Is Crime Really Down?

[Alta4ever]

Most of the stuff posted on this website is ignorant drivel. Excuse me for not wanting to waste my own time.

Then don't bother coming to the site you won't be missed.

[Jack Weber]

Then don't bother coming to the site you won't be missed.

Pot meet kettle...

[Argus]

No then you are amongst those with common sense.

If you call my having to put bars on all my basement windows and alarms on all the ground floor windows and doors, and dead bolts on the front and rear... yeah, common sense. So yeah, I feel pretty safe. And how does that reflect on my views on crime?

[Wilber]

That would be very insightful Wilber. The first thing that comes to my mind relates to how many people have installed alarm systems in their homes to thwart break ins and home invasions. In my experience, twenty years ago anyone who had an alarm system in their home had to be a rich dude. Nowadays, home alarm system seem very common. Another thing, are more citizens arming themselves with pepper spray, whistles or other gadgets when they venture out of their homes? Attention to personal security covers a lot of ground, doesn't it?

When I was a kid we didn't lock doors or cars in many neighbourhoods. Not any more.

[Wilber]

Got to thinking about car theft. In the sixties cars were so simple that any idiot could hot wire one but car theft wasn't a huge problem. Now the government is so concerned that alarm systems and immobilizers are mandatory on all new vehicles. You can argue statistics all you want but anyone who lived back then knows that people were much less concerned about their safety merely because they felt there was no need to take many of the precautions we now consider to be elementary. I really do believe Day's numbers reflect a reality even if they aren't 100% accurate.

[Guest TrueMetis]

If you call my having to put bars on all my basement windows and alarms on all the ground floor windows and doors, and dead bolts on the front and rear... yeah, common sense. So yeah, I feel pretty safe. And how does that reflect on my views on crime?

What's you point? I don't lock my door and keep the window in my room open all night. How does that reflect on my views on crime?

[Keepitsimple]

Got to thinking about car theft. In the sixties cars were so simple that any idiot could hot wire one but car theft wasn't a huge problem. Now the government is so concerned that alarm systems and immobilizers are mandatory on all new vehicles. You can argue statistics all you want but anyone who lived back then knows that people were much less concerned about their safety merely because they felt there was no need to take many of the precautions we now consider to be elementary. I really do believe Day's numbers reflect a reality even if they aren't 100% accurate.

Ain't that the truth. But you can't really blame people who were born in 1970 or later......they've grown up with similar crime rates over the past 20-25 years so they don't really know any different. They simply can't imagine a time when crime was one-third of what it is today.

[waldo]

If you look at the facts displayed in those charts, can you honestly say that crime has gone down - simply because the year 1991 was the highest point in history? If there is any ideology in play here, it is by those who would ignore history going back to 1962 and have us think that things are just fine.

A convoluted parallel to this is "Global Warming". The so-called deniers have been accused of choosing 1998 as the starting point - the peak of Global Warming. Similar to the crime statistics, temperatures since then have pretty well stopped warming. Yet the Alarmists refer over and over than it's gotten hotter since 1950 and that we should not pay any attention to the trend of the last 12 years.

1991 works for crime.....just like 1950 works for Global Warming.

Ideology indeed.

Right. "So-called deniers" versus (objectively) "alarmists."

You're so ensconced in ideology (as your error-ridden remarks on Global warming underline) that you think you're utterly free of it.

Conservatives don't fall under ideology--they just state the facts, ma'am. While anyone on the left (the left of you...so including moderates) are prey to "ideology."

It's an awesome tautology, my man.

yes, truly, Simple is so ensconced in ideology... to the point he would reach for a failed 'global warming' parallel rather than attempt to establish the legitimacy of referencing 60's era crime stats. Gee, I wonder if there have been, for example, any socioeconomic influences between the 60's and today - ya think, Simple? Might there actually be significantly more value in measuring today's crime relative to the 1991 peak, versus 60's era data - ya think, Simple? As many times as Simple has been schooled in the technical basics of trending, on the illegitimacy of climatic related short-term trending, on the illegitimacy of cherry-picking short-term trending periods within climatic related analysis, Simple continues to ignore the fundamentals, over and over and over, again. Now Simple's ensconced ideology would presume to have him legitimize a parallel between climatic related trending and crime related trending - yeesh, what a maroon, what a rube!

now, as an aside, Simple has been shown, many times over, that warming has occurred and continues. Simple often shifts into his Concern Troll mode and opines that he accepts and acknowledges warming - he blathers something along the lines of, "all skeptics accept it's warming"... while then proceeding to beak-off about the uncertainties of what's actually causing that warming. In follow-up iterations of Simple's world, he'll start cherry-picking short-period trend intervals to suggest it's actually cooling... and he's not particular to any one such short-period trending interval - he likes em all, whether it's 4 years, 7 years, 9 years, 11 years... or, in this latest iteration, now a 12 year interval period being referenced. Of course, as has been done, when Simple is actually presented with real trending data that shows positive (warming) temperature trending over some of these ridiculous short-period intervals, he simply ignores it. More pointedly, when challenged to provide substantiation to his 'cooling meme', Simple goes silent... it's the same repeated Simple pattern - over and over and over, again.

[Molly]

Ain't that the truth. But you can't really blame people who were born in 1970 or later......they've grown up with similar crime rates over the past 20-25 years so they don't really know any different. They simply can't imagine a time when crime was one-third of what it is today.

On the other hand, some old farts have extraordinary imaginations.

[Wild Bill]

On the other hand, some old farts have extraordinary imaginations.

Ageism, Molly?

You realize that if it were indeed just imagination a lot of politicians would sleep easier. Voters with no memory! They'd think they died and went to heaven!

[capricorn]

yes, truly, Simple is so ensconced in ideology......Simple pattern - over and over and over, again.

Hmm. Addressing Keepitsimple as Simple twelve times in two paragraphs. Shades of Keepitsimple Derangement Syndrome (KDS)?

[capricorn]

On the other hand, some old farts have extraordinary imaginations.

At what age does one become an "old fart"?

[Keepitsimple]

Hmm. Addressing Keepitsimple as Simple twelve times in two paragraphs. Shades of Keepitsimple Derangement Syndrome (KDS)?

Did I mention that I have Waldo on IGNORE?

[capricorn]

That's no way to treat your biggest fan.

[waldo]

Hmm. Addressing Keepitsimple as Simple twelve times in two paragraphs. Shades of Keepitsimple Derangement Syndrome (KDS)?

wow! You can count... of course, if you actually checked other MLW forums you'd realize others also 'dumb it down' and refer to Keepitsimple as... "Simple". Nothing is meant by it - shortened keystrokes, ya know - hey cappy? Now, on the other hand, when Simple really steps in it, as he so often does in climate change related threads, you'll occasionally see some wag refer to him as "Simple ton".

[waldo]

Did I mention that I have Waldo on IGNORE?

yes, every chance you get... for a period there it was almost daily - you know, during that same period where you felt equally obligated to update my posts (you know, the ones you were ignoring).

have I mentioned before the circumstances surrounding your meltdown and the ignore invocation? I have? Well, once more with vigor... ya see, Simple, you really didn't like being called out on your insistence that an abortion debate come forward within Canada - you really didn't like it being pointed out that your legality tinged posts were calling for (Harper Conservative) morality legislation. No... you really didn't like that, at all - hey, Simple ton?

[capricorn]

wow! You can count... of course, if you actually checked other MLW forums you'd realize others also 'dumb it down' and refer to Keepitsimple as... "Simple". Nothing is meant by it - shortened keystrokes, ya know - hey cappy?

Yeah. But twelve times in a two paragraph post? That really..really...shortens the keystrokes.

Now, on the other hand, when Simple really steps in it, as he so often does in climate change related threads, you'll occasionally see some wag refer to him as "Simple ton".

I'm in awe of such wit.

[waldo]

Yeah. But twelve times in a two paragraph post? That really..really...shortens the keystrokes.

I'm in awe of such wit.

Economizers-R-Us! But really, c'mon... your half-wit awe is misplaced given that you're half-way there yourself.

[Wilber]

On the other hand, some old farts have extraordinary imaginations.

Interesting how many think they know more about an era than the people who lived in it. Kind of like me telling my parents what it was like to be in WW2.

[nicky10013]

Interesting how many think they know more about an era than the people who lived in it. Kind of like me telling my parents what it was like to be in WW2.

Memories are interesting things in that we always remember things the way we want to remember things. Nostalgia, the goold old days, whatever you want to call it.

In the former German Democratic Republic a majority of people want to return to Communism. They cleverly call it Ostalgie; ost clearly being the word for east. They remember their time under communism as a lot better than it actually was because naturally their mind harkens back to the good things rather than the bad. They remember full employment, solidarity and nationalism rather than the Stasi and food lines.

Though this example doesn't exactly relate to the topic at hand, it at least shows that relying on memory of a better time isn't exactly a good thing to do.

[Bonam]

We have both hard statistical data and the experiences of people from that time period telling us that crime was much lower in the 60s than it was in the 90s or is now. And yet some people try to deny this reality, with absolutely no evidence, purely on ideological grounds.

Sorry, but, while everyone is entitled to their own opinion, you are not entitled to your own facts.

[waldo]

We have both hard statistical data and the experiences of people from that time period telling us that crime was much lower in the 60s than it was in the 90s or is now. And yet some people try to deny this reality, with absolutely no evidence, purely on ideological grounds.

Sorry, but, while everyone is entitled to their own opinion, you are not entitled to your own facts.

and... everyone is entitled to analyze those facts and apply them accordingly. Apparently, it's not enough that Harper Conservatives need to invent policy for imaginary crime... it appears they need to validate against 50-year old data in order to claim crime isn't/hasn't fallen since the 1991 peak level... oh, wait - that's another fact! I've yet to read any Harper Conservative basis that validates a comparison of present day crime rates to 60's era data... anyone... anyone?

[Wilber]

Memories are interesting things in that we always remember things the way we want to remember things. Nostalgia, the goold old days, whatever you want to call it.

And yet, no one I knew had an alarm system on their home or car until the eighties nor was a CLUB ever seen because they didn't exist. Cars didn't have locking steering columns, you could steal one just by opening the hood (cars didn't even have inside hood releases), using a piece of wire to connect the primary ignition circuit directly to the battery and start the thing by grounding the terminal on the starter solenoid with a screw driver. You could get into any car with a coat hangar and steal it without doing any damage to the thing at all. Piece of cake yet car theft wasn't rampant and chop shops were almost unknown. That is not imagination, it's fact. Any old car guy can give you a demonstration.

Two reasons. 1. They put you in the slammer if you got caught. 2. We were not yet a drug culture.

[nicky10013]

And yet, no one I knew had an alarm system on their home or car until the eighties nor was a CLUB ever seen because they didn't exist. Cars didn't have locking steering columns, you could steal one just by opening the hood (cars didn't even have inside hood releases), using a piece of wire to connect the primary ignition circuit directly to the battery and start the thing by grounding the terminal on the starter solenoid with a screw driver. You could get into any car with a coat hangar and steal it without doing any damage to the thing at all. Piece of cake yet car theft wasn't rampant and chop shops were almost unknown. That is not imagination, it's fact. Any old car guy can give you a demonstration.

Two reasons. 1. They put you in the slammer if you got caught. 2. We were not yet a drug culture.

Just because you didn't see it doesn't mean it didn't exist. Aside from littering and jaywalking, I've never seen a major crime take place. So, by your logic, crime must not exist even today.

[Wilber]

Just because you didn't see it doesn't mean it didn't exist. Aside from littering and jaywalking, I've never seen a major crime take place. So, by your logic, crime must not exist even today.

Guess you don't watch the news or read newspapers either.