Canadian Political Polls

gc1765 · September 8, 2009

If the Liberals do better in the election as a result of being strong in opposition, it is hard to think that is wrong. Don't you think?

The latest poll would suggest that's not the case.

jdobbin · September 8, 2009

The latest poll would suggest that's not the case.

And yet the pollster says himself that if the Liberals want to break free and change the dynamic, this is the way to do it.

At the moment, the numbers still look better for the Liberals than the last election.

Edited September 8, 2009 by jdobbin

gc1765 · September 8, 2009

And yet the pollster says himself that if the Liberals want to break free and change the dynamic, this is the way to do it.

Pollsters can sometimes be wrong.

jdobbin · September 8, 2009

Pollsters can sometimes be wrong.

True. Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds. It is the trend that will be interesting.

gc1765 · September 8, 2009

True. Let's see how the rest of the week unfolds. It is the trend that will be interesting.

Agreed. Although, we might not see the full effect of an early election call unless an election is actually called, and it's quite possible that one of the opposition leaders will prevent that from happening. I thought it would have been Duceppe, but then again the most recent poll has them at 49% in Quebec.

Bryan · September 8, 2009

this results suck for everyone seriously.

Those look like good numbers to me.

Smallc · September 8, 2009

The numbers are good for the Bloc.

punked · September 9, 2009

Nano's Harper is getting closer

Con - 37.5%

Lib - 33.4%

NDP - 14.8%

BQ - 9.7%

Grn - 4.6%

Not good NDP numbers, great bloc numbers.

Smallc · September 9, 2009

I think we'll find that these polls are simply people showing they don't want an election. The point spread between the two parties is still very small, closer in this poll than the last in fact.

Bryan · September 9, 2009

I think we'll find that these polls are simply people showing they don't want an election. The point spread between the two parties is still very small, closer in this poll than the last in fact.

Sure, but Nanos' poll last month showed the Liberals in the lead, and now even his numbers show the Liberal support dropping.

Actually, if you look at the chart, Nanos has had the Liberals ahead basically since the election, and even now while his numbers do show a slight drop for the Liberals, the increase for the Conservatives appears to be mostly at the expense of the NDP. That I find more confusing than anything.

Even more confusing are the gains in Quebec for the Conservatives in Nanos polling. I'd never have bet on that.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls...T-S09-T385E.pdf

Edited September 9, 2009 by Bryan

Molly · September 9, 2009

For me, not so very confusing.

This strategy shift has changed the dynamic pretty dramatically, even if the press has not directly noted it.

Layton has been handed the reins. So long as he had no levers to play with, he could posture as being passionate, principled and relevant ready to make something happen the minute real decision-making opportunity arrived.... but in recieving them, the posture has fallen apart. He looks more like a deer in the headlights, or worse, an irrelevant gnat to be slapped away by the Conservatives.

The predictability of the three opposition parties has hurt them all badly, Duceppe the least/ attention particularly paid to the hurt to Ignatief/ but I'm thinking, the NDP has been hurt most of all. From :'if you get the chance, what you think is important' to ' you have the chance, but apparently you are meaningless after all'.

Fascinating to me that it happened so quietly, a sort of body language communication, instead of discussed to death.

Keepitsimple · September 9, 2009

Two other items:

1) The "undecided" is way up

2) The Greens are disappearing

jdobbin · September 9, 2009

Sure, but Nanos' poll last month showed the Liberals in the lead, and now even his numbers show the Liberal support dropping.

The Liberal numbers have dropped all summer like most Opposition numbers do. I can still remember how Tory numbers dropped every summer when the House wasn't in session. I didn't think it accurately reflected their support then because it is when the House is in session that people are more keenly aware of all their choices.

Actually, if you look at the chart, Nanos has had the Liberals ahead basically since the election, and even now while his numbers do show a slight drop for the Liberals, the increase for the Conservatives appears to be mostly at the expense of the NDP. That I find more confusing than anything.
Even more confusing are the gains in Quebec for the Conservatives in Nanos polling. I'd never have bet on that.

We're going to have to see better regional polling.

Hard to say how much of a change there might be with such a large margins of error.

jdobbin · September 9, 2009

This strategy shift has changed the dynamic pretty dramatically, even if the press has not directly noted it.

Strategic Counsel considered the situation as the only way for the Liberals to break the logjam. The Liberals had to be seen as the main Opposition even if it meant a possible election. Now the trick for the Liberals is to try and nibble away at BQ support.

August1991 · September 9, 2009

We're going to have to see better regional polling.

Au Québec, le Bloc québécois continue de dominer avec 37,3% des intentions de vote. Le Parti libéral arrive bon deuxième avec 32,5%. Le Parti conservateur est toujours troisième, mais ses appuis ont augmenté de six points de pourcentage et se situent maintenant à 19,3?%. Au dernier scrutin, les conservateurs ont obtenu 22% des suffrages et remporté 10 des 75 sièges au Québec.

Link

I think this Nanos poll is quite accurate.

37 Conservative, 34 Liberal, 15 NDP across Canada

37 Bloc, 32 Liberal, 19 Conservative in Quebec

It is hard to see how Ignatieff can win with numbers like that, or how Harper could win a majority.

jdobbin · September 9, 2009

I think this Nanos poll is quite accurate.

You well know that the regional breakdowns are often very illuminating when bigger samples are taken from the provinces. I would not be surprised if the BQ numbers were higher with a margin of error of 7 points.

37 Conservative, 34 Liberal, 15 NDP across Canada
37 Bloc, 32 Liberal, 19 Conservative in Quebec

It is hard to see how Ignatieff can win with numbers like that, or how Harper could win a majority.

I think Ignatieff knows that he might not win. If the Liberals can do better in the election, it might be the other parties that have a leadership change first. One thing is certain: The Liberal had to stop the growth of the Greens and put NDP support down by stopping the free ride. Now, the focus can be on Opposition and an important issue to all: Spending and the deficit.

August1991 · September 9, 2009

You well know that the regional breakdowns are often very illuminating when bigger samples are taken from the provinces. I would not be surprised if the BQ numbers were higher with a margin of error of 7 points.

I agree that the Nanos sample is small but I just happen to think that it's accurate.

In particular, the Bloc is hoping for some nice splits so that it will win some seats (and hence the purpose of the ad campaign identifying Ignatieff/Harper).

I think Ignatieff knows that he might not win. If the Liberals can do better in the election, it might be the other parties that have a leadership change first. One thing is certain: The Liberal had to stop the growth of the Greens and put NDP support down by stopping the free ride. Now, the focus can be on Opposition and an important issue to all: Spending and the deficit.

Let slip the dogs of war...

Smallc · September 9, 2009

Ignatieff has to do slightly better in Quebec. Yesterday, I heard on Power Play that he can't get above 20 seats with what he currently has. They need to get in the 25 seat area, and apparently that could be difficult. Interesting that they think Pontiac is one of the seats that the Liberals might pick up.

Edited September 9, 2009 by Smallc

jdobbin · September 9, 2009

Ignatieff has to do slightly better in Quebec. Yesterday, I heard on Power Play that he can't get above 20 seats with what he currently has. They need to get in the 25 seat area, and apparently that could be difficult. Interesting that they think Pontiac is one of the seats that the Liberals might pick up.

If Harper intends to attack the BQ as separatists as the Globe and Mail states today, he could see support in Quebec plummet.

capricorn · September 9, 2009

If Harper intends to attack the BQ as separatists as the Globe and Mail states today, he could see support in Quebec plummet.

I have no idea how solid those 10 Conservatives seats in Quebec are. If he is to use the coalition against the opposition, he has no choice but to paint the Bloc as separatists. His strategy may be to go this route to increase his seat count in the ROC at the risk of losing one or two in Quebec. One thing, he knows no matter what he does or promises Quebec, he remains unpopular there. The ROC has to be his main focus.

Keepitsimple · September 9, 2009

If Harper intends to attack the BQ as separatists as the Globe and Mail states today, he could see support in Quebec plummet.

That's why he won't.

Smallc · September 9, 2009

He could see a national crisis if he does that. Many Quebecers don't see the Bloc as separatist (even if they are) and they vote for them because they are the home team. He should be careful with what he does.

jdobbin · September 9, 2009

I have no idea how solid those 10 Conservatives seats in Quebec are. If he is to use the coalition against the opposition, he has no choice but to paint the Bloc as separatists. His strategy may be to go this route to increase his seat count in the ROC at the risk of losing one or two in Quebec. One thing, he knows no matter what he does or promises Quebec, he remains unpopular there. The ROC has to be his main focus.

That seems to be what the Globe is suggesting today and what Tom Flanagan confirmed.

jdobbin · September 9, 2009

That's why he won't.

Tom Flanagan seems to confirm that is the exact strategy. You think they aren't going to label the BQ as separatists? You think the coalition angle isn't what they will push?

Keepitsimple · September 9, 2009

Tom Flanagan seems to confirm that is the exact strategy. You think they aren't going to label the BQ as separatists? You think the coalition angle isn't what they will push?

No - I don't. I think this is just a clever strategy to dupe reporters into reminding Canadians that the Liberals might still consider a coalition - no matter what the results of the election are. At least, that's how I would approach it.....as I said before, all the Conservatives have to do is keep their mouths shut (I agree, that's a tough one) but when a reporter asks about the coalition, just say "I hope it doesn't happen again but they've done it once so who's to say they won't try it again?". Let the reporters go after Ignatieff and let him say "No, never". The last I heard, Mr. Ignatieff was still saying it was an option. But all that discussion (Flanagan included) will keep it in the minds of some Canadians and overall, it's not a very popular idea.....except maybe with the NDP.

Edited September 9, 2009 by Keepitsimple