'They saved the NDP from itself'

[jdobbin]

You honestly think we have one resolution at the convention? Honestly you believe that? I knew Liberals were east to fool but seriously.

Tell your leader to refute then. It would be foolish to take the word of an anonymous poster unless you are about to reveal your name so I can read it publicly in the list of resolutions. Why hide?

Edited June 28, 2009 by jdobbin

[punked]

Tell your leader to refute then. It would be foolish to take the word of an anonymous poster unless you are about to reveal your name so I can read it publicly in the list of resolutions. Why hide?

Don't worry we will refute by having a convention. They aren't hidden last week, was the last week to get your resolution in so now they check and make sure proper procedure was fallowed for these resolutions put them into a booklet and it should be out with the next few weeks. Then we go to the convention debate them and vote on them. There are procedures to be fallowed. You should sign up and come to Halifax 09 if you are so interested should be great.

[jdobbin]

Don't worry we will refute by having a convention. They aren't hidden last week, was the last week to get your resolution in so now they check and make sure proper procedure was fallowed for these resolutions put them into a booklet and it should be out with the next few weeks. Then we go to the convention debate them and vote on them. There are procedures to be fallowed. You should sign up and come to Halifax 09 if you are so interested should be great.

I will look to see your name in the resolutions when they are posted online. Be sure to let me know what name to look for.

[August1991]

That is not what the post was and you know it.

It was how Layton's position left him no room except to say no even if it meant that his party would face damage from it.

Caplan is an NDPer. His observations would seem pertinent as to what the party faces in the next while.

I went back an re-read the column and found this Caplan reference to Ignatieff:

(And can we drop this "cosmopolitan" business, please? Michael's not even Jewish.)

Gimme a break.

----

IMV, this is a good time for the NDP. Changing their name to the Democratic Party makes sense. They can do the italic thing, the New Democratic Party - for awhile.

I don't say this with any guile. IMV, Jack Layton as PM would be a disaster (except that it might lead to an independent Quebec with reasonable terms). I merely remark that, unlike the OP and its link, the NDP is in a good position now. Only a churlish Liberal would claim otherwise.

[jdobbin]

Only a churlish Liberal would claim otherwise.

Only a mischievous Conservative would assert the NDP is in the catbird seat.

[punked]

I will look to see your name in the resolutions when they are posted online. Be sure to let me know what name to look for.

We will see if they approve it is my first and my ridding association, worked really hard to get in under the deadline.

[myata]

What?

The NDP has a seat at the table and a rather wide seat (despite Dobbin's OP and Caplan's spurious piece). Moreover, the BQ also has a place at the table.

Really, at the power table? The last time anything very remotely like that had a quite remote possibility to happen (last December's multiparty coalition, a thing of normal for many, many democratic citizens of this world) there's been a whine and squeek rising up as though the sky itself was about to fall. In this system we have, only two parties can ever govern, and for that reason, the two have very strong incentive to keep it as is.

In a dream perfect world, the two would be vying for our (public's) attention with solutions to improve and modernize our government and public service. Do we see anything like that in our real world around us? Obviously, no. The best survival strategy for the two players in a duopoly is to keep a good face while doing nothing. Doing things, especially serious things, gets messy and almost bound to create problems and issues, not good for electability. Slow dance, lots of rhethoric and doing nothing is the safest bet, lets them stick to the sugar for a long long time, and the longer they stick, the less is done, until finally they forget who and where they are and fall off the feeder bursting with stuff and completely exausted with the effort.

Nope it won't change by itself. Don't vote Liberal until and unless they agree to support some way of electoral reform. With NDP on board and block in a tight squeeze, it may just happen. And until it does, we'll be stuck with the "Harper" / "Iggy" choice and it won't get better, let's not fool ourselves.

[madmax]

Taliban Jack? It was Taliban Steve who said we'd never cut and run in Afghanistan then not only announced the date on which Canada would cut and run but also bizarrely went on CNN to tell Americans why we'd cut and run:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=&no_ads=

Other than to stay in power, there are few remaining principles in the Harper arsenal.

You have to Laugh about that. In the middle of an election campaign, trying to grab a few more percentage points, Stephen Harper turns into a real TALIBAN STEVE and sells out the military publicly for political gain.

Of course Jack Layton was correct, he was repeating what he was hearing on the ground and from other military services. But TALIBAN STEVE did it under the most opportunistic circumstances and the military called him on it.

[madmax]

Caplan is an NDPer. His observations would seem pertinent as to what the party faces in the next while.

I think Caplan is old school from the Ed Broadbent era. I't bet he doesn't have anything to do with the party, let alone know inside information. Probably why he didn't offer a solution to his criticism, like the other two strategists were able to do.

[madmax]

IMV, this is a good time for the NDP. Changing their name to the Democratic Party makes sense. They can do the italic thing, the New Democratic Party - for awhile.

Changing the name from the CCF to the NDP made sense. Possible changing the name back in 1993 would have been a good time, back when the NDP was at 6%. IIRC the NDP is near the heights of the glory era of Ed Broadbent and higher then at anytime when Tommy Douglas or David Lewis Ran the party. They are certainly not as ignored as during the Alexa M Era, and have broken through in Quebec and NFLD, and have more seats in Ontario then at ANY time in its history.... All with that near 50 year old title NDP.

Perhaps if the NDP do a tailspin, they could consider changing their name. I prefer CCF to DP. DP sounds rude.

The NDP historically stand up for the underdogs and I don't think that DP would reflect the historical concious of the NDP or intends to do that, but as I don't see this party doing anything but maintaining its traditional base, changing the name isn't going to change the vote.

Regardless of all the attacks on Jack Layton, since his high water mark in personal popularity, two things are clear to me.

The NDP will not get more seats based on the popularity of the leader, nor is it going to lose alot more seats because the leader is not Popular. If Jack Laytons personal popularity rises or falls it will not affect the seat count by more than a handful either way.

The NDP base vote in all the polls is maintaining a 70 year historical trend going back to CCF days. The only blip is that 6% era, where the NDP was punished federally by both Ontario and BC for the actions of NDP Provincial Governments in 1993.

Quite Frankly, the NDP could circle the wagons around their 36 seats and maybe even gain one more or lose 5 seats, which the NDP risk each and everytime there is an election, regardless of where the polls are at.

That is why the NDP of all the parties, doesn't have to pay attention to the polls to do its job.

If the news is as bad as Caplan explains, the NDP polling numbers do not reflect that...

The mere fact that the NDP is being talked about more, means that the NDP are more of a factor then they were under the Alexa era in which no one wasted time criticising the NDP or their positions.

I expect the other two parties to gang up on the NDP in the next election, and I expect the NDP to come out with many of the seats it holds today....

Just as I think the same for the LPC and the CPC. I see a small merry go round, but the end result would look much like it already is....

[jdobbin]

Nope it won't change by itself. Don't vote Liberal until and unless they agree to support some way of electoral reform. With NDP on board and block in a tight squeeze, it may just happen. And until it does, we'll be stuck with the "Harper" / "Iggy" choice and it won't get better, let's not fool ourselves.

What sort of squeeze do you anticipate the Bloc getting into? They only have to worry about what happens in their backyard and don't aspire to actual power as government.

[madmax]

We will see if they approve it is my first and my ridding association, worked really hard to get in under the deadline.

You mean riding associations have input into NDP policy??? Like grassroots type of stuff? Probably won't make it to the floor. Aren't these conventions just a time to waste money and party?

I'm curious what your resolution is....

[madmax]

Only a mischievous Conservative would assert the NDP is in the catbird seat.

I agree... I see a steering wheel with Harper and Ignatieff fighting over who is turning right the fastest, and Jack trying to tug the wheel left.... one handed, and Gilles trying to take the Steering Wheel off the car, if it was made in Canada.

[jdobbin]

I think Caplan is old school from the Ed Broadbent era. I't bet he doesn't have anything to do with the party, let alone know inside information. Probably why he didn't offer a solution to his criticism, like the other two strategists were able to do.

As far as I know Caplan still is an NDPer but not exactly an Layton promoter. I thought one of the points that he has made over the last year is that if the party continues to push for an election each and every time a confidence vote is up, it doesn't exactly serve the party well.

[jdobbin]

Regardless of all the attacks on Jack Layton, since his high water mark in personal popularity, two things are clear to me.

The NDP will not get more seats based on the popularity of the leader, nor is it going to lose alot more seats because the leader is not Popular. If Jack Laytons personal popularity rises or falls it will not affect the seat count by more than a handful either way.

It really depends on where NDP support is concentrated. They have been squeezed in the past. A few lost seats would likely affect his future. This could be Layton's last election as leader. People are saying that Ignatieff is getting up there in age. Well, Layton is no spring chicken either. Layton was elected in 2003. The only way I see him staying for an election after this one is if his party does really well. Ten years as a leader is generally considered a good run. Layton will have seven under his belt by January.

Caplan was not making issue with the polling as he was about the very narrow position that Layton is operating under. Timing is everything in election and Layton could find that his no vote to every confidence motion could hit him when he down. The polls since the election have shown that the party is down a few percentage points. Notwithstanding two 18% marks in some of the last polls, the average in the last months has been below that.

My feeling is that the Liberals will target NDP seats in Ontario like never before. Like Peggy Nash, I think some NDPers will have to watch for a full court press.

[madmax]

As far as I know Caplan still is an NDPer but not exactly an Layton promoter. I thought one of the points that he has made over the last year is that if the party continues to push for an election each and every time a confidence vote is up, it doesn't exactly serve the party well.

That is what the article said....

NDP MPs are elected to create change....or represent values. If you cannot get the changes in legislation, or the values you uphold are not in the Legislation.... it is your duty to fight for those values or oppose the legislation in a confidence vote. One thing is clear... there hasn't been any leglisation that represents the policies of the NDP. The Old Reform Party and Social Credit would operate in similar fashion to get their values and legislation adopted.

The other thing that is clear, the Legislation I have seen, is only partially Conservative, but generally big government, big spending, high profile Liberal Budget. Thus, if the Liberal Government were implementing these budgets the NDP would ask for changes or oppose them in a confidence vote.

There is more to government then simply avoiding an election until your ready to fight a campaign. That was the policy of Dion, and it is the policy of Ignatieff.

Possibly the biggest snow job that Canadians just endured was the false test that Ignatieff was going to challenge the government.... BOO!!!

How a guy can jump on and off the EI bandwagon is beyond reproach to anyone collecting or not collecting EI. But this wasn't about EI, and I'd say that Ignatieff just got schooled by Harper. Harper Called his bluff.

While you think the NDP is playing a game, the fact is the NDP is not bluffing. The NDP had an EI bill on the table. The Liberals did not. There was a bill to support and work on through the summer, and Ignatieff wanted to showboat and prove he was no Dion, yet he caved in just the same....

Parliment could have continued. However, Ignatieff boxed himself in On Monday, and caved in within 20 minutes of his announcement and the friday deadline became meaningless.

I'd personally say, that Jack Layton is wearing more mud because of the Dion Fiasco, then the positions the NDP take in parliment. The NDP is holding their principles and obviously willing to fall on the sword. May not be good politics, but there is no denying the NDP know where they stand.

Ignatieff looks weak heading into the summer...

Harper has sensed this, and has done a good job of getting the public onboard with the fact that the NDP vote down everything before seeing it. We know that is not the truth, but the perception is believable. Considering that bills can be found online, including all debate etc... only someone not paying attention would believe this and for the media, it makes a good pitch.

Its just like, oh , look this 500 page budget has been dropped on my lap 45 minutes before the vote, and all MPs start asking their leaders... how do I vote on this.... because they sure haven't read it.

Someone reads these bills in process and parties have their minds made up barring some unforeseen last minute deals.

In the meantime... Liberal Strategists will take note, that I never ever believed for a minute that Ignatieff was going to take the government down over EI. He is lucky Harper offered a measure for him to save face, at no cost to Mr. Harper.

As I said... Iggy was going to give his biggest BOO!!! since becoming leader.

Quite pathetic actually.

[madmax]

It really depends on where NDP support is concentrated. They have been squeezed in the past. A few lost seats would likely affect his future.

A few, probably not, but say 10 or 12 seats... then someone has to be responsible.... theres the sword...

Caplan was not making issue with the polling as he was about the very narrow position that Layton is operating under. Timing is everything in election and Layton could find that his no vote to every confidence motion could hit him when he down. The polls since the election have shown that the party is down a few percentage points. Notwithstanding two 18% marks in some of the last polls, the average in the last months has been below that.

My feeling is that the Liberals will target NDP seats in Ontario like never before. Like Peggy Nash, I think some NDPers will have to watch for a full court press.

Peggy Nash is Gone.... already a Liberal Seat...

The voting position of Layton appears Narrow... and it is the leaders job to make a case for the parties existence. Caplan could have a good point on this, as the media case coming from Layton is the Opposing of everything done by Harper. Layton could highlight other things but he has chosen this route, and obviously that is what Caplan doesn't agree with.

However, in the same vein, the Liberals have not opposed anything, nothing, nada, zilch, zip, zero, that the Conservatives have done. Thus Ignatieff is also boxed in until the day he challenges the government.

Then the NDP will have to accept the election at that time, because there is no way the Conservatives are going to cut a deal with the NDP and NDP policies... it wouldn't further their electoral chances either. So there will likely be an election. After that election, there is a new start with new MPs and possibly a more workable arrangement.

I do blame the CPC for the poisonous atmosphere since the September Election. They created alot of fires and really weren't concerned with governing, but are more concerned with politicing and winning the next election.

That is there downfall.

[punked]

Peggy Nash is Gone.... already a Liberal Seat...

Funny you guys mention that seat because it is one of the few we might pick up if we run Cheri DiNovo we got a really good chance. It is northern Ont that scares me. The thing is the NDP have been working their butts off in Parliament, if you look at the stats Bills, questions, words spoken each NDP member does 5 times the amount of work as each Liberal member. We might be able to hold our own in the places we have won and our vote will drop every where else if it does drop.

[jdobbin]

A few, probably not, but say 10 or 12 seats... then someone has to be responsible.... theres the sword...

And that is always the leader.

Peggy Nash is Gone.... already a Liberal Seat...

As I said, like Peggy Nash, some NDPers will have to watch their backs.

The voting position of Layton appears Narrow... and it is the leaders job to make a case for the parties existence. Caplan could have a good point on this, as the media case coming from Layton is the Opposing of everything done by Harper. Layton could highlight other things but he has chosen this route, and obviously that is what Caplan doesn't agree with.

However, in the same vein, the Liberals have not opposed anything, nothing, nada, zilch, zip, zero, that the Conservatives have done. Thus Ignatieff is also boxed in until the day he challenges the government.

Well, we know the main reason is that the Bloc and the NDP want to go to an election every single vote so one time voting no equals election and then we have everyone blaming the Liberals for an election and Harper saying it is an NDP/Liberal coalition yada yada.

Then the NDP will have to accept the election at that time, because there is no way the Conservatives are going to cut a deal with the NDP and NDP policies... it wouldn't further their electoral chances either. So there will likely be an election. After that election, there is a new start with new MPs and possibly a more workable arrangement.

Possibly. Or the NDP continues to vote no every time.

I do blame the CPC for the poisonous atmosphere since the September Election. They created alot of fires and really weren't concerned with governing, but are more concerned with politicing and winning the next election.

That is there downfall.

Everyone calls the polarized politics principles and compromise is unprincipled.

Continued problems with the economy might eventually break the logjam.

[jdobbin]

Funny you guys mention that seat because it is one of the few we might pick up if we run Cheri DiNovo we got a really good chance. It is northern Ont that scares me. The thing is the NDP have been working their butts off in Parliament, if you look at the stats Bills, questions, words spoken each NDP member does 5 times the amount of work as each Liberal member. We might be able to hold our own in the places we have won and our vote will drop every where else if it does drop.

Working your butt off in Parliament is sometimes less important than being seen in the riding. That has kicked the NDP and Liberals both in the teeth in Churchill riding. If you are a force in Ottawa, it seems you are less visible in your riding and therefore vulnerable.

Edited June 29, 2009 by jdobbin

[Keepitsimple]

This is Canada. There is Left (Cons), Really Left (Libs), and Looney Tunes Left (NDP). Doesn't matter that public health care is a disaster of a proposition, or the Canadian Bill of Rights would have existed anyway in one form or another. Dippers will always claim that "this" wouldn't exist, and "that" was brought in under pressure of a party that has no application in these years.

When comparing our parties to those in the US, you're bang on.

[punked]

Working your butt off in Parliament is sometimes less important that being seen in the riding. That has kicked the NDP and Liberals both in the teeth in Churchill riding. If you are a force in Ottawa, it seems you are less visible in your riding and therefore vulnerable.

Yah I would agree with that.

[jdobbin]

Richard J. Brennan's column:

Jack Layton goes from kingmaker to bystander

http://www.thestar.com/News/Canada/article/657580

During the 2008 election, Layton consistently placed second to Harper as the person who would make the best prime minister. NDP support at the time spiked at 22 per cent, compared with 15 per cent now.

"The election is a bit of a false indicator for Jack Layton, because a lot of that had to do with the weakness of Stéphane Dion," Nanos said.

A serious recession should be a time for the New Democrats to make political hay, but rather than picking one specific thing to go after the government for, they have chosen more of a shotgun approach, accusing the government in general terms of taking the country in the wrong direction.

While the shine may be off Layton's public image, he is not expected to be subjected to a leadership review at the party's national convention in Halifax, Aug. 14-16. With the possibility of an election this fall, he's likely to be given one more kick at the can in light of the party's numbers in the 2008 election.

I agree that it is likely one more election that we will see from Layton and thereafter, he will be likely judged on whether he does better in getting his people elected. The same numbers or a fall-off will probably make most NDPers think about who comes next.

[myata]

What sort of squeeze do you anticipate the Bloc getting into? They only have to worry about what happens in their backyard and don't aspire to actual power as government.

The Bloc would be in the squeeze to support PR or they would be further underminded in the relatively progressive (in the political context of Canada) Quebec.

But my take is that barring some late in coming miracle, we'll see governing duopoly rising to unsurpassed grotesk levels, unchallenged by apathetic aging population that in the majority wants nothing more than continuation of the status quo. I wonder if maybe subconscious understanding of this fact is the cause of weak participation of younger people in politics. More of the same. Always.

[jdobbin]

The Bloc would be in the squeeze to support PR or they would be further underminded in the relatively progressive (in the political context of Canada) Quebec.

I'm afraid that I don't see that happening. The progressive wing as you see it likely supports the BQ and would feel that the system you propose would see fewer of the people they like elected.

But my take is that barring some late in coming miracle, we'll see governing duopoly rising to unsurpassed grotesk levels, unchallenged by apathetic aging population that in the majority wants nothing more than continuation of the status quo. I wonder if maybe subconscious understanding of this fact is the cause of weak participation of younger people in politics. More of the same. Always.

I don't know any form of change would make the least difference to young people unless they were personally affected with something such a draft.