that if they didn't win a majority (as I expect), can fund another election cycle next year if needed, when both the Liberals and NDP are paying off this one.

[Derek 2.0]

So you don't see the opposition defeating the Tories on the Throne Speech?

If the Tories only returned with a minority, and depending on its size, wouldn't need a Throne Speech until early 2016 leading up to the next budget.....in such a scenario, I would expect (barring a near majority-minority) a quick CPC leadership race resulting in a new Tory leader facing Parliament, then the electorate or governing until the Liberals and NDP can afford another election.

But the point is really moot, as I fully expect a 170-180 seat Tory majority this Fall.