The end of the empire of Japan

March 29, 2011

If you were realist your position would have changed as the information available changed. You have repeated a single note all along.

Actually, his claims have been reinforced as information available has changed/been updated.

bush_cheney2004 · March 29, 2011

Actually, his claims have been reinforced as information available has changed/been updated.

Not yet...Japan will need 20,000 - 50,000 confirmed dead and another Chernobyl or two.

March 29, 2011

Not yet...Japan will need 20,000 - 50,000 confirmed dead and another Chernobyl or two.

As I recall, he said 10,000+ dead, which sadly has come to pass, and basically that the nuclear situation was going to be a crisis, and it is.

GostHacked · March 29, 2011

Not yet...Japan will need 20,000 - 50,000 confirmed dead and another Chernobyl or two.

Does the death toll need to be that high before people understand the full scale of this problem? Radiation sickness and related deaths will take a few years to show the severity of the nuclear tragedy. The marine life in the area will be affected for years, decades.

Japanese officials are now admitting partial meltdowns in 3 of the 6 reactors. Which many of us had already suspected. Still want to downplay it? The only real solution is the Chernobyl option. Encase it in concrete. And lots of it.

bush_cheney2004 · March 29, 2011

As I recall, he said 10,000+ dead, which sadly has come to pass, and basically that the nuclear situation was going to be a crisis, and it is.

Go back and check the posts....10,000...20,000...50,000...it's pretty easy to be "right" if one plasters enough guesses on the wall. Others have been satisfied to learn as more information is forthcoming from the scene/area. I'm not sure why it is so important to have "guessed right" about what is obviously a serious humanitarian and radiological disaster, but maybe there is a prize?

GostHacked · March 29, 2011

Go back and check the posts....10,000...20,000...50,000...it's pretty easy to be "right" if one plasters enough guesses on the wall. Others have been satisfied to learn as more information is forthcoming from the scene/area. I'm not sure why it is so important to have "guessed right" about what is obviously a serious humanitarian and radiological disaster, but maybe there is a prize?

My initial statement was over 10,000 dead. I made no other statements aside from that. I made a guess yes, a realistic one. And IF there are really 3 partial meltdowns, (along with exposed spent fuel rods) then it's already reached and surpassed Chernobyl. I'd rather go with worst case scenario then scale back once information is available. Better to be safe than sorry. And now people are saying they are sorry for not telling people how serious the situation is.

Trust me, I'd rather be wrong.

But eventually you are going to reply to me directly. I've noticed you don't do that anymore. Why is that?

EDIT .. I did say it was 20-50 at the start, that was my initial assumption. So I'll admit my statement about 10,000 initially was wrong.

Edited March 29, 2011 by GostHacked

March 29, 2011

Go back and check the posts....10,000...20,000...50,000...it's pretty easy to be "right" if one plasters enough guesses on the wall. Others have been satisfied to learn as more information is forthcoming from the scene/area. I'm not sure why it is so important to have "guessed right" about what is obviously a serious humanitarian and radiological disaster, but maybe there is a prize?

I admittedly have not kept current on the posts in this thread, and therefore I recall it as I put forth; but I think the "importance" of having "guessed right" has to do with accusations claiming otherwise. It is a very serious humanitarian and radiological disaster, which ultimately is what matters. My heart has been with Japan since day one and I think the Japanese are deserving of commendation for the way everything has been handled.

eyeball · March 29, 2011

I guess what it boils down to is being realistic is being an alarmist.

What it really boils down to is that expectations of hope for honesty and transparency from most state or corporate officials will be met by howls of derision and hoots of laughter from the usual suspects, ie most right-wingers.

TimG · March 30, 2011

Actually, his claims have been reinforced as information available has changed/been updated

The situation is no where near what he was saying in the beginning. Here is a quote:

So what happens when you can't cool the plant down enough? Sure they shut down, does not make the situation any less than Chernobyl.

The situation is nothing like a Chernobyl and GostHacked and the other hysterics have be shown wrong on this. The situation is Japan is serious but with no nuclear reaction going on we are dealing with a messy clean up that could take years.

BTW: Total deaths from the nuclear incident: 0. And it is likely to stay that way.

Edited March 30, 2011 by TimG

TimG · March 30, 2011

What it really boils down to is that expectations of hope for honesty and transparency from most state or corporate officials will be met by howls of derision and hoots of laughter from the usual suspects, ie most right-wingers.

Of course, you have no evidence that anything was 'hidden'. You simply assume that because it fits the narrative you have been pushing for a long time.

That is biggest problem with this entire issue. Too many people are obsessed with turning it something that supports their pre-existing narratives.

Post To The Left · March 30, 2011

Exactly. Gosthacked's faith in his favorite news organizations like FOX NEWS is probably the basis of his fear-mongering. FOX NEWS by the way claimed there was a nuclear reactor in Tokyo ... that turned out to be live music club.

We won't even go into his claims that the Japanese nuclear reactor crisis has surpassed Chernobyl or that the crisis level had reached 6 out of the scale of 7, all of which turned out to be false.

As for his claims on fallout just who is talking about? The twenty kilometre exclusion zone (Even Chernobyl only has a similar sized zone) saw residents evacuated. Who are these people that are going to get "Radiation sickness and related deaths" does he know of some sort of hippy revival or rave that was held next to the plant?

Two reactors are functioning normally. Reactors one to four have been hooked up to power and have their control rooms running. They've switched to fresh water to cool the reactors. Working in hour shifts the workers have been safely working toward hooking up the cooling pumps. Two workers were injured but they've set up a state of the art radiation hospital near the nuclear plant. Any exposure can be quickly treated and long term affects negated.

Gosthacked is basically Nancy Grace

Edited March 30, 2011 by Post To The Left

Bonam · March 30, 2011

People can rebuild from an earthquake, people can rebuild from a tsunami, not so easy with radiation.

What on Earth are you talking about? 10,000+ people died due to the Earthquake and Tsunami. None of those people can rebuild now, they are dead. And countless more people will have their entire lives torn apart due to the deaths of their close relatives and loved ones.

As for the nuclear reactor, 0 people died. How do you rebuild? Implement a quarantine zone in the affected area and rebuild at a new location. So long as you're alive, you can rebuild. Again, for "the 2nd worst nuclear disaster in history", the fact that no one died speaks to the praiseworthy safety of nuclear power. How many people died in the 2nd worst disaster in history related to the coal industry, or the oil industry? A lot more than 0, I'll tell you that much.

Now, a few of the workers who have been heroically handling the situation probably have been exposed to high levels of radiation. Some of them will possibly be affected by radiation sickness, cancer, or other illnesses that can be attributed to the radiation exposure during this incident. They are people who took it upon themselves to take these risks to try to prevent a worse crisis and further harm to others. Just like the firefighters who rushed in on 911 - their deaths are a tribute to their courage and dedication, they are not an indication that tall buildings are a bad idea.

Post To The Left · March 30, 2011

2nd worst disaster in history related to the coal industry, or the oil industry? A lot more than 0, I'll tell you that much.

I agree with your sentiment but the Japanese nuclear reactor crisis isn't the second worst disaster in nuclear history. There have been other, worse nuclear disasters like:

-Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union is likely the second biggest nuclear accident when a steam explosion released 70–80 tons of highly radioactive material into the environment.

-The British Windscale fire is probably the 3rd worst disaster. It released extreme amounts of radionuclides.

-The Goiânia accident in Brazil which killed four people and irradiated 245 other people.

-There were other real melt downs in Switzerland, and of course the Three Mile Island incident. There was even anuclear incident in Canada, although this one wasn't as bad as Japan.

Other things like the accidental destruction of several Soviet and American nuclear subs might be higher up on the scale of nuclear disasters.

Edited March 30, 2011 by Post To The Left

Post To The Left · March 30, 2011

Just like the firefighters who rushed in on 911 - their deaths are a tribute to their courage and dedication, they are not an indication that tall buildings are a bad idea.

The thousands of firefighters who responded to 911 have more to worry about regarding cancerthan the Japanese population.

eyeball · March 30, 2011

Of course, you have no evidence that anything was 'hidden'. You simply assume that because it fits the narrative you have been pushing for a long time.

No I assume that because there is no means to ensure transparency and accountability. Public trust melted down long long before Fukushima did. A nearly universal unwillingness to suspend disbelief is the background against which Fukushima melted down, not the other way around.

That is biggest problem with this entire issue. Too many people are obsessed with turning it something that supports their pre-existing narratives.

Not that many if the sheer breadth and depth of public incredulity is anything to go by. The narrative that; everything is okay, be calm, your trust-worthy hard-working government and corporation have everything under control, doesn't seem to be resonating.

Feel free to keep making excuses and mischaracterizing billions of human beings as being stupid instead of recognizing and dealing with the fact they're simply incredulous.

TimG · March 30, 2011

No I assume that because there is no means to ensure transparency and accountability.

Thanks for confirming you are basically making crap up to suit your prejudices. Edited March 30, 2011 by TimG

Bonam · March 30, 2011

I agree with your sentiment but the Japanese nuclear reactor crisis isn't the second worst disaster in nuclear history. There have been other, worse nuclear disasters like:

-Kyshtym disaster in the Soviet Union is likely the second biggest nuclear accident when a steam explosion released 70–80 tons of highly radioactive material into the environment.

-The British Windscale fire is probably the 3rd worst disaster. It released extreme amounts of radionuclides.

-The Goiânia accident in Brazil which killed four people and irradiated 245 other people.

-There were other real melt downs in Switzerland, and of course the Three Mile Island incident. There was even anuclear incident in Canada, although this one wasn't as bad as Japan.

Other things like the accidental destruction of several Soviet and American nuclear subs might be higher up on the scale of nuclear disasters.

Sorry, I was thinking of incidents related to nuclear power, not other uses of nuclear technology. The 1st one you mentioned was a facility for production of radioactive materials for weapons. The Brazil incident had to do with a radiotherapy radiation source being mishandled. As for the British incident, it sounds like no one was killed, and "A 2010 study of workers directly involved in the cleanup—and thus expected to have seen the highest exposure rates—found no significant long term health effects from their involvement". Sounds to me like nuclear power still has a pretty clean record.

Anyway, my reference to "2nd worst nuclear incident" was based on how it is being portrayed in the media. It is routinely compared to Chernobyl (which was obviously a much worse disaster) and to Three Mile Island (where nothing really happened).

WIP · March 30, 2011

I still don't see any evidence that this will be any more than problem for the immediate area. The only thing that has changed in he last week or so is the resolution will not be as quick as I hoped.

And yes. I still think you really want to see a disaster occur because it would support your pre-existing beliefs about nuclear power. There is simply no other explaination for your hysterical posts on the topic. You will be dissappointed when this issue whimpers away.

You are an idiot, and beyond contempt for accusing others who disagree with you of wanting to see death and destruction. If I was an asshole like you, I could redirect that thought right back at you for your carefree disregard of the inherent risks involved with the nuclear industry, and denying climate change out of a purely political agenda!

In the real world:

Japan may have lost race to save nuclear reactor

The radioactive core in a reactor at the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant appears to have melted through the bottom of its containment vessel and on to a concrete floor, experts say, raising fears of a major release of radiation at the site.

The warning follows an analysis by a leading US expert of radiation levels at the plant. Readings from reactor two at the site have been made public by the Japanese authorities and Tepco, the utility that operates it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/japan-lost-race-save-nuclear-reactor

And more than 2 weeks after the disaster, they are finally going to test the area around the plant for plutonium:

Radiation Surges at Reactor as Tests for Plutonium Ordered

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Radiation in water at Japan’s earthquake-damaged nuclear plant reached potentially lethal levels, hampering work to cool reactors.

As the worst atomic accident since Chernobyl entered its third week, the government said soil near the Fukushima plant would be tested for plutonium contamination. The radioactive metal was used in one of the reactors and its presence outside the plant would suggest the fuel rods were damaged.

Water in the Fukushima Dai-Ichi No. 2 reactor’s turbine building was measured at more than 1,000 millisieverts per hour, Japan’s nuclear safety agency said today. That’s higher than the dose that would cause vomiting, hair loss and diarrhoea, according to the World Nuclear Association. The radiation is 10 million times the plant’s normal level, broadcaster NHK said.

“They’re finding quite high levels of radiation fields, which is impeding their progress dealing with the situation,” said Richard Wakeford, an expert in radiation epidemiology at the U.K.’s Dalton Nuclear Institute in Manchester. At reactor 2, “you’d have a lot of difficulty putting anyone in there.”

Efforts to gain control over the damaged plant have been hampered by radiation leaks, forcing repair work to be suspended and engineers to rotate shifts.

Japanese officials say they do not know how radioactive water is escaping from the reactors, or from the spent fuel ponds.

According to Dr. David Lochbaum from the Union of Concerned Scientists, this is partly because the main reactor control rooms are not operational. The guages and computers are not working. Under the heading:

How Much Does Japan Know About the Status of its Reactors? Lochbaum shows that the recent picture of the control room at Unit 2 shows that:

A - Computer monitors are blank.

B - Clock out of service.

C - Annunciators seem to be de-energized: no alarms reported despite many plant parameters off-normal.

D - Equipment status indicator lights not available.

E - Instrument gauges all downscale (not reading parameter values).

and Lochbaum asks whether TEPCO executives and spokesmen even have the information available to determine how radioactive water is escaping from the reactors or the spent fuel ponds!

bush_cheney2004 · March 30, 2011

......Anyway, my reference to "2nd worst nuclear incident" was based on how it is being portrayed in the media. It is routinely compared to Chernobyl (which was obviously a much worse disaster) and to Three Mile Island (where nothing really happened).

Right...the total assessment and impact of this incident won't be made/known for years. I lived about 50 miles from the TMI incident in 1979, and apart from the voluntary 5 mile evacuation zone, authorities were much more concerned about a possible panic by millions of people in the region based on fear mongering and ignorance. The resulting chaos would have cost far more lives.

TimG · March 30, 2011

You are an idiot, and beyond contempt for accusing others who disagree with you of wanting to see death and destruction.

I did not accuse everyone. Just you because you seem to show so much glee. I can't help it if that is the impression I got. I apologize for offending you.

TEPCO executives and spokesmen even have the information available to determine how radioactive water is escaping from the reactors or the spent fuel ponds

What? Three weeks into the incident and you just figured out that TEPCO is flying blind? This has been the problem as soon as power was knocked out. They are trying to restore power to the control systems in order to get information on what is going on.

BTW - don't bother posting links to western newspapers. they don't run a story unless they can play up the disaster angle. If you want information reported with full context and minimal spin try the Japan Times:

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/

Edited March 30, 2011 by TimG

eyeball · March 30, 2011

Thanks for confirming you are basically making crap up to suit your prejudices.

So by what mechanism is transparency and accountability being achieved in Fukushima? Why hasn't it been able to counter an almost universal level of public disbelief?

TimG · March 30, 2011

So by what mechanism is transparency and accountability being achieved in Fukushima? Why hasn't it been able to counter an almost universal level of public disbelief?

People want answers that TEPCO simply does not have. No system will be able to bridge that gap - especially with a media that is addicted to blowing stuff out of proportion. However, most people can understand that after some reflection and do not sit around spinning conspiracy theories like you. Edited March 30, 2011 by TimG

Post To The Left · March 30, 2011

So by what mechanism is transparency and accountability being achieved in Fukushima? Why hasn't it been able to counter an almost universal level of public disbelief?

There is an universal level of public disbelief in the west due to the hyperbole reporting of Western Media. Almost everyday there is a headline story about how the Fukushima reactors are blowing up "in hours (Mar 11)", "in 24hrs", "48hrs (Mar 15)". These deadlines pass so the newspapers make up a new deadline or some sort of inflamatory news story about how it's worse than Chernobyl.

TEPCO has kept the situation under control when EVERYTHING has gone wrong at the plant. The question isn't why there is a universal level of public disbelief of TEPCO rather why there is universal level of public disbelief of the western media.

Edited March 30, 2011 by Post To The Left

GostHacked · March 30, 2011

What on Earth are you talking about? 10,000+ people died due to the Earthquake and Tsunami. None of those people can rebuild now, they are dead. And countless more people will have their entire lives torn apart due to the deaths of their close relatives and loved ones.

Yes you are quite right, those people who are dead cannot rebuild. But we've seen it before where survivors have rebuilt after large quakes and after tsunamis. Radiological disasters are harder to rebuild from. You can clear debris from quakes and tsunamis, much easier than radioactive contamination. That is all I was trying to say there.

As for the nuclear reactor, 0 people died. How do you rebuild? Implement a quarantine zone in the affected area and rebuild at a new location. So long as you're alive, you can rebuild. Again, for "the 2nd worst nuclear disaster in history", the fact that no one died speaks to the praiseworthy safety of nuclear power. How many people died in the 2nd worst disaster in history related to the coal industry, or the oil industry? A lot more than 0, I'll tell you that much.

It might be zero now, but radiation takes time to manifest, and it can in horrible ways. There is a documentary called The Children of Chernobyl, and I've seen some photo essays on the subject. It can and will affect offspring. That was also a result from the two atomic bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

Now, a few of the workers who have been heroically handling the situation probably have been exposed to high levels of radiation. Some of them will possibly be affected by radiation sickness, cancer, or other illnesses that can be attributed to the radiation exposure during this incident. They are people who took it upon themselves to take these risks to try to prevent a worse crisis and further harm to others. Just like the firefighters who rushed in on 911 - their deaths are a tribute to their courage and dedication, they are not an indication that tall buildings are a bad idea.

It's more that probable. They have been exposed to high levels of radiation. When reactor 3 blew, it damaged the containment pools and the water leaked, exposing the spent fuel rods stored at the top of the reactor tower. Take a look at some of the pictures of #3, it's nothing but twisted metal and is not even recognizable as a reactor tower. The hydrogen explosion threw stuff a couple thousand feet into the air. I suspected the reactor core was damaged, and now we have admissions from the Japanese officials that there have been 3 partial meltdowns at 3 of the 6 reactors at the site. I've posted those videos a couple pages back. Reactor 1 blew pretty good, and 3 was much bigger.