NDP takes the lead in BC?

[maplesyrup]

Marky Marissen and his funky bunch of candidates in third place

An unreleased Ekos Research Associates Inc. poll done for the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. is rumoured to show the federal New Democrats at 36 percent in British Columbia, with the Conservatives at 35 percent and the Liberals, managed in B.C. by Mark Marissen, at 26 percent, says one well-connected campaign observer. No word as to when those numbers will be broadcast

Mr Democratic Deficit made a huge mistake in appointing all those candidates. I saw a big Dosanjh campaign sign with a large "NO" scrawled on it on the noontime tv news yesterday.

[maplesyrup]

I wonder why the CBC is delaying the official release of this poll. Did they get the word from the Liberals?

[Kliege]

NDP support in British Columbia is only in two areas, Vancouver Island and the city of Vancouver itself. I fully expect the NDP to pick up 3 to 4 seats in British Columbia but that is isn't. The CPC will win the overall vote in the province with the NDP second

[maplesyrup]

Times have changed. The NDP will probably get 50% or more of the seats in BC. This poll is a good indication of things to come.

People in BC are fed up with the right wing (read Cons & Lib) policies of the Campbell Liberals and they desire some fairness restored to the tax system. National polls should be coming out at the end of the week and I expect the NDP will be closing the gap with the two front runners.

[August1991]

In Quebec, the Liberal vote is concentrated in about 15-20 seats. The Libs can get even 40% of the popular vote but that won't translate into seats.

It seems the same in BC with the NDP. The NDP vote is concentrated into certain regions.

BC Riding Predictions

Of the 36 BC seats, which 18 are going to go NDP?

[incidentally, in Ontario the NDP problem is different. The NDP vote is spread out. PR would be to the NDP's advantage.]

[maplesyrup]

The NDP will pick up more seats than the Cons in Ontario because the NDP vote is concentrated.

[Kliege]

Now Maple you have gone off the deep end. How is the NDP going to get more seats in Ontario then the CPC?

The NDP is only a seriously competitive in only a few ridings those being Windsor West,Windsor-Tecumesh,Toronto-Danforth,Trinity-Spadina,Ottawa Centre, Davenport,Hamilton Centre,Hamilton Mountain,Hamilton East -Stoney Creek

Beaches-East York, Sault Ste. Marie and maybe two ridings in the northern area of the province.

While the CPC are very competitive and strong in every riding in the 905 region and most of the province those being Carleton-Lanark,Renfrew-NipissingPerth-Wellington Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale Bramalea-Gore-Malton Brampton West Burlington Clarington-Scugog-UxbridgeDufferin-Caledon,Halton,Mississauga-Brampton South,Mississauga-Erindale, Mississauga South

Mississauga-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Markham-Unionville, Niagara Falls, Niagara West-Glanbrook

Oak Ridges-Markham, Oakville,Oshawa,Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Leeds-Grenville, Ottawa South,Parry Sound-Muskoka Elgin-Middlesex-LondonGrey-Bruce-Owen Sound

Kitchener-Conestoga Kitchener-Waterloo,Northumberland-Quinte West London West

Oxford,Simcoe-North,Simcoe Grey,Wellington-Halton Hills, Prince Edward-Hastings, Ajax Pickering, Richmond Hill, Vaughn, Barrie, Halmiad-Norfolk, St Catherines, South Storemont-Glengarry-Cromwell

Right Now the NDP have real possibilty of 6 seats, that could up to 10 but over that now way.

Right Now the CPC as a real possibility of 16-24 that could go up into 30-34 range and even higher of the outside chance they form a minority government. All it takes is a CpC Ontario vote of 31-36% and half the ridings are up for grabs, couple that with a strong NDP vote in many ridings and the CPC comes thru the middle to win.

Thats the reality Maple

[maplesyrup]

Polls will be out I presume after one week of campaigning, and we will see who is right and who is wrong.

If BC is any indication we could be in for a major surprise in this election.

BTW This may well be an Environics poll, not an EKOS poll, and the results are even better for the NDP:

NDP 36%

Cons 34%

Libs 27%

[falling leaf]

Now Maple you have gone off the deep end. How is the NDP going to get more seats in Ontario then the CPC

I agree there is no way in hell NDP will get to lead this country! You have lost it Maplesyrup. Like a snow ball in Hell not melting.

I loved Tommy Douglas as a family friend ,but I am sure today he would agree with me.

He was prolife for one thing . He would never have agreed with alot of the things Jack Layton stands for today.

He would never support anyone who would break the laws like the HEU .

He was a honest man I don't think Jack Layton is !

[maplesyrup]

The next polls will show the NDP closing the gap with the Cons.

I know this is very upsetting to the right wingers, but you have to remeber the NDP represents the average Canadian.

[Kliege]

Another Pipe Dream Maple. NDP represents no one but themselves. By the way what riding are you in Maple?

Im in Mississauga South, this is one of the high income ridings in 905 so the NDP isn't really a factor here but i expect there vote to go up some.

[Alliance Fanatic]

Yeah the NDP represents that average Canadian, as long as your not a white male, middle class Canadian. If you are then your a nazi.

[Hjalmar]

After today's announcement the NDP are dead in the water.. no one could possibly take them seriously any more. Jack Layton is yesterdays man and totally out of touch with reality. By the way, it is rumored that he is connected to the mafia - is there any truth to this?

However he will certainly help the Conservatives because every additional vote he gets in this election is coming from the Liberals.

[BigGunner]

A word about voter concentrations in BC..

Liberals enjoy support in affleunt areas of Vancouver. Such as the west side, Richmond, Delta, possibly even the North Shore.

Conservative support is concentrated in BC's Bible-Belt of the Fraser Valley, other uber-wealthy areas, and farming country (whats left of it) in the lower mainland (Abbotsford, Chilliwack, West Vancouver), plus Kelowna area and the far north around the Peace River part of BC.

NDP support is concentrated on Vancouver Island, east side of Vancouver, and parts of the interior of BC (Kamloops, Skeena).

That puts a handful of suburban Vancouver and Victoria up for grabs as swing seats.

This is also why the conservatives are in trouble.

While if they poll around 27-29% federally, they can still lose seats. The Alliance and its huge concentration of support was miles ahead of anyone in 2000...it scored a near 50% popular vote in BC. If polls put the conservatives in BC at 35%, its a shocking loss of 15 points, and nearly all of it comes from its NDP pick ups from the 1993 campaign. But if polls are true, and the 15% that left the conservatives to support the NDP, that would only put the NDP at 26%...in other words, Layton has grabbed some swing support and left-ish liberals too. 36% of BC voting NDP is the kind of pounding that Ed Broadbent delivered to Mulroney in 1988.

[Slavik44]

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The Bloc had 52 per cent support among Quebec respondents, while the Liberals were next with 35 per cent. The Conservatives and NDP were well back at at eight per cent and three per cent, respectively.

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this has nothign on the surface to do with B.C, it has to do with quebec; but i want to make a point with it. Just a few days a go, maybe a week, there was a post that suggested the cons were at 10% in quebec and the NDP was at 15% and in less then 7 days(?) the NDP have lsot 13% of their support in quebec. The other alternative is that whiel the error margine of a national poll is normally with in 3% of peoples opinions on a whole, it cannot be used to acurately determine regional swing, and the error margin by region is much higher then 3%. Well either that or quebec is a political hotspot where people are palying a game of muscial chairs this election; hey thats kinda like B.C. So in the end it may be a bit of both but to read a NDP sweep of B.C is a foolish. Just a while ago when the cons were at 35-40% in B.C people commented hwo we were in trobule in B.C and may not even get 20 seats. The NDP now has 36% and we ae told to expect the NDP to sweep B.C. yeah right......................

[Kliege]

Looking at the 2 main parties competing with the Conservatives:

A.Liberals

Most polls show the Federal Liberals with a narrow lead in a 3 way race in the province. There has been one poll (the Compass) poll that showed the Conservatives in front. But, it was based on a sample size similar to all the other polls, and received far too much press attention. The Vancouver Sun/Province pushing stories for the Consevatives? Wouldn't be a surprise.

The Liberals obviously started out after Paul Martin became leader fairly strong in B.C, combining their support in the 1990's (around 28% in the 1993, 1997 and 2000 elections) with personal support for Mr. Martin.

The Liberals have obviously taken a number of hits that have resulted in a decline in support for the party, but as I said earlier, still narrowly lead according to most polls.

But, how would that translate into seats. My guess is that if Paul Martin runs a strong campaign, the Liberals could narrowly win the most number of votes in B.C, but still come easily 3rd in seats. The Liberal vote is far too evenly spread out. In the redistributed 2000 election results, the Liberals received almost as many votes in the urban interior (Kelowna 24.0%) as the semi rural Vancouver Island North (Vancouver Island North 25.0%) as Greater Vancouver (Port Moody-Westwood-Coquitlam 29.4%)

These are the only ridings that I see the Liberals as having concentrated enough support to win.

1.Vancouver Centre

2.Vancouver-Quadra

3.Vancouver South

4.Vancouver-Kingsway

5.Richmond

6.Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam (2nd tier race)

7.North Vancouver

8.West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast (2nd tier race)

9.Newton-North Delta

10.Fleetwood-Port Kells

11.Surrey North (2nd tier race)

12.Victoria

13.Saanich-Gulf Islands

14.Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

15.Skeena-Bulkley Valley

16.Kamloops-Thompson (2nd tier race)

B.NDP

With NDP support doubling or trippling from the last election, I think you have to look at all the ridings of traditional NDP strength for this election:

1.Vancouver-Centre

2.Vancouver-East

3.Vancouver-Kingsway

4.Burnaby-Douglas

5.Burnaby-New Westminster

6.New Westminster-Coquitlam

7.Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam (2nd tier race)

8.Surrey North

9.Victoria

10.Saanich-Gulf Islands (2nd tier race)

11.Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

12.Nanaimo-Cowichan

13.Nanaimo-Alberni

14.Skeena-Bulkley Valley

15.Kamloops-Thompson

Safe Conservative ridings

1.(South) Delta-Richmond East. The Liberals will likely be competitive in the Richmond part of the riding, but South Delta is very Conservative.

2.White Rock-South Surrey-Cloverdale The Liberals think they have a chance in this riding because the Conservatives have nominated a strong social conservative. But, Cloverdale is very socially conservative.

3.Langley

4.Abbotsford

5.Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon

6.Cariboo-Prince George

7.Prince George-Peace River

8.Kootenay-Columbia (the Kootenays use to be traditional NDP territory, but the Conservative M.P, Jim Abbott, is very popular, also East Kootenay is less of an NDP area than West Kootenay)

9.Kelowna

10.Okanagan-Coquihalla

11.North Okanagan-Shuswap

12.Dewdney-Allouette

13.Southern Interior

14. Vancouver North Island The riding has very different demographics than it had 20-40 years ago. It is a much older more conservative riding due to an influx of older retirees (the stereotype retiree from Alberta has a lot of truth to it). It has been designated as one of Canada's top 3 retirement destinations. This should mean that the NDP can't necessarily look to the past history to say they have a chance in the riding.

[maplesyrup]

By the way, it is rumored that he is connected to the mafia - is there any truth to this?

No truth to that, but it is rumoured Stephen Harper is being funded by the US Republican Party - is that right?

[August1991]

My understanding is that the NDP is funded as a branch of a Korean party.