Kliege Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 am no pundit, far from it, but here's my 2 cents. In the election we will have 4 possible outcomes: Liberal majority. With the Libs polling about 40%, this is a very distinct possibility. In that scenario they lose a few seats in Ontario to the CPC and NDP, a few more to the Bloc but hang on for a 155-165 seat majority. In that case it will be business a usual: a do-nothing, aimless, purely reactive government. Watch for them to kill the Adscam inquiry and probably try to remove Auditor General Sheila Fraser, their most effective critic (the campaign to calumniate Fraser has already started). Liberal minority. If the libs support slips to about 35-36% this will happen. This will be the best outcome for all lefties! With the NDP acting as guard dogs, this may turn out into a decent government, provided they don't go full blast into socialist mode (most Canadians are small-c conservative, no matter their political affiliation). In that latter case they'll pave the way for a CPC majority in 2008. CPC minority. Unlikely, and unworkable. The CPC may get piecemeal support from other parties (like the BQ on provincial rights) but such a gov't won't last long. CPC majority. Very unlikely, but not impossible. If Harper scores a knockout punch on Martin in the TV debates (like Mulroney did to Turner), it could happen. For that to occur the CPC needs to clean up the West, take at least 60 seats in Ontario and a score in the Atlantic. Such a government would bring significant change to Canada but could be hampered by a Liberal-heavy bureaucracy. Now for some predictions. I suspect the Libs will have a bad campaign (the fact they go negative at the start indicates their desperation and lack of focus), but not a collapse. The CPC and NDP will both run strong campaigns, and bumbling, awkward Martin will not look good in the debates. Atlantic: Not much will change there. NL Lib-5 CPC-2 PEI Lib-3 PEI-1 NS Lib-5 CPC-3 NDP-3 NB Lib-6 CPC-3 NDP-1 Quebec: The BQ will score big; Adscam will play a role, but also disenchantment with the Liberal provincial government. BQ-47 Lib-28 Ontario: The CPC will probably take most of the seats won by the provincial Tories in the last election (including my home area, narrowly won by the Libs against the CA in 2000). The Ontario Liberals are already unpopular and the Libs will feel the sting, no matter what the polls say. Lib-73 CPC-24 NDP-9 Manitoba/Saskatchewan: It depends on how a Layton-led NDP sells there. With the provincial legislatures already NDP, I suspect the populist vote may just go CPC. MB CPC-6 NDP-5 Lib-3 SK CPC-11 NDP-2 Lib-1 Alberta: The CPC will be a juggernaut there with local boy Harper at the helm. Goodbye Annie. CPC-28 BC: The hardest to predict! I suspect when the chips are down it will revert to an old fashion NDP-CPC battle, and the Liberals will be lucky to hang on a couple of seats. CPC-22 NDP-12 Lib-2 North: No big changes there. NDP will take Yukon. Lib-2 NDP-1 Totals Lib - 133 CPC - 102 BQ - 47 NDP - 26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 I'll say: Lib - 150 CPC - 93 BQ - 45 NDP - 20 Lib-NDP minority government. This election is pretty hard to call, though. I predicted the 2000 results within 5 seats for the Libs but this is a much wilder ride. I could be off by 20 seats either way. But I believe the Liberals will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 I'm still going with a CPC minority government. The tough call is Ontario. IMV, the only way to predict is region by region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 Come on, put some numbers down ! The worst that can happen is you'll be wrong... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 I predicted this on 10 March (before the Tory convention). I was assuming Harper would win, which he did and also a spring election: Here are my seat predictions (based on a spring election):Atl CPC 8 Lib 20 NDP 4 Que BQ 55 Lib 20 Ont CPC 45 Lib 51 NDP 10 SK/MB/Terr CPC 14 Lib 2 NDP 15 Alta CPC 28 BC CPC 23 Lib 5 NDP 8 Totals BQ 55 CPC 118 Lib 98 NDP 37 You can see these at the other thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 Kliege, you and I appear largely to agree (although you've got 1 PEI party win...) Where we disagree is Ontario. That's the unknown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twister Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 I'm predicting a conservative minority government, I think many Canadians are fed up and tired of the liberals and want to teach them a lesson. At the same time I don't think voters are willing to give the Conservatives a majority government. Therefore a minority is more likely (the Conservatives can't win a majority this time because of the lack of support in Quebec anyway). Here's my regional predictions: Atlantic Canada (32 Seats) LIB 19 CPC 9 NDP 4 Quebec (75 Seats) BQ 62 LIB 12 CPC 1 Ontario (106 Seats) LIB 55 CPC 43 NDP 8 Manitoba/Saskatchewan (28 Seats) CPC 17 NDP 7 LIB 4 Alberta (28 Seats) CPC 28 BC (36 Seats) CPC 24 NDP 10 LIB 2 North (3 Seats) LIB 2 NDP 1 Total (308 Seats) CPC 122 LIB 94 BQ 62 NDP 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Thinker Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 The conservatives are not going to form a government. The Liberals will get their Majority of 160 or so seats. And if they don't they will form a coalition government with NDP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplesyrup Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 Question: Assuming no majority government, what happens right after the election? What is GG's role? In other words who gets to decide who has opportunity to form government? does GG decide? Is it automatically the party with most number of seats which has first kick at the can, etc.? IS GG, once appointed, supposed to be at arm's length from PM? The reality is there is no possibility for a Liberal - NDP government. Reason being, the NDP are insisting on a PR referendum which the Liberals would never agree to as under PR, the chances of the Liberals ever receiving a majority government again are dim. I predict a Liberal-Conservative coalition government. Neither of these to parties would ever admit publically to such a scenario, however they are much more similiar to each other than what is presently perceived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Thinker Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 The party that wins the most seats forms the government. They can seek a partner to form a coalition with if they wish, if they don't find a coalition partner and try to govern by them selves the Government will eventually suff er a vote of no confidence in the commons, as happened to the PC's in '79. After a government falls the GG can ask the opposition if they want to form a government with another party(although I do not know of a instance when this happens. Otherwise the GG will disolve parliment and another election will be called. The NDP will form a coalition with the liberals if they get the chance, and Harper and Martin will never form a colalition. The Liberals are still closer to the NDP that the conservatives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slavik44 Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 TotalsLib - 133 CPC - 102 BQ - 47 NDP - 26 just the other day i did soemthinking about that...I had the exact same results you did Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 In other words who gets to decide who has opportunity to form government? does GG decide? Is it automatically the party with most number of seats which has first kick at the can, etc.? IS GG, once appointed, supposed to be at arm's length from PM? That may well turn out to be the $64,000 question, and the start of a constitutional crisis. The party that wins the most seats forms the government. They can seek a partner to form a coalition with if they wish, if they don't find a coalition partner and try to govern by them selves the Government will eventually suff er a vote of no confidence in the commons, as happened to the PC's in '79. I don't mean to be impolite but FreeThinker, you're basically wrong. We have not had a coalition government in Canada since the First World War. And there is no strict rule that the party with the most seats wins the government. It is VERY possible that the Tories will win the most seats but the Liberals have more chance of governing with NDP support on key votes. The issue is: Is the GG forced to ask Harper to form a government if the Tories win the most seats? (Ans: I don't think so. After the election, Martin will still be PM and could say that he wants to go to Parliament to see if he still has support. Would the NDP support him in a confidence vote?) If the GG asks Harper to form a government, he could easily take 6 months before calling the House in session. (Incidentally, an ongoing debate in Quebec is whether the BQ would vote with Tories on a confidence motion.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hjalmar Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 The conservatives are not going to form a government. The Liberals will get their Majority of 160 or so seats. And if they don't they will form a coalition government with NDP. That's the scariest scenario of all... Liberals forming a coalition government with the NDP. If memory serves me correctly this is a replica of sorts what happened in the 70's with Pierre Trudeau when he relied on the NDP for support and our country changed to a welfare state that Canada has yet to recover from. Would be a real tragedy if this ever happened again.... good bye Canada!!!! Here was my prediction a month ago: Liberals - 162 Conservatives - 90 Bloc - 45 NDP - 11 I'm now predicting a minority government and it could be either Liberal or Conservative... The televised debate will be crucial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Hardner Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 Liberals - 162Conservatives - 90 Bloc - 45 NDP - 11 Hjalmar ! You're predicting a Liberal majority ? I think it's more likely to happen than a CPC minority government, but I'm surprised that you're not more optimistic about the CPC chances... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted May 23, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 Windsor West-NDP hold Windsor-Tecumesh-NDP hold Possible NDP Pick ups in Ontario Toronto-Danforth Trinity-Spadina Ottawa Centre Davenport Nickel Belt Hamilton Centre Hamilton Mountain Hamilton East -Stoney Creek Beaches-East York Ottawa South Sault Ste. Marie Rainy River Kenora Thunder Bay--Superior North Parkdale--High Park Timmins--James Bay Thunder Bay--Rainy River Carleton-Lanark-CPC hold Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke -CPC hold Perth-Wellington -CPC hold Possible CPC Pick-Up in Ontario Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale Bramalea-Gore-Malton Brampton West Burlington Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge Dufferin-Caledon Halton Mississauga-Brampton South Mississauga-Erindale Mississauga South Mississauga-Streetsville Newmarket-Aurora Niagara Falls Niagara West-Glanbrook Oak Ridges-Markham Oakville Oshawa Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Leeds-Grenville Northumberland-Quinte West Ottawa South Parry Sound-Muskoka Elgin-Middlesex-London Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Kitchener-Conestoga Kitchener-Waterloo London West Oxford Simcoe-North Simcoe Grey Wellington-Halton Hills Its going to be really fun, For the first time since I was able to vote(1994) Canada will have a real election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Thinker Posted May 23, 2004 Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 The Liberals and NDP formed a coalition after the 1972 election. The party that wins the most seats is the party that gets to form the goverment, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kliege Posted May 23, 2004 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2004 I doubt Martin will be in Coalition with Layton, Layton wants P.R thats the main things he wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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