Manitoba NDP leadership Race

[jbg]

I don't expect an election, but if one comes, the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

Which party wins, NDP?

[Smallc]

I would expect so.

[BubberMiley]

When asked whether he intended to call a snap vote, Selinger said "I have no plans to call a snap election. It is my intention to serve the mandate."

I don't think politicians ever say something if they don't mean it.

[Smallc]

I don't think politicians ever say something if they don't mean it.

Either your being sarcastic or Stephen Harper is a giant exception to the rule.

I don't expect Selinger to call an election.

[madmax]

Probe Research said the earlier the better for the NDP since the glow from the leadership convention and post Doer glow may not burn so bright.

That's funny, I haven't heard anything so stupid since Paul Martin called an election and took his Majority inheritance called an election early to govern as a minority. Never heard such stupid stupid thinking. You have a majority, use it to your benefit and the country/Provinces benefit. Only the leader has changed not all the MPs, MLAs or Mpps etc.

Calling an election in the climate is political suicide. Ask Ignatieff.

[DrGreenthumb]

That's funny, I haven't heard anything so stupid since Paul Martin called an election and took his Majority inheritance called an election early to govern as a minority. Never heard such stupid stupid thinking. You have a majority, use it to your benefit and the country/Provinces benefit. Only the leader has changed not all the MPs, MLAs or Mpps etc.

Calling an election in the climate is political suicide. Ask Ignatieff.

I would have preferred Ashton, his speech at convention was MUCH better than selinger's. That said, of course I will still support the NDP under Selinger as he is a far better option than anything the Conservatives have to offer. There will be no election till the fixed election date. The NDP actually keep their word, unlike Harper's bunch of opportunistic liars. Is there a Liberal party in Manitoba?

[punked]

I would have preferred Ashton, his speech at convention was MUCH better than selinger's. That said, of course I will still support the NDP under Selinger as he is a far better option than anything the Conservatives have to offer. There will be no election till the fixed election date. The NDP actually keep their word, unlike Harper's bunch of opportunistic liars. Is there a Liberal party in Manitoba?

Nope no Liberal party in Manitoba right Dobbin?

Ps there is a Liberal party they got 12% of the vote and have only 2 MLA's. Their leader was MP under Chrétien and did a great job helping screw over EI. I don't think they are the party you want although I dont know if the NDP is either.

[BubberMiley]

Two MLAs is more a partnership than a party.

[jdobbin]

Only the leader has changed not all the MPs, MLAs or Mpps etc.

Calling an election in the climate is political suicide. Ask Ignatieff.

Just letting you know what the pollster said reading the tea leaves.

In Manitoba, Doer was everything. The prediction was that the high numbers Doer commanded would be hard to sustain.

[jdobbin]

I would have preferred Ashton, his speech at convention was MUCH better than selinger's.

There were a few independents and even some people on the right who spoke about Ashton being a man of principle. Some in the blogs even supported him. At first it seemed a bit cynical since I believed it was just mischief in regards to seeing the NDP elect someone who was going to bring defeat to the party. However, after hearing some TV and radio interviews and reading some of the newspaper and blogs from some of the people in question, it appears that many people were sincere that Ashton was the most principled and the most likely to do things as promised.

That said, of course I will still support the NDP under Selinger as he is a far better option than anything the Conservatives have to offer.

He is no Doer. Voter recognition of anyone beyond Doer is poor.

The Conservatives will certainly have to perform better than they did in the last election. However, for the NDP to win a fourth majority, I expect we are going to have to see one of the most exceptional campaigns seen yet in the province. It remains to be seen if Selinger can do that. I watched his mayoral campaign go down in flames so I am not confident.

There will be no election till the fixed election date.

And if there is, I expect some NDPers are going to say it is democratic, or needed or whatever else excuse they can come up with.

The NDP actually keep their word, unlike Harper's bunch of opportunistic liars.

Doer did not keep his word about serving his term.

Is there a Liberal party in Manitoba?

Two seats. I don't know that there will be an improvement from there although Probe Research says there is an opportunity in two or three Winnipeg seats. It is possible that a leadership change could shake things up but I have heard no indication of that.

[Smallc]

Keep on fighting ghosts in the wind.

[jdobbin]

Keep on fighting ghosts in the wind.

You seem to have supreme confidence in your chosen party.

[Smallc]

I have no idea what the NDP will do from here on out. I expect them to continue the same type of governing style with Selinger at the helm, but I don't know. The difference is I'm not speculating about elections that have already been flatly denied more than once and criticizing one of the most admired...no, the most admired leader in this province's history.

I wonder how many points the Liberal's dropped after Gerrard did the same thing on Doer's final legislative day?

Like I said, keep chasing those ghosts. One day you might actually find one. I and most other Manitobans will wait and see what happens, and make our decisions after that.

[jdobbin]

I have no idea what the NDP will do from here on out. I expect them to continue the same type of governing style with Selinger at the helm, but I don't know. The difference is I'm not speculating about elections that have already been flatly denied more than once and criticizing one of the most admired...no, the most admired leader in this province's history.

You do speculate when you post speculative polls though.

I wonder how many points the Liberal's dropped after Gerrard did the same thing on Doer's final legislative day?

Probably none. As we have seen, attacks get poll support. Witness what is happening in the states in a governor's race like New Jersey. Look at Canada.

Like I said, keep chasing those ghosts. One day you might actually find one. I and most other Manitobans will wait and see what happens, and make our decisions after that.

And you keep fawning over the NDP.

[Smallc]

You do speculate when you post speculative polls though.

No, I posted a poll. The WFP did the speculating. You don't like the particular speculation because it doesn't favour Liberals.

Probably none. As we have seen, attacks get poll support. Witness what is happening in the states in a governor's race like New Jersey. Look at Canada.

Criticsing an outgoing popular leader is usually a bad idea...and people just don't like John Gerrard anyway.

And you keep fawning over the NDP.

No, I fawn over relatively good government in the face of useless opposition parties with no real ideas and no vision. It's the same reason that I grudgingly support the CPC.

[Melanie_]

If Selinger stays the course, he will be successful as a premier, at least until the next election, and likely beyond. Ashton couldn't have done that, and delegates to the party leadership convention recognized this reality. I don't see a big change happening here in the short term, or even in the long term. Most Manitobans are happy with the staus quo.

[jdobbin]

No, I posted a poll. The WFP did the speculating. You don't like the particular speculation because it doesn't favour Liberals.

Never said anything about the Liberals. You did in a misdirection as you often do.

I said the poll was speculation and you posted it. Posting a poll on what people think of a party after Doer while Doer is still in office is a head scratcher.

Criticsing an outgoing popular leader is usually a bad idea...and people just don't like John Gerrard anyway.

No, I fawn over relatively good government in the face of useless opposition parties with no real ideas and no vision. It's the same reason that I grudgingly support the CPC.

I can't say that I am that impressed with a government that has seen the rise of the Hell's Angels under their watch when they didn't exist prior to their coming into government, the failure to hire the required amount of Crown Prosecutors, that let Crocus implode, that let children be put up in hotels rather than care, that let child poverty persist, that wastes money sending hydro lines down the far side of the province while planning to build a road where the hydro lines would have gone, that put hospitals in crisis while increasing the various layers of management overseeing them and that puts Hydro in possible jeopardy of providing power for the province while letting the utility fire the whistleblower.

The fawning I see seems to associated with the party in power.

[Smallc]

Never said anything about the Liberals. You did in a misdirection as you often do.

You don't have to say Liberal...it's just there.

I can't say that I am that impressed with a government that has seen the rise of the Hell's Angels under their watch when they didn't exist prior to their coming into government, the failure to hire the required amount of Crown Prosecutors, that let Crocus implode, that let children be put up in hotels rather than care, that let child poverty persist, that wastes money sending hydro lines down the far side of the province while planning to build a road where the hydro lines would have gone, that put hospitals in crisis while increasing the various layers of management overseeing them and that puts Hydro in possible jeopardy of providing power for the province while letting the utility fire the whistleblower.

Sure, if I were to look at things that way I'd never support anything. Ask 10 Manitobans on the street if they feel that their province is better or worse now than in 1999. You'll get your answer. Almost everything has gotten better under the NDP government. Healthcare, infrastructure, environmental commitment, the economy, the population, the city of Winnipeg...and so many other things. You don't want to see them because the wrong logo is behind the party in power. I don't really care what logo they wear, I want them to do a good job, and so far, they've done as good a job as any government could be expected to taking into consideration that we're all fallible human beings.

The fawning I see seems to associated with the party in power.

Yes, usually I support the government. I support the BC Liberals for the most part, The Alberta PCs not at all, the Saskatchewan party is iffy, the Manitoba NDP is wait and see, hope the good work continues, the Ontario Liberals I support, the Quebec Liberals I support most of the time, the New Brunswick and PEI governments I know nothing about, the Nova Scotia NDP is wait and see, and the N + L PCs I don't support.

I support people who do well or at least relatively well. I support the governments that have worked to make the provinces and the country that we live in a better place. Canada has increased in wealth and health pretty much every year for the last couple of decades. Obviously the people in power were doing something right.They didn't spend their time focused on what's wrong with everything, they pushed forward.

I have a special attachment to Doer, and I was sad to see him go. It was nice to see a politician who could get along with other politicians and people from all parties at all levels of government. I'm going to give Selinger a chance to prove himself. If he can do half the job that Doer did, he'll still be twice as good as McFayden and Gerrard. If the he doesn't do a good job, and the Conservatives present what looks to be a better alternative, I'll vote for them. I won't vote for the Liberal Party of Manitoba as long as the good doctor remains as head of the party. I think that I can speak for a great many Manitobans when I say that.

[jdobbin]

If Selinger stays the course, he will be successful as a premier, at least until the next election, and likely beyond. Ashton couldn't have done that, and delegates to the party leadership convention recognized this reality. I don't see a big change happening here in the short term, or even in the long term. Most Manitobans are happy with the staus quo.

Selinger doesn't have the easy going nature that Doer had that led to some MLAs riding his coattails to power.

Ashton is far more genial but he may have been regarded as far more activist. It could have been a good selling point in a brand new leader but I think some in the NDP feared it would be polarizing.

Ultimately, Selinger was picked because he was the blander of the two choices. I think the NDP forget that Doer was chosen as leader not because he wasn't bland.

I think the Tories would have had a hard time making gains against Doer given his popularity but I think they have potential in a number of seats now.

I suspect Selinger would win if the election were held now although with fewer seats barring a terrible campaign by the Tories. They have been far more polished in their performance in the last year.

[jdobbin]

You don't have to say Liberal...it's just there.

I have never said the Liberals will win in Manitoba. I have been pretty explicit what their weaknesses are. However, you misdirect whenever given the chance. It just gets under your skin when someone points out the flaws in your party.

Sure, if I were to look at things that way I'd never support anything. Ask 10 Manitobans on the street if they feel that their province is better or worse now than in 1999. You'll get your answer. Almost everything has gotten better under the NDP government. Healthcare, infrastructure, environmental commitment, the economy, the population, the city of Winnipeg...and so many other things. You don't want to see them because the wrong logo is behind the party in power. I don't really care what logo they wear, I want them to do a good job, and so far, they've done as good a job as any government could be expected to taking into consideration that we're all fallible human beings.

I think they have the wrong policies and look to repeat some of them over and over again with freezing tuition and freezing rent increases, the rise in youth crime and Hell's Angels has been under their watch.

Ask 10 people in Manitoba on what they think of crime and what it was 10 years ago and you'll get your answer. Ask them if it was easier to rent an apartment 10 years ago and you'll get your answer. Ask them if freezing tuition for 10 years has made their university better than it was 10 years ago and you'll get your answer.

Yes, usually I support the government.

That much is clear.

I have a special attachment to Doer, and I was sad to see him go. It was nice to see a politician who could get along with other politicians and people from all parties at all levels of government. I'm going to give Selinger a chance to prove himself. If he can do half the job that Doer did, he'll still be twice as good as McFayden and Gerrard.

I believe McFaydan has performed far better the last year. And given that Selinger won't have the profile Doer did, I suspect that things will appear a little more favourable poll-wise unless Selinger decides to pull the plug. He didn't categorically deny that he won't go to an election.

[Smallc]

He didn't categorically deny that he won't go to an election.

I'm pretty sure he did.

You've again focused on the negative. Crime is down overall in Manitoba and it's not a provincial matter anyway. All parties in this province have been united in their pressure on the federal government. On that note though, you mentioned prosecutors. You're right that they aren't hiring as many as recommended, but governments never do. They are hiring over 5 a year as well as new police....and tuition isn't frozen anymore. You don't like what's happened here, but overall most people seem to.

Oh, and yes, McFayden is doing much better. If he continues to do well, I might even consider him next time.

Edited October 23, 2009 by Smallc

[jdobbin]

I'm pretty sure he did.

I'm pretty sure he said he had no plans to call an election which is not a categorical denial.

You've again focused on the negative. Crime is down overall in Manitoba and it's not a provincial matter anyway.

Crown Prosecutors and provincial jails as well as a host of other judicial measures are within provincial jurisdiction. Certain aspects of the crime stats are very disturbing such as organized crime and youth crime. If you focus all on the positive as you have, you forget that the NDP let the organized crime task force lapse allowing the Hell's Angels to entrench themselves all through the time that Doer was premier.

Manitoba has a drug problem, an addiction problem and it is worse now than ten years ago.

All parties in this province have been united in their pressure on the federal government.

And the Opposition has been united in getting the NDP to hire more Crown Prosecutors. It is one of the reasons that justice is delayed and people are piling up in remand.

On that note though, you mentioned prosecutors. You're right that they aren't hiring as many as recommended, but governments never do.

It has been 10 years of neglect and it shows now in the delays to justice.

They are hiring over 5 a year as well as new police

They have been unclear how many will be hired two years from now. At the moment, it doesn't look like it will make a dent given the additional legislation on crime.

Manitoba is extremely short of police as well. The organized crime task force alone needs 25 police full-time. What will end up happening is that they will likely come from the auto crime task force. This is what happened last time.

....and tuition isn't frozen anymore.

It was the promise of one of the candidates and the new leader has not lifted tuition restrictions. It is why the University of Manitoba is in crisis. Selinger continues a policy that has placed the U of M at the bottom of universities in Canada.

You don't like what's happened here, but overall most people seem to.

Most people liked Doer as you do. Many people had issues with some of the policies which we are now seeing coming home to roost.

Oh, and yes, McFayden is doing much better. If he continues to do well, I might even consider him next time.

I expect that if the Tories keep chipping away as they do, it will be harder for the NDP to hold ridings that formerly elected Tories.

In the last 10 years, we have seen a lot of revenue flow from Ottawa in transfers. I'm not entirely sure the province can rely on that and they may have to make hard decisions on cuts.

[jbg]

You seem to have supreme confidence in your chosen party.

You'll have to filmon me in on why.