Federal Budget - January 2009

[Riverwind]

Government should not have the right to suspend parliment to avoid a confidence vote. As for delays, the PM delayed the vote once, then retracted most of the content in the confidence meaure.

You are making an irrelevant distinction between a procedural delay and porogation. If this issue had blown up at a slightly different time Harper could have used procedural delays to put it off until after the normal Christmas recess.

The key point that you miss is a delayed vote is not an avoided vote. Harper still has to face the music and if he had really lost his democratic legitimacy then it would be clear from the polls he would be heading to defeat this week.

Today Harper has become just another Liberal dressed in Blue.

Welcome to the world of minority governments. Tough decisions are impossible and that usually means the spending taps get turned on. Edited January 28, 2009 by Riverwind

[myata]

Ignatieff knows that bringing down the government now could backfire on him. He's far wiser to allow Harper to continue to self-destruct before he finally pulls the plug.

Yeigh, yeigh. And in the meanwhile country's economy may go in the same direction. But who cares, right? It's getting up there, that matters above all. Why am I not surprised, one little bit?

[jdobbin]

Ignatieff to support budget with conditions CTV reports.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

CTV's Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife said Wednesday that Ignatieff will support the budget but with two conditions:

* The Tories make amendments that include improvements in employment insurance and infrastructure but without adding more to the deficit.

* The Tories issue an update three times a year on the types of progress being made in terms of the deficit, infrastructure, creating jobs, and regional fairness.

[ToadBrother]

I don't understand this obession with the prorogation - given the consequences for the county a timeout was certainly called for and the prorogation does not prevent the coalition from voting down the budget and trying to form a government. In fact, Paul Martin resorted to similar parlimentary rule games to delay a confidence vote in 2006 - were you complaining then? Whether you like it or not the parlimentary system has a myriad of rules and traditions which are designed to ensure due process and stability. Prorogation is just another one of those rules and there is nothing unfair about it.

Proroguing parliament most certainly was not just a "meh, whatever" move. So far as I can tell, it's never been done in a Westminster parliament to avoid a confidence vote before. I'm not necessarily saying it's a bad thing, but, for better or for worse, a precedent has been set. Minority governments can now run from confidence motions.

[ToadBrother]

I see, so in your mind a Coalition seizing power that wasn't elected to sit in the PMO is fine but prorogation isn't?

We do not vote for a government, we vote for a Parliament. It's Parliament that decides who forms the government.

[Molly]

Riverwind, I challenge that.

Prorogation completely removed that particular bill from the table. No other procedural stalling could have done that.

That was a classic 'mulligan' (among a group of my friends, a bid of 'two clubs', laughingly allowed any time within bidding, and used as an escape clause whenever someone has aggressively, inanely, run themselves into impossible territory, and knows it.)

It was absolutely an avoided, not a delayed, vote.

Edited January 28, 2009 by Molly

[normanchateau]

Ignatieff to support budget with conditions CTV reports.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...?hub=TopStories

OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff plans to move an amendment to the budget requiring periodic economic status reports to Parliament starting in March:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...t_4FuKjf1qgH4sw

Excellent! Ignatieff will continue to keep Harper on a much-needed short leash.

[normanchateau]

Bill Clinton was a highly educated, highly intelligent man - and a fool without the restraint or common sense God gave monkeys.

The same could be said about Harper and his November "economic update". That's why Ignatieff now has him on a short leash.

[ToadBrother]

OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff plans to move an amendment to the budget requiring periodic economic status reports to Parliament starting in March:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...t_4FuKjf1qgH4sw

Excellent! Ignatieff will continue to keep Harper on a much-needed short leash.

Hey, all you Tory supporters out there, still think the party financing stunt was worth it?

[daniel]

...That's why Ignatieff now has him on a short leash.

So Ignatieff is doing to Harper what Harper had done to his MPs.

[blueblood]

Hey, all you Tory supporters out there, still think the party financing stunt was worth it?

Wouldn't have mattered, you guys were crying for the taps to be opened, you wanted it you got it.

The question remains, will this 85 billion be enough to buy Harper a majority?

I am starting to think more and more that the GG would have granted a coalition gov't had the budget been voted down. I would have preferred Harper to run a balanced budget and shift money in that to provide stimulus, and then fight an election on it.

If I were Tory Brass however, I'd let Harper take the fall with a "conservative" budget, let the coalition take over and have a leadership convention and be done with it.

[jdobbin]

Wouldn't have mattered, you guys were crying for the taps to be opened, you wanted it you got it.

The question remains, will this 85 billion be enough to buy Harper a majority?

The question remains whether real conservatives will abandon the Tories for producing a deficit.

If I were Tory Brass however, I'd let Harper take the fall with a "conservative" budget, let the coalition take over and have a leadership convention and be done with it.

How about Harper not allowing these amendments going forward and letting Ignatieff take over the government now?

[normanchateau]

So Ignatieff is doing to Harper what Harper had done to his MPs.

[jdobbin]

Excellent! Ignatieff will continue to keep Harper on a much-needed short leash.

Let's see if Harper rejects the amendment.

[normanchateau]

How about Harper not allowing these amendments going forward and letting Ignatieff take over the government now?

That would violate the one and only principle that Harper continues to espouse...holding on to power at all costs.

[Molly]

It's a toss, Blueblood- election or coalition as the alternative.

But Harper has had his last credible run at forming a majority. He's done like dinner, and pretty much has been since the end of November. He put his foot in it, right up to his neck.

Boy oh boy, have we seen a shift in the balance!

[jdobbin]

That would violate the one and only principle that Harper continues to espouse...holding on to power at all costs.

Then he will have to pass Liberal amendments.

[ToadBrother]

Then he will have to pass Liberal amendments.

Harper's biggest problem here, politically, is that the amendments aren't really all that unreasonable. In particular, having to go to Parliament on a regular basis with numbers in hand seems a reasonable accommodation for sending the government into such a huge deficit.

I think we're getting our first taste of Ignatief here, and I think the Conservatives should be very very scared.

[blueblood]

The question remains whether real conservatives will abandon the Tories for producing a deficit.

How about Harper not allowing these amendments going forward and letting Ignatieff take over the government now?

Unless a leader like Manning comes about and stirs the pot, or Manning himself comes out of retirement, I can't see real conservatives jumping ship. Its a hold the nose and vote.

These amendments don't appear to be very significant. So Harper essentially gets a pass.

I wouldn't say Harper is "Tory Brass" Harper has to answer to them. Had I been a senior member of the party, I would have fed Harper to the dogs and groomed another leader. However that had to have been done either at the whiff of the coalition, or when the budget was tabled. Now its too late to dump Harper until much later.

Harper's political career depends on the recession ending ASAP.

[August1991]

Given the thread title, I guess I'll use this place to post the best comment that I saw on the budget:

There is some broad personal income tax relief in an increased basic personal tax exemption for the 2009 tax year now set at $10,320. (This is what you can earn in '09 before paying any federal tax.)

The basic personal amount was already set to rise to $10,100 in 2009, however, before this latest budget boost. That means taxpayers are realizing a 2.2 per cent increase – not 7.5 per cent from the 2008 level, as the government says.

It's the same story with budget changes to personal income tax brackets. They're not as good as they appear.

You can earn up to $40,726 in 2009, allowing more income to be taxed at the 15 per cent rate (rather than the 22 per cent rate).

But, with inflation indexing, the upper limit would have gone up to $38,832 in 2009 anyway.

The second personal income tax bracket will top out at $81,452 in 2009, allowing more income to be taxed at the 22 per cent rate (rather than the 26 per cent rate).

But the upper limit would have gone to $77,664 through inflation.

The benefit is overstated because it is calculated from 2008 levels, not the scheduled 2009 levels.

Toronto Star

IOW, we were scheduled to get most of the $2 billion income tax cut anyway through inflation of brackets.

Talk about smoke and mirrors.

[jdobbin]

Unless a leader like Manning comes about and stirs the pot, or Manning himself comes out of retirement, I can't see real conservatives jumping ship. Its a hold the nose and vote.

I was thinking of real fiscal conservatives actually just not voting or withdrawing their support from the Tories.

Certainly real fiscal conservatives are upset.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianp...2IYwIf5pQgM2wMQ

"This budget is not a failure of the Conservative party, it is a failure of the conservative movement," said the headline Wednesday on the blog of Stephen Taylor, the informed and faithful standard-bearer of partisan Conservative party politics in this country.

Taylor argued the budget was a necessary act of self-preservation, considering a climate of "ideological survivability" has not yet been established in Canada to sustain a "sincerely conservative budget."

After all, Taylor wrote, "a political party, in practice, is not much more than a marketing machine to sell ideas to an electorate looking to buy them."

These amendments don't appear to be very significant. So Harper essentially gets a pass.

They make Harper answerable every few months. In those months, his own party might get increasingly upset with growing deficits.

I wouldn't say Harper is "Tory Brass" Harper has to answer to them. Had I been a senior member of the party, I would have fed Harper to the dogs and groomed another leader. However that had to have been done either at the whiff of the coalition, or when the budget was tabled. Now its too late to dump Harper until much later.

Harper's political career depends on the recession ending ASAP.

Looks like Tory supporters are already doing that.

[August1991]

Certainly real fiscal conservatives are upset.

What alternative is there? Harper knows that.

If I were an Albertan, I would be particularly appalled by this budget. Albertans stand to get a four lane highway through the Rockies (of benefit to tourists) and money for a Calgary museum. They also get to see Ontario and Quebec get into a bunfight about who gets more of Alberta's money.

IMV, this budget is an uninspired, dog's breakfast. It is conservative in the true meaning of the word. It makes little steps.

Other budget points

Most of the infrastructure money is only a federal offer to pay 50% of the costs. Provinces and municipalities will have to pony up the rest before anything happens. (I think this is smart since local bureaucrats probably know better than Ottawa bureaucrats and some of the money won't get spent.)

I'm all in favour of tax cuts but why do pensioners get a special deal?

I like the pay freeze for civil servants.

If the Tories had done nothing, the federal budget would have been a $15 billion deficit simply because of falling revenues. With a deficit of $34 billion, the "fiscal stimulus" amounts to about $20 billion. This is modest, particularly when compared to the US.

=====

Ignatieff had no choice but to support this budget and the government. The Liberal Party is not ready for an election now.

We will have an election in the fall of 2009 when the Liberals bring the government down. You read about here first.

Edited January 29, 2009 by August1991

[Smallc]

They also get to see Ontario and Quebec get into a bunfight about who gets more of Alberta's money.

Here we go again. Ontario does not get anyone else's money. They are simply getting a small percentage of the money they sent out given back to them

[jdobbin]

What alternative is there? Harper knows that.

Yes, he does. Fiscal conservatives set up their own party. Remember?

If I were an Albertan, I would be particularly appalled by this budget. Albertans stand to get a four lane highway through the Rockies (of benefit to tourists) and money for a Calgary museum. They also get to see Ontario and Quebec get into a bunfight about who gets more of Alberta's money.

I have been reading and listening to angry Tories all day. They are more than appalled. They are furious.

IMV, this budget is an uninspired, dog's breakfast. It is conservative in the true meaning of the word. It makes little steps.

It is enough to get some Tories talking about what next after Harper.

Other budget points

Most of the infrastructure money is only a federal offer to pay 50% of the costs. Provinces and municipalities will have to pony up the rest before anything happens. (I think this is smart since local bureaucrats probably know better than Ottawa bureaucrats and some of the money won't get spent.)

I agree.

I'm all in favour of tax cuts but why do pensioners get a special deal?

More likely to vote Tory.

I like the pay freeze for civil servants.

I agree. Hiring freeze would be good too.

If the Tories had done nothing, the federal budget would have been a $15 billion deficit simply because of falling revenues. With a deficit of $34 billion, the "fiscal stimulus" amounts to about $20 billion. This is modest, particularly when compared to the US.

It is modest. However, the deficit might not have been here at all if the government had a rainy day fund set aside.

=====

Ignatieff had no choice but to support this budget and the government. The Liberal Party is not ready for an election now.

Harper had no choice but to support the amendments and the Liberals. The Conservative party can't guarantee an election now.

We will have an election in the fall of 2009 when the Liberals bring the government down. You read about here first.

Unless Harper acts like a sociopath before then.

[Smallc]

If I were an Albertan, I would be particularly appalled by this budget. Albertans stand to get a four lane highway through the Rockies

I'm probably a great deal more excited about that than most Albertans.