Canadian Political Polls

[msdogfood]

With so much to come out about CPC gaffes and misteps during an election run, I'm not sure you'll be singing the same tune once the reality hits. There will be no CPC majority and Harper will be forced out. The man just isn't seen as trustworthy.

Than thare is the G20 desaster to.... Lawsuits.

[msdogfood]

Than thare is the G20 disaster to.... Lawsuits.

Than there is the rubber bullets too!!

[msdogfood]

opines?????.

[msdogfood]

With so much to come out about CPC gaffes and misteps during an election run, I'm not sure you'll be singing the same tune once the reality hits. There will be no CPC majority and Harper will be forced out. The man just isn't seen as trustworthy.

yep so true!!

did anyone see the lastd Poll data out today??

CPC 29% libs 28% WOW!! ekoes.

[Wild Bill]

yep so true!!

did anyone see the lastd Poll data out today??

CPC 29% libs 28% WOW!! ekoes.

Not sure what this poll means. I can understand the drop in Tory fortunes. Incumbents always drop in support over the summer. People are more interested in beer and barbeques than politics right now.

I keep noting how the Liberals never seem to pick up any of the support the Tories lose! Ignatieff doesn't seem to have advanced at all in the polls, after all this time.

I'm not sure what this means overall. It may mean that people are ticked off with the lot of them! We just can't bring ourselves to get excited over any of the choices!

That may be the case, but when the writ is dropped we will have no choice but to vote for SOMEBODY! That means people will have to hold their noses and make some kind of choice. Harper's support seems a bit up and down but usually it is well above that of Ignatieff's. As I've often said, it's not enough to knock an incumbent choice. You also have to provide a better looking alternative. If he can't manage even a trivial increase in the polls, would that alternative be Ignatieff?

What if they held an election and nobody came?

[eyeball]

I'm not sure what this means overall. It may mean that people are ticked off with the lot of them! We just can't bring ourselves to get excited over any of the choices!

I think a combination of the Conservatives seeming disdain for collecting statistics plus their own use of those same statistics to make a case for the government spending billions on crime in the face of statistics that say crime is falling...

It's enough to make anyone's head explode and that's what's hurt the Cons in the short term. There'll soon be some pedophile released or soft sentence handed down to some thug and they'll be right back on top.

I keep noting how the Liberals never seem to pick up any of the support the Tories lose!

Be careful what you wish for, that way madness seems to lie too.

What if they held an election and nobody came?

We'd have no good excuse not to start making some BIG fundamental changes to the way we govern ourselves.

I think Canadians are soon going to resemble those proverbial old vultures who are running out of patience. About goddamn time too I'd say.

Edited August 5, 2010 by eyeball

[nicky10013]

Not sure what this poll means. I can understand the drop in Tory fortunes. Incumbents always drop in support over the summer. People are more interested in beer and barbeques than politics right now.

I keep noting how the Liberals never seem to pick up any of the support the Tories lose! Ignatieff doesn't seem to have advanced at all in the polls, after all this time.

I'm not sure what this means overall. It may mean that people are ticked off with the lot of them! We just can't bring ourselves to get excited over any of the choices!

That may be the case, but when the writ is dropped we will have no choice but to vote for SOMEBODY! That means people will have to hold their noses and make some kind of choice. Harper's support seems a bit up and down but usually it is well above that of Ignatieff's. As I've often said, it's not enough to knock an incumbent choice. You also have to provide a better looking alternative. If he can't manage even a trivial increase in the polls, would that alternative be Ignatieff?

What if they held an election and nobody came?

With the exception that the summer always hurts the government, most of this is true. I think it's more a dissatisfaction with everyone than anything else.

I also think you're coming at this from the wrong point of reference. Sure Ignatieff isn't gaining in the polls, but it's because he isn't being followed as closely as he would be in a campaign. Indeed, since the December prorogation, Harper has lost about on average 10% of the popular vote. About 13% are undecided. The real question here is that after the second prorogation, the G8/G20, 16 billion on a no sourced contract, ideological stances that make absolutely no sense in terms of prisons and the census, are those 13% coming back to the Conservatives? I'd say a few percent would, but if those 10% break elsewhere, it's game over for Harper. Most people who would vote CPC really only have one other choice. THey're not going to move to the NDP or the Bloc. They're going to flow right into the Liberal Party.

[Wild Bill]

Most people who would vote CPC really only have one other choice. THey're not going to move to the NDP or the Bloc. They're going to flow right into the Liberal Party.

Well, you may be right but there's no way I'd risk any money on those predictions!

First off, if Ignatieff has slid so far in the polls, stayed as low as he can go and yet would jump up when an election campaign starts to win the election it would be a historic first! It would be like the guy with no legs surprising everyone by winning the footrace. WAY too much of a long shot for my money!

Second, it would also be a historic first for Liberals to pull big numbers away from the Tory party. Tory supporters consistently are the most loyal. I suspect that is because most of them are like me, in that they don't love the Tories so much as they have no respect for the Liberals! Again, I'm holding onto my money.

Sooner or later the election will be called and we will see what happens. In the meantime, I think you are letting your wishes cloud your perspective.

[Keepitsimple]

Clever fellow that Harper. Do you think he's manufacturing issues that nobody really cares about on election day (if they actually care about them now)......just to make the Liberals think they should force an election? The only thing that will really matter come an election is the management of the economy - all the other stuff is just noise. Meanwhile, the backroom boys still want to get rid of Ignatieff so they would encourage bringing down the Tories. Interesting.

[nicky10013]

Well, you may be right but there's no way I'd risk any money on those predictions!

First off, if Ignatieff has slid so far in the polls, stayed as low as he can go and yet would jump up when an election campaign starts to win the election it would be a historic first! It would be like the guy with no legs surprising everyone by winning the footrace. WAY too much of a long shot for my money!

Second, it would also be a historic first for Liberals to pull big numbers away from the Tory party. Tory supporters consistently are the most loyal. I suspect that is because most of them are like me, in that they don't love the Tories so much as they have no respect for the Liberals! Again, I'm holding onto my money.

Sooner or later the election will be called and we will see what happens. In the meantime, I think you are letting your wishes cloud your perspective.

My wishes are clouding my perspective? I'm not the one whose trying to portray a 10 point drop in the polls as some kind of victory. IN the case of keepitsimple, some kind of strategum that will lead to (hilariously) a majority.

Firstly, Ignatieff's lowest number in the polls (in an outlier) was 23%. The last ekos numbers he was at 26% so he's gained almost 3 points.

Secondly, it absolutely would not be a historic first that the Liberals would take votes from Tory supporters.

[Wild Bill]

My wishes are clouding my perspective? I'm not the one whose trying to portray a 10 point drop in the polls as some kind of victory. IN the case of keepitsimple, some kind of strategum that will lead to (hilariously) a majority.

Firstly, Ignatieff's lowest number in the polls (in an outlier) was 23%. The last ekos numbers he was at 26% so he's gained almost 3 points.

Secondly, it absolutely would not be a historic first that the Liberals would take votes from Tory supporters.

It's only one poll! In the middle of the summer! And you're calling a 3% gain for Ignatieff enough to win the next election?!!!

I'll remind you of this about the end of September!

[nicky10013]

It's only one poll! In the middle of the summer! And you're calling a 3% gain for Ignatieff enough to win the next election?!!!

I'll remind you of this about the end of September!

When did I ever say he's going to win? When did I ever make any prognostication about any party? I'm just saying that these numbers look a lot better for the opposition than they do the government. A LOT better.

[Jack Weber]

It's only one poll! In the middle of the summer! And you're calling a 3% gain for Ignatieff enough to win the next election?!!!

I'll remind you of this about the end of September!

I agree it's a little premature to crow about anything...I'm not sure I'd crow about anything Mr.Ignatieff does...

But it say a little about the inabiilty of Mr.Harper,and the Conservative Party,to make any serious gains when the ineptitude of the opposition has probably handed him a majority on a silver platter.

[Smallc]

I agree it's a little premature to crow about anything...I'm not sure I'd crow about anything Mr.Ignatieff does...

But it say a little about the inabiilty of Mr.Harper,and the Conservative Party,to make any serious gains when the ineptitude of the opposition has probably handed him a majority on a silver platter.

Exactly. I support this government off and on...and I don't support them right now. There's too much going on, between wing nut ministers, the cancelling of the census to play to a tiny libertarian base, the attempt to change the channel with a law and order bill every time things don't go your way, the release of the retarded press releases attacking Liberals over Russian planes coming too close.....it's all a bit too much.

[ToadBrother]

I agree it's a little premature to crow about anything...I'm not sure I'd crow about anything Mr.Ignatieff does...

But it say a little about the inabiilty of Mr.Harper,and the Conservative Party,to make any serious gains when the ineptitude of the opposition has probably handed him a majority on a silver platter.

I've long said it wasn't so much the strength of the Tories as much as the weakness of the Liberals. While I'll wait and see what the next poll or two says before saying the Tories have screwed themselves, one has to wonder if the clearly ideologically-driven attacks on Stats Can have tipped it away from them. The Tories seem tolerated providing they don't get too ambitious with their powers or too ideological.

At any rate, it's summer time, so to some degree it doesn't count. Still, if we go into Fall in a dead heat, it's going to probably mean some backtracking. Of course Harper's a clever enough guy that he lets his stooges like Clement burn in the frying pan.

[ToadBrother]

It's only one poll! In the middle of the summer! And you're calling a 3% gain for Ignatieff enough to win the next election?!!!

I'll remind you of this about the end of September!

The poll in and of itself is probably of no great value, but it is part of a trend of falling Tory support. They have some serious problems, and more importantly in some key areas. They are likely as far away from a majority as they've ever been, and if the Liberals can gain some ground, it could put the Tory government in jeopardy. That being said, I have absolutely no confidence in Iggy's capacity to seize this sort of an opportunity. He has proven an abject failure.

[Smallc]

While I'll wait and see what the next poll or two says before saying the Tories have screwed themselves, one has to wonder if the clearly ideologically-driven attacks on Stats Can have tipped it away from them.

That's exactly what it's about. On one side you have the government, and on the other side, all of the experts. Usually, they're at least evenly split, but here, they're all against the government. I would think that the public is smart enough to figure this out.

[Jack Weber]

The poll in and of itself is probably of no great value, but it is part of a trend of falling Tory support. They have some serious problems, and more importantly in some key areas. They are likely as far away from a majority as they've ever been, and if the Liberals can gain some ground, it could put the Tory government in jeopardy. That being said, I have absolutely no confidence in Iggy's capacity to seize this sort of an opportunity. He has proven an abject failure.

I watched Craig Oliver this afternoon say that this is really a continuation of a trend that started for the Tories after the last prorogation.Essentially,their longterm plan for that has completely backfired..

No bump in the polls during.

Little to no appreciable "Olympic Bounce".

Lot's of ideological BS over the last few months that seems to be slowly turning people off.

Now,these people are not going to the Liberals en masse,if that were the case the Tories would be in huge trouble.But it says something that the Tories,facing the weakest oppposition in years,are so inept they cannot gain ground.

Edited August 5, 2010 by Jack Weber

[Jack Weber]

I should also say that I saw Mr.Harper's little speech this afternoon,and I noticed the Tory scare tactic du jour in full force...

Mr.Harper described the opposition as "The Coalition Forces" or "The Coalition Opposition"

I suspect that rhtoric will be ratcheted up in the next few weeks...

[nicky10013]

The poll in and of itself is probably of no great value, but it is part of a trend of falling Tory support. They have some serious problems, and more importantly in some key areas. They are likely as far away from a majority as they've ever been, and if the Liberals can gain some ground, it could put the Tory government in jeopardy. That being said, I have absolutely no confidence in Iggy's capacity to seize this sort of an opportunity. He has proven an abject failure.

Every time someone says Ignatieff is an abject failure is in itself a gift. Whether the party or the Canadian public like it or not, he's going to be around to fight the next election. For a politician, there is nothing better than rock bottom expectations. My opinion is he's going to surprise a LOT of people. That being said, the problem with low expectations is sometimes you do meet them. Only time will tell what it will be.

[nicky10013]

Now,these people are not going to the Liberals en masse,if that were the case the Tories would be in huge trouble.But it says something that the Tories,facing the weakest oppposition in years,are so inept they cannot gain ground.

They haven't gone to the Liberals en masse because the Liberals haven't put out their platform yet and the public has nothing to judge them by. If the party can come out with a sensible platform, combined with Igantieff's speaking ability, who knows where the 13% of undecided voters are going to head.

[capricorn]

Now,these people are not going to the Liberals en masse,if that were the case the Tories would be in huge trouble.

What I see in the EKOS poll is that some Conservatives are going to the Liberals and some Liberals are going to the NDP. That's the only way to explain why the Liberal numbers have not overtaken the Conservative numbers. In other words, given the drop in support for the Conservatives, why aren't the Liberals in the lead?

[ToadBrother]

I should also say that I saw Mr.Harper's little speech this afternoon,and I noticed the Tory scare tactic du jour in full force...

Mr.Harper described the opposition as "The Coalition Forces" or "The Coalition Opposition"

I suspect that rhtoric will be ratcheted up in the next few weeks...

Well, it may still have some play, but I think the British Coalition has seriously damaged the Tories' ability to argue that such things can't work. Not that I was ever a supporter of the Liberal-NDP-Block coalition, not because of idiotic and invalid arguments about coupes or evil separatists seizing power (Harper had no problem trying to make a pact with them when he was gunning to shoot down the Martin government, and certainly the Bloc has had considerable input in legislation during the Tory minority), but rather because I think it would be a Frankenstein's monster. But the fact that the mother of all Westminster Parliaments has a formal coalition that, so far, has actually done pretty impressively and managed to keep a good deal of public support really does undermine the Tory talking points. So yes, we'll get a lot of anti-coalition talk as the Tories become more vulnerable.

I really do think this is part of a trend. The Tories damaged themselves with the second prorogation, and in the end, it did nothing to solve the core problem of the Afghan prison issue. It was an idiotic waste of political capital, and they're just not getting the bumps they expected. As I often say, Harper is too much the tactician, and is demonstrating how you can, in the process of beating your opponents, outwit yourself. The only thing that's keeping the Tories in government right now is Iggy, and if he ever gets a brain, or if the Liberals finally tire of him and put someone in who can take on Harper, the Tories are out. Of course, it's not as if there is a lot of people in the Liberal ranks that seem to fill that bill. The Tories are safe only because the Liberals are still a disaster area.

[ToadBrother]

They haven't gone to the Liberals en masse because the Liberals haven't put out their platform yet and the public has nothing to judge them by. If the party can come out with a sensible platform, combined with Igantieff's speaking ability, who knows where the 13% of undecided voters are going to head.

Now would be the bloody time to do that. But I really doubt that Iggy has the wherewithall to capitalize on Tory weakness. If he could have, he would have done it a year ago. For all the Tory faltering in the polls, I see little or no evidence of the Liberals picking up the slack. All I see is further signals that Canadians dislike both parties, at the moment apparently in nearly equal numbers.

[ToadBrother]

Every time someone says Ignatieff is an abject failure is in itself a gift. Whether the party or the Canadian public like it or not, he's going to be around to fight the next election. For a politician, there is nothing better than rock bottom expectations. My opinion is he's going to surprise a LOT of people. That being said, the problem with low expectations is sometimes you do meet them. Only time will tell what it will be.

Well, I have no particularly allegiance to any party, so I don't really give a damn what calling Iggy an abject failure causes. I call 'em as I see 'em, and I see a leader who literally had Harper on the ropes a year ago after the second prorogation and just let it fall through his fingers. Even in key battles, in particular the Privileges debate, Iggy basically stood aside, rather than taking the lead. He could have defined himself as a leader, instead he was quite happy to sit on the edge of the frame.

I imagine you're right he will be around to fight the next election, mainly because there are no obvious replacements, but he's an anchor, pure and simple.