Food Crisis 2011? 14 Disturbing Facts That Make You Wonder

[WIP]

From The American Dream:

Will 2011 be the year that we point to as the beginning of the great global food crisis? Food prices are soaring, supplies are very tight and already we have seen some very intense food protests flare up around the globe this year.

When people don't have enough to eat, they tend to become very desperate

, and unfortunately it looks like the global food situation is not going to improve much any time soon.

That last point needs to be underlined, since the great overlooked backstory to what's going on in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen etc. is that rising food prices and food shortages in the Middle East have created the public mood that's shaken the majority out of their complacency.

.....What is going to happen if weather patterns get even worse or if we have a string of really bad natural disasters?

What is going to happen if we experience a really bad global economic collapse?

Right now these are just the "birth pains", but if things get much worse we could be looking at a horrific food shortage that will rock the globe.

The following are 14 facts that make you wonder if the coming global food shortage has already begun....

#1 According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. corn reserves will drop to a 15 year low by the end of 2011.

#2 The United Nations says that the global price of food hit another new all-time high in the month of January.

#3 The price of corn has doubled in the past six months.

#4 The price of wheat has roughly doubled since the middle of 2010.

#5 According to Forbes, the price of soybeans is up about 50% since last June.

#6 The United Nations is projecting that the global price of food will increase by another 30 percent by the end of 2011.

#7 Due to all of the unprecedented flooding, the winter wheat crop in Australia has been absolutely devastated.

#8 This winter Brazil was hit by some of the worst flooding that nation has ever seen. This has substantially hampered food production in that country.

#9 Russia, one of the largest wheat producers on the entire globe, is still feeling the effects of last summer's scorching temperatures. In fact, Russia is actually importing wheat this winter to sustain its cattle herds.

#10 China is busy preparing for a "severe, long-lasting drought" that is projected to have a huge impact on several provinces. In fact, Chinese state media says that the eastern province of Shandong is dealing with the worst drought it has seen in 200 years. The provinces being affected by this severe drought grow approximately two-thirds of the wheat in China.

#11 It appears that Chinese imports of corn will be about 9 times larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture originally projected them to be for 2011.

#12 Approximately 1 billion people around the world go to bed hungry each night.

#13 Somewhere in the world someone starves to death every 3.6 seconds, and 75 percent of those are children under the age of five.

#14 As food has become increasingly scarce around the world, many companies have started using whatever kinds of "fillers" that they can think of in their "food" products. For example, Raw Story is reporting that some companies in China have actually been mass producing "fake rice" that is made partly of plastic.

And, how will starvation and food riots in the Third World affect us? Well think about it for a second...some of those countries that are overpopulated and currently straining to produce enough food, have nuclear weapons - India and Pakistan for example. If their dispute over water rights in Kashmir goes nuclear....that's bad for everyone no matter where you live.

Food stockpiles all over the world are disturbingly low at this point. If a major global famine broke out not even the United States would be able to last for long. The U.S. government is supposed to be keeping a lot of food stockpiled in the event of an emergency, but that is just not happening.

Right now a desperate scramble for food is beginning. Quite a few nations that used to be huge food exporters are now importing a lot of their food. Prices for staples such as wheat, corn and soybeans are absolutely soaring, and the UN is projecting that they will continue to rise rapidly throughout 2011.

Unless something dramatically changes, the global food situation is only going to get tighter and tighter and tighter as this decade rolls along.

So who is going to decide who gets fed and who doesn't?

Edited February 16, 2011 by WIP

[Shwa]

I don't want to downplay people going hungry and if you are wondering who will decide who feeds them, well, you are. However, the problem with information like this is that it appears to be hyperbole and that seriously hampers the effort to get some global standard of living because the haves simply find this sort of stuff hard to believe, especially when you predict doom and gloom for the US (and Canada).

The following are 14 facts that make you wonder if the coming global food shortage has already begun....

#1 According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. corn reserves will drop to a 15 year low by the end of 2011.

But it's still a surplus right? There is so much corn produced in the US that it would take a small tweak here and there to produce great surpluses. However, potatoes are a better food.

#2 The United Nations says that the global price of food hit another new all-time high in the month of January.

That stat alone, is practically meaningless.

#3 The price of corn has doubled in the past six months.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production - the US produces 40%. Time to rake in some profits. That may sound heartless, but when other governments see fit to spend their money on other things rather than food, well, there are decisions to be made.

#4 The price of wheat has roughly doubled since the middle of 2010.

#5 According to Forbes, the price of soybeans is up about 50% since last June.

And who is hoarding? Would that have something to do with it?

#6 The United Nations is projecting that the global price of food will increase by another 30 percent by the end of 2011.

I have no idea what this means in a practical sense.

#7 Due to all of the unprecedented flooding, the winter wheat crop in Australia has been absolutely devastated.

So they are going to have to increase their imports and deal with it, just like any other country that has experienced production shortfalls.

#8 This winter Brazil was hit by some of the worst flooding that nation has ever seen. This has substantially hampered food production in that country.

See #7.

#9 Russia, one of the largest wheat producers on the entire globe, is still feeling the effects of last summer's scorching temperatures. In fact, Russia is actually importing wheat this winter to sustain its cattle herds.

Russia is dealing with it. All this tells me is that Russians are smart. But there is no hint of panic to the degree that the people will overthrow the government. If I understand things correctly, Russia is also fairly wealthy. They have oil to trade.

#10 China is busy preparing for a "severe, long-lasting drought" that is projected to have a huge impact on several provinces. In fact, Chinese state media says that the eastern province of Shandong is dealing with the worst drought it has seen in 200 years. The provinces being affected by this severe drought grow approximately two-thirds of the wheat in China.

China is preparing, smart people. That is what governments should be doing.

#11 It appears that Chinese imports of corn will be about 9 times larger than the U.S. Department of Agriculture originally projected them to be for 2011.

Ka-ching! Do you think this might have something to do with the rising cost of corn?

#12 Approximately 1 billion people around the world go to bed hungry each night.

#13 Somewhere in the world someone starves to death every 3.6 seconds, and 75 percent of those are children under the age of five.

This is the problem. However, until people are willing to rise up and do something about it and demand change to the priorities of their governments, any relief efforts will be spot efforts. There should be a minimum standard of living in a global economy, but we are neither here nor there. Now, the problem with citing a statistic like this is that it does not account for population explosions where they cannot be afforded.

#14 As food has become increasingly scarce around the world, many companies have started using whatever kinds of "fillers" that they can think of in their "food" products. For example, Raw Story is reporting that some companies in China have actually been mass producing "fake rice" that is made partly of plastic.

Is there a problem with letting the Chinese people deal with this themselves? They dealt with the melamine in their infant formula.

And, how will starvation and food riots in the Third World affect us? Well think about it for a second...some of those countries that are overpopulated and currently straining to produce enough food, have nuclear weapons - India and Pakistan for example. If their dispute over water rights in Kashmir goes nuclear....that's bad for everyone no matter where you live.

Fear mongering. Nothing more.

Food stockpiles all over the world are disturbingly low at this point. If a major global famine broke out not even the United States would be able to last for long. The U.S. government is supposed to be keeping a lot of food stockpiled in the event of an emergency, but that is just not happening.

Major global famine? Like getting hit with an asteroid? Yeah, yeah, disaster, disaster, gnashing of teeth, rapture. Fear mongering that does NOTHING to improve the situation.

Right now a desperate scramble for food is beginning. Quite a few nations that used to be huge food exporters are now importing a lot of their food. Prices for staples such as wheat, corn and soybeans are absolutely soaring, and the UN is projecting that they will continue to rise rapidly throughout 2011.

They SHOULD be importing their food, that's what they are supposed to be doing. At least they have the wealth to be able to do that. But they would be better off trying to grow potatoes.

Unless something dramatically changes, the global food situation is only going to get tighter and tighter and tighter as this decade rolls along.

Maybe. But I have yet to see where we lack enough food to feed the world and that is the problem. And it isn't lost on me every week when I put the garbage out. There are tweaks and efficiencies that need to be gained, but unless a country's priorities are shifted to feed their populace and efforts make to control the population where required, I am not inclined to feel guilty or feaful.

So who is going to decide who gets fed and who doesn't?

You do.

Edited February 16, 2011 by Shwa

[bush_cheney2004]

So who is going to decide who gets fed and who doesn't?

Gee...I don't know...ask the Americans...again.

[Michael Hardner]

The big picture on hunger is that it gets generally better all the time, and the reality is that global trade and investment are a major catalyst towards that. Now China is engaging and investing in Africa. Although there will always be caution around this sort of new colonialism, the fact is that the economic model as it is will always work better than charity.

[Jonsa]

did you ever wonder how food prices are determined?

You could just look at the FAO and take it all at face value.

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/

Prices are up cause of natural disasters and political instability. Sure that must account for it.

For instance some sources claim that storms in Canada will reduce output by 17% when in fact, its more like 1.7% and that's off a record high.

Are you aware of a company called Cargill? One of the largest companies in the world and its private.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargill

I have a very very cynical view of this since commodity markets are run by the same type of greedy assholes that gave us the global financial crisis of the last couple of years.

[GostHacked]

WIP

Check out Gerald Celente (linked in my sig) He does Trends Research Journal, and has been talking about this current crisis before it became a crisis. And he said much of what is in your post.

"When people lose everything , they lose it." ..... so true.

[WIP]

I don't want to downplay people going hungry and if you are wondering who will decide who feeds them, well, you are. However, the problem with information like this is that it appears to be hyperbole and that seriously hampers the effort to get some global standard of living because the haves simply find this sort of stuff hard to believe, especially when you predict doom and gloom for the US (and Canada).

Where do find hyperbole? Take a look at what's been happening the last few years....food prices soaring, global food stocks declining, and weather becoming increasing erratic. There's no guarantee that the good times will keep rolling here based on what's happening in other places in the world.

But it's still a surplus right? There is so much corn produced in the US that it would take a small tweak here and there to produce great surpluses. However, potatoes are a better food.

Maybe...if they stopped diverting corn for producing ethanol. What would happen to that surplus if the U.S. got hit with a heatwave similar to the one that hit Russia this last summer? Russia's grain harvest dropped 40% and led to a halt on exports....what would happen if U.S. grain harvests dropped 40% in one year?

That stat alone, is practically meaningless.

Then add it to the others! The facts are: population is increasing, while world food production is dropping because of depleting topsoil and declining water tables. And, add the wildcard of climate change -- which will bring us more floods, more droughts, and wreak havoc on large scale agriculture that depends on stable, repeated weather patterns.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maize#Production - the US produces 40%. Time to rake in some profits. That may sound heartless, but when other governments see fit to spend their money on other things rather than food, well, there are decisions to be made.

Sure, the U.S. will need profits to pay for the extra military and security costs that are going to be associated with food shortages in the Third World.

And who is hoarding? Would that have something to do with it?

Sure it would! Check out Goldman Sachs for one -- that is buying up wheat, rice and other commodity futures to keep the prices from falling. But, they wouldn't be willing to lose money cornering the futures markets if they believed there was any possibility that present food crises were about to change. The Wall Street vultures are circling for good reasons!

I have no idea what this means in a practical sense.

Well, one thing it means is inflation, from rising food prices. It also means more uprisings and instability in countries that have been straining under the effects of rising food prices for the last couple of years.

So they are going to have to increase their imports and deal with it, just like any other country that has experienced production shortfalls.

Australia is normally a major food exporter; but being one of the few developed nations that is partially within the Tropics, Australians are privy to the most dramatic and devastating effects of climate change so far....which have primarily affected countries in the Global South. Prolonged droughts have wiped out wheat and livestock, and the floods in Eastern Australia are taking care of what's left of Australian agriculture! Australia has the money to import food, just like Russia, China, and a few other countries that have been hard hit recently; but what does that do for global food prices?

And, these sorts of things cannot be written off as temporary shortfalls anymore, thanks to global warming. The variability in weather is going to be with us permanently, and some of the changes, such as the prolonged droughts in Australia, China and Brazil, are telling us that there is no "normal" to return to anymore.

[WIP]

The big picture on hunger is that it gets generally better all the time,

How so? Because the number of people going hungry is increasing! Forty years ago, half a billion people were near starvation; that increased to almost a billion in the 80's, dropped to about 850 million in the late 90's, but it's been going up ever since, and as of 2009, is over 1.02 billion.

and the reality is that global trade and investment are a major catalyst towards that. Now China is engaging and investing in Africa. Although there will always be caution around this sort of new colonialism, the fact is that the economic model as it is will always work better than charity.

They're buying up land...just as many multinational corporations are also in a big land-grab...and neither China's nor the agribusiness giants' intentions are completely clear. But it's not likely that they're buying land in the interest of what's good for the locals!

[bush_cheney2004]

....And, these sorts of things cannot be written off as temporary shortfalls anymore, thanks to global warming. The variability in weather is going to be with us permanently, and some of the changes, such as the prolonged droughts in Australia, China and Brazil, are telling us that there is no "normal" to return to anymore.

There never was a global normal...not for climate, and certainly not for the agribusiness, which actually increased production using methods that you now find to be unacceptable. Let the starving and obese people fight it out.

[Michael Hardner]

How so? Because the number of people going hungry is increasing! Forty years ago, half a billion people were near starvation; that increased to almost a billion in the 80's, dropped to about 850 million in the late 90's, but it's been going up ever since, and as of 2009, is over 1.02 billion.

As a percentage, there is less starvation over time. As countries improve economically, food becomes less of a problem.

They're buying up land...just as many multinational corporations are also in a big land-grab...and neither China's nor the agribusiness giants' intentions are completely clear. But it's not likely that they're buying land in the interest of what's good for the locals!

Their intentions are completely clear: they want to become wealthier. That is done through a process of investment and increased economic activity.

Edited February 17, 2011 by Michael Hardner

[WIP]

There never was a global normal...not for climate, and certainly not for the agribusiness, which actually increased production using methods that you now find to be unacceptable. Let the starving and obese people fight it out.

Yes, there did used to be climate norms that formed the basis of modern agriculture...especially in the Tropics. For example, all of the major rice-growing countries have depended on a regular cycle between a dry season and a monsoon season, with the occasional bad year with little rain; but it has been assumed up until recent years that a drought year was an aberation, and next year would be better. Now, we are seeing droughts last several years, interspersed with massive floods that bring the rains down in torrents and destroy crops, and drain away before most of the water can be absorbed into the water table.

The new normal is that every year (especially in the Global South) is a crap shoot -- no one knows what to expect, and along with eroding topsoils and declining water tables, that's why agricultural production in the Third World is in decline....and unfortunately at a time when their populations are still increasing.

It appears that the scientists are confirming what the World's major insurance companies have been trying to tell us in recent years: the World is experiencing greater extreme weather events, which are a disaster for modern agriculture: Researchers Link Extreme Rains To Global Warming

[bush_cheney2004]

Yes, there did used to be climate norms that formed the basis of modern agriculture...especially in the Tropics. For example, all of the major rice-growing countries have depended on a regular cycle between a dry season and a monsoon season, with the occasional bad year with little rain;

LOL! Yea, those occasional "bad years" were a bitch....and not so rare even before global warming climate change.

but it has been assumed up until recent years that a drought year was an aberation, and next year would be better. Now, we are seeing droughts last several years, interspersed with massive floods that bring the rains down in torrents and destroy crops, and drain away before most of the water can be absorbed into the water table.

Wow! Like that has never happened before?

The new normal is that every year (especially in the Global South) is a crap shoot -- no one knows what to expect, and along with eroding topsoils and declining water tables, that's why agricultural production in the Third World is in decline....and unfortunately at a time when their populations are still increasing.

There is no normal...only standard deviations. And it has been that way for a very long time. I guess those who are so worried about this and every other bogeyman are justa gonna die.

Edited February 17, 2011 by bush_cheney2004

[WIP]

As a percentage, there is less starvation over time. As countries improve economically, food becomes less of a problem.

I just showed you the numbers if you cared to read them! I'd like to be an optimist too; but blind optimism is just as irrational as paranoia; such as we find in some people who insult their Muslim neighbours because they believe they are secret Islamic sleeper cells.

The simple facts are that the world is in a state of ecological overshoot by 25 to 50%, depending on who's numbers you use. The Green Revolution and intensive agriculture using oil-based fertilizers and pesticides, is using up available topsoil about 16 times faster than it can be rehabilitated. Plus, water is in steep decline: rivers have been diverted so intensely that Lake Chad is drying up in the Sub-Sahara, the Aral Sea goes dry in the Caucasus, and the Dead Sea between Jordan and Israel is also shrinking because of increased demands on the Jordan River.

Long story short, these debts owed to Planet Earth by world food production have to be payed back at some point. If it doesn't start now, most of the world we become a giant Easter Island in the next one to three decades. BTW that current projection that the World's population will reach 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually level off, is just not going to happen! Even without periodic weather disasters, world agriculture yields are already in decline, and will never be able to support a population of 9 billion!

We are in a situation similar to deer living on crowded little islands with no predators, who consume all of the available food until there is mass starvation. The classic human version of this drama (if you think we are too smart and logical to find ourselves in this situation) is the Polynesian civilization on Easter Island, that built those giant statues as a legacy.

Their intentions are completely clear: they want to become wealthier. That is done through a process of investment and increased economic activity.

I've noticed on most issues that you seem to hug the middle of road somewhere, but mushy middle-of-the-road liberalism is not solving any major problems in the World today! The great liberal institutions of the Press, the Labour Unions, the Universities, have either stood by silently, or been coopted by the corporate agenda of Globalization. There is no smiley face to draw on the way modern economics works today. It is a toxic system that colonizes poor nations and leaves the vast majority in the developed nations declining in wealth. The professional liberal class that occupies the New York Times, and the Toronto Star here, have not provided any solutions to the growing wealth gap or the growing power of corporate citizens at our expense....since they collect cheques from the same sources. Their advice has left us exactly where we would be following the conservative agenda.

[Michael Hardner]

I just showed you the numbers if you cared to read them! I'd like to be an optimist too; but blind optimism is just as irrational as paranoia; such as we find in some people who insult their Muslim neighbours because they believe they are secret Islamic sleeper cells.

I did read them and I responded. Hunger is on the wane.

Wikipedia

World Bank data shows that the percentage of the population living in households with consumption or income per person below the poverty line has decreased in each region of the world since 1990:[137][138]

Region

1990 2002 2004

East Asia and Pacific

15.40% 12.33% 9.07%

Europe and Central Asia

3.60% 1.28% 0.95%

Latin America and the Caribbean

9.62% 9.08% 8.64%

Middle East and North Africa

2.08% 1.69% 1.47%

South Asia

35.04% 33.44% 30.84%

Sub-Saharan Africa

46.07% 42.63% 41.09%

Other human development indicators have also been improving. Life expectancy has greatly increased in the developing world since WWII and is starting to close the gap to the developed world.[citation needed] Child mortality has decreased in every developing region of the world.[citation needed] The proportion of the world's population living in countries where per-capita food supplies are less than 2,200 calories (9,200 kilojoules) per day decreased from 56% in the mid-1960s to below 10% by the 1990s. Similar trends can be observed for literacy, access to clean water and electricity and basic consumer items.[139]

The simple facts are that the world is in a state of ecological overshoot by 25 to 50%, depending on who's numbers you use. The Green Revolution and intensive agriculture using oil-based fertilizers and pesticides, is using up available topsoil about 16 times faster than it can be rehabilitated. Plus, water is in steep decline: rivers have been diverted so intensely that Lake Chad is drying up in the Sub-Sahara, the Aral Sea goes dry in the Caucasus, and the Dead Sea between Jordan and Israel is also shrinking because of increased demands on the Jordan River.

Long story short, these debts owed to Planet Earth by world food production have to be payed back at some point. If it doesn't start now, most of the world we become a giant Easter Island in the next one to three decades. BTW that current projection that the World's population will reach 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually level off, is just not going to happen! Even without periodic weather disasters, world agriculture yields are already in decline, and will never be able to support a population of 9 billion!

We are in a situation similar to deer living on crowded little islands with no predators, who consume all of the available food until there is mass starvation. The classic human version of this drama (if you think we are too smart and logical to find ourselves in this situation) is the Polynesian civilization on Easter Island, that built those giant statues as a legacy.

All of these things are speculative. I have been hearing this since the 1970s.

I've noticed on most issues that you seem to hug the middle of road somewhere, but mushy middle-of-the-road liberalism is not solving any major problems in the World today! The great liberal institutions of the Press, the Labour Unions, the Universities, have either stood by silently, or been coopted by the corporate agenda of Globalization. There is no smiley face to draw on the way modern economics works today. It is a toxic system that colonizes poor nations and leaves the vast majority in the developed nations declining in wealth. The professional liberal class that occupies the New York Times, and the Toronto Star here, have not provided any solutions to the growing wealth gap or the growing power of corporate citizens at our expense....since they collect cheques from the same sources. Their advice has left us exactly where we would be following the conservative agenda.

Have you ever flown to California ? There is still lots of room.

No room for doom and gloom though. Wealth Gap is hyped proportionally to the number of lower class people who own TVs, which is increasing all the time.

Wealth Gap means relative poverty, not absolute.

[bush_cheney2004]

....The professional liberal class that occupies the New York Times, and the Toronto Star here, have not provided any solutions to the growing wealth gap or the growing power of corporate citizens at our expense....since they collect cheques from the same sources. Their advice has left us exactly where we would be following the conservative agenda.

Now this is rich...not only did you work in the New York Times for added credibility, but you are pretending that the "liberal class" are expected to provide any such "solutions".

[WIP]

There never was a global normal...not for climate, and certainly not for the agribusiness, which actually increased production using methods that you now find to be unacceptable. Let the starving and obese people fight it out.

There are numbers tallying the losses in 2010 caused by extreme weather events. You can argue opinions, but you don't get your own facts because the real ones are inconvenient. And the environmental fundamentals that power big agribusiness are unsustainable...that's also a point beyond argument, since topsoil is being depleted 10 times faster than replacement capacity in the U.S., and China and India are losing soil 30 to 40 times faster than the natural replenishment rate. Add declining fresh water levels, peak oil's effect on the use of oil-based fertilizers and pesticides, and pollution from these toxic chemicals and factory farm runoff, and tell me again how big agribusiness is going to sustain its present levels of production....let alone try to increase them to meet increasing population demands?

Your last suggestion is the nihilist response, but it may be where we actually end up in the coming years!

[WIP]

I did read them and I responded. Hunger is on the wane.

Wikipedia

I checked the footnote of your Wikipedia info; the data was compiled in 2005, so it's not up to date with what's happening now in the World. The latest numbers show an increase in starvation in the last decade, with an improvement in 2009 due to improved farm yields worldwide, and then back to over a billion starving this last year, and continuing into this year due to large scale crop losses and rising food prices.

All of these things are speculative. I have been hearing this since the 1970s.

And the underlying fundamentals haven't changed! The Green Revolution only succeeded in delaying the final reckoning -- the final results will be worse than what was forecast in the late 60's, since the population has doubled, and environmental degradation has been prolonged to bring us to our present situation where there is no slack left since there are no large tracts of arable land in the World to be put into food production.

[WIP]

Now this is rich...not only did you work in the New York Times for added credibility, but you are pretending that the "liberal class" are expected to provide any such "solutions".

Maybe not solutions for you! But for working class people, especially union members, the failure and co-opting of liberal institutions is a total betrayal, since union leaders, liberal politicians, liberal journalists, and the liberal university intellectuals have mostly sold out to the highest bidder over the last 30 years.

In the U.S., there is a pitched battle among left bloggers over who represents the progressives....the Obots and other diehard supporters of Democratic politicians, or the leftwingers who put principle ahead of personalities, and declare that if Obama and other Dems are carrying out a largely rightwing agenda, then they should be totally discarded and real progressives should be trying to take over local Democratic Party Associations the way Tea Party groups have taken over the Republican Party at the local level.

Here in Canada, it means anyone who thinks Michael Ignatieff would be any more than a marginal change from the Harper Government, is a fool! Whether the NDP is worth supporting, is matter of locality. I'm happy with my local MP, but Jack Layton needs to go.

[Michael Hardner]

ame='Michael Hardner' date='17 February 2011 - 04:28 PM' timestamp='1297978099' post='627115']

I did read them and I responded. Hunger is on the wane.

Wikipedia

I checked the footnote of your Wikipedia info; the data was compiled in 2005, so it's not up to date with what's happening now in the World. The latest numbers show an increase in starvation in the last decade, with an improvement in 2009 due to improved farm yields worldwide, and then back to over a billion starving this last year, and continuing into this year due to large scale crop losses and rising food prices.

I didn't look very hard for my stats. Do you have something that shows % malnutrition up to current date ? It's important to look at longer term trends, and from what I've seen these are still improving.

China's investment in Africa will help.

And the underlying fundamentals haven't changed! The Green Revolution only succeeded in delaying the final reckoning -- the final results will be worse than what was forecast in the late 60's, since the population has doubled, and environmental degradation has been prolonged to bring us to our present situation where there is no slack left since there are no large tracts of arable land in the World to be put into food production.

In the 1960s they were predicting disaster for today, certainly not hunger rates that have halved, increased democracy and reduced threat of global nuclear war.

Some ofhe things that the doom and gloomers don't take into account are social change, and technology:

- Social change (birth control has taken root in the third world, and it will continue to improve things, democracy brings improvements too )

- Technology (improved yields per acre, genetically modified crops, etc.)

[WIP]

WIP

Check out Gerald Celente (linked in my sig) He does Trends Research Journal, and has been talking about this current crisis before it became a crisis. And he said much of what is in your post.

"When people lose everything , they lose it." ..... so true.

I'm allergic to Alex Jones! Most of his fellow conspiracy theorists follow his same recipe of one part facts, one part conjecture, and two parts exaggerated bullshit. I found of this Gerald Celente even more irritating and obnoxious than the host....and that takes some doing! This guy may know currency issues and economics....I started drifting a bit during that clip....but this Mr. Knowitall is talking about money, when the real underlying issue is rising food prices. It's not just an economics issue if it's a country like Egypt, or many other Middle Eastern nations that are overpopulated and can't grow enough food to support their populations. Egypt's population has grown from 27 million in 1960 to almost 85 million today. Oil production is in decline, and imported food is getting more expensive, since there are so many other buyers of food commodities lately.

This would be an economics issue if Egypt and other M.E. countries had the capacity to turn these problems around; but a new government, whether it's democratic or not, has little room to work with to figure out a way to bring down food prices in Egypt. And, if you think that's bad, take a look at some of the background articles on Yemen! Same problems: overpopulation, declining food production, importing more food from abroad plus there is the unusual looming crisis for Yemen's population of having almost the entire nation dependent on an underground fossil aquifer for fresh water. That means this is water that does not replenish. Like oil, it will run out, and when it does, there will be an entire nation with no water supply.

[bush_cheney2004]

Maybe not solutions for you! But for working class people, especially union members, the failure and co-opting of liberal institutions is a total betrayal, since union leaders, liberal politicians, liberal journalists, and the liberal university intellectuals have mostly sold out to the highest bidder over the last 30 years.

So why would you expect otherwise? Even liberals will choose what is best for their own economic interests.

In the U.S., there is a pitched battle among left bloggers over who represents the progressives....the Obots and other diehard supporters of Democratic politicians, or the leftwingers who put principle ahead of personalities, and declare that if Obama and other Dems are carrying out a largely rightwing agenda, then they should be totally discarded and real progressives should be trying to take over local Democratic Party Associations the way Tea Party groups have taken over the Republican Party at the local level.

The progressives were always overrated and marginalized. Their calling is not sustainable. Guys like Kucinich or Wellstone were just sacrificial anodes for the real party aparatus.

Here in Canada, it means anyone who thinks Michael Ignatieff would be any more than a marginal change from the Harper Government, is a fool! Whether the NDP is worth supporting, is matter of locality. I'm happy with my local MP, but Jack Layton needs to go.

I don't care what you do in Canada. Be as "progressive" as you want to be, all while selling out to the United States!

[WIP]

I didn't look very hard for my stats. Do you have something that shows % malnutrition up to current date ? It's important to look at longer term trends, and from what I've seen these are still improving.

It's not improving; 2009 provided some relief with greater harvests than the previous four years. At the end of 2008, the starvation estimate was 1.02 billion as cited previously. Tentative figures for this year show it will rise back to a billion after falling to 925 million last year. 2010 was a bad year for world agricultural production, and 2011 is not going to be much better due to prolonged droughts in Russia, China and Brazil, and floods in Australia. Current projections are for a modest improvement (at least for wheat production) over last year's disaster, but that's assuming no big surprises from Mother Nature, which are coming more frequently than in the past. Canada's spring wheat production is expected to be much lower because large snowfalls out West are expected to lead to spring flooding.

China's investment in Africa will help.

It might help China! But forcing indigenous peoples off land and setting up large scale operations for growing cash crops for export to China is not going to help Africans; and will likely lead to more starvation.

In the 1960s they were predicting disaster for today, certainly not hunger rates that have halved, increased democracy and reduced threat of global nuclear war.

Hunger rates have doubled, not halved! There were half a billion at starvation level in the late 60's; now there's a billion.

Some ofhe things that the doom and gloomers don't take into account are social change, and technology:

- Social change (birth control has taken root in the third world, and it will continue to improve things, democracy brings improvements too )

- Technology (improved yields per acre, genetically modified crops, etc.)

Birth control helped slow the rate of population growth here; but in the Third World the birth rates started increasing due to the meddling of religious fundamentalists...especially the tag team of the Catholic Church and leading Muslim clerics that pushed back against the U.N. family planning organizations, and eliminated birth control, condoms, and the abortion option. And technology pulled their last big food-growing rabbit out of the hat with the Green Revolution. There is limited capacity to find any more big efficiencies in food production now.

And, those underlying fundamentals of topsoil depletion many times greater than replacement rate, and declining fresh water have to be dealt with at some point. The experience of past civilizations has been that nothing is done until a crisis cannot be avoided.

[WIP]

So why would you expect otherwise? Even liberals will choose what is best for their own economic interests.

The progressives were always overrated and marginalized. Their calling is not sustainable. Guys like Kucinich or Wellstone were just sacrificial anodes for the real party aparatus.

Ever hear of the Guilded Age? That was also a time when the rich thought they could do whatever they liked and got fat while people in factory sweatshops were literally worked to death....and that's how we got the Labour Movement! The weekend, the 8 hour day, and the right to collective bargaining were concessions extracted when the fatcats started to fear for their lives. Now that most of America has lost their unions and collective bargaining rights, the rich are trying to tear down the last citadel of collective bargaining -- the public employees unions....and I hope that what's happening in Wisconsin is the beginning of a long-overdue reform movement to take back some of what has been lost to your Republican friends over the last 30 years.

[Shwa]

Where do find hyperbole? Take a look at what's been happening the last few years....food prices soaring, global food stocks declining, and weather becoming increasing erratic. There's no guarantee that the good times will keep rolling here based on what's happening in other places in the world.

But there is no guarantee that disaster is around the corner either. So I find the tone of the article to be self-defeating hyperbolic that turns people off to actually chipping in.

Maybe...if they stopped diverting corn for producing ethanol. What would happen to that surplus if the U.S. got hit with a heatwave similar to the one that hit Russia this last summer? Russia's grain harvest dropped 40% and led to a halt on exports....what would happen if U.S. grain harvests dropped 40% in one year?

They would halt exports? But they would deal with it. I mean, dustbowl, it's not like the Yanks don't have plenty of experience, know-how and strategy.

Then add it to the others! The facts are: population is increasing, while world food production is dropping because of depleting topsoil and declining water tables. And, add the wildcard of climate change -- which will bring us more floods, more droughts, and wreak havoc on large scale agriculture that depends on stable, repeated weather patterns.

Sure there are factors to be mitigated. But it comes down to opposing sides not seeing the middle. We have the Hell scenario and the Heaven scenario when history really shows us we fall somewhere into the middle. I am not saying that food policies need to change, and they are - especially with the recognition that obesity - the overabundance of food - is a problem.

Sure, the U.S. will need profits to pay for the extra military and security costs that are going to be associated with food shortages in the Third World.

So? So will we.

Sure it would! Check out Goldman Sachs for one -- that is buying up wheat, rice and other commodity futures to keep the prices from falling. But, they wouldn't be willing to lose money cornering the futures markets if they believed there was any possibility that present food crises were about to change. The Wall Street vultures are circling for good reasons!

Something that hasn't gone unnoticed I'm sure. Remember, the might of the US can be turned - and often has - to address internal matters as well.

Well, one thing it means is inflation, from rising food prices. It also means more uprisings and instability in countries that have been straining under the effects of rising food prices for the last couple of years.

Yes, and hopefully - just hopefully - their populace will turn to where it benefits them the most. They have to eat. We got the food and they lack the ability to just take it.

Australia is normally a major food exporter; but being one of the few developed nations that is partially within the Tropics, Australians are privy to the most dramatic and devastating effects of climate change so far....which have primarily affected countries in the Global South. Prolonged droughts have wiped out wheat and livestock, and the floods in Eastern Australia are taking care of what's left of Australian agriculture! Australia has the money to import food, just like Russia, China, and a few other countries that have been hard hit recently; but what does that do for global food prices?

They go up, the have-nots have less, they struggle. You know WIP, the greatest facilitator peace and stability might just be foodstuffs.

And, these sorts of things cannot be written off as temporary shortfalls anymore, thanks to global warming. The variability in weather is going to be with us permanently, and some of the changes, such as the prolonged droughts in Australia, China and Brazil, are telling us that there is no "normal" to return to anymore.

Yes they will be, I don't doubt that and we'll deal with it, like we always have. Now, I grant that we might be on a precipice of disaster, but I don't see it that way. We are a resilient bunch, we have adapted ourselves to a great variation of environment and circumstance. And as much as we are facing the lack of normality, well, it has always been that hasn't it? In the long view I mean?

[Michael Hardner]

Hunger rates have doubled, not halved! There were half a billion at starvation level in the late 60's; now there's a billion.

I'm going to single out this statement from your post, as we need to resolve this. Hunger rates have HALVED since 1970 from the stats I saw.

By RATE we mean the rate at which hunger occurs in the population, or percentage of hungry. The population of the earth is increasing far more quickly than the hunger rate.