maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Report Posted May 30, 2004 Environics poll released this week by the CBC Libs: 46% Cons: 29% New Dem: 22% Oth: 2% Total: 99% My seat projections: Libs: 62 seats Cons: 27 seats New Dem: 17 seats Oth: 0 seats Total: 106 seats Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted May 30, 2004 Author Report Posted May 30, 2004 EKOS May 28/04 Ontario Libs: 40% Cons: 35% New Dem: 22% Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Posted June 1, 2004 Ipsos-Reid: May 31, 2004, May 22, 2004 ONTARIO Libs: 36%, down 6% / 42% (down 7%) Cons: 36%, up 8% / 28% (up 1%) New Dem: 21%, down 1% / 22% (up 5%) Grn: ? Oth: ? Undecided & Not voting: ? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
August1991 Posted June 1, 2004 Report Posted June 1, 2004 Thank you, MS. This poll result is key. It confirms a Tory minority. In 1979, the Tories (Clark) won with such poll results. Watch for a small lift pro-Tory and then a stop. Bottom line Liberal support in Ontario is about 30-40 seats. There is no question we'll have a Tory minority. The question is how close to 154 Harper will get it. Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Posted June 1, 2004 SES CPAC regional poll released June 1, 2004 Sample size: 1,000 Canadawide (identical to Ipsos-Reid) Ontario Libs: 39% Cons: 32% New Dem: 25% Grn: 3% Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
August1991 Posted June 1, 2004 Report Posted June 1, 2004 Note that the SES poll was conducted between 26 and 30 May (provincial Lib budget was 18 May) with a sample of 237 people. The MOE is +/- 6.5% 19 times out of 20, as they say. This SES poll is not significantly different from the Ipsos poll. Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 1, 2004 Author Report Posted June 1, 2004 Leger Marketing polling results released June 2, 2004 Ontario Libs: 39% Cons: 37% New Dem: 18% Ontario Company Date-------LI CO ND GR Leger Marketing 02/06-04 39 37 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/04 39 32 25 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/04 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/04 40 35 22 Environics 26/05/04 46 29 22 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
Kliege Posted June 3, 2004 Report Posted June 3, 2004 There is a lot of talk recently about the decline of Liberal support and the rise of Conservative support in Ontario. Political pundits are speculating on the reasons for this and most have settled on the idea that Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty's budget is the most likely culprit. They of course are wrong and like most political pundits, will eschew the simplist reason in favour of the their own theories so as to beguile the rubes into thinking they know something about Canadian politics that is worth reading. The real reason for the shift in support away from the Liberals to the Conservatives is the same reason Ontario's support has always shifted one way or the other. Ontario voters are contrarians when it comes to provincial and federal politics. This means that if a liberal government is in place on the federal level, Ontarians will typically support a conservative government on the provincial level. In similar fashion, if the province has a liberal government, the voters will favour a conservative federal candidate. The evidence bears this out. By examining this list of Canadian Prime Ministers and this list of Ontario Premiers you can see that whenever one side has held power on the federal level, it has been balanced by the opposite side holding power on the provincial level. During the long Liberal reign from 1935-1984, Ontario had a Conservative Premier from 1943-1985. This was followed by a reversal when Mulroney's conservatives held power in Ottawa and the NDP and Liberals shared power in Toronto during the same time period. Similarly, Chretien's reign was balanced by Harris. In fact, you'll note that since the start of the 20th century, the federal liberals have held office for 73 years and the provincial conservatives for 75 years. This is not merely a coincidence but is indicative of Ontario voter's desire to balance the political equation. This means that since Ontario voters made the choice last fall to put a Liberal government in power, their support on the federal level has shifted and will continue to shift in favour of the federal Conservative Party for that very basic reason. It's as simple as that and anyone who tries to dig for deeper meaning is just doing so in order to blow smoke up your ass. Just a little fact I thouht you should know. Quote
Jay Dee Posted June 3, 2004 Report Posted June 3, 2004 Guess that's why my late father voted for Grit standard bearer in provincial elections and for Tories federally....... In baseball there's a term for it? Covering ones bases? Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 5, 2004 Author Report Posted June 5, 2004 Ipsos-Reid regional polling for Ontario released June 4, 2004: Ontario Cons:35%, down 1% Libs: 32%, down 4% (down 17%, in 3 weeks) New Dem: 23%, up 2% Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 5, 2004 Author Report Posted June 5, 2004 Ontario Company Date-----------LI CO ND GR Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 32 35 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 39 37 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 39 32 25 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 40 35 22 Environics 26/05/2004 46 29 22 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 5, 2004 Author Report Posted June 5, 2004 According to the Ipso-Reid poll released June 4, 2004, it sure looks like the Liberals have huge problems in Ontario. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
falling leaf Posted June 5, 2004 Report Posted June 5, 2004 Maplesyrup I think Stephen Harper is going to win by a landside! I think they Canadian people with vote him in as our next Prime Minister. they have seen the future of this country coming together by a new CPC party. Its about time the east and west got together . I also think the Bloc would support Harper when he gets in . I think he will be fair to all Canadians . Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 5, 2004 Author Report Posted June 5, 2004 La bataille de l'Ontario Aucun candidat libéral ne peut prendre le scrutin à la légère. C'est là que se joue l'avenir du parti.Manon Cornellier Édition du samedi 5 et du dimanche 6 juin 2004 Toronto -- La soirée de porte-à-porte d'Olivia Chow tire à sa fin, le soleil est sur le point de se coucher et la rue résidentielle où elle se trouve se vide rapidement. Malgré cela, pas moyen de marcher jusqu'au coin de la rue sans se faire interpeller par des cyclistes ou arrêter par des piétons. Ils la connaissent, l'appellent par son prénom, lui demandent où trouver une affiche pour leur parterre. La candidate néo-démocrate dans Trinity-Spadina est, comme son mari et chef du parti Jack Layton, une célébrité locale après 11 années passées à siéger au conseil municipal, et si le NPD doit renaître à Toronto, c'est bien là. Son district recoupe une grande portion de ce comté qui compte une importante communauté chinoise. Combattive, passionnée et grande gueule, elle ne laisse personne indifférent. Surtout pas le député libéral sortant, Tony Ianno, qui, sans être inquiet, prend son adversaire au sérieux. En vérité, presque aucun libéral ontarien ne peut se permettre de prendre ces élections à la légère. C'est dans leur province que l'avenir de leur parti se jouera le 28 juin. Le Parti conservateur pose les plus grands risques, en particulier dans les quartiers cossus, les banlieues de la couronne torontoise et les régions rurales du sud et de l'est de la province. Le NPD, lui, fait sentir sa présence dans ses bastions traditionnels des villes industrielles et du centre de Toronto. Avec 106 circonscriptions, l'Ontario détient plus du tiers des sièges au Parlement, ce qui donne une mesure de l'enjeu. La grande région métropolitaine de Toronto, qui s'étend d'Oshawa à Hamilton, compte à elle seule une trentaine de sièges, soit autant que la Colombie-Britannique. La métropole ontarienne et le sud-ouest de la province sont donc très convoités. Le chef conservateur, Stephen Harper, vient d'ailleurs d'y passer toute la semaine alors que le chef libéral, Paul Martin, y a fait plusieurs arrêts. Exciting times, eh? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 8, 2004 Author Report Posted June 8, 2004 As you will see below, the order of the columns have been switched between the Liberals and the Conservatives, showing the Conservatives first, to refect their position in the polls. Ontario Company Date-----------CO LI ND GR OT UN SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22 If there is any place where the data is missing, and you know the URL where it can be obtained, please share it with us. Thanks. (108) Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 10, 2004 Author Report Posted June 10, 2004 Ontario Company Date-----------CO LI ND GR OT UN Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 36 35 24 ?? 05 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22 If there is any place where the data is missing, and you know the URL where it can be obtained, please share it with us. Thanks. (122) Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 10, 2004 Author Report Posted June 10, 2004 Leger Marketing June 9, 2004 Ontario Party/June 2/ June 9 Cons: 37%, 36, down 1% Libs: 39%, 35%, down 4% New Dem: 18%, 24%, up 6% Oth: 5%, 5%, flatlined These are incredibly positive results for the NDP in Ontario. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 Interesting how misleading the press can be when reporting on the election campaign, eh? Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
caesar Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 The Press; is a BIG problems in my mind. A large majority of our newspapers, tv and radio stations are owned by a single company (CAN-WEST) that tends to publish articles favouring their point of view. I believe that this near monopoly on our information network could be very dangerous and not give consumers/ citizens a unbiased view of the news. Quote
August1991 Posted June 11, 2004 Report Posted June 11, 2004 I believe that this near monopoly on our information network could be very dangerous and not give consumers/ citizens a unbiased view of the news. People have access to the CBC and more important now, the Internet. For those interested, there are ample opportunities to get the "real" story. For example, you caesar seem to have formed an opinion different from the so-called CanWest line. My conclusion? caesar, you are really saying that ordinary people are lazy, stupid or indifferent. Or, easily manipulated? Please respect ordinary people more than that, caesar. Otherwise I'd say you are an elitist. Quote
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 caesar.....surprising isn't it, how well the New Democrats is doing, considering they don't have any media support, compared to the Conservatives and the Liberals, who are backed by both the private and government media in Canada. I guess this just shows the strength of the New Democrats. Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 11, 2004 Author Report Posted June 11, 2004 Ontario Company Date-----------CO LI ND GR OT UN EKOS 11/06/2004 38 34 21 ?? ?? ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 36 35 24 ?? 05 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 14, 2004 Author Report Posted June 14, 2004 Ontario Company Date-----------CO LI ND GR OT UN Ipsos-Reid 15/06/2004 36 34 22 EKOS 11/06/2004 38 34 21 ?? ?? ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 36 35 24 ?? 05 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 17, 2004 Author Report Posted June 17, 2004 Ontario Company Date-----------CO LI ND GR OT UN SES CPAC 17/06/2004 40 36 23 02 ?? 15 Ipsos-Reid 15/06/2004 36 34 22 EKOS 11/06/2004 38 34 21 06 ?? ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 36 35 24 ?? 05 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
maplesyrup Posted June 20, 2004 Author Report Posted June 20, 2004 Ontario Company Date----------CO LI ND GR OT UN EKOS 19/06/2004 35 33 26 06 Ipsos-Reid 18/06/2004 33 30 16 05 SES CPAC 17/06/2004 40 36 23 02 ?? 15 Ipsos-Reid 15/06/2004 36 34 22 EKOS 11/06/2004 38 34 21 06 ?? ?? Leger Marketing 09/06/2004 36 35 24 ?? 05 00 SES CPAC 08/06/2004 43 33 22 03 ?? 16 Ipsos-Reid 04/06/2004 35 32 23 ?? Leger Marketing 02/06/2004 37 39 18 05 SES CPAC 01/06/2004 32 39 25 03 ?? 20 Ipsos-Reid 31/05/2004 36 36 21 EKOS 28/05/2004 35 40 22 Environics 26/05/2004 29 46 22 Quote An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. Anatole France
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