Canadian Political Polls

[nicky10013]

With Harper naming John Baird as House Leader, I'm not sure that he doesn't want an election.

Yep. I've been hearing late fall.

[ToadBrother]

Yep. I've been hearing late fall.

Oh come on, we've been hearing "just around the corner" since the 2008 prorogation. IF those polling numbers hold, no one is going to pull the plug on this Parliament.

[Dave_ON]

Oh come on, we've been hearing "just around the corner" since the 2008 prorogation. IF those polling numbers hold, no one is going to pull the plug on this Parliament.

I don't think it is at all outside the realm of reality to say they could even make it full term to Oct 2012. That is if Mr. Harper remembers the fixed election date law and doesn't push for the full 5 years.

[Shakeyhands]

Oh come on, we've been hearing "just around the corner" since the 2008 prorogation. IF those polling numbers hold, no one is going to pull the plug on this Parliament.

Ummm.... so yeah, there would have been an election then wouldn't there???

[nicky10013]

Oh come on, we've been hearing "just around the corner" since the 2008 prorogation. IF those polling numbers hold, no one is going to pull the plug on this Parliament.

The diffference is the people you know versus the people I know.

[Smallc]

With the naming of Baird as House Leader, I take it as a sign that Harper has decided he's done cooperating with the opposition. Whether or not they want an election, I can see it as a possibility going forward.

[nicky10013]

With the naming of Baird as House Leader, I take it as a sign that Harper has decided he's done cooperating with the opposition. Whether or not they want an election, I can see it as a possibility going forward.

Yeah I don't disagree. His lack of will for any kind of compromise over the census fits that pattern pretty well, as well.

[Keepitsimple]

The diffference is the people you know versus the people I know.

As things stand right now - at this very moment - would you encourage the Liberal Party to prepare to pull the plug at the first opportunity?

[nicky10013]

As things stand right now - at this very moment - would you encourage the Liberal Party to prepare to pull the plug at the first opportunity?

At this moment, yes. Things can change and the house won't resume sitting for another month. If the CPC is still being hammered in the editorial pages like it is today come September and the polls remain tight (within a couple of points) I'd recommend pulling the plug.

I mean, you can't really get much better headlines than, "Is Harper Shuffling Deck Chairs on the Titanic?" From the country's most respected national paper.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/is-harper-just-shuffling-deck-chairs-on-the-titanic/article1664093/

“For Libs, the key is that they have been within striking distance of the Tories, reinforced by a solid lead positioning among federalist parties in Quebec [i.e. the federalist alternative to Harper] and strong second choice positioning among Green and NDP voters in the rest of the country,” Mr. Apps told The Globe in an email breaking down the results.

“The Tory problem is not simply that a majority does not seem likely and has not been likely for a long time,” he said. “In fact, the consistent message of the polling is that a significantly reduced minority is the most probable result, with the trend being negative over eight months of this year.”

Mr. Graves suggests, too, that the opposition parties, given these numbers, might want to strike earlier than later. “There is more collective upside now for the opposition parties to go than to stick with the status quo – that and the fact that this Parliament is well past its best before shelf life.

“These guys really can't stand each other,” the pollster added. “Given a collective upside, and a good opportunity , the opposition will bring the government down. And the always overstated blame for authoring an ‘early’ election is a total non factor.”

[Smallc]

As things stand right now - at this very moment - would you encourage the Liberal Party to prepare to pull the plug at the first opportunity?

I would. Now is the time....as long as Ignatieff is ready.

[nicky10013]

I would. Now is the time....as long as Ignatieff is ready.

From what I hear, the party has paid off all it's past election debt and has even enough to spend to the federal limit. The only thing missing is a platform. I've been saying this for months, it needs to be released much sooner rather than later. They have a good process from which they're going to be accepting policy to form the platform from the local riding associations, but it's drawn out over the space of the next year. They really need to get it down to a couple of months and get out a redbook ASAP.

[ToadBrother]

As things stand right now - at this very moment - would you encourage the Liberal Party to prepare to pull the plug at the first opportunity?

If they could, they should, but they can't. Mid-summer polls are about as useful as deep freezers at the South Pole, and Harper, by his latest comments, is keenly aware of Tory vulnerability and will be making his best show to argue against an election.

[nicky10013]

If they could, they should, but they can't. Mid-summer polls are about as useful as deep freezers at the South Pole, and Harper, by his latest comments, is keenly aware of Tory vulnerability and will be making his best show to argue against an election.

I think you're giving Harper too much credit.

[capricorn]

The only thing missing is a platform.... They really need to get it down to a couple of months and get out a redbook ASAP.

Listening to Ignatieff, the platform is beginning to come into focus.

- eliminate the corporate tax cut

- supports the oil sands (except if he's in Quebec)

- against selling asbestos to China

- put Canadian food on Canadian plates

- high speed internet in rural communities across Canada

- some non-combat role in Afghanistan post 2011

- more arts funding (especially in Quebec)

- maintain CBC funding

- fund Canadians to work and study abroad

- satellite campuses of post-secondary institutions in smaller towns

etc.

Edit: almost forgot - canning the F-35 purchase.

That's what came immediately to mind. Ignatieff will do all this by ensuring that the Liberals are at the very, very exact centre of Canadian politics.

“We are the progressive, reforming centre of Canada. I can’t emphasize how much we are in the centre,”

http://www.calgarysun.com/news/Stampede/2010/07/10/14671501.html

Edited August 6, 2010 by capricorn

[wyly]

With the naming of Baird as House Leader, I take it as a sign that Harper has decided he's done cooperating with the opposition. Whether or not they want an election, I can see it as a possibility going forward.

there will need to be another issue that damages the conservatives or strengthens the liberals or a combination of the two...I suspect the NDP and Bloc will be voting against the government at every opportunity now...IMO the liberals would be happy forming a minority government with NDP support if not a formal coalition

[wyly]

If they could, they should, but they can't. Mid-summer polls are about as useful as deep freezers at the South Pole, and Harper, by his latest comments, is keenly aware of Tory vulnerability and will be making his best show to argue against an election.

time of year isn't important as long as it's statistically accurate...

[Smallc]

Edit: almost forgot - canning the F-35 purchase.

Putting aside some of your other mischaracterizations, that's not what he said, even though I don't agree with him.

[wyly]

Putting aside some of your other mischaracterizations, that's not what he said, even though I don't agree with him.

can the F35? he's got my vote....

[Smallc]

can the F35? he's got my vote....

He didn't say that. He said they would review the purchase and put it out for tender.

[wyly]

He didn't say that. He said they would review the purchase and put it out for tender.

tendering is a good idea...but once the price tag climbs to the estimated 150m(or more) per unit it'll be canned...

either way he is safe on the issue he doesn't piss anyone off who has a hard on for the plane and he makes everyone happy with a tender...after an election which will come before a contract is due to be signed in 2013 the price will have climbed to such a height that he can safely can it...

Edited August 6, 2010 by wyly

[capricorn]

He didn't say that. He said they would review the purchase and put it out for tender.

A political dogfight has broken out once again between the Liberals and Conservatives over military aircraft.

This time the Liberals are vowing to put a halt one way or the other to the Harper government’s plans for a $16 billion, 20-year “sole-sourced contract” to build a new generation of jet fighters.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/836142

Are Ignatieff and the Liberals on the same page here or not?

[Smallc]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/836142

Are Ignatieff and the Liberals on the same page here or not?

Did you read any further down the article?...did you read the words in the "" in the line that you quoted? I suppose, if you want to be technical, he said he'd put the breaks on this particular purchase arrangement.

Edited August 6, 2010 by Smallc

[ToadBrother]

time of year isn't important as long as it's statistically accurate...

Time of year is important if you can't topple the government. Parliament has to actually be sitting for a vote of no confidence. Other than that, the Prime Minister is the sole arbiter of when an election gets called.

[wyly]

Time of year is important if you can't topple the government. Parliament has to actually be sitting for a vote of no confidence. Other than that, the Prime Minister is the sole arbiter of when an election gets called.

that's true but it doesn't disqualify a summer poll if it is done properly...

[ToadBrother]

that's true but it doesn't disqualify a summer poll if it is done properly...

I'm not saying the poll isn't informative, I'm saying it's presently useless for the purposes of producing an election. And so far we have no evidence that the Tories won't bounce back from it. They've been this close to flipping with the Liberals before and have somehow managed to beat back up and gain a few point lead before.