Tories making inroads in Toronto: poll

Shady · September 24, 2009

Tories making inroads in Toronto: poll

The EKOS poll, done exclusively for the CBC and released Thursday, shows the Tories with 37 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 29.9 per cent. The New Democratic Party followed with 13.8 per cent, the Green Party with 10.2 per cent and the Bloc Québécois with 9.1 per cent.

The Tories also appear to be making headway in Toronto, having gained the highest level of support in the city since tracking began in May.

The poll shows the Tories leading in Toronto with nearly 42 per cent support, compared with 37 per cent for the Liberals. Although the error margin of 6.2 percentage points, given the smaller sample size, means the gap difference is not statistically significant, the trend suggests the Conservatives have become more competitive in the city.

CBC

Looks like Iggy's bounce in the polls is all but gone. Who knew that Canadian's would sour on an old, creepy looking, American professor. :rolleyes:

jdobbin · September 24, 2009

Looks like Iggy's bounce in the polls is all but gone. Who knew that Canadian's would sour on an old, creepy looking, American professor.

Guess we will hear reasons now why Harper should call a snap election, right?

Not too surprised at the numbers. To some extent they were predicted early in the summer when some analysts looked at when Harper was to get some bounce which many believed was going to be after some of the international stuff planned for fall including the G20 meeting. The other time they mentioned was after the Olympics.

Harper has been out of Ottawa a lot since it opened. That in and of itself raises your numbers.

The big thing in this poll is how much NDP numbers are falling in many places in the country. The Liberal goal of putting them below 10% continues.

capricorn · September 24, 2009

Guess we will hear reasons now why Harper should call a snap election, right?

I would advise the Conservatives to hold off any action to spur an election. An improving economy and the Olympics will provide positive press which will help solidify their support. The next budget provides a better window to introduce measures the opposition could not possibly support.

For a variety of reasons, Ignatieff simply can't seem to reverse the tide of support for the Conservatives. Realistically, his only hope of upsetting the apple cart is a major Conservative scandal.

jdobbin · September 24, 2009

I would advise the Conservatives to hold off any action to spur an election. An improving economy and the Olympics will provide positive press which will help solidify their support. The next budget provides a better window to introduce measures the opposition could not possibly support.

One thing we probably can guess at: Harper doesn't believe in term limits. He will call it when he feels he can win. That would apply even if he had a majority.

For a variety of reasons, Ignatieff simply can't seem to reverse the tide of support for the Conservatives. Realistically, his only hope of upsetting the apple cart is a major Conservative scandal.

This first step was to put pressure on the NDP and in that regard, it has been successful.

M.Dancer · September 24, 2009

Harper doesn't believe in term limits.

What party (who has held power) does?

How many years did King, Trudeau and Chretien serve?

Keepitsimple · September 24, 2009

This first step was to put pressure on the NDP and in that regard, it has been successful.

Be careful what you wish for. If this "strategy" was working the way you'd like, you'd expect the Liberal numbers to go up as the NDP go down. The fact they are not seems to create only two scenarios - either NDP voters are going to the Conservatives (unlikely) or they are going to the Liberals......and if they are going to the Liberals but the Liberal numbers are staying the same, then there are an equal number of Liberals going to the Conservatives.

jdobbin · September 24, 2009

Be careful what you wish for. If this "strategy" was working the way you'd like, you'd expect the Liberal numbers to go up as the NDP go down.

A few analysts said back in the summer that they expected Tory numbers to go up through the summer and into the first weeks of Fall with Harper's international meetings taking stage. It is why some thought that either Harper would call a snap election, trigger one or that the Opposition would make a move.

I expect that with time back in the House in October, we will get a better idea of where things stand unless Harper decides to call a snap election regardless.

The fact they are not seems to create only two scenarios - either NDP voters are going to the Conservatives (unlikely) or they are going to the Liberals......and if they are going to the Liberals but the Liberal numbers are staying the same, then there are an equal number of Liberals going to the Conservatives.

I'm sure votes are floating in a few directions. The Liberals need to push the NDP down below 10% by looking like they are the party to challenge the Tories. It wasn't going to happen by supporting them from here to 2011. In fact, Harper was just as likely to call a snap election as he did last time and blame the Liberals for it anyway.

Shady · September 24, 2009

What party (who has held power) does?
How many years did King, Trudeau and Chretien serve?

Exactly. But Dobbin always holds other political parties to higher standards than he holds his own. And if you notice, he always refers to any election Harper might want as a "snap" election. But when Iggy wants one, it's just referred to as an election.

Keepitsimple · September 24, 2009

Exactly. But Dobbin always holds other political parties to higher standards than he holds his own. And if you notice, he always refers to any election Harper might want as a "snap" election. But when Iggy wants one, it's just referred to as an election.

Oh, quit picking on him. These are difficult times for the Dobber.

jdobbin · September 24, 2009

Exactly. But Dobbin always holds other political parties to higher standards than he holds his own. And if you notice, he always refers to any election Harper might want as a "snap" election. But when Iggy wants one, it's just referred to as an election.

Ignatieff was not the one who introduced term limits. Harper did and promised not to call an election before then. Remember?

Try and keep your eye on the facts here.

If term limits mean nothing, Harper shouldn't have introduced them.

jdobbin · September 24, 2009

Oh, quit picking on him. These are difficult times for the Dobber.

A little disappointed that you feel the need to violate rules about names not to mention personalizing.

It certainly doesn't address the issue of term limits. If they are meaningless, why did Harper introduce them. Didn't he set the standard himself by creating the legislation.

Moonbox · September 24, 2009

Perhaps, but as we all know politicians often set standards for themselves that they can't fulfill.

Promising health care improvements during the Chretien years were 'standards' the Liberals promised to run on. We can see how that turned out. Not raising taxes was a McGuinty promise. We see how that turned out almost immediately after he was elected.

Politicians say a lot of things and a lot of the time do the opposite.

As Shady mentioned before, you seem to hold the other parties to a higher standard than the Liberals. You have a VERY VERY VERY well known history of this on this forum.

Shady · September 24, 2009

A little disappointed that you feel the need to violate rules about names not to mention personalizing.
It certainly doesn't address the issue of term limits. If they are meaningless, why did Harper introduce them. Didn't he set the standard himself by creating the legislation.

Will the Liberals follow that standard?

Bryan · September 24, 2009

A little disappointed that you feel the need to violate rules about names not to mention personalizing.
It certainly doesn't address the issue of term limits. If they are meaningless, why did Harper introduce them. Didn't he set the standard himself by creating the legislation.

You don't even know what term limits means, do you?

Shady · September 24, 2009

You have a VERY VERY VERY well known history of this on this forum.

Well said!

Shady · September 24, 2009

You don't even know what term limits means, do you?

It sounds like he has absolutely no clue.

M.Dancer · September 24, 2009

You don't even know what term limits means, do you?

He does....he should also know that Harper has never proposed term limits for MPs or PMs

madmax · September 24, 2009

Guess we will hear reasons now why Harper should call a snap election, right?
Not too surprised at the numbers.

Well I am. I am surprised enough to say that this is the Poll that gets tossed out. The Conservatives finish 4th and 3rd and distant 2nds in TO and not enough has changed to suggest that they would be anywhere close to getting those numbers. If this was 905, then its plausible if not factual for the time being.

This poll is not reflective of the situation in Liberal TO.

The big thing in this poll is how much NDP numbers are falling in many places in the country. The Liberal goal of putting them below 10% continues

I thought the Liberal Goal was to lead the country.

Shady · September 24, 2009

I thought the Liberal Goal was to lead the country.

Apparently not. Apparently their new goal is to lower support for the NDP, while at the same time, still losing the national elections.

It's funny to hear the things Dobbin comes up with in order to manufacture an excuse.

wulf42 · September 24, 2009

Harper is in the drivers seat the man will get his Majority.........the Liberals?? who were they??

nicky10013 · September 24, 2009

Pre-writ election numbers are meaningless. If they actually did mean something, Kim Campbell would have had a solid majority. You can't count your eggs until they're in the basket.

Edited September 24, 2009 by nicky10013

fellowtraveller · September 24, 2009

Be careful what you wish for. If this "strategy" was working the way you'd like, you'd expect the Liberal numbers to go up as the NDP go down. The fact they are not seems to create only two scenarios - either NDP voters are going to the Conservatives (unlikely) or they are going to the Liberals......and if they are going to the Liberals but the Liberal numbers are staying the same, then there are an equal number of Liberals going to the Conservatives.

Yep. well said.

and the NDP should be vulnerable, the last couple of years has been very hard on one of their mainstays, organized labour. The NDP has failed top protect their constituency from closures and virtual collapse of a few industries.

It won't matter that there was little they could have done.

"what have you done for me lately....."

fellowtraveller · September 24, 2009

Layton better hope that the UAW hasn't contacted Laytons tailor asking for measurements for a leather jacket.....

nicky10013 · September 24, 2009

Yep. well said.
and the NDP should be vulnerable, the last couple of years has been very hard on one of their mainstays, organized labour. The NDP has failed top protect their constituency from closures and virtual collapse of a few industries.

It won't matter that there was little they could have done.

"what have you done for me lately....."

They're not going Conservative, they're going Green.

punked · September 24, 2009

They're not going Conservative, they're going Green.

No they are going Conservative. The green party is one of the most anti union parties in the country. NDPers don't want to see Iggy get into power, he is more pro war then Harper and sense the founding of the Party there has been a large rift between those who are pro war and anit war. The anti war guys will do anything to prevent more blood shed including vote for Harper. That an there are many NDP members in the west who will switch the Conservatives to stop the Liberals from winning. The Liberal narrative has been "we are going to win" and there are people who don't want that. Believe me I know a few.