Liberal Conservative Coalition ?

[lukin]

Has anyone else heard the rumour that Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff will be meeting behind closed doors before Monday? I have a friend who is very involved in his poli sci. classes at university who told me this. He couldn't give me any real substance as to why this might happen, he just had a very smug grin on his face. It's probably just a useless rumour. I did find it interesting though, and thought I'd share it. Personally, I can't see it happening.

[Argus]

Has anyone else heard the rumour that Stephen Harper and Michael Ignatieff will be meeting behind closed doors before Monday? I have a friend who is very involved in his poli sci. classes at university who told me this. He couldn't give me any real substance as to why this might happen, he just had a very smug grin on his face. It's probably just a useless rumour. I did find it interesting though, and thought I'd share it. Personally, I can't see it happening.

There are rumors flying everywhere these days. I can't personally see any reason why they would meet, unless someone over at the Liberal Party has calmed down enough to realize the danger they're letting themselves in for, and is hoping to somehow stop this train before it goes over the edge of the cliff. The irony is that it would be very clearly and obviously in the best interest of both parties NOT to have this government replaced by a coallition. Now if we were to take it that someone wants to talk between them, Ignatieff would be a likely choice. There's too much history between Dion and Harper, too much bad blood.

[Jack Weber]

I have not heared anything about this.At this point,I don't know what good it would do because everyone's positions seem so entrenched.Having said that,Iganatieff is more of a "Blue Liberal",so he may have a slightly similar line of thinking.

[BC_chick]

Having said that,Iganatieff is more of a "Blue Liberal",so he may have a slightly similar line of thinking.

If this it true, I would think Ignatieff has less of a moral dilemma about the situation than a personal one. Nobody anticipated this much of an outrage and the repercussions may have devastating effect for the LPC... including its next leader.

[capricorn]

This is an interesting possibility. If there was ever a time for Ignatieff to score points with the electorate, this is it.

The opposition may have been pissed off at the Conservatives for the poison pill(s} slipped into the economic update but I believe the electorate is more pissed off at the opposition than they realize.

IMO Canadians are repulsed by what's happening on the Hill and are hoping someone will jump in to bring stability to Parliament.

The question is whether Ignatieff's rumoured diplomatic intervention would hurt his chances in the leadership race. He may in fact be looking at the wider picture and wish to quash further harm to the Liberal Party.

[Jack Weber]

If this it true, I would think Ignatieff has less of a moral dilemma about the situation than a personal one. Nobody anticipated this much of an outrage and the repercussions may have devastating effect for the LPC... including its next leader.

I agree.This coalition idea is seriously lacking in foresight.Frankly,the Cons will wear this economy,rightly or wrongly,and the opposition would probably have tham sent back to the Prairie's on that alone in a year and a half.The Con's have basically backed down from all of thier ideological tripe and now the opposition looks as power hungry as Mr.Harper himself.In effect,he looks much more weaker and vulnerable than he ever has.In fact,he's probably done before the next election if the opposition would just wait.

[lukin]

Let me ask this. Who would Ignatieff agree more with: Stephen Harper or Jack Layton?

Maybe being cozy with the socialist democrats doesn't sit well with Ignatieff.

[Argus]

This is an interesting possibility. If there was ever a time for Ignatieff to score points with the electorate, this is it.

Too many points. I'm not sure the other contenders over there want to basically hand him the leadership, which is, I think, what a successful "diplomatic mission" would probably do for him. Plus, this would give him a huge boost over Harper in the next election, even a year down the road. That would be a reason why the Tories would not want to go for it.

Which is worse, letting this nightmarish coallition take control for six months and then likely collapse in a fiery train wreck, or face an empowered Ignatieff who had already earned the respect and admiration of the people for averting a constitutional government mess in a time of crisis? I could see Ignatieff getting a majority in that case.

If Harper really wants to see the Liberals destroyed he should simply let this coallition form, stand back, and watch. On the other hand, he loves power, and it would be a cold victory to watch them fall apart a year or so after he left politics after a devastating defeat. I think if Ignatieff approached them and made a reasonable offer the Tories would go for it.

On the other hand, such an approach would be made in complete secrecy so I can't see how some guy in a poli sci class would have heard about it.

[Argus]

Let me ask this. Who would Ignatieff agree more with: Stephen Harper or Jack Layton?

Maybe being cozy with the socialist democrats doesn't sit well with Ignatieff.

There are certain points in which he is diametrically opposed to Layton and the BQ. For example, suppose, despite this "agreement", Layton and Duceppe decide, after some notoriously bad combat casualties, say, that Canada must leave Afghanistan early. They insist. I don't see him going along with it. I could even, if he has the courage of his convictions, see him and enough of his supporters voting against that and with the Tories despite what Dion may say to scuttle any such move.

Of course, that assumes he has the courage of his convictions. Not many Liberals seem to. That's one of the reasons the party is in such trouble; it doesn't seem to stand for anything but whatever the polls tell them might be popular with the right segment groups.

[lukin]

I think Ignatieff is more Conservative than what we know.

[ThatGuy]

Well, I mean, if Iggy controls 13 seats worth of Liberals, they could float the Tories through a budget.

[capricorn]

Maybe being cozy with the socialist democrats doesn't sit well with Ignatieff.

I think he has a bigger animosity toward the Bloc than the NDP. If Ignatieff wins the leadership (which I think he will), he would inherit the coalition. Here's part of his speech at the Liberal Convention on Thursday 3 March 2005.

So what are the fundamentals to me? As I see it, the Liberal party has 3 essential purposes. The first, to protect and to enhance the national unity of our country.

-----

Other parties will claim that they want a strong Canada too, and god knows we have no monopoly on patriotism, but what makes this party distinctive is that we have the discipline, the burden, of office. We know that to govern is to choose. We understand that no party can remain in office, endure in office, if it pretends to be all things to all people. Liberals know that there are times in politics, and they try our souls as a people and they try our souls as a party, when politics means saying a clear no, and a clear yes. So my friends, the word is 'no', no to national division, no to the nationalist blackmail, no to the mean spirited gaze of the Block Quebecois. No, no, to the false utopia of the Separatists, no to separatism, no, no, forever. But my friends, yes, a big yes, yes to the renewal of federalism, yes to the updating of our national institutions, yes to Canada.

http://www.goodreads.ca/lectures/ignatieff/

No to the mean spirited gaze of the Bloc. No to the false utopia of the separatists. Those are Iggy's words. If we are to believe what he said, the prospect of working with the Bloc must sicken him.

[cybercoma]

Well, I mean, if Iggy controls 13 seats worth of Liberals, they could float the Tories through a budget.

There could be 13 cases of MPs from the Liberal Party catching the flu on Monday. That would be amusing.

[M.Dancer]

If you bear with me, Iggy is barely Canadian so it stands he is barely a Liberal. That being said, the Liberal party part of him wants to lead the Liberal party....but perhaps just barely,

[August1991]

Bourque has this posted now:

Finally, a sign of sanity. Better late than never. A first serious sign of leadership from the presumptive leader-in-waiting. Senior Ignatieff insiders are tantalizingly whispering to Bourque that the Toronto MP is having grave doubts about supporting the shocking Dion coalition bid, now labelled by many as the "Separatist Coalition", given the defining support it has from both the BQ's Gilles Duceppe and former PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau. One longtime senior Ignatieff backer, under condition of anonymity, confided that "Michael is in a tenuous situation and he is feeling a lot of heat from caucus colleagues and constituents alike. Frankly, we think we got snookered by Bob Rae on this one".

I imagine that Ignatieff might want to ask Harper to offer a fig leaf to the Liberal opposition so that they can all get out of this mess and carry on as before. Then, Ignatieff can go on to win the Liberal leadership and rebuild the Liberal party without this toxic odour of NDP/Bloc on its clothing.

Ignatieff might argue that this coalition is bad for National Unity or some such.

-----

Incidentally, and along these lines, I liked the response of Marois to this "crisis" in Ottawa (as well as the older Parizeau quote):

Alors qu'il y a une crise politique importante à Ottawa, Pauline Marois veut profiter de la situation pour devancer son agenda référendaire pour sortir du Canada. Ainsi elle a déclaré : "On voit bien que ce pays-là, il ne fonctionne pas (...) la seule solution c'est de sortir de là, c'est de choisir notre souveraineté".

....

D'ailleurs cette déclaration confirme qu'elle suit la même recette que Jacques Parizeau qui déclarait au journal Le Soleil le 19 janvier 1991 : "Un gouvernement plus faible à Ottawa fait éminemment mon affaire. Les souverainistes n'ont pas intérêt à ce qu'un grand nombre de gens regardent encore Ottawa comme un gouvernement stable sérieux. Il faut que l'image projetée soit celle d'un gouvernement faible, désorienté, et qui va l'être plus encore dans l'avenir. Ca c'est parfait".

Link

I wonder whether Duceppe did this in part merely to stir things up.

Edited December 3, 2008 by August1991

[jdobbin]

One possibility that hasn't been considered:

Harper asking the Liberals to join a coalition aimed at keeping the BQ out of the governing process and the NDP out of the coalition.

The deal would place a certain amount of Liberals in cabinet and would last two years. Certain hotspot issues would be left for another day while the economy took precedence.

[Smallc]

Is this just made up of is there actual rumblings of this? I would probably be in favour of such a thing if true and in fact I can't think of a better scenario. Both the Liberals and Harper would have a lot of egg on their faces though.

[blueblood]

One possibility that hasn't been considered:

Harper asking the Liberals to join a coalition aimed at keeping the BQ out of the governing process and the NDP out of the coalition.

The deal would place a certain amount of Liberals in cabinet and would last two years. Certain hotspot issues would be left for another day while the economy took precedence.

If Harper and tory brass hadn't started beating the war drums and launched their media blitzkrieg, I'd probably agree with this possibility. Had Harper kept his trap shut and approached Ignatieff with this plan, I could see it working. But since Harper put his war helmet on, Harper would look like a fool and a hypocrite for entertaining this thought.

It's been mentioned on here Ignatieff is secretly having a bird. He could screw the Liberal coalition over, and order x amount of Liberal MP's to catch "red fever" and be sick for the vote. Iggy would look real good to grass roots Liberals at the convention and would really screw Bob Rae and Leblanc over.

[Smallc]

Maybe he'll cross the floor?

[jdobbin]

Is this just made up of is there actual rumblings of this? I would probably be in favour of such a thing if true and in fact I can't think of a better scenario. Both the Liberals and Harper would have a lot of egg on their faces though.

Just off the top of my head but when I go back into the meeting with Ignatieff, Leblanc and Rae, I will mention it to them.

[Smallc]

Just off the top of my head but when I go back into the meeting with Ignatieff, Leblanc and Rae, I will mention it to them.

Thanks, that would be so appreciated.

[blueblood]

Maybe he'll cross the floor?

No, not cross the floor. I could see him make a public statement saying because of public opinion he can't support the coalition and would outright win the Liberal Leadership race. If he crossed the floor, he kisses his Leadership bit goodbye.

[BC_chick]

Maybe he'll cross the floor?

Doubt it, he wants to be prime minister.

[jdobbin]

It's been mentioned on here Ignatieff is secretly having a bird. He could screw the Liberal coalition over, and order x amount of Liberal MP's to catch "red fever" and be sick for the vote. Iggy would look real good to grass roots Liberals at the convention and would really screw Bob Rae and Leblanc over.

I think the Tories would call the election right then and there to take advantage of the divide. They would blame the Liberals and say they couldn't govern with the knife at their throats.

If Harper was smart, he might try negotiation. It doesn't seem to be in his DNA.

[August1991]

One possibility that hasn't been considered:

Harper asking the Liberals to join a coalition aimed at keeping the BQ out of the governing process and the NDP out of the coalition.

At this juncture, it is more likely that about 10 or 15 Liberals will simply not show up to vote on Monday and the confidence motion will pass.

IOW, they will reject the direction that Dion (and Rae) have taken the Liberal Party, realizing that a coalition giving cabinet seats to the NDP and veto power to the Bloc makes the Liberals toxic for many average, rank-and-file Liberal voters.

It is going to require complex spin to explain to these Liberal voters how this coalition is the right thing to do.

The typical argument against the Bloc (and the NDP) is that they can never accomplish anything because they can never form a government. Well, Dion has just explicitly removed that argument by giving both direct access to power.

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ETA: I just saw this post above:

It's been mentioned on here Ignatieff is secretly having a bird. He could screw the Liberal coalition over, and order x amount of Liberal MP's to catch "red fever" and be sick for the vote. Iggy would look real good to grass roots Liberals at the convention and would really screw Bob Rae and Leblanc over.

I agree but I don't think Ignatieff would do this to screw Rae or Leblanc. Ignatieff can see the long term consequences of this coalition - aftrer all, he may have to live with them. Edited December 3, 2008 by August1991