H1N1 "Pandemic"

[Keepitsimple]

On average, 2000-8000 Canadians die each year from Seasonal Flu or complications from it. In the US, an average of 36,000 people die from Seasonal Flu. To date in Canada - including all of 2009, "only" 86 deaths have been attributed to H1N1 - and world wide, just slightly more than 4,000. The initial Mexican "outbreak", was drastically overplayed by the media. They have since extended this into a full-blown crisis where it is not politically correct to downplay this new strain of flu. In fact though, it has proven to be a mild strain of the flu. Much has been said about it affecting the young and the old - but in fact, that's the same risk category as regular seasonal flu. This would have been a perfect time to educate the Canadian public on the severity of regular seasonal flu and how many deaths are attributed to it......but that would ruin a good story, wouldn't it? So certainly - go and get your H1N1 flu shot if you must but heck, it's just the flu.

Most people will recover from influenza within a week or ten days, but some - including those over 65 and adults and children with chronic conditions, such as diabetes and cancer - are at greater risk of more severe complications, such as pneumonia. Between 2 000 and 8 000 Canadians can die of influenza and its complications annually, depending on the severity of the season.

In 2009, CDC published additional estimates of seasonal flu-related deaths comparing different methods, including the methods used in the 2003 JAMA study. The seasons studied included the 1993-94 through the 2002-03 flu seasons [9]. Results from this study showed that during this time period, 36,171 flu-related deaths occurred per year, on average.

Link to Canada Public Health: http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/h1...illance-eng.php

Link to CDC: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_fl...ated_deaths.htm

Edited October 27, 2009 by Keepitsimple

[jdobbin]

In fact though, it has proven to be a mild strain of the flu. Much has been said about it affecting the young and the old - but in fact, that's the same risk category as regular seasonal flu. This would have been a perfect time to educate the Canadian public on the severity of regular seasonal flu and how many deaths are attributed to it......but that would ruin a good story, wouldn't it? So certainly - go and get your H1N1 flu shot if you must but heck, it's just the flu.

I think the Harper government should come out and say that preventing this flu should not be taken if it hurts economic growth.

[wulf42]

I am personally going to wait a bit and see how people react to the vaccine before i get a shot

,with all the media hype you would think it was the black death!

[Shwa]

How on earth could this hurt economic growth? Quite the opposite.

Flu makers have their wares sold; nurses are paid to give out the shots; nevermind the industry and jobs surrounding the flu - the scientists, doctors, researchers, lab animal handlers, people who make that hand sanitizer stuff.. In fact, the more flu - the more employment is what I say. Then there is all the money that goes into making it a news item - reporters, newscasters, camera operators, printing press guys - they all pay their big taxes so the government can buy more flu shots. Wow. When you add it up, flu is big business!

Maybe we need an Ebola scare to turn the recession right around. Actually, we could release Ebola on Wall and Bay streets and we'd all be millionaires! Who needs the lotto when you have the flu in your pocket?

[jdobbin]

How on earth could this hurt economic growth? Quite the opposite.

I was joking when I made the comment.

It was referencing Harper's talk about not doing anything on CO2 if it hurts the economy.

[Topaz]

Sadly, another young person has died from the flu and today, Health Canada , sent out in the mail the info on it. Kinda late isn't it? The fear mongering between why you should get it and why you shouldn't get it is making it very stress for some to decide. I think the government gets a failing grade on getting the word out and like always the Tories are blaming the provinces, since health care belongs to them.

[M.Dancer]

I think the government gets a failing grade on getting the word out and like always the Tories are blaming the provinces, since health care belongs to them.

Is that what you think?

They are probably running them in Tory ridings only. I can't believe they spent 34 million on these ads. What a waste, no wonder there's no money in EI!!

Be so kind to explain how national TV ads run only in Tory ridings

An intensive-care doctor who was on the front lines in hard-hit Winnipeg during the first wave of H1N1 said he's astonished by public ambivalence, and says it's time for authorities to be blunt about the message. "Quite frankly, the fact that people are saying they aren't going to get vaccinated just blows me away because I think it's an absolute no-brainer, especially when you understand what's going on here," Dr. Anand Kumar told a major conference on critical care in Toronto on Monday.

"Do we have media here? I was going to say you have to be an idiot not to get the vaccine, but I won't say that," he told 400 health professionals and a few journalists who let him know they were present.

http://www.healthzone.ca/health/newsfeatur.../article/716547

[wyly]

On average, 2000-8000 Canadians die each year from Seasonal Flu or complications from it. In the US, an average of 36,000 people die from Seasonal Flu. To date in Canada - including all of 2009, "only" 86 deaths have been attributed to H1N1 - and world wide, just slightly more than 4,000. The initial Mexican "outbreak", was drastically overplayed by the media. They have since extended this into a full-blown crisis where it is not politically correct to downplay this new strain of flu. In fact though, it has proven to be a mild strain of the flu. Much has been said about it affecting the young and the old - but in fact, that's the same risk category as regular seasonal flu. This would have been a perfect time to educate the Canadian public on the severity of regular seasonal flu and how many deaths are attributed to it......but that would ruin a good story, wouldn't it? So certainly - go and get your H1N1 flu shot if you must but heck, it's just the flu.

you're deliberately playing dumb and spreading a dangerous myth...posting a link to CDC info on the seasonal flu than ignoring CDC predictions for additional H1N1 fatalities...CDC expects 40% infection rate in the US, so that would apply to Canada as well and death toll of 90,000 due to H1N1 on top of the seasonal flu..this is not a routine seasonal flu it can kill healthy young people quickly...plus a death rate of 1 in 28 pregnant women...

While average seasonal influenza strains typically kill 36,000 Americans each year, 90% of who are seniors, the swine flu has so far affected younger, relatively healthy individuals.

CDC H1N1

if you don't want to take the vaccine no one here cares if you do or not or whether you die or not, but refrain from spreading lies that can kill someone kids with your misinformation...

[Shakeyhands]

had to take my daughter down to emerg last night, seems she has it, though the blood tests and swab will tell us for sure.

Nasty flu, she actually passed out twice ( I was able to catch her... the second time..) and has a wicked high fever. Can't wait for it to make it's way around the rest of the house.

Too bad we weren't able to get the shot before hand.

Wish us luck!

[M.Dancer]

Wish us luck!

Good luck

[ToadBrother]

How on earth could this hurt economic growth? Quite the opposite.

Flu makers have their wares sold; nurses are paid to give out the shots; nevermind the industry and jobs surrounding the flu - the scientists, doctors, researchers, lab animal handlers, people who make that hand sanitizer stuff.. In fact, the more flu - the more employment is what I say. Then there is all the money that goes into making it a news item - reporters, newscasters, camera operators, printing press guys - they all pay their big taxes so the government can buy more flu shots. Wow. When you add it up, flu is big business!

Maybe we need an Ebola scare to turn the recession right around. Actually, we could release Ebola on Wall and Bay streets and we'd all be millionaires! Who needs the lotto when you have the flu in your pocket?

If we had a serious pandemic (ie. the 1918-19 flu outbreak), then you could be looking at a protracted period of time in which a sizable portion of the work force would be unable to function. Worst of all, despite all the precautions, health care workers remain the most vulnerable to such an infection.

[wyly]

If we had a serious pandemic (ie. the 1918-19 flu outbreak), then you could be looking at a protracted period of time in which a sizable portion of the work force would be unable to function. Worst of all, despite all the precautions, health care workers remain the most vulnerable to such an infection.

so you don't think that the %40 infection rate predicted by the CDC is not going to cause serious economic damage?

[wyly]

had to take my daughter down to emerg last night, seems she has it, though the blood tests and swab will tell us for sure.

Nasty flu, she actually passed out twice ( I was able to catch her... the second time..) and has a wicked high fever. Can't wait for it to make it's way around the rest of the house.

Too bad we weren't able to get the shot before hand.

Wish us luck!

I'd take my kids to be vaccinated but the program here has a 6hr wait time, they vastly underestimated how many people want it...but we'll be there the moment the wait lines shorten up...

good luck with your daughter, speaking a MD friend who went through it in summer it can be very unpleasant...

[wulf42]

How many on here plan to take the flu shot?....i am still undecided,

some cheerleader in the U.S. got all messed up after taking a flu shot!

[Wilber]

If we had a serious pandemic (ie. the 1918-19 flu outbreak), then you could be looking at a protracted period of time in which a sizable portion of the work force would be unable to function. Worst of all, despite all the precautions, health care workers remain the most vulnerable to such an infection.

A sizeable proportion of the work force would be eliminated entirely. The 1918 flu killed more people in a year than the Great Plague did in four, an estimated 20 to 40 million. I wonder if those folks would be having the same idiotic debate and what they would have given for an effective vaccine. Lets see, get vaccinated and accept a very low possibility of some side effect or accept a very high probability of getting quite sick with the possible side effect of death. Seems like a no brainer to me.

It seems to me that present generations have no concept of what vaccines have done to increase survival rates. Most folks who were alive in the fifties can remember friends or relatives who were killed or crippled by polio. Childhood diseases like measles and whooping cough could be killers. It wasn't so long ago that smallpox killed millions, sometimes entire populations which had no immunity. When I was younger, proof of an up to date smallpox vaccination was as necessary to travel as a passport is today. Since then the disease has been eradicated by universal vaccination.

Our present good fortune has severely clouded the judgment of many IMO.

On edit: I just found a vaccination book which shows my last smallpox booster. 1978, not so long ago that it was still considered a world threat.

Edited October 27, 2009 by Wilber

[Wilber]

Wish us luck!

Yes, Good Luck indeed. I'm concerned about my grand kids. We've been away but must get hold of our daughter to find out if she and her family are getting vaccinated.

[dcdawg07]

I don't know when it's coming but the seasonal flu has already ravaged my office. I've seen on the news that they aren't quite sure when the vaccine is going to be readily available, which is scary.

[wyly]

A sizeable proportion of the work force would be eliminated entirely. The 1918 flu killed more people in a year than the Great Plague did in four, an estimated 20 to 40 million. I wonder if those folks would be having the same idiotic debate and what they would have given for an effective vaccine. Lets see, get vaccinated and accept a very low possibility of some side effect or accept a very high probability of getting quite sick with the possible side effect of death. Seems like a no brainer to me.

It seems to me that present generations have no concept of what vaccines have done to increase survival rates. Most folks who were alive in the fifties can remember friends or relatives who were killed or crippled by polio. Childhood diseases like measles and whooping cough could be killers. It wasn't so long ago that small pox killed millions, sometimes entire populations which had no immunity. When I was younger, proof of an up to date small pox vaccination was as necessary to travel as a passport is today. Since then the disease has been eradicated by universal vaccination.

Our present good fortune has severely clouded the judgment of many IMO.

Spanish flu death estimates are usually on the low side because there were no records of deaths in undeveloped parts of the world, there are estimates of 100 million dead...we won't see that this round but this flu has similarities to the way Spanish Flu began, it was also quite mild on it's first wave around the globe and didn't become the mass killer until the 2nd time...

my odds of getting sick from the vaccine are about the same as me winning the lotto while the odds of me getting H1N1 are 4 in 10...this a no brainer as you say...

and yes I can recall a kid down my street getting polio and being crippled for life...I also recall all the vaccination programs when I was in school, why can't we do this now? why aren't we protecting our most valuable resource?

[madmax]

I was joking when I made the comment.

No you weren't

[capricorn]

had to take my daughter down to emerg last night, seems she has it, though the blood tests and swab will tell us for sure.

Nasty flu, she actually passed out twice ( I was able to catch her... the second time..) and has a wicked high fever. Can't wait for it to make it's way around the rest of the house.

Too bad we weren't able to get the shot before hand.

Wish us luck!

Sorry to hear about your little one Shakey. I wish you and your family the best to get through what must be very worrying.

[capricorn]

I'd take my kids to be vaccinated but the program here has a 6hr wait time, they vastly underestimated how many people want it...but we'll be there the moment the wait lines shorten up...

Apparently, the clinics are handing out numbers to manage those waiting in line. Some are taking their number then go home and go back to the clinic a couple of hours later. Maybe that's an alternative you could consider until those initial long lines thin down. My concern is what if they run out of the vaccines due to the high demand?

[segnosaur]

The H1N1 flu (along with vaccine issues), has already been discussed in other threads, such as:

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....showtopic=14853

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....showtopic=15051

http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums//index....showtopic=15149

Some people may save themselves some time and effort rehashing things long discussed.

On average, 2000-8000 Canadians die each year from Seasonal Flu or complications from it. In the US, an average of 36,000 people die from Seasonal Flu. To date in Canada - including all of 2009, "only" 86 deaths have been attributed to H1N1 - and world wide, just slightly more than 4,000.

You're right, we have had very few deaths so far.

Problem is, our 'flu season' runs from November to April, so we haven't come anywhere near seeing just how 'bad' this thing can be. And looking at the number of deaths outside of flu season is a little like trying to tell how bad our winter will be by the number of snowstorms we get in August.

Much has been said about it affecting the young and the old - but in fact, that's the same risk category as regular seasonal flu.

Actually, its a little bit different than 'regular seasonal flu'. So far, it seems to be affecting adults and people who would otherwise be 'healthy' a lot more seriously than most seasonal flus. And elderly people seem not to have been as hard it by it (possibly due to immunity obtained from exposure to similar strains decades ago.)

This would have been a perfect time to educate the Canadian public on the severity of regular seasonal flu and how many deaths are attributed to it.

Well, the information about the effects of the seasonal flu is widely reported on each year.

Problem is, even if you did take the time to educate people on the 'regular' flu, there are far too many people who will ignore the information, claiming "I'm healthy I don't need it".

.....but that would ruin a good story, wouldn't it? So certainly - go and get your H1N1 flu shot if you must but heck, it's just the flu.

Yes, its 'just the flu', but its a flu that can have serious consequences (hospitalization or death).

So, here's what's known about the flu so far:

- The version does tend to hit adults harder than seasonal flus (although seniors were probably better off)

- Some of the initial predictions may have been overly-pessimistic

- The version does seem to be a little easier to transmit than most seasonal flus

- The flu vaccine has undergone multiple tests (with no side effects) so it should be considered safe

At this point, we don't know exactly how bad this thing will get, so don't panic, but don't dismiss the issue either.

[wyly]

Apparently, the clinics are handing out numbers to manage those waiting in line. Some are taking their number then go home and go back to the clinic a couple of hours later. Maybe that's an alternative you could consider until those initial long lines thin down. My concern is what if they run out of the vaccines due to the high demand?

my wife is getting her shot today, she has some priority due to her work in healthcare...we'l be looking to taking our kids in a the first opportunity...

I'd be annoyed if there was a shortage, I've seen a number of reports saying Canada would have a surplus and there were plans to send that to countries with a shortage...

[Wilber]

and yes I can recall a kid down my street getting polio and being crippled for life...I also recall all the vaccination programs when I was in school, why can't we do this now? why aren't we protecting our most valuable resource?

I remember them as well. Seemed like a couple of public health nurses would come in and do the whole school in a morning or afternoon. Maybe too much legal butt covering required to do something like that now.

[capricorn]

I'd be annoyed if there was a shortage, I've seen a number of reports saying Canada would have a surplus and there were plans to send that to countries with a shortage...

From a Q and A article on the Globe.

Q: There are 34 million Canadians, so why did we order 50 million doses?

A: Fifty million doses is the equivalent of two doses for 75 per cent of the population. Initially, it was believed two doses of the vaccine would be required to produce immunity, and it takes about six months to produce the vaccine. In the interim, research showed that one dose was sufficient to provide immunity. Excess stock will go to developing countries that cannot afford the H1N1 vaccine.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/techno...article1329448/