Ekos Pollster Biased?

[Keepitsimple]

Frank Graves of Ekos Research - a regular polling company for the CBC - seems to have come out of the closet with regards to his political leanings. I would think that the most important attribute of a Pollster is to remain unbiased - at least publicly. But in an interview with the Globe & Mail, Mr. Graves openly admits giving strategic advice to the Liberals - which is blatantly anti-Conservative. After his outrageous comments hit the news (not a word from the Toronto Star yet), even the CBC will have to distance themselves from this man - or will they?

But In his advice, Mr. Graves could hardly have been more blunt. I told them that they should invoke a culture war. Cosmopolitanism versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy. If the cranky old men in Alberta dont like it, too bad. Go south and vote for Palin.

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/pollster-frank-graves-apologizes-denies-anti-tory-bias/article1544593/

Edited April 23, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[ToadBrother]

Frank Graves of Ekos Research - a regular polling company for the CBC - seems to have come out of the closet with regards to his political leanings. I would think that the most important attribute of a Pollster is to remain unbiased - at least publicly. But in an interview with the Globe & Mail, Mr. Graves openly admits giving strategic advice to the Liberals - which is blatantly anti-Conservative. After his outrageous comments hit the news (not a word from the Toronto Star yet), even the CBC will have to distance themselves from this man - or will they?

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/pollster-frank-graves-apologizes-denies-anti-tory-bias/article1544593/

Ignoring his comments for the moment (which will do EKOS a good deal of harm), is there any indication that the polls EKOS carries out are in fact problematic? I am having a discussion about the veracity of statistical analysis elsewhere on these forums, and the situation seems to apply. If the methodologies trend towards a bias or there has been some tinkering with data, I think there's a news story. If there isn't, then I don't think there's very much to talk about.

[Topaz]

One could also say the same thing for the Tories. Harper's former campaign manager, whose name I can't remember, also has or works for one of these polling companies and that poll has always had the Tories in the lead, bias? Who knows.

[waldo]

Ignoring his comments for the moment (which will do EKOS a good deal of harm), is there any indication that the polls EKOS carries out are in fact problematic?

If there isn't, then I don't think there's very much to talk about.

none, no indication... now... if one wanted to point fingers at Darryl Bricker and his Ipsos/Canwest polls - and explain those continual outliers that show 10 point leads for the CPC, well.....

it's simply a CPC reach for something - anything - to attempt a deflect from the Rahim/Helena show.

this is the article quote reference that has the CPC and their party faithful so concerned:

Liberals from the old Jean Chrétien school feel Mr. Ignatieff has been pitching the party too close to Conservative country. But his chief of staff, Peter Donolo, an old Chrétien hand, appears to be making his presence felt. There’s a leftward tilt in Iggy’s moves.

This follows a warning by pollster Allan Gregg. His research suggests the Liberals have lost ground because they no longer are seen to represent values that resonate with the broad sweep of Canadians.

Frank Graves of Ekos Research, in agreement with the analysis,

has told the Grits that the wedge politics of the Conservatives provide them with an opportunity to stake out a stark alternative. Stop worrying about the West

, he’s told them. No need to fear polarizing the debate. It’s what worked for Mr. Chrétien against Preston Manning and Stockwell Day.

In his advice, Mr. Graves could hardly have been more blunt. “

I told them that they should invoke a culture war. Cosmopolitanism versus parochialism, secularism versus moralism, Obama versus Palin, tolerance versus racism and homophobia, democracy versus autocracy. If the cranky old men in Alberta don’t like it, too bad. Go south and vote for Palin.

”

ya, clearly... the CPC appears to dislike being categorized as wedge decisive, parochial, moralistic, intolerant, autocratic... or... pro-Palin!

[capricorn]

it's simply a CPC reach for something - anything - to attempt a deflect from the Rahim/Helena show.

I might believe you if the Conservatives were trailing in the polls, but they are still leading in spite of the Jaffer/Guergis chronicles. This must really perplex the Liberals who were so sure a scandal had taken hold to sink the Conservatives.

ya, clearly... the CPC appears to dislike being categorized as wedge decisive, parochial, moralistic, intolerant, autocratic... or... pro-Palin!

Just like the Liberals must bristle at the suggestion that the majority of prison inmates vote for Liberals. Of course, this appears to be true.

Friday was voting day for prisoners across Canada. About 35,000 were eligible to vote, and many seemed to be voting Liberal in order to protect privileges that Conservatives threaten to take away.

"We're all voting for the Liberals, just because we want to keep our vote," Jeff Power, an inmate at Manitoba's Stony Mountain facility told CTV Winnipeg. "We don't want to lose rights like our TVs, stuff like that."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060112/elxn_prisoners_vote_060111/20060113?s_name=election2006&no_ads

[August1991]

One could also say the same thing for the Tories. Harper's former campaign manager, whose name I can't remember, also has or works for one of these polling companies and that poll has always had the Tories in the lead, bias? Who knows.

Frank Graves did $60 million worth of business with the federal government (under Chretien/Martin). Now, he has nothing.

Instead, Graves now gets contracts from the CBC.

----

Topaz, what do you think?

Edited April 24, 2010 by August1991

[waldo]

Just like the Liberals must bristle at the suggestion that the majority of prison inmates vote for Liberals. Of course, this appears to be true.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060112/elxn_prisoners_vote_060111/20060113?s_name=election2006&no_ads

I guess when the perogy move gutted the presumed Conservative 'get tough on crime' priorities... it's partisans are forced to reach back to the obscurity of a 2006 article in an attempt to posture that, yes, Conservatives really are the law and order crew! Really... they are... just read this 2006 article!

[Michael Hardner]

I just posted on another thread about how stupid it would be for polling firms to politicize, but I guess this has already happened. I think it's a dumb business practice more than anything else, and these statements prove it out as far as I'm concerned.

[capricorn]

it's partisans are forced to reach back to the obscurity of a 2006 article

If you wish to believe that 4 year old media articles are "obscure", knock yourself out.

Question. Do you really laugh out loud every time you post the LOL emoticon?

[Topaz]

Frank Graves did $60 million worth of business with the federal government (under Chretien/Martin). Now, he has nothing.

Instead, Graves now gets contracts from the CBC.

----

Topaz, what do you think?

What I REALLY think is, none of this matters because in the end its the VOTERS that decide isn't it? That being said, I also think that Harper has setup the provinces like B.C. and Ontario to voted out the Libs when their provincial elections comes. Why? The HST! Harper said he wanted to paint Canada blue and by getting the provinces to take the HST, will ensure that the voters of those provinces are voted out their present government, for Tory governments.What is happening in those two provinces, voting out the Lib parties!

[waldo]

If you wish to believe that 4 year old media articles are "obscure", knock yourself out.

sorry to burst your deflection attempt. And yes it was/is an obscure article, one selected by a partisan (you) in a bizarrely defensive and pathetic reach... an obscure article written without a byline... written by a nameless staffer... written for an online outlet with a moderate query level web ranking... for a 4 year old dated election since passed... in the context of presuming to counter suggestion that Conservatives and their partisans appear not to like being categorized as, "wedge decisive, parochial, moralistic, intolerant, autocratic... or... pro-Palin!" An obscure article? - why yes, it was/is

[Argus]

If you wish to believe that 4 year old media articles are "obscure", knock yourself out.

Question. Do you really laugh out loud every time you post the LOL emoticon?

It seems to be the only way he can convey the depth of his contempt for everyone who has a different opinion on any subject than he does. His literary skills certainly aren't up to the task. Though whenever I read one of his posts, his "HAW HAW HAW" attitude tends to make me think of an overweight, balding guy in a wifebeater t-shirt scratching his enormous butt and picking his nose. I doubt that's the image he's trying to convey though.

[Michael Hardner]

What I REALLY think is, none of this matters because in the end its the VOTERS that decide isn't it?

Voters decide based on information. If somebody was spreading false facts, then that would affect the outcome for awhile before the polling firm crashed and burned.

[waldo]

Argus!!! At some point, some day... you will get over it.

[punked]

What I REALLY think is, none of this matters because in the end its the VOTERS that decide isn't it? That being said, I also think that Harper has setup the provinces like B.C. and Ontario to voted out the Libs when their provincial elections comes. Why? The HST! Harper said he wanted to paint Canada blue and by getting the provinces to take the HST, will ensure that the voters of those provinces are voted out their present government, for Tory governments.What is happening in those two provinces, voting out the Lib parties!

Yah but in BC the Liberals are the Tories. Provincally the NDP have a 15 point lead over the Liberals that isn't really painting the province blue. Your argument makes no sense when you actually look at what is going on.

[Argus]

I'm wondering why you thought the advice was "shocking". In fact, it's basically the way they've been going at it for at least the last fifteen years. Doing their best to portray the Tories as intolerant - racist, homophobic, anti-immigrant, too religious, anti woman etc. has been Liberal policy since Chretien was elected. Hell, at one point they even said Reform were un-Canadian for demanding an answer to what the government would do if 51% of Quebecers voted approval in one of those obscurely worded referendums.

Nor have I seen any sign of a change in that pattern. After all, it's not like the Liberals have any policies or ideas on which to campaign. That leaves negative advertising as their sole hope of improvement.

[waldo]

That leaves negative advertising as their sole hope of improvement.

but, but, but... the Liberals! Conservatives!

that's right, according to you then, Conservatives have never, never, never..... engaged in negative advertising.

[Argus]

but, but, but... the Liberals! Conservatives!

that's right, according to you then, Conservatives have never, never, never..... engaged in negative advertising.

Sorry, Mr. Haw-Haw, but your comprehension skills are apparently as limited as your literary abilities. And I guess, your honesty, since I never said, hinted or implied anything of the sort.

As for your tired old "but the liberals" nonsense, they are the party trying to portray themselves as the alternative to the Tories. The fact they have nothing to offer but sleazy innuendo speaks volumes about them - and thus gives rise to no particularly desire to change governments on the part of the sane.

[waldo]

As for your tired old "but the liberals" nonsense, they are the party trying to portray themselves as the alternative to the Tories. The fact they have nothing to offer but sleazy innuendo speaks volumes about them - and thus gives rise to no particularly desire to change governments on the part of the sane.

buddy, you laid it forth - if you're going to set yourself up so smartly, expect to be called on it. If you're going to suggest that your favoured Conservative party does have policies or ideas on which to campaign... inferring the Liberal party doesn't; if you're going to suggest that negative advertising is the sole hope of improvement for Liberals... inferring the Conservative party doesn't/hasn't relied upon negative advertising - then expect to be called on it.

perhaps it's just your frustrations over Rahim/Helena - certainly, I've seen nothing from you in the past that might cause you to bluster forward over statements categorizing Conservatives as, "wedge decisive, parochial, moralistic, intolerant, autocratic... or... pro-Palin! (/snarc)

[Keepitsimple]

perhaps it's just your frustrations over Rahim/Helena - certainly, I've seen nothing from you in the past that might cause you to bluster forward over statements categorizing Conservatives as, "wedge decisive, parochial, moralistic, intolerant, autocratic... or... pro-Palin! (/snarc)

Mr. HEE-HAW.....that's a good one. Personally, I think the Jaffer/Guergis episode with actually HELP the Tories. So far, the government has made it clear that no one is above the law - not a cabinet minister, not a former MP. I think Canadians have clearly seen that - and they've clearly seen the Liberals flailing around trying to make it look otherwise. We'll see how the polls react over the next month or two.

[waldo]

sure Simple, watch those polls. Watch the EKOS polls that typically align with most other polls... then watch those Ipsos/Canwest polls, that typically have the CPC well above all the other polling results. (and, of course, those CPC supporters will be sure to factor in whatever significance they desire over Ipsos' Darryl Bricker's past employment within a Conservative government PMO - does anyone have Bricker's political contributions handy? Anyone... anyone...)

[punked]

sure Simple, watch those polls. Watch the EKOS polls that typically align with most other polls... then watch those Ipsos/Canwest polls, that typically have the CPC well above all the other polling results. (and, of course, those CPC supporters will be sure to factor in whatever significance they desire over Ipsos' Darryl Bricker's past employment within a Conservative government PMO - does anyone have Bricker's political contributions handy? Anyone... anyone...)

The problem with all polls now a days is you can inflate green party support to say it is close or not.

[Keepitsimple]

sure Simple, watch those polls. Watch the EKOS polls that typically align with most other polls... then watch those Ipsos/Canwest polls, that typically have the CPC well above all the other polling results. (and, of course, those CPC supporters will be sure to factor in whatever significance they desire over Ipsos' Darryl Bricker's past employment within a Conservative government PMO - does anyone have Bricker's political contributions handy? Anyone... anyone...)

As usual Waldo, you miss the point. Mr. Graves (not Mr. Bricker or any other pollster) was the one who openly went on record in the G & M as having given the Liberals "strategic" advice. I don't doubt that there are people behind most pollsters who have some personal bias but for heaven's sake, their polls lose credibility when their most prominent representative is perceived to be so openly biased and in this case, openly inflammatory. Pollsters should be smart enough to keep their biases out of the paper. I doubt we'll be seeing Mr. Graves much from now on.

[Argus]

buddy, you laid it forth - if you're going to set yourself up so smartly, expect to be called on it. If you're going to suggest that your favoured Conservative party does have policies or ideas on which to campaign... inferring the Liberal party doesn't

I didn't infer it. I flat out said it. It's one thing to criticize the government, another to actually come out with something different. So far, rather than suggest what the Tories ought to be doing, or what they would be doing, the Liberals have contented themselves with making moralistic platitudes and trying to suggest scandal everywhere. Remember last election, their plan for the economy was to get a plan. Greeeeat. Really impressive. Elect you and you'll try to figure out then what you're gonna do? Thanks, no thanks.

[Born Free]

Mr. HEE-HAW.....that's a good one. Personally, I think the Jaffer/Guergis episode with actually HELP the Tories. So far, the government has made it clear that no one is above the law - ...

That remains to be seen...